This AZ district 6 house race is dead even, Eastwood threw a wrench into that one:
*****OFFICIAL 2024 ELECTION DAY THREAD*****
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Last: 11 hrs ago by AtticusMatlock
Doesn't California still have like 5 million to 'count?'
The polling ranking based on final polls is one thing. Atlas Intel and Rasmussen were great there.
But even more interesting is that those two pollsters did not vary much over the course of the last 4 or 5 months, while the pro-democrat polls had Kamala up and were changing, sometimes a lot, to favor Harris. They are push pollsters. Then they come back to reality at the end so they don't look quite as bad, but still are shifted blue. Atlas Intel and Rasmussen had Trump up by 1-3 points virtually the whole time.
Just more proof that most of these blue leaning pollsters use their polls as a political weapon.
But even more interesting is that those two pollsters did not vary much over the course of the last 4 or 5 months, while the pro-democrat polls had Kamala up and were changing, sometimes a lot, to favor Harris. They are push pollsters. Then they come back to reality at the end so they don't look quite as bad, but still are shifted blue. Atlas Intel and Rasmussen had Trump up by 1-3 points virtually the whole time.
Just more proof that most of these blue leaning pollsters use their polls as a political weapon.
That tracks with every swing state.
I know Ciscomani. He is a wonderful family man and very conservative. Truly hopes he pulls this out.
AZ 6 includes Pima County / Tucson. Unfortunately many of the remaining ballots to be counted are there and he's running way behind in that county. If they are using a "first in first counted" approach to counting he's got a shot, but if the ED vote is already in and we are just doing the mail stuff he might have some trouble down the stretch.
There's always the wrench of "mail" ballots being dropped of at polling sites on election day which does favor GOP. Opaque as to how many that number may be.
Going to be down to the wire. Right now it's probably a lean Dem win but we'll see.
There's always the wrench of "mail" ballots being dropped of at polling sites on election day which does favor GOP. Opaque as to how many that number may be.
Going to be down to the wire. Right now it's probably a lean Dem win but we'll see.
NE 2 update:
So a total of 14,835. We should see about half of that counted and made public today.
- Should be seeing a post of about 6,675 mail ballots by "4 or 5pm"
- There are still 5,560 provisional ballots. These are ballots filled out by voters who didn't have ID with them at the time of voting or mail ballots with mismatched signatures. Voters have until Tuesday to bring an ID to confirm their ballot. This is the same process Texas uses, btw.
- 2,600 "resolution" ballots. These are ballots the machines could not read due to stray marks, crossed out selections, a misread, etc. Adjudicated by bipartisan teams, ballots duplicated by hand and put into the machine.
So a total of 14,835. We should see about half of that counted and made public today.
Understatement of the year.Quote:
Opaque as to how many that number may be.
And that is a feature not a bug in AZ.
Elon Musk built an app specifically for election night that ran incoming results through an algorithm based on what was coming in and outstanding.
— piercheney (@LVpolitic) November 8, 2024
He knew the results of the election 4 hours before the news networks.
As soon as his app called the election for Trump, he told…
Not sure if this is true but wouldn't surprise me with Elon.
Wouldn't be surprised in the leastif Elon did that. Just like news organizations, he could pay for the NYT and Edison feeds, get the JSON data, plot it and get an extremely accurate picture as to the state of race in real time.
Ugh. Disgusting.OnlyForNow said:
You should have Zombie JS look at Fort Bend County.
Campaigns always have their own data people who are usually paid better and have more ground-based information than the media. They have people in every city (sometimes precinct level) reporting back to them in real time with turnout data. The Trump campaign likely knew Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Milwaukee turnout level to an almost exact level.
They didn't have to wait on reported results because they knew what was being plugged in. Likely Harris knew she lost a few hours before it was called, too. The mood started to turn sour in DC around 11p ET long before many of the key races were called.
They didn't have to wait on reported results because they knew what was being plugged in. Likely Harris knew she lost a few hours before it was called, too. The mood started to turn sour in DC around 11p ET long before many of the key races were called.
Rogan mentioned this on his episode with Theo Von that came out earlier today. He said he was texting Tulsi and JD Vance throughout the evening, so it's probably true.
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
maroon man said:
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
They have called Arizona for Trump.
BEAUTIFUL need to frame it or make it my background
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
FbgTxAg said:spider96 said:
They're not even a state. Shouldn't have electoral votes at all.
Trump should just sell Washington D.C. to Six Flags and move the Government to Tulsa.
Turn Oklahoma Blue
LOL OLD
Nevada is a lost cause for senate. Rosen lead is growing.
Unfortunately the GOP decided they didn't feel like spending money there for the Senate race or in AZ. A lot of Brown and Lake money came from riding the coattails of Trump and not from the Senate campaign arm.
Despite a clear Red Wave environment once again the GOP vastly underperformed in Congressional races.
Yeah, some of the house races were due to extensive gerrymandering but can't help but be frustrated the GOP left a ton on the table.
Unfortunately the GOP decided they didn't feel like spending money there for the Senate race or in AZ. A lot of Brown and Lake money came from riding the coattails of Trump and not from the Senate campaign arm.
Despite a clear Red Wave environment once again the GOP vastly underperformed in Congressional races.
Yeah, some of the house races were due to extensive gerrymandering but can't help but be frustrated the GOP left a ton on the table.
Liberal, white woman before and after November 5...
...blaming the loss on racism and misogyny. Doesn't have a clue.
This is “political analyst” & former poly-sci professor Dr. Arlene who brainwashed hundreds of thousands of people on TT into thinking Harris would win.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2024
On Nov 5th, she told a story about how she taunted a grocery store worker about how Harris was 100% going to win
On Nov 6th,… pic.twitter.com/NbVhQ6uftx
...blaming the loss on racism and misogyny. Doesn't have a clue.
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
Pima County posted 15,034 votes in the US Senate contest. Gallego net 1,213 from it.
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 8, 2024
Gallego 52.7%
Lake 44.6%
Gallego leads Lake by 40,889.
Pima estimates 106k ballots are outstanding.
This includes 7.6k provisionals.
Updated count based on extrapolation from latest drops:
New extrapolation at latest drop percentages....
Lake Deficit -41K
Maricopa +76K (449K remaining @17%margin)
Pima -9K (106K remaining @ 8%margin)
Yavapai +36K(59K remaining @ 61%margin)
Mohave +4k (10.5K remaining @ 41%margin)
Cochise +1K (35K remaining @ 3%margin)
Coconino -2K (6K remaining @30%)
= Lake +65K
The margin of votes for Gallego in Pima went way down.
The failure of her smug, elitist ass may be my favorite of all.
Was thinking about this from the 2016 election. Not sure which thread to post. They really gave him no chance.
This should be the end of the road for Mitch as leader of the Senate and the rest should insist that whoever takes over for him not be a never trumper like Thune.AtticusMatlock said:
Nevada is a lost cause for senate. Rosen lead is growing.
Unfortunately the GOP decided they didn't feel like spending money there for the Senate race or in AZ. A lot of Brown and Lake money came from riding the coattails of Trump and not from the Senate campaign arm.
Despite a clear Red Wave environment once again the GOP vastly underperformed in Congressional races.
Yeah, some of the house races were due to extensive gerrymandering but can't help but be frustrated the GOP left a ton on the table.
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
Gosh I wish I could see her face the next time she checks out at that grocery store.
rocky the dog said:
All right, psychedelics
McCormick's lead just grew after another ballot drop.
37,400 and change.
37,400 and change.
Thank you for posting this video, I've been looking for it since Wednesday!
So, what's up with the NYT not calling Nevada and Arizona for Trump yet?
Looks like she has a thyroidectomy scar. Maybe she needs to have her thyroid hormone levels checked to see if that's what's interfering with her mental acuity. Or not. Don't care.
Ha ha ha ha! Bye bye! Hahaha!
Ha ha ha ha! Bye bye! Hahaha!
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Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
We can thank McConnell for not spending money in Nevada.AtticusMatlock said:
Nevada is a lost cause for senate. Rosen lead is growing.
Unfortunately the GOP decided they didn't feel like spending money there for the Senate race or in AZ. A lot of Brown and Lake money came from riding the coattails of Trump and not from the Senate campaign arm.
Despite a clear Red Wave environment once again the GOP vastly underperformed in Congressional races.
Yeah, some of the house races were due to extensive gerrymandering but can't help but be frustrated the GOP left a ton on the table.
Not spending money in Arizona actually is understandable because Lake was always polling well behind, sometimes double digits. (Yes, I know how the results currently look, but this post is about where the GOP was spending $$$ before the election.)
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
I still can't tell.
Talk about close.
Ok, I went back and combed through @Garrett_Archer
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 8, 2024
's Maricopa drop announcements. Seems like @charliekirk11 is correct, they seem to get redder as time goes on:
Nov 10 2022 - @karilake 45.1@katiehobbs 54.8
Nov 11 2022 - @KariLake 46@katiehobbs 54
Nov 12 2022 - @KariLake…
Arizona - Pima batch drop:
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 8, 2024
🔴 Lake +1271 (54.64%)
🔵 Gallego +1022 (43.94%)
County totals for Pima
🔴 Lake votes: 146307 -> 147578
🔵 Gallego votes: 234968 -> 235990
Total votes for Pima: 391086 -> 393412
BREAKING: Kari Lake had another good mail-in drop.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 8, 2024
She requires 52.8% of the remaining ballots to win narrowly. https://t.co/ZYvijgLesX pic.twitter.com/DTnlokMK7v
Talk about close.
At this rate Arizona won't even have time to do a recount before the new senate needs to get sworn in
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