Waffledynamics said:

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TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED! GET OUT AND VOTE!

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THIS!!

Corporal Punishment said:

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Be on the lookout for Broward and Palm Beach reporting very late. They are heavily populated and vote heavily Blue. This will coincide with the later closure and very Red rural Panhandle counties in the central time zone.

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This isn't 2004. Palm Beach has become more purple and Trump will win the state by around 1 million votes.

Who?mikejones! said:

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How's that compare to 2020

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in 2020, Democrats had a around 10,000 vote lead in early voting ballots cast. 2024 ended around 218,000 ballot cast lead for Republicans.

Corporal Punishment said:

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Be on the lookout for Broward and Palm Beach reporting very late. They are heavily populated and vote heavily Blue. This will coincide with the later closure and very Red rural Panhandle counties in the central time zone.

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DeSantis won much of that vote 2 years ago

Mar A Lago is in Palm Beach County- it won't change a million vote lead

Corporal Punishment said:

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Be on the lookout for Broward and Palm Beach reporting very late. They are heavily populated and vote heavily Blue. This will coincide with the later closure and very Red rural Panhandle counties in the central time zone.

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Palm Beach county went red for Desantis in 2022.

4 hours of voting in FL update:

ED Vote:

Republican - 408,181 / +151,058 (47.5% / -0.23%)
Democrat - 218,597 / +83,129 (25.44% / +0.29%)
Unaffiliated - 206,357 / +76,847 (24.01% / -0.03%)

R +21.42 / -0.52%(189,584 / +67,929 raw vote lead)

*** Unaffiliated have almost overtaken Harris voters ***

FL Total:

Trump - 3,987,017 (43.44%)
Harris - 2,962,936 (32.28%)
Unaffiliated - 2,002,548 (21.82%)

R +10.51% / +0.32% (1,024,081 raw vote lead)

In 2020, unaffiliated was D +1.5%

Miami-Dade is STILL red for Election Day(R +2.1) as well as total votes(R +3.4)

My guess is unaffiliated break to Trump this cycle.

A little levity. Don't be Larry, Ags. (Of course, caution, profanity).

happy election day pic.twitter.com/7gBpVrdsTB

— no context curb your enthusiasm (@ProManimalUnity) November 5, 2024

Who?mikejones! said:

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Low turnout in Fairfax this morning. I’ve been to three polling places and a new voter comes in every 3 minutes. Any updates from around the state? @ChristianHeiens @JackCollinsVA

— John Jennings (@John_Jennings03) November 5, 2024

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What is the context for this tweet??? Please explain to those who aren't tied into the Fairfax market.

FireAg said:

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will25u said:

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See my post above. Your numbers are wrong.

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This is that site's EV Mail In and Mail IPEV counts respectively:



When I do that math, I get an R net advantage of 178K in EV...

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You are looking at unaffiliated. Look above in the box "Total votes counted" when you change from ED votes/ EVIP / EVMO

AggieAces06 said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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Low turnout in Fairfax this morning. I’ve been to three polling places and a new voter comes in every 3 minutes. Any updates from around the state? @ChristianHeiens @JackCollinsVA

— John Jennings (@John_Jennings03) November 5, 2024

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What is the context for this tweet??? Please explain to those who aren't tied into the Fairfax market.

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Counties around DC vote Blue.

AggieAces06 said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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Low turnout in Fairfax this morning. I’ve been to three polling places and a new voter comes in every 3 minutes. Any updates from around the state? @ChristianHeiens @JackCollinsVA

— John Jennings (@John_Jennings03) November 5, 2024

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What is the context for this tweet??? Please explain to those who aren't tied into the Fairfax market.

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It's exactly what the guy says. He claims there low voter turnout this far in Fairfax Virginia

AggieAces06 said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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Low turnout in Fairfax this morning. I’ve been to three polling places and a new voter comes in every 3 minutes. Any updates from around the state? @ChristianHeiens @JackCollinsVA

— John Jennings (@John_Jennings03) November 5, 2024

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What is the context for this tweet??? Please explain to those who aren't tied into the Fairfax market.

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DC area suburb in NoVa... deep blue county.

will25u said:

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FireAg said:

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will25u said:

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See my post above. Your numbers are wrong.

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This is that site's EV Mail In and Mail IPEV counts respectively:



When I do that math, I get an R net advantage of 178K in EV...

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You are looking at unaffiliated. Look above in the box "Total votes counted" when you change from ED votes/ EVIP / EVMO

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Ah, gotcha...then the take home message is even better for Rs from EVs...

And if that's only the Indies I have been citing, then we agree...Trump is poised to win FL Indies today too...

FL shaping up to be a Trump landslide which is likely foreshadowing for the rest of the country (when it comes to R EVs cannibalizing R ED votes)...so VERY positive for Trump if this holds...

StoneCold99 said:

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I wasn't nearly as involved in following this thread specifically in 2020.

I do remember it being very positive until late night hit and the miraculous vote dumps happened.

My question is does this feel different than 2020? Is the current data giving you posters who were heavily involved in both elections more comfort than in 2020?

Just want to prepare myself for when **** hits the fan and things go from great to 'uh-oh' if this mirrors 2020.

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Biggest difference to me is the seeming lack of enthusiasm for Kamala compared to what they had for Biden in 2020. As others have said, the anti-Trump rhetoric just doesn't hit as hard when you're talking about the same things 4 years later. It also doesn't help that they don't have anything from the Biden administration to hang their hat on. The hardcore Dems are always going to vote blue, but I think far fewer of the middle is swayed by anti-Trump and has now seen how Biden/Harris performed. Couple that with nearly everyone on the right energized by 1) feelings of the election being stolen 4 years ago, 2) seeing first hand what Biden and Harris have done to this country.

The indy's are modeled, with whatever maths that model uses. Won't know until votes are actually tallied.

Corporal Punishment said:

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AggieAces06 said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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Low turnout in Fairfax this morning. I’ve been to three polling places and a new voter comes in every 3 minutes. Any updates from around the state? @ChristianHeiens @JackCollinsVA

— John Jennings (@John_Jennings03) November 5, 2024

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What is the context for this tweet??? Please explain to those who aren't tied into the Fairfax market.

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Counties around DC vote Blue.

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Yup... it's saying what we already know due to early voting data and due to the fact that Kamala was an unelected and widely unlikable candidate!

Dems are NOT showing up to vote for her. They ain't voting for Trump, no way in hell, they are just staying home. And that's fine because the MAGA train is still rolling along!

FL went heavy R in 2022 and the rest of the country didn't follow. Be careful Projecting.

Quote:

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I don't know why they are not doing the same thing in Georgia and Penn and Michigan and North Carolina!!

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Maricopa County has countywide voting, not precinct based voting. So taking people to another voting location is possible whereas in states with precinct based voting,can't do that as easily.

That's why. And it is the countywide voting in Maricopa County that has caused many of the problems due to the shear number of ballot definition files that every EMS (server) has to hold for every precinct. In 2022, that was over 12,000 different ballot files.

This cycle, Maricopa County has TWO PAGES FRONT AND BACK. So the number of ballot definition fies will be much higher. That presents a helluva arduous task to test ballot them all before the election for accuracy and no glitches in the software within every one of those files.

Thanks!

oh no said:

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AggieAces06 said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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Low turnout in Fairfax this morning. I’ve been to three polling places and a new voter comes in every 3 minutes. Any updates from around the state? @ChristianHeiens @JackCollinsVA

— John Jennings (@John_Jennings03) November 5, 2024

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What is the context for this tweet??? Please explain to those who aren't tied into the Fairfax market.

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DC area suburb in NoVa... deep blue county.

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It means Ds are not flocking to the polls in places where Harris needs Ds to flock to the polls...

Scottsdale is the richest part of Arizona (Phoenix)

it is a true bellweather area voting for Biden in 2020 but Trump 2016

FIRST BATCH OF VOTERS!@TPAction_ Trump train taking voters to shorter locations in South Scottsdale! pic.twitter.com/vUMcUubqJQ

— Jacob Chacón (@jjacobchacon) November 5, 2024

It's surrounding DC, I believe, and is considered left leaning at a minimum.

AggieAces06 said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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Low turnout in Fairfax this morning. I’ve been to three polling places and a new voter comes in every 3 minutes. Any updates from around the state? @ChristianHeiens @JackCollinsVA

— John Jennings (@John_Jennings03) November 5, 2024

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What is the context for this tweet??? Please explain to those who aren't tied into the Fairfax market.

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Low ED turnout so far from a deep blue county in Virginia.

If it continues, would put VA in play for Trump.

SWING STATE UPATE:

Trump's odds in PA and WI have increased.

His odds in AZ now near 80%. GA at 70%. Odds in NV have ticked down. pic.twitter.com/1SpcPUh12r

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024

45-70Ag said:

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BREAKING: per a W.H. official the Harris campaign is already FIRING staffers due to being “useless”

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) November 5, 2024

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Tonight Trump to Kamala:

Bayou City said:

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FL went heavy R in 2022 and the rest of the country didn't follow. Be careful Projecting.

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this is what I said a few pages ago-

whether Florida has a 23% Trump win or 21% Trump win

is not going to affect how voters in Philadelphia walk to the polls or not.

Teslag said:

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Biden was also pretty vibrant in 2020 and like it or not he did resonate with a lot of blue collar folks. So it took a lot of Trump's midwest base away.

Kamala can't do that. She's an unlikeable skank to them in the same way hillary was.

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Yep, and Biden was presented as a moderate candidate. Obviously 4 years later we know that wasn't the case

Did she fire herself?