aggiehawg said:

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annie88 said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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The wildcard is if Trump is sentenced in September. Could go either way, depending on the sentence.

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If Trump is sentenced to prison or even house arrest, he wins in a landslide

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Oh yeah. Do you think people are pissed now? I did notice that that piece of **** Bragg is not challenging sentencing being moved till after the election. I think even he knows what a massive **** up that will be.

But if they do do it, you know the Democrats then can hammer home that the man is in prison, blah blah blah. As if anyone with a brain gives a *****

that whole case was so disgusting. Those jurors on that trial should be ashamed of themselves. There was literally no crime.

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Bragg doesn't want a stay to be issued pending appeal, or to be more precise Colangelo does not want that either. The immunity issue and how Merchan handles that will be subject to immediate appeal. (And reversal and vacation of the verdict. Trial was just that poorly conducted by Merchan and those jury instructions were absolute garbage, violating yet another SCOTUS decision released this past term on unanimity of verdicts.)

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Got it. Do you think they will sentence him?

I post many polls from many sources. Not a single one is a reliable predictor right now.

Bur, taken as a whole, they give a good idea of the trend of this race

Polls, yes.

Not before the election, at a minimum.

BUT Merchan is absolutely riddled with TDS. If Trump wins? I think he tries, before he gets slapped down in the appellate courts. He's a state judge, ignoring a SCOTUS decision, or several of them in this case, is not something even state appellate courts are hard pressed to rubber stamp.

When we were having the weekly SCOTUS decision day threads when that unanimity of verdicts decision came down my post said something like, "BOOM! There goes the Trump hush money case."

For a reminder, the issue with the jury instructions was that Merchan instructed the jury they did not need to be in agreement on the predicate crime that elevated (enhanced) the charges against Trump from a misdemeanor to a felony. Merchan instead gave the jurors a menu from which they choose their meal.

That was always unconstitutional even before the recent SCOTUS decision...Trump's lawyers told Merchan that. He ignored them and SCOTUS.

Look, I am never in favor of activist courts using agenda over law and SCOTUS does not give advisory opinions since they require an actual controversy, ripeness and not moot issues to hear. BUT what Thomas did in his opinion giving Judge Cannon a very precise roadmap for how to toss the Mar A Lago case based upon the appointments clause was pure genius, if not the epitome of judicial restraint.

FTR: Thomas' son lives in Florida and he likely knows Cannon since he visits his son and their family so often.

Who?mikejones! said:

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Whose poll/map is this?

Mine. I've bene updating it based on current polling trends

Now use RCP

It's amazing Merchan got away with what he did.

It's criminal as well as disgusting.

There's aren't updated as much

But again, you're choosing to throw out clear trends that held in both 2016 and 2020. If Trump performs relative to the polls in a similar fashion this cycle, he is a lock to win Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina and will almost certainly win Pennsylvania.

You have to assume his deviation in the polls in those states will be dramatically different in one direction to predict such a map.

Yes. I'm aware. If Trump is essentially even or within the margins in election day, it's likely he wins.

I'm simply transposing polls to a map. You can follow along through time as the map changes and see the trends. That's all. This is not a prediction of who's going to win.

This is RCP's website

True. But some of those numbers are a week old.


I really have no agenda here other than to take polls and put it on the map because I find it interesting. You're more than welcome to add your own if you think I'm being unfair or anything.

Im just saying there are others besides 538 who is owned by the dem media. So if you post their map, I'm going to be right behind you

I dont get mine from 538. But, you're more than welcome to post Rasmussen's if you want. The more the better

Thats RCP's averages. Have you considered RFK endorsing Trump in your trends?

No, I'm only posting based of of polls. I'm not aware of any polls woth that done in consideration but I suppose we will have some next week with that calculated in.

Barnyard96 said:

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This is RCP's website

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I could see that playing out. GWB beat Kerry by 35 EV's in 2004 so I could foresee Kamala being portrayed as a 'lock' by the media all the way up to election day like Kerry was...only in reality enough voters saw how liberal the policy positions were and chose otherwise.

Hopefully the Republicans are ready to watch the vote counters this year.

Post convention update shows the Harris bounce. Will this be the crescendo or will we see a fall happen?


And, this map is based on real clear politics polling lists

Here's an assessment from Nate silver, note, not 538

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Maybe a little bit of an RFK effect after all? Kamala Harris's lead peaked at 4.3 points in our national average the day Kennedy dropped out and now it's down to 3.5 points in the now RFK-less version of our model. That's not bad, but with the convention bounce adjustment the model is applying, the November forecast is about as close to 50/50 as it gets.

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I call BS that Biden dropping out in Wisconsin made Democrats go from a sure loser to a winner.

She's not winning every swing state

She probably won't. I don't know how many times I have to repeat I'm simply taking recent polling and putting them on a map to watch the trend before y'all understand this is not a prediction.

Wut?

I simply take the latest listed polls on RCP and translate that to a map. You pull the averages which includes older polling.

That's fine


I'm not sure why you feel so threatened by a simple visual representation of polling on a map

Threatened? Ha, your map is misleading and Im just cleaning up your mess.

It's not misleading. It's simply transposing actual recent polling to a map. It's not taking averages to the map, as those include out of date polling. You're more than welcome to add that, if you think that's some sort of useful addition.


Kamala is leading at this moment across the board in just about every poll. Trump just posted a rage tweet at Fox News for the polling they just released showing him trailing in nearly every swing state.

But, carry on.

Who?mikejones! said:

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It's not misleading. It's simply transposing actual recent polling to a map. It's not taking averages to the map, as those include out of date polling. You're more than welcome to add that, if you think that's some sort of useful addition.


Kamala is leading at this moment across the board in just about every poll. Trump just posted a rage tweet at Fox News for the polling they just released showing him trailing in nearly every swing state.

But, carry on.

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Well as long as you believe it, that's all that matters.

I don't believe anything. Just following the trends.

You honestly believe that she is leading because a Fox News poll of 1000 RV's has her +1 with a margin of error of 2?

Your map should have every swing state gray at best.

Let me save everybody a great deal of time
The states that matter will be within the margin of error ( MOE ) until Election Day
If one candidate self destructs the polls might be slightly outside the MOE.
Pollsters have had a very hard time modeling every election since Trump came down the escalator
Throw in the post Dobbs environment, Governors trying to help their party through executive action and people don't pick up their phone and intentionally lie to pollsters
Zero chance the pollsters will give any helpful insight because as i stated to begin with The Polls in the swing states will be within the MOE

I agree. And being in that Moe should be good for trump.

Make it if you want it that way. Again, for the millionth time, I'm post a map that corresponds to who is leading, whether that be by .01 or 25 points.

You're more than welcome to make your own map and post it here. That doesn't lend itself to tracking much movement because, as the above poster said, the swing states will probably stay within the moe for the entire cycle

If there is any discernible trend around Halloween that's important but it's going to be all about turnout and the polls really can't gauge an election that will be determined by how many under 40 yo female voters / over 40 yo white males get to the polls

Light blue gray is a tilt. Barely a lean left.

Pale red is a tilt right.

Yellow is a tie