This is devastating. We do NOT have 360 substations worth of transformers and other electrical equipment sitting in stockpiles waiting to be deployed. It could take a very long time to restore power to everyone. Are we facing a Hurricane Maria-type impact on grid infrastructure? https://t.co/k0Wli7XlEf

— Jesse D. Jenkins (@JesseJenkins) September 30, 2024

Wow

AlaskanAg99 said:

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redcrayon said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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redcrayon said:

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BassCowboy33 said:

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I found this fascinating. An almost identical scenario happened in 1916, and city leaders have been preparing for a century for it to happen again. I guess the area is historically prone to get wiped off the map by storms.

The comparisons are crazy. Severe weather events that are then followed by hurricane/tropical storms that roll through with 20-40 inches of rain. The rivers that go through Asheville apparently flood all the time, but residents believed that the crazy floods of the early 20th century would never happen again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/us/asheville-hurricane-helene-damage.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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Same for Houston but millions of people still live there.

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This is a dumb comment. The two areas are not similar in any way.

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People continually re-build in areas that are hit over and over by hurricanes, flooding, wild fires, etc. People just don't tend move due to weather or natural disasters. That was my point. Sorry it went over your head.

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And exactly where will millions of people move to in order to avoid natural disasters? You are right, people do rebuild. And current codes prevent people from rebuilding in areas generally excessively prone. Building codes can be made more stringent to be resilient but that also drives costs up.

90% of the world pulopulation lives withing ~21miles of water. If it's a coast, that's storms, if rivers that's flooding.

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You're jumping to a lot of conclusions about my post. Maybe the problem was the NYT link that I couldn't read. Do you live in Houston? I didn't suggest that people relocate.

I work for Austin Energy Distribution Engineering & Standards. The damage to the power grid is going to be a huge disaster. The supply chain for a lot of those materials has already been strained for normal projects across the country.

The big transformers lead times are well over 3 years. That's just one item not counting not counting all the rest of the material & hardware that will be required which is also in short supply.

Man power is also going to be an issue as well. There is a shortage on Engineers and construction/lineman as well. None of this was a issue when Trump was in office these supply chain issues in the electric utility industry

redcrayon said:

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BassCowboy33 said:

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I found this fascinating. An almost identical scenario happened in 1916, and city leaders have been preparing for a century for it to happen again. I guess the area is historically prone to get wiped off the map by storms.

The comparisons are crazy. Severe weather events that are then followed by hurricane/tropical storms that roll through with 20-40 inches of rain. The rivers that go through Asheville apparently flood all the time, but residents believed that the crazy floods of the early 20th century would never happen again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/us/asheville-hurricane-helene-damage.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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Same for Houston but millions of people still live there.

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What does that say about us?

BurnetAggie99 said:

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I work for Austin Energy Distribution Engineering & Standards. The damage to the power grid is going to be a huge disaster. The supply chain for a lot of those materials has already been strained for normal projects across the country.

The big transformers lead times are well over 3 years. That's just one item not counting not counting all the rest of the material & hardware that will be required which is also in short supply.

Man power is also going to be an issue as well. There is a shortage on Engineers and construction/lineman as well. None of this was a issue when Trump was in office these supply chain issues in the electric utility industry

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Biden also gave a ton of transformers and other equipment to Ukraine

BassCowboy33 said:

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redcrayon said:

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BassCowboy33 said:

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I found this fascinating. An almost identical scenario happened in 1916, and city leaders have been preparing for a century for it to happen again. I guess the area is historically prone to get wiped off the map by storms.

The comparisons are crazy. Severe weather events that are then followed by hurricane/tropical storms that roll through with 20-40 inches of rain. The rivers that go through Asheville apparently flood all the time, but residents believed that the crazy floods of the early 20th century would never happen again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/us/asheville-hurricane-helene-damage.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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Same for Houston but millions of people still live there.

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What does that say about us?

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People are willing to risk natural disasters to live in a place they desire.

BurnetAggie99 said:

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I work for Austin Energy Distribution Engineering & Standards. The damage to the power grid is going to be a huge disaster. The supply chain for a lot of those materials has already been strained for normal projects across the country.

The big transformers lead times are well over 3 years. That's just one item not counting not counting all the rest of the material & hardware that will be required which is also in short supply.

Man power is also going to be an issue as well. There is a shortage on Engineers and construction/lineman as well. None of this was a issue when Trump was in office these supply chain issues in the electric utility industry

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AI data centers are going bonkers brotha. supply and demand.

Yea a lot are coming into Austin. I just did some dual feed capacity studies for each data center that is requesting more than 10 Megawatts per data center. Austin Energy system is already loaded.

Jbob04 said:

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BurnetAggie99 said:

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I work for Austin Energy Distribution Engineering & Standards. The damage to the power grid is going to be a huge disaster. The supply chain for a lot of those materials has already been strained for normal projects across the country.

The big transformers lead times are well over 3 years. That's just one item not counting not counting all the rest of the material & hardware that will be required which is also in short supply.

Man power is also going to be an issue as well. There is a shortage on Engineers and construction/lineman as well. None of this was a issue when Trump was in office these supply chain issues in the electric utility industry

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Biden also gave a ton of transformers and other equipment to Ukraine

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I've been wondering how long it would take to restock those items.

1,093 generators
11 auto transformers
460 tons transformer oil
495 instrumental transformers
203 power transformers

[There is a staff warning at the top of the thread and this will be your only warning about disregarding that warning. -Staff]

Much of this area will not rebuild. This is a very poor area with little in employment or building resources. Finding someone to work on your home is nearly impossible. Many will simply leave.

[Same warning. -Staff]

[Same warning. -Staff]

Breaking: NC emergency officials telling folks in western NC to turn off their cell phones then turn them back on to connect to new and temporary cell towers

— Craig Melvin (@craigmelvin) October 1, 2024

A little good news. Awfully little but reestablishing communications is a start.

Missouri Task Force 1 Deploys HRD K9 Teams to North Carolina

Columbia, MO October 1, 2024 Missouri Task Force 1 (MO-TF1) has received activation orders from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to deploy a specialized team of seven Human Remains Detection K9s to North Carolina. The team, alongside their handlers, is set to depart from the Boone County Fire Protection District Headquarters around noon today.

The HRD K9 team will travel to St. Louis Lambert Airport for a flight to Charlotte, NC, scheduled to arrive at approximately 6:30 p.m. EST. Upon arrival, they will be transported to a staging location in Charlotte, where they will receive mission assignments for the following day.

In North Carolina, MO-TF1 personnel continue to conduct wide area search missions in McDowell County. Yesterday, the team worked diligently on a mountain in a large subdivision, covering 32 miles of roadway across 10,000 acres. They engaged with 34 local citizens who had sheltered in place, confirming that the community is safe. Many citizens actually offered their assistance to the team.

To date, MO-TF1 has completed 567 damage assessments in the region, evaluating roadways, bridges, structures, and critical infrastructure. Access to many areas remains challenging due to debris and washed-out roadways, but the team is committed to their mission.

"Our members are doing well and are fully dedicated to providing assistance during this critical time," said Gale Blomenkamp, Assistant Chief. "We will continue to keep the community informed as we receive further updates." #motf1helene

Heard from my brother-in-law again. He and his wife were just in Johnson City to grocery shop. They have been staying in their home up on the mountain the whole time. I should have known. They are fairly self-sufficient up there. They have some cell signal now.

Quote:

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Columbia, MO October 1, 2024 Missouri Task Force 1 (MO-TF1) has received activation orders from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to deploy a specialized team of seven Human Remains Detection K9s to North Carolina. The team, alongside their handlers, is set to depart from the Boone County Fire Protection District Headquarters around noon today.

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Very sad to hear but necessary. I have been monitoring the Helene thread on the OT board on Tigerdroppings for more firsthand accounts as posters are finally able to have limited contact with friends and family in the areas affected.

Heartbreaking.

REPORT: The Hurricane Helene de*th toll has risen to over 130 as survivors in western North Carolina describe seeing bodies stuck in trees.

Locals are describing the apocalyptic scenes on the ground as the official de*th toll continues to climb.

“There were bodies in the… pic.twitter.com/fdr9DI6yzz

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 1, 2024

I'd estimate there are going to be a lot more bodies found as they get into those areas.

from earlier today..... Cane hit on Friday. These people are going to really start feeling the effects now.

1.6 million electric customers remain without power, of the over 7.4 million electric customers effected by #HurricaneHelene.
With 616k still out in #SouthCarolina
460k out in #Georgia
371k out in #NorthCarolina
[2024-10-01 10:12 AM]https://t.co/8cAFt3zGJe#PowerOutages pic.twitter.com/JzY0zzTdcw

— PowerOutage.us (@PowerOutage_us) October 1, 2024

This is the very definition of a disaster.

As for those tire-slashing stories, it looks like they did happen but...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wild-ice-pick-bandit-rumors-hit-scene-of-helene-devastation

Quote:

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The source of the rumor appears to have been an actual incident in which a total of 56 tires had been puncturedif not exactly slashedon eight tractor trailers between the night of Sept. 25 and 8 a.m. the following day on Interstate 40 in Madison County, Tennessee.

But that was more than 15 hours before Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida. The trucks were from various companies, and police were given no indication that they were carrying relief supplies. The tires all had identical small punctures as would result from an ice pick.

"I would have no reason to believe that's what it was at that particular time," Jeff Walls, director of operations for the Madison County Sheriff's office, told The Daily Beast on Monday.

Walls reported that his office checked the internet and learned that adjacent Henderson County had reported a similar incident on Sept. 11, when tires were punctured on seven trucks. The perpetrator was videoed in the act by two dashcams and appeared to be the same man who was caught on video similarly puncturing tires on Interstate 75 Florida in June 2023.

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Not just downed lines, actual infrasturcture is gone.

Ghost Mech said:

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from earlier today..... Cane hit on Friday. These people are going to really start feeling the effects now.

1.6 million electric customers remain without power, of the over 7.4 million electric customers effected by #HurricaneHelene.
With 616k still out in #SouthCarolina
460k out in #Georgia
371k out in #NorthCarolina
[2024-10-01 10:12 AM]https://t.co/8cAFt3zGJe#PowerOutages pic.twitter.com/JzY0zzTdcw

— PowerOutage.us (@PowerOutage_us) October 1, 2024

This is the very definition of a disaster.

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There is no way into many of these areas too. Virtually every road into the mountains has been destroyed in these places. They are effectively isolated completely. I-40 is going to be down for a year.

Crazy. We went through Greenville, SC and Asheville a week and a half ago. I can't imagine what those areas are going through.

aggiehawg said:

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Not just downed lines, actual infrasturcture is gone.

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The pictures of the damage are apocalyptic in some areas. They are on the level of the storm surge damage right in the coast. Just truly incredible amounts of damage. I get the feeling many of these towns will never be rebuilt.

Nanomachines son said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Not just downed lines, actual infrasturcture is gone.

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The pictures of the damage are apocalyptic in some areas. They are on the level of the storm surge damage right in the coast. Just truly incredible amounts of damage. I get the feeling many of these towns will never be rebuilt.

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They will be rebuilt. The land is owned. These are the homes of a willing people.

I don't know about others, but I don't think there's much of Chimney Rock to rebuild on.

JFABNRGR said:

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Nanomachines son said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Not just downed lines, actual infrasturcture is gone.

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The pictures of the damage are apocalyptic in some areas. They are on the level of the storm surge damage right in the coast. Just truly incredible amounts of damage. I get the feeling many of these towns will never be rebuilt.

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They will be rebuilt. The land is owned. These are the homes of a willing people.

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They are absolutely proving that now. Appalachia is one of the hearts of America, they are a hardy self sufficient people.

This will cut the heart out of those areas.

I wonder how many transformers and other electrical equipment are sitting in ports affected by Longshoreman strike?

MooreTrucker said:

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I don't know about others, but I don't think there's much of Chimney Rock to rebuild on.

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Lake Lure and Chimney Rock are big tourist draws. They will be rebuilt.

It's not the just the mountains. SC got rocked with very high winds.

We are going to start loosing elderly and sick/medically dependent in those areas soon.

For instance, I do a lot of building inspections for kidney dialysis centers (DaVita). Those facilities don't usually have a generator with them. Essentially they are equipped with a bunch of patient chairs, water heaters and saline water tanks. The patients rely on these sites to filter their blood to survive (granted, they can go for a while without treatment but the clock is ticking)

Typically one site goes down in a town, no worries. Schedule an appointment in another neighborhood or in another town.

What do you do if all of the sites are down and hospitals aren't capable to provide treatment?


Just one example of how scary things can get for individuals in the areas impacted....

torrid said:

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MooreTrucker said:

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I don't know about others, but I don't think there's much of Chimney Rock to rebuild on.

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Lake Lure and Chimney Rock are big tourist draws. They will be rebuilt.

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I hope so. They are beautiful charming little villages.

A few could be on home dialysis units like my late sister was for several years but you need power to operate those too. When she and her husband traveled, they brought a portable dialysis machine with them. Still need a power source to operate them.