*****OFFICIAL 2024 ELECTION DAY THREAD*****

1,103,579 Views | 8901 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by AtticusMatlock
aggietony2010
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AG
Go away troll.
Sea Speed
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NPH- said:

Hungry Ojos said:

vwbug said:

Not a good sign in Pennysylvania for Trump. Ugh, buckle up.


This should be an auto perma-ban. Just ridiculous.
Seriously, I hope mods look at this. No different than a Chicago-style drive-by shooting.


You have to flag it to make a difference
BurnetAggie99
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Yukon Cornelius said:

The country was birthed at Philadelphia and it will live or die there again tonight.
Also the United States Marines was formed in Philly at Tun Tavern.
agjacent
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Quo Vadis? said:

agjacent said:

JB99 said:

Here's an interesting data points. Because the margin going into election day is so much narrower in PA they are saying Kamala needs 700k in Philly. Problem is Biden only got 600k in 2020 and Hillary only got 560k.
Philly is currently projected to have more turnout today than it did in 2020. Like. A lot more.
I've heard this is based off some guys spreadsheet bogus numbers that are crowdsourced
I don't think the state releases a count as the day goes on, no live tracker or anything like that. So all you have are people self-reporting their ballot numbers. Apparently this method is decently accurate, but not spot-on, obviously. And since it's just some dude keeping track on some rinky-dink website, it's currently down. But yes, projections based on that had turnout at around 90%.
rgag12
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I'll believe it when I see it in regards to Philly.

The rest of the country is giving Kamala a decidedly big "MEH", but yet she got Philly to come out in record fashion? Not buying it unless actual data comes out. Not models.
FireAg
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Alonzo James White said:

PA is it, not sur he pulls Wisc or MI
Welcome, rookie...based on what exactly?

I smell sock-troll...
Gyles Marrett
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agjacent said:

FireAg said:

agjacent said:

JB99 said:

Here's an interesting data points. Because the margin going into election day is so much narrower in PA they are saying Kamala needs 700k in Philly. Problem is Biden only got 600k in 2020 and Hillary only got 560k.
Philly is currently projected to have more turnout today than it did in 2020. Like. A lot more.
Says who?

Reports from PA have noted that there don't seem to be long wait times in several blue counties...
I don't think there's a way to get an exact number. Like, the state itself isn't publishing it. But there's a website where people can self-report their voter number - I guess when you go vote in your precinct, your ballot is numbered and the higher the number, the more people before you have voted? Anyway, according to this estimate:

The website is down now, but the last update I saw had the projected Philly voter turnout (based on the self-reported numbers up to whenever the site pooped out) at approaching 90%. There are 1.2M registered voters in Philly. That kind of turnout would mean something like 1.1M votes. I think the typical Dem percentage in Philly is in the high 80s? Which would mean Harris getting around 900,000 votes from Philly alone.


Joe got like what 650k votes in Philly in an election that was a massive record number of votes and were supposed to believe from some Democrat clown on X that she's going to shatter than number when everyone else is reporting low D turnout and basically no wait times? Yeah ok lol
oh no
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If you just assume PA is captured and Maduro'd again.


if AZ, GA, and NC come through, Trump needs either Wisconsin or Nevada + New Hampshire to win.
will25u
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LMCane said:

will25u said:

EVERYONE SAY IT WITH ME!!!

PA HAS NOT RELEASED DATA ON A SINGLE VOTE!

All these huge numbers are crowd sourced, and likely bogus.

LETS WAIT UNTIL VOTES START ROLLING OUT UNTIL WE FREAK THE HELL OUT!
who is freaking out?

most republicans have been in good spirits all day long.

including when analyzing Pennsylvania data.
Multiple people on the last couple of pages are dooming HARD. People need to have a little fortitude and be patient and not fall for the BS.
TxAgPreacher
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S
will25u said:

Yukon Cornelius said:

The country was birthed at Philadelphia and it will live or die there again tonight.
Trump just needs 1 of the rust belt, doesn't matter which.
I agree only needs 1 IMO
MarkTwain
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“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience" - Mark Twain
will25u
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TxAgPreacher said:

will25u said:

Yukon Cornelius said:

The country was birthed at Philadelphia and it will live or die there again tonight.
Trump just needs 1 of the rust belt, doesn't matter which.
I agree only needs 1 IMO
Until we see actual votes, I still have Trump at 312!
oh no
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Gyles Marrett said:

agjacent said:

FireAg said:

agjacent said:

JB99 said:

Here's an interesting data points. Because the margin going into election day is so much narrower in PA they are saying Kamala needs 700k in Philly. Problem is Biden only got 600k in 2020 and Hillary only got 560k.
Philly is currently projected to have more turnout today than it did in 2020. Like. A lot more.
Says who?

Reports from PA have noted that there don't seem to be long wait times in several blue counties...
I don't think there's a way to get an exact number. Like, the state itself isn't publishing it. But there's a website where people can self-report their voter number - I guess when you go vote in your precinct, your ballot is numbered and the higher the number, the more people before you have voted? Anyway, according to this estimate:

The website is down now, but the last update I saw had the projected Philly voter turnout (based on the self-reported numbers up to whenever the site pooped out) at approaching 90%. There are 1.2M registered voters in Philly. That kind of turnout would mean something like 1.1M votes. I think the typical Dem percentage in Philly is in the high 80s? Which would mean Harris getting around 900,000 votes from Philly alone.


Joe got like what 650k votes in Philly in an election that was a massive record number of votes and were supposed to believe from some Democrat clown on X that she's going to shatter than number when everyone else is reporting low D turnout and basically no wait times? Yeah ok lol
a city commissioner told O'Keefe they're helping non-citizens vote in Philly. Whole new voter base that wasn't there four years ago.

…did some people think the open border was for "compassion" or something?
FireAg
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Rs lead Ds by 1.15M votes cast in FL...
will25u
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2023NCAggies
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will25u
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Legend
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FWIW, turnout in Philly in 2020 was 66% of registered voters.

In 2022 (not presidential year obviously), it was 43%

90% seems impossible.

https://phillyvotes-historical-results.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html

EDIT: I see 90% turnout was meant to mean 90% of 2020 vote, not of registered votes. But still. A data point.
Leander
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This isn't surprising. Many GOP voters moved there over the past 4 years. It's essentially the GOP version of Colorado.
Leander
Maroon Elephant
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Is there a chance those crazy early day turnout numbers in Philly mean their evening numbers will be lower than expected? Maybe they shot their wad early and the turnout ends up being about the same as 2020, not counting the machine go brrrr votes?
TexAgs Firestorm Survivor
11.25.23
#NeverForget
agjacent
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Gyles Marrett said:


Joe got like what 650k votes in Philly in an election that was a massive record number of votes and were supposed to believe from some Democrat clown on X that she's going to shatter than number when everyone else is reporting low D turnout and basically no wait times? Yeah ok lol
I guess we're just on different corners of the internet because I'm seeing people talking about monster turnout at their local Philly polling places and posting selfies as they wait in long lines.
Who?mikejones!
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If trump loses Pennsylvania he will need to win every swing state (ga, NC, az, Nevada) plus


1 outta 3 of Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin

Or

New Hampshire

And cannot lose any other swing state, and definitely not Iowa.
aggiehawg
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Line Ate Member
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will25u said:

LMCane said:

will25u said:

EVERYONE SAY IT WITH ME!!!

PA HAS NOT RELEASED DATA ON A SINGLE VOTE!

All these huge numbers are crowd sourced, and likely bogus.

LETS WAIT UNTIL VOTES START ROLLING OUT UNTIL WE FREAK THE HELL OUT!
who is freaking out?

most republicans have been in good spirits all day long.

including when analyzing Pennsylvania data.
Multiple people on the last couple of pages are dooming HARD. People need to have a little fortitude and be patient and not fall for the BS.
Notwithstanding this past weekend, BAS in all areas of life may be real. Live your life. Vote through the lenses of your Biblical teachings and let God control the rest.

Because He is in control of everything.
oh no
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Legend said:


90% seems impossible.
"seems" impossible. Democrats say, "challenge accepted"
FriscoKid
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FWAppraiser
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From the guy that runs that PA "tracker"



will25u
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Miami-Dade has flipped Blue for ED buy 76 votes. Still Red for total votes by ~30k.
General Jack D. Ripper
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2023NCAggies said:


I don't see it. What is it?
Well…you sounded taller on radio.
BowSowy
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Maroon Elephant said:

Is there a chance those crazy early day turnout numbers in Philly mean their evening numbers will be lower than expected? Maybe they shot their wad early and the turnout ends up being about the same as 2020, not counting the machine go brrrr votes?
Are you talking about the numbers that were extrapolated from <600 self reports?
jr15aggie
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rgag12 said:

I'll believe it when I see it in regards to Philly.

The rest of the country is giving Kamala a decidedly big "MEH", but yet she got Philly to come out in record fashion? Not buying it unless actual data comes out. Not models.

I mean, that's pretty much it in a nutshell. We've seen Dem motivation down all over the place... they simply did NOT show up to early vote the same way they did in 2020 (and technically many of them didn't show up to vote in 2020 either, but the mail in ballots were sent to them anyway).

On the flip side, GOP is showing up just as strong as they did in 2020 when Trump got 74 million votes. It's causing massive swings in some areas such as FL.

Doesn't mean that the entire country will shift this way, but generally speaking, I'd really like to know how they plan on overcoming a 600K deficit in early voting in PA when they only won by 80K in 2020.
TxAgPreacher
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Who?mikejones! said:

If trump loses Pennsylvania he will need to win every swing state (ga, NC, az, Nevada) plus


1 outta 3 of Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin

Or

New Hampshire

And cannot lose any other swing state, and definitely not Iowa.
Not correct. Wouldn't need Nevada.
A is A
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2023NCAggies said:



What am I missing here?
Gyles Marrett
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General Jack D. Ripper said:

2023NCAggies said:


I don't see it. What is it?



MAGA hat on a white dude staying with his black friends is what I see.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Celebrities begging people to vote gotta be down 75% compared to 2020.
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