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Seana Smith and Brad Smith
Fri, Sep 20, 2024, 12:30 PM CDT

Former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart joins Morning Brief to discuss the state of the labor market and whether the election may get in the way of the Federal Reserve's rate cut path ahead.

Lockhart calls the labor market "pretty healthy," adding that the unemployment rate is not at an alarming rate. "It's a slowing labor market. I think what's happening is that hiring is slowing, but widespread firing has not developed. And the Fed intends to try to keep the overall growth level and overall health of the economy such that that widespread firing does not happen," he tells Yahoo Finance.

He notes that as the US economy came out of the pandemic, there was an "overheated" labor market. Now, the labor market is beginning to slow in what could be seen as normalization. He adds, "It's really hard to look at this labor market and say that it's going haywire in some way."

As the 2024 presidential election lies in the middle of the Fed's rate cut path ahead, many fear that the central bank runs the risk of appearing political. However, Lockhart explains, "the committee almost totally ignores the politics around this... I can count on one hand the number of times anyone even raised a political consideration. It is simply not part of the process."

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• As a result, the labor force should be 1.1 million higher and employment should be 1 million higher, according to Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker. That would increase the unemployment rate slightly, to 3.9% from 3.8%.

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Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new jobs figures 110,000 jobs created in September. September 2007 is the 49th consecutive month of job growth, setting a new record for the longest uninterrupted expansion of the U.S. labor market. Significant upward revisions to employment in July and August mean employment growth has averaged 97,000 per month over the last three months. Since August 2003, our economy has created more than 8.1 million jobs, and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.7 percent.

The U.S. Economy Is Growing And Dynamic

• Real after-tax per capita personal income has increased by over 12.5 percent an average of over $3,750 per person since President Bush took office. More than 30 percent of the Nation's net worth has been added since the President's 2003 tax cuts.
• Real wages have grown 2.2 percent over the 12 months that ended in August. This is much higher than the average growth rate during the 1990s, and it means an extra $1,266 in the past year for a family with two average wage earners.
• Exports have increased by over 14.8 percent in the 12 months that ended in July. This has resulted in an $8.3 billion reduction in the trade deficit.
• Real GDP grew at a strong 3.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2007. The economy has now experienced nearly six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.7 percent a year since the turnaround in 2001.

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infinity ag said:

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Not so sure about that...
They seem to be creating a narrative to get Kamala Auntie in the big seat.


https://finance.yahoo.com/video/labor-market-pretty-healthy-former-173031211.html

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infinity ag said:

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Not so sure about that...
They seem to be creating a narrative to get Kamala Auntie in the big seat.


https://finance.yahoo.com/video/labor-market-pretty-healthy-former-173031211.html

Quote:

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Seana Smith and Brad Smith
Fri, Sep 20, 2024, 12:30 PM CDT

Former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart joins Morning Brief to discuss the state of the labor market and whether the election may get in the way of the Federal Reserve's rate cut path ahead.

Lockhart calls the labor market "pretty healthy," adding that the unemployment rate is not at an alarming rate. "It's a slowing labor market. I think what's happening is that hiring is slowing, but widespread firing has not developed. And the Fed intends to try to keep the overall growth level and overall health of the economy such that that widespread firing does not happen," he tells Yahoo Finance.

He notes that as the US economy came out of the pandemic, there was an "overheated" labor market. Now, the labor market is beginning to slow in what could be seen as normalization. He adds, "It's really hard to look at this labor market and say that it's going haywire in some way."

As the 2024 presidential election lies in the middle of the Fed's rate cut path ahead, many fear that the central bank runs the risk of appearing political. However, Lockhart explains, "the committee almost totally ignores the politics around this... I can count on one hand the number of times anyone even raised a political consideration. It is simply not part of the process."

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Layoffs soared in August, hitting their highest total in 15 years, while year-to-date hiring hit the lowest in 19 years of a Challenge, Gray & Christmas survey.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 20, 2024

Who?mikejones! said:

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Layoffs soared in August, hitting their highest total in 15 years, while year-to-date hiring hit the lowest in 19 years of a Challenge, Gray & Christmas survey.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 20, 2024

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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Anecdotally, I still do not know of anyone personally that has been laid off. Job market has weakened considerably in the last 2 years but I haven't seen recessionary layoffs yet.

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