Pennsylvania Conducting a Recount of Casey-McCormick Senate Race

7,350 Views | 72 Replies | Last: 7 days ago by Noctilucent
Mark Stoops
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4 said:

Oh look.

Pennsylvania is counting votes a week after the election is over and a Democrat is magically coming from behind to eek out a win.

Who would have thought?


Funny how situations like this, would should not have any statistical bias by its very nature, seems to almost always break the same way. Weird, huh? Almost like that's not how probability works.
JWinTX
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You can't just find 30.000 votes for someone. Coleman lost because the numbers were easy to find in a blue state like Minnesota. PA is purple as we just saw with Trump winning there again for the 2nd time.
4stringAg
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AG
Harmeet Dhillon has her lawyers on the ground there so this isn't going unchallenged by the Republicans.
FTAG 2000
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AG
4stringAg said:

Harmeet Dhillon has her lawyers on the ground there so this isn't going unchallenged by the Republicans.

Problem is the SOS is on team blue and will put his hand on the scale until they get the result they want.
AggieUSMC
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AG
Quote:

We've all seen this before. Dino Rossi in Washington and Norm Coleman will Minnesota will tell you how this kind of thing usually turns out for the Republican.
The 2004 Washington gubernatorial election and 2008 Minnesota senate election had a 215 and 261 vote initial margin respectively. Not the current 26k+vote margin in this election. The dems can't fraud their way out of a deficit that big.
AggieUSMC
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AG
https://fairvote.org/report/election-recounts-2024/

Quote:

Out of the 6,929 statewide general elections between 2000 and 2023, there were 36 statewide recounts.
Quote:

Recounts resulted in only three reversals, or one out of every 2,310 statewide elections. All three reversals occurred when the initial margin was less than 0.06% of all votes cast for the top two candidates. The last statewide recount reversal was the 2008 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota.
Quote:

Statewide recounts resulted in an average margin shift of 551 votes between the frontrunners, representing 0.03% of the vote. Recounts typically widen the gap between the top two candidates instead of decreasing it.
Casey ain't winning this
aggie93
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29k is a LOT of votes to cheat on for a recount. It's exceedingly rare a recount changes more than a few hundred votes and usually not that many. GOP just needs to make sure they are lawyered up and fighting this tooth and nail.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
Belton Ag
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AG
FTAG 2000 said:

4stringAg said:

Harmeet Dhillon has her lawyers on the ground there so this isn't going unchallenged by the Republicans.

Problem is the SOS is on team blue and will put his hand on the scale until they get the result they want.


If Dhillon and her team are involved with the recount, they won't be able to conjure up 30,000 fake votes. They're not only going to have to fake 30,000 ballots for Casey, they'd also need to fake another 28,000 or so for McCormick to make it look remotely believable. It's just too much to overcome.

Honestly the automatic recount trigger for a statewide election for a state with the population of Pennsylvania needs to be higher than .5%.
jamieboy2014
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AG
FTAG 2000 said:

4stringAg said:

Harmeet Dhillon has her lawyers on the ground there so this isn't going unchallenged by the Republicans.

Problem is the SOS is on team blue and will put his hand on the scale until they get the result they want.
https://fairvote.org/report/election-recounts-2024/

Quote:

Quote:
Out of the 6,929 statewide general elections between 2000 and 2023, there were 36 statewide recounts.
Quote:

Quote:
Recounts resulted in only three reversals, or one out of every 2,310 statewide elections. All three reversals occurred when the initial margin was less than 0.06% of all votes cast for the top two candidates. The last statewide recount reversal was the 2008 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota.
Quote:

Quote:
Statewide recounts resulted in an average margin shift of 551 votes between the frontrunners, representing 0.03% of the vote. Recounts typically widen the gap between the top two candidates instead of decreasing it.
Not gonna happen.

samurai_science
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aggiehawg
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AG
Here is where I remind everyone that Josh Shapiro was PA state AG in 2020 who looked the other way on election fraud in 2020.

Now he's Governor with a Dem heavy state supreme court. There are a lot of ways this can go. And the actual law be damned.
nortex97
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AG
Skimmed this thread so sorry if I missed it, but I am surprised none of the posters/commentariat have somehow blamed this on Trump.
AtticusMatlock
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Race has now been called by DDHQ for McCormick, joining Fox and the AP.
C@LAg
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aggiehawg
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Told everybody. The law be damned. They have no fear of being held accountable, ever.
nortex97
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"Laws don't matter. If I break it, I just want a court to pay attention to it."

Never, ever vote for a democrat. This is who and what they are.
AtticusMatlock
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I assume GOP will be filing for an emergency injunction against Bucks if they haven't already.
CDUB98
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AG
C@LAg said:


It's (D)ifferent.
aggiehawg
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AtticusMatlock said:

I assume GOP will be filing an emergency injunction against Bucks if they haven't already.
Once all of the ballots get intermingled, and sorting them all out again takes a lot of time, if it is even doable. Same thing the PA Sec of State did in 2020 even with Justice Alito commanding her not to do so. Did it anyway.
Tailgate88
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AG
aggiehawg said:

AtticusMatlock said:

I assume GOP will be filing an emergency injunction against Bucks if they haven't already.
Once all of the ballots get intermingled, and sorting them all out again takes a lot of time, if it is even doable. Same thing the PA Sec of State did in 2020 even with Justice Alito commanding her not to do so. Did it anyway.
Why are there no consequences? The Supreme Court has no enforcement power? (I honestly don't know.) Can't they hold them in contempt or send a federal marshal over there to arrest them or something?
Ellis Wyatt
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aggiehawg said:

AtticusMatlock said:

I assume GOP will be filing an emergency injunction against Bucks if they haven't already.
Once all of the ballots get intermingled, and sorting them all out again takes a lot of time, if it is even doable. Same thing the PA Sec of State did in 2020 even with Justice Alito commanding her not to do so. Did it anyway.
They'll never be able to sort them out once they are co-mingled. That's obviously the plan. America does not have the stomach to throw out all the votes.
FTAG 2000
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Where's a good local resistance when you need one?
aggiehawg
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Tailgate88 said:

aggiehawg said:

AtticusMatlock said:

I assume GOP will be filing an emergency injunction against Bucks if they haven't already.
Once all of the ballots get intermingled, and sorting them all out again takes a lot of time, if it is even doable. Same thing the PA Sec of State did in 2020 even with Justice Alito commanding her not to do so. Did it anyway.
Why are there no consequences? The Supreme Court has no enforcement power? (I honestly don't know.) Can't they hold them in contempt or send a federal marshal over there to arrest them or something?
No. SCOTUS has no enforcement power. It is up to Executive Branch (both state and federal) to enforce their rulings.

As I said before, Josh Shapiro was PA AG. He sure as hell was never going to try to enforce Alito's order. Neither was Barr.
nortex97
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The suit was filed over 5 hours ago folks, by McCormick and the GOP. There are plenty of inflammatory tweets out there, but keep in mind this is over less than 405 undated ballots.

The left is throwing this temper tantrum because they know the math isn't on their side, and trolls are happy to finally stir up conservatives with the silliness/reports.
Quote:

The suit says the decision to count the ballots is "legally erroneous" because the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that undated or misdated mail ballots are invalid and cannot be counted for the 2024 election.

It notes that other counties have decided to not count misdated mail ballots.
The Bucks County elections board voted 2-1 during a meeting Tuesday to count the 405 misdated ballots, the suit says.

The race between McCormick and Casey is so close that it has triggered a mandatory recount under Pennsylvania law, the department of state announced Wednesday.
doubledog
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Tailgate88 said:

aggiehawg said:

AtticusMatlock said:

I assume GOP will be filing an emergency injunction against Bucks if they haven't already.
Once all of the ballots get intermingled, and sorting them all out again takes a lot of time, if it is even doable. Same thing the PA Sec of State did in 2020 even with Justice Alito commanding her not to do so. Did it anyway.
Why are there no consequences? The Supreme Court has no enforcement power? (I honestly don't know.) Can't they hold them in contempt or send a federal marshal over there to arrest them or something?
SCOTUS can stop the recount/count at any time (see 2000 Florida).
aggiehawg
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AG
Quote:

SCOTUS can stop the recount/count at any time (see 2000 Florida).
Not until the state supreme court has ruled first.
Houston Lee
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What is going to be fun is that Trump's DOJ can go after that lady and investigate the crap out of her. She wants the attention of the court? She can get it and her legal fees can bankrupt her. Just like Biden's DOJ did to many people. Have fun!
AtticusMatlock
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If I'm not mistaken they've held contempt trials in the past, although we're talking over a century ago.
Houston Lee
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Kind of funny that despite the recount, Decision Desk has finally called the PA Senate race to the GOP.

Larry Hagman
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some yall ever get tired of the endless conspiracy GOP won
jamieboy2014
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AG
aggiehawg said:

AtticusMatlock said:

I assume GOP will be filing an emergency injunction against Bucks if they haven't already.
Once all of the ballots get intermingled, and sorting them all out again takes a lot of time, if it is even doable. Same thing the PA Sec of State did in 2020 even with Justice Alito commanding her not to do so. Did it anyway.
In that case, if I'm McCormick, I refuse to leave the Senate. If Dems ignore the rule of law, let the GOP ignore their fake results.
BTHOB
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AG
McCormick lead down to ~17k now. So much for recounts only resulting in minimal changes to the original tabulations…
nortex97
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Casey even being called out by the CCP WaPo.

ts5641
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This is a guaranteed **** job! Republicans never win recounts. Never.
FTAG 2000
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nortex97 said:

Casey even being called out by the CCP WaPo.




Come on Mike Lee. It's pretty damn clear that Casey isn't better than this.
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