To show enthusiasm, and that you didn't cannibalize your ED vote with EV.Gigemags382 said:nortex97 said:It's using Florida's win margin as a proxy. Trump has won Florida no doubt. Read the full tweet and he explains it. Duval county FL is also another one where if Trump wins that it correlates with the statewide GA results very well traditionally.Quote:
Can anyone explain why Election Day 10% advantage or less for Trump in Florida is troublesome for him? I thought Republicans already had a 12% advantage in early voting in Florida? https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/
I get that Florida is not in doubt and is being used as an early estimate what may happen in other states.
But in 2020 Democrats had about a 100k advantage in Florida in total votes (early + election days) when looking at party registration, yet Trump won Florida by about 400k.
In 2024, Republicans have a 800k advantage in early voting. Why would they need 10%+ plus on Election Day to be a positive indicator for Trump in other states? It seems if he just holds ground on Election Day in Florida, he blows 2020 out of the water.
*****OFFICIAL 2024 ELECTION DAY THREAD*****
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It's a proxy for what analysts think the rest of the country will do. Basically a measure of voter enthusiasm around election day turnout.Gigemags382 said:nortex97 said:It's using Florida's win margin as a proxy. Trump has won Florida no doubt. Read the full tweet and he explains it. Duval county FL is also another one where if Trump wins that it correlates with the statewide GA results very well traditionally.Quote:
Can anyone explain why Election Day 10% advantage or less for Trump in Florida is troublesome for him? I thought Republicans already had a 12% advantage in early voting in Florida? https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/
I get that Florida is not in doubt and is being used as an early estimate what may happen in other states.
But in 2020 Democrats had about a 100k advantage in Florida in total votes (early + election days) when looking at party registration, yet Trump won Florida by about 400k.
In 2024, Republicans have a 800k advantage in early voting. Why would they need 10%+ plus on Election Day to be a positive indicator for Trump in other states? It seems if he just holds ground on Election Day in Florida, he blows 2020 out of the water.
Republicans now up 100k+ in ED votes. 936k+ Votes total in FL!
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/FireAg said:Can you post a link to follow FL results live? I haven't been able to find it on the SoS page...will25u said:
Just Election day votes, but Miami-Dade is STILL RED. R+2.
BREAKING PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE: Republicans are now EVEN with Democrats in their mail-in ballot return rate (~86% each)
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
They trailed by 8 POINTS in 2020.
DEM firewall is now at 419,578, or 22.3 points.
2020 - it was 1.1M, or 42 points....
20,800 people have voted in @maricopacounty so far.
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2024
9,421 GOP (45%)
7,068 Unaffiliated (34%)
3,906 Democratic (19%)
grassyass...will25u said:https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/FireAg said:Can you post a link to follow FL results live? I haven't been able to find it on the SoS page...will25u said:
Just Election day votes, but Miami-Dade is STILL RED. R+2.
Does guam actually have any delegates or is it just for show?
Ouch for Ds.Captn_Ag05 said:20,800 people have voted in @maricopacounty so far.
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2024
9,421 GOP (45%)
7,068 Unaffiliated (34%)
3,906 Democratic (19%)
Dems like to wait to maximize work they can miss
FireAg said:grassyass...will25u said:https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/FireAg said:Can you post a link to follow FL results live? I haven't been able to find it on the SoS page...will25u said:
Just Election day votes, but Miami-Dade is STILL RED. R+2.
So very gringo lol
oh-lay...texagbeliever said:FireAg said:grassyass...will25u said:https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/FireAg said:Can you post a link to follow FL results live? I haven't been able to find it on the SoS page...will25u said:
Just Election day votes, but Miami-Dade is STILL RED. R+2.
So very gringo lol
For show. But they do have a 15 seat state(territory?) senate 9D- 6R.Who?mikejones! said:
Does guam actually have any delegates or is it just for show?
P.U.T.U said:On X I saw there are at least 18 polling places having issues with their machines right now and several could take hours to resolve. Almost all being in rural counties. No this is not on purpose at all.gigemJTH12 said:
Prepare for heartbreak. F these peopleBREAKING - Polling stations across Pennsylvania are experiencing MASSIVE issues with voting machines.
— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 5, 2024
Numerous reports indicate that the machines are failing to scan ballots, with poll workers stating that the ballots will be āscanned in later. pic.twitter.com/rJsy692Eut
Even with that happening, the initial reactions from PA are very positive for Trumpā¦. Just have to hope the voters don't get discouraged by this "accidental" setback
gigemJTH12 said:
Prepare for heartbreak. F these peopleBREAKING - Polling stations across Pennsylvania are experiencing MASSIVE issues with voting machines.
— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 5, 2024
Numerous reports indicate that the machines are failing to scan ballots, with poll workers stating that the ballots will be āscanned in later. pic.twitter.com/rJsy692Eut
People had two whole weeks to vote early to avoid election day shenanigans. Of course the steal is on in battleground states.
BREAKING: GOP Chairman Michael Whatley says that early this morning Republican poll watchers in multiple Pennsylvania counties were being turned away, but that attorneys were deployed and can now report all Republican poll watchers have been let into the building.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
GOP was better prepared this time...will25u said:BREAKING: GOP Chairman Michael Whatley says that early this morning Republican poll watchers in multiple Pennsylvania counties were being turned away, but that attorneys were deployed and can now report all Republican poll watchers have been let into the building.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
Lots of rain today in the swing states of WI and MI. Better get all those mail/drop box ballots inside behind closed doors. Oops, looks like a bunch of Trump ballots got wet, better replace those with new Harris ballots.
Lots of optimism for a red wave in here. I was the same way on the 2020 election threadā¦hoping this time it pans out
This is great for the Dems... 80% of those GOP voters are women whose #1 concern is abortion!Captn_Ag05 said:20,800 people have voted in @maricopacounty so far.
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2024
9,421 GOP (45%)
7,068 Unaffiliated (34%)
3,906 Democratic (19%)
If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention.
If one side wins, pain and misery for the future.
If the other side wins, riots and chaos brought on by the other side for the next four years.
If one side wins, pain and misery for the future.
If the other side wins, riots and chaos brought on by the other side for the next four years.
how a polling center can deny a proctor blows my mind.FireAg said:GOP was better prepared this time...will25u said:BREAKING: GOP Chairman Michael Whatley says that early this morning Republican poll watchers in multiple Pennsylvania counties were being turned away, but that attorneys were deployed and can now report all Republican poll watchers have been let into the building.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
It's great we had a quick response, but after 2020, we should have had the lawyers there with the poll watchers.FireAg said:GOP was better prepared this time...will25u said:BREAKING: GOP Chairman Michael Whatley says that early this morning Republican poll watchers in multiple Pennsylvania counties were being turned away, but that attorneys were deployed and can now report all Republican poll watchers have been let into the building.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
And you know when counting starts this evening, they will find a way to kick the GOPers out.
Interesting breakdown of Pinellas County. Trump is up 18% over 2016.
evestor1 said:how a polling center can deny a proctor blows my mind.FireAg said:GOP was better prepared this time...will25u said:BREAKING: GOP Chairman Michael Whatley says that early this morning Republican poll watchers in multiple Pennsylvania counties were being turned away, but that attorneys were deployed and can now report all Republican poll watchers have been let into the building.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
My understanding from a few GOP Texas insiders is that the GOP made PA and AZ two of the top priorities for their legal teams to deploy toā¦
From RCP Avg. polling, no tossups:
More: https://t.co/mw4omqc2Wp pic.twitter.com/G2jg9d79Z6
— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) November 5, 2024
Ok - so what is your point?
VaultingChemist said:
Interesting breakdown of Pinellas County. Trump is up 18% over 2016.
I saw thatā¦shocked meā¦
Seemly oddly appropriate given the date and the significance of this election
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
FireAg said:GOP was better prepared this time...will25u said:BREAKING: GOP Chairman Michael Whatley says that early this morning Republican poll watchers in multiple Pennsylvania counties were being turned away, but that attorneys were deployed and can now report all Republican poll watchers have been let into the building.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
I don't understand how anyone can say elections are fair and free when you need an army of lawyers to make it so.
What website shows the Florida live turnout?
rocketman1806 said:
What website shows the Florida live turnout?
Go here.
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
ANSC Ag said:FireAg said:GOP was better prepared this time...will25u said:BREAKING: GOP Chairman Michael Whatley says that early this morning Republican poll watchers in multiple Pennsylvania counties were being turned away, but that attorneys were deployed and can now report all Republican poll watchers have been let into the building.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
I don't understand how anyone can say elections are fair and free when you need an army of lawyers to make it so.
Yepā¦.we're all "conspiracy theorists"
Guam Results 50% Reporting
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 5, 2024
šµ Harris 49% (+3)
š“ Trump 46%
2020 Results:
šµ Biden 55% (+14)
š“ Trump 41%
Early results are in, and the race for Delegate in the Northern Mariana Islands is incredibly close right now:
— Elections Daily (@Elections_Daily) November 5, 2024
Kimberlyn King-Hinds (R) - 37.4%
Ed Propst (D) - 34.2%
John Gonzales (I) - 19.8%
James Rayphand (I) - 5.9%
Currently, the territory is represented by a Democrat.
If Republicans are able to flip the Delegate race in the CNMI and hold on in Guam, they're likely to hold an outright majority of non-voting Delegates to Congress.
— Elections Daily (@Elections_Daily) November 5, 2024
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