A is A said:2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
What am I missing here?
And his error bars on the turnout number represent something like 150-200k votes.BowSowy said:He's using a self-reported sample size of 571 peopleaggietony2010 said:vwbug said:85% of the 2020 turnout in Philly as of 12:30. I'm feeling calm about PA and MI https://t.co/O9OOcgjhpO pic.twitter.com/Bhl4smrUwZ
— Onion Knight (@CaseycVT) November 5, 2024Philly says #LFG. "Voter turnout is extremely high,” said Philadelphia Democratic Party Chairman Robert Brady, the former congressman. “I’ve been doing elections for 50 years chair and I’ve been chairman for 40 years and now it’s the highest we’ve ever seen for this point."
— David Shuster (@DavidShuster) November 5, 2024
That turnout graph is not real data. It's modeled from crowd sourced data.
What is surprising is that it was polling at an RCP average of Trump+8...Leander said:
This isn't surprising. Many GOP voters moved there over the past 4 years. It's essentially the GOP version of Colorado.
Quote:
GOP lead is back up to just under 44,000 ballots, but now below 4 percent (3.7 percent). Caveat: Clark numbers are ahead of Washoe and rurals, so may be a little bigger.
It's hard to get a handle on what these numbers mean until we get a sense of the number of mail ballots out there.
But keep an eye on the rural firewall. It's at almost 58,000 now, could get above 60,000. Suppose Trump is getting 80 percent of those -- I don't think it will be that high, but maybe. There will be about 40,000 indies in the rurals, and he will get about two-thirds at least, I'd say. So: Trump winning the rurals by 75,000-80,000 seems right.
I saw that too, but I figured it was just a red hat.Gyles Marrett said:General Jack D. Ripper said:I don't see it. What is it?2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
MAGA hat on a white dude staying with his black friends is what I see.
Nevada is meaningless if he wins AZ, GA, NC and just one blue wall (Wisconsin more likely than Michigan). Can lose all three blue walls and still get to 270 with Nevada+New Hampshire- those may both be really really close.Who?mikejones! said:
If trump loses Pennsylvania he will need to win every swing state (ga, NC, az, Nevada) plus
1 outta 3 of Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin
Or
New Hampshire
And cannot lose any other swing state, and definitely not Iowa.
Legend said:
FWIW, turnout in Philly in 2020 was 66% of registered voters.
In 2022 (not presidential year obviously), it was 43%
90% seems impossible.
https://phillyvotes-historical-results.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html
EDIT: I see 90% turnout was meant to mean 90% of 2020 vote, not of registered votes. But still. A data point.
White dude with a MAGA hat smiling with his African American friends in line waiting to vote...No Spin Ag said:A is A said:2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
What am I missing here?
Ditto.
It is a place working folks can take elderly people for care while they are working.Definitely Not A Cop said:Who?mikejones! said:JUST IN: Potential voter fraud scheme under investigation in Denver, CO after ballots with mismatched signatures addressed to the same Denver adult daycare center were submitted to multiple counties.
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 5, 2024
What is going on in Denver? What is Jena Griswold doing? pic.twitter.com/V7LtDtJiSb
What's an adult daycare center?
Three dudes standing together and seem to be enjoying a conversation... One of them is a white dude with a MAGA hat on, the other two are African American.General Jack D. Ripper said:I don't see it. What is it?2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
You'll have to trust me on this one, but this means zilch.Chef Elko said:
Not sure what to make of it but $DJT tanked and was halted not too long ago. Trading is back up but the stock hasn't recovered much. Betting markets seem to be moving more towards Trump though.
Very busy at my polling precinct here.FireAg said:
Rs lead Ds by 1.15M votes cast in FL...
General Jack D. Ripper said:I saw that too, but I figured it was just a red hat.Gyles Marrett said:General Jack D. Ripper said:I don't see it. What is it?2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
MAGA hat on a white dude staying with his black friends is what I see.
A is A said:2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
What am I missing here?
txags92 said:It is a place working folks can take elderly people for care while they are working.Definitely Not A Cop said:Who?mikejones! said:JUST IN: Potential voter fraud scheme under investigation in Denver, CO after ballots with mismatched signatures addressed to the same Denver adult daycare center were submitted to multiple counties.
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 5, 2024
What is going on in Denver? What is Jena Griswold doing? pic.twitter.com/V7LtDtJiSb
What's an adult daycare center?
McInnis 03 said:You'll have to trust me on this one, but this means zilch.Chef Elko said:
Not sure what to make of it but $DJT tanked and was halted not too long ago. Trading is back up but the stock hasn't recovered much. Betting markets seem to be moving more towards Trump though.
This is the fake tracker they're using to claim big turnout in Philly. Anyone can fill this in. Just make up your ward and precinct and say you voted.
— Mark Gustav (@MarcusGustavus) November 5, 2024
Fill this out to make their numbers look absolutely absurd. Please RT.https://t.co/f6nKdzNn1M
Major states whose polls close at 7PM ET:
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Georgia, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida.
WATCH them. New Hampshire being close = Harris is done.
VA looking like 2016 = Harris is likely done.
Watch DUVAL COUNTY, FL for indications of how Georgia may go.
GA should be a safe 5-8 point win.
— Still want Harmeet leading the GOP (@crlegalfunding) November 5, 2024
If he wins NH, I'm going to bed early...Who?mikejones! said:
Yes. That's why I was saying earlier that the first shoe to drop will be north Carolina
Then, the big shoe will be PA.
Depending on how those go will determine whether Nevada really matters.
I suppose we must also pay attention to new Hampshire now. But. I'd wager if trump wins new Hampshire, there really shouldn't be a worry anymore.
I wonder if they have STD problems like nursing homes?Definitely Not A Cop said:txags92 said:It is a place working folks can take elderly people for care while they are working.Definitely Not A Cop said:Who?mikejones! said:JUST IN: Potential voter fraud scheme under investigation in Denver, CO after ballots with mismatched signatures addressed to the same Denver adult daycare center were submitted to multiple counties.
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 5, 2024
What is going on in Denver? What is Jena Griswold doing? pic.twitter.com/V7LtDtJiSb
What's an adult daycare center?
Way less fun than what I was thinking.
vwbug said:
I hope I'm wrong, just don't trust the Dems ... at all.
4stringAg said:
Guys I logged off for a while and missed like 500 posts, where are things right now in PA?
aggiehawg said:
Ralston went all in on the Reid Machine delivering Clark County in a very large fashion, yesterday.
Now he has to hedge that a bit. Could still happen but looking increasingly unlikely to be large enough.
However, the Nevada state supreme court decision allowing mail in ballots without any chain of custody (the postmark) for another three provides Dems with another chance to stuff the ballot box so to speak.
Three young men, two black with Trump gear on in downtown PhillyA is A said:2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
What am I missing here?
No Spin Ag said:A is A said:2023NCAggies said:Spotted in Philadelphia.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Do you see it?
pic.twitter.com/teKGC1iWYR
What am I missing here?
Ditto.
