Just due to the decline in EV for Dems or something else?

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I think Trump has PA in the bag already.

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Hope you are right!!

I remember about 10pm on election night in 2020 that Trump was overperforming from the polling and I remember specifically seeing the Chinese Yuan just completely tank in real time. Even the global markets were thinking Trump was about to pull out a surprise win.

I don't know why I just thought of that, but the memory stands pretty prominent in my brain.

That seems like just yesterday yet so long ago.

I think Florida results shouldn't come as a surprise. Many GOP voters have moved there during and since the pandemic.

This actually might hurt in other states.

I sense a lot of optimism itt. I'm tapping the brakes.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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taken as fact because people want to believe it, much like the black insurrectionist scammer.

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? John Earle Sullivan? the professional rioter/ demonstrator for BLM/Antifa that dressed up with a maga hat on Jan 6, encouraged and incited violence, filmed it, and sold his video to CNN? Was he a mythical creature or figment of imagination?

Chef Elko said:

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Not sure what to make of it but $DJT tanked and was halted not too long ago. Trading is back up but the stock hasn't recovered much. Betting markets seem to be moving more towards Trump though.

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Someone or some very smart entity is using the DJT stock to short the crypto market. The HFA have tied them together and its a lot easier to short a $7B market cap than a $3T one.

JB99 said:

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Here's an interesting data points. Because the margin going into election day is so much narrower in PA they are saying Kamala needs 700k in Philly. Problem is Scranton Joe Biden only got 600k in 2020 and Hillary only got 560k.

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FIFY

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10/29 was the deadline in PA to request a ballot.

So that number of outstanding ballots not returned is known.

Haven't seen that info anywhere yet though.

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I know in some states they were tracking ballot requests as well in the early vote tracking thread. Can't remember whether PA was one of those, however.

JB99 said:

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Here's an interesting data points. Because the margin going into election day is so much narrower in PA they are saying Kamala needs 700k in Philly. Problem is Biden only got 600k in 2020 and Hillary only got 560k.

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You could even argue she'll need more than that... sounds like rural PA is turning out to vote this morning. Lots and lots of men and, based on the work boots & flannel shirts they are wearing, they don't appear to be part of the 'white dudes for Harris' crowd!

Apologies for not highlighting Pima County today.@PimaRecorder is posing their totals by party here: https://t.co/8piUpdRkhf

Total: 79,829
Dem: 19,070
GOP: 31,416
Other: 29,406

— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024

AtticusMatlock said:

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I remember about 10pm on election night in 2020 that Trump was overperforming from the polling and I remember specifically seeing the Chinese Yuan just completely tank in real time. Even the global markets were thinking Trump was about to pull out a surprise win.

I don't know why I just thought of that, but the memory stands pretty prominent in my brain.

That seems like just yesterday yet so long ago.

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I remember around 2:30am CST Chris Cuomo getting excited and saying "we have good news coming in about an hour" and then the big drop for Biden happened an hour later.

oh no said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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taken as fact because people want to believe it, much like the black insurrectionist scammer.

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? John Earle Sullivan? the professional rioter/ demonstrator for BLM/Antifa that dressed up with a maga hat on Jan 6, encouraged and incited violence, filmed it, and sold his video to CNN? Was he a mythical creature or figment of imagination?

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Referring to the twitter account who posted the fake story about Tim Walz grooming a kid and then disappeared. Likely after making a bunch of money from twitter ads.

Democrats are cheating in Rhode Island too! https://t.co/qP5J6u5s03

— Emerald Robinson ✝️ (@EmeraldRobinson) November 5, 2024

FTAG 2000 said:

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10/29 was the deadline in PA to request a ballot.

So that number of outstanding ballots not returned is known.

Haven't seen that info anywhere yet though.

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Pennsylvania posted on their website. Statewide there are 163,349 Dem ballots that have not been returned. 36,761 are in Philadelphia county.

agjacent said:

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JB99 said:

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Here's an interesting data points. Because the margin going into election day is so much narrower in PA they are saying Kamala needs 700k in Philly. Problem is Biden only got 600k in 2020 and Hillary only got 560k.

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Philly is currently projected to have more turnout today than it did in 2020. Like. A lot more.

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That is counter to what I have seen reported in many places…. The suburbs of Philly are reporting mass turnout, but not the city…. Suburbs are red….

Maybe u missed something, but even msnbc and cnn earlier said Philly is slow moving.

Who?mikejones! said:

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JUST IN: Potential voter fraud scheme under investigation in Denver, CO after ballots with mismatched signatures addressed to the same Denver adult daycare center were submitted to multiple counties.

What is going on in Denver? What is Jena Griswold doing? pic.twitter.com/V7LtDtJiSb

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 5, 2024

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What's an adult daycare center?

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Apologies for not highlighting Pima County today.@PimaRecorder is posing their totals by party here: https://t.co/8piUpdRkhf

Total: 79,829
Dem: 19,070
GOP: 31,416
Other: 29,406

— Sam Almy (@sfalmy) November 5, 2024

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AZ Update: Um so this is PIMA county not PINAL.

Total: 79,829
Dem: 19,070
GOP: 31,416
Other: 29,406

I triple checked this and I would be happy to be wrong...but this is bad for Harris and Ds. I don't know any other way to say it.

Someone correct me here but that is pretty… https://t.co/3eCP11rMSt

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 5, 2024

If this continues, Rs gain 20k in Pima today. That means the total lead in Pima could be 27k.

Biden won the county by about 100k or just under.

You do the math on how many indies and crossovers that would be.

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 5, 2024

Take this for what it's worth, but this is what I think I remember hearing (on the Charlie Kirk Show) from the PA Chase guy about an hour ago.

I believe he said the rural counties in PA looked like they were trending to about 80-85% turnout, and urban Philly area was trending to about 70-75% turnout.

I would like to believe that will be the case, so I'm going to hope that is accurate, but who knows where the number will end up 5.5 hours from now.

Holy ***** You know you're a sucky candidate if you even lose BLM.

Black Lives Matter activist to vote for Donald Trump: 'I definitely would not be supporting Kamala Harris'
'For so long, we've just been blindly loyal to the Democrat Party for no reason,' Mark Fisher, co-founder of Black Lives Matter Rhode Island, said.

Kamala Harris would use anything to her advantage. I definitely would not be supporting Kamala Harris. If she ever got anywhere close to power, it would be a disaster for this country," said co-founder of Black Lives Matter [BLM] Rhode Island Mark Fisher in an interview with The New York Post published on Monday.


https://www.foxnews.com/media/black-lives-matter-activist-vote-donald-trump-i-definitely-would-not-supporting-kamala-harris

🚨 JUST IN: Nevada Republicans have now expanded on their lead WITH mail and Election Day voting

GOP lead: +47,171

🔴 REP: 433,339 (37.8%)
🔵 DEM: 386,168 (33.7%)
⚪️ OTH: 320,389 (28%)

Data: @birenbomb

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024

vwbug said:

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Not a good sign in Pennysylvania for Trump. Ugh, buckle up.

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Come on. We don't know any real info on PA yet. At least wait til we start seeing votes to doom all over the place.

jr15aggie said:

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aginlakeway said:

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agjacent said:

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JB99 said:

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Here's an interesting data points. Because the margin going into election day is so much narrower in PA they are saying Kamala needs 700k in Philly. Problem is Biden only got 600k in 2020 and Hillary only got 560k.

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Philly is currently projected to have more turnout today than it did in 2020. Like. A lot more.

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Projected by who?

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Projected by the 'grasping at straws for Harris' people!

So Philly and other urban areas way underperformed in mail in requests, returns, and all other forms of EV like they did in 2020... but they are gonna wake up and vote in record numbers today?

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One of the interesting trends to watch will be if the giant spike in mail in voting in 2020 was only due to Covid or to what degree that continues. Maybe that's what they are referencing? No idea though.