Still too early for 'accurate' polling. Give it a week.

That's what this threads for; a place to continually post current polls.

Yeah I put this sentiment on the main polling thread, but all but two of those were of surveys before she even became the de facto nominee, and almost all of them are registered voters. It will take at least through this weekend and likely longer until we have 'reliable' poll data on Harris/Trump (including all 5 and using likely voters, with breakdowns in battleground states specifically more interesting).

Realistically she's gonna get some boost from all the media salivating about how great, diverse, has the 'right' skin tone/genitalia, and brilliant she is over the next couple weeks/months to try to get her into a 'close' position. I would guess she is net down around 6 nationally right now (among actual likely voters) vs. Trump/Vance but it would be unsurprising if the real figure drops to around a 3 point margin after their convention.

Her main challenge is to not be-clown herself on camera daily and somehow get out from the Administration's record of epic/abysmal failures as viewed by Americans. She is truly horrible at public speaking/stump speeches so I am cautiously optimistic her numbers might actually get worse by November.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

AJCB said:

---

I am not an optimistic person, but realist by nature. I pray the Republicans have learned from the last election. And pray that God does not sit this one out.

---

But realistically a democrat trailing a Republican nearly universally by 1-5 points in a presidential election is going to lose every time. Realize that Trump just breaking even in the popular vote with Kamala, because of the national distribution of votes, means he probably won all the swing states by at least several points. Kamala is going to run up the numbers in blue cities in blue states, where the only demographics that will reliably turn out for her (blacks and single women) are much more heavily congregated. Shes poised to get eviscerated in the middle and lower middle class white demographic that determines the midwestern swing states. Georgia and Arizona aren't even in play for her at the current rate.

She has to win the popular vote by a healthy margin to win

---

great point

also you didn't mention California alone gives like 6 million vote surplus to the democrats.

nortex97 said:

---

Yeah I put this sentiment on the main polling thread, but all but two of those were of surveys before she even became the de facto nominee, and almost all of them are registered voters. It will take at least through this weekend and likely longer until we have 'reliable' poll data on Harris/Trump (including all 5 and using likely voters, with breakdowns in battleground states specifically more interesting).

Realistically she's gonna get some boost from all the media salivating about how great, diverse, has the 'right' skin tone/genitalia, and brilliant she is over the next couple weeks/months to try to get her into a 'close' position. I would guess she is net down around 6 nationally right now (among actual likely voters) vs. Trump/Vance but it would be unsurprising if the real figure drops to around a 3 point margin after their convention.

Her main challenge is to not be-clown herself on camera daily and somehow get out from the Administration's record of epic/abysmal failures as viewed by Americans. She is truly horrible at public speaking/stump speeches so I am cautiously optimistic her numbers might actually get worse by November.

---

if the GOP has any skill they should be able to define her before she can define herself

they should also be able to hang the border and inflation costs around her neck

again, that is assuming the Trump campaign and RNC have any skill whatsoever.

JD Vance should be intelligent enough to come up with some strategy

I disagree that with Kamala suddenly Georgia is off the table.

Biden won Georgia. Ossoff won Senate in Georgia. Preacher whatever his name is won Senate in Georgia.

so the last THREE entire state /national elections the democrats have gone 3-0

now add in a black female for the Atlanta suburbs.

why would she run WEAKER than Biden?!

Trump is up 5 over Harris in Georgia right now.


I dont think Harris does anything more for the dems than Joe did with the voters in Georgia.

They both get nearly all black woman
The both are/will lose a significant % of black men

I dont know that she appeals to the suburban moms any more than Joe does- she has no kids, she's super progressive.

one safe place said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

We've already seen how she does in a national race. No one likes her. She got less than 1% in 2020.

---

Less than 1% of democrats.

---

None of that matters in a national election against Trump. People will vote for their party regardless of candidate so she'll get roughly 50% of the vote. At least half the country despises Trump more than anything and they'd vote for Stalin to keep him out. It's going to be hard for us to win against literally anybody.

She will get about 48% of the vote. Trump will get about 48%.

It's traditionally that middle 4 or 5 % that there's a fight for.

In modern times, so long as there's normal turnout, the election will probably be determined by vote harvesting in a few very specific cities- Philly, Detroit, Atlanta, Phoenix, and so on.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

olarmy96 said:

---

I wonder if she even polls better with women than Biden?

She dated a 60-year-old man when she was 29. His patronage jump-started her political career. Seems that more women than men disapprove of situations like that.

---

She will definitely poll better with black women and unmarried white women (but not by much with respect to the latter group). She will do worse with married white women and Hispanic women.

What would be interesting is to see how she does with MARRIED black women specifically. Black women generally speaking despise other black women who marry white men. I could see her doing worse than Biden especially among affluent married black women.

---

I call horse sheet on the bolded above. If anything, it's black men who dislike black women marrying outside their race. But honestly, it's not seen negatively accept by a few fringe radicals.

Agthatbuilds said:

---

We've already seen how she does in a national race. No one likes her. She got less than 1% in 2020.

The problem for dems is that she now has to be in the public eye. No hiding her cringy-ness, her gaffer or just totally stupid comments anymore.

I dont think she get any more votes than Joe brought. Who is gonna switch for her? Black men? Suburban mom's? Independents? Moderates?

She was the most progressive Senator, more than even Bernie. She's not a likeable person and nothing is gonna change that.
I also think her being younger makes the VP choice pretty irrelevant.

---

That less than 1% was against other Democrats, though. It wasn't against President Trump. Even if they don't like her, there are LOTs of Dems who will vote for her because in their feable brains she is better than the alternative.

If Trump can't beat the word salad lady, we've already lost our nation.

But not a lot more than biden was already capturing.

2024 National GE, Among voters age 18-34:

Trump 58% (+19)
Harris 39%
.
Trump 47% (+18)
Harris 29%
Kennedy 9%
Stein 4%
Oliver 4%
West 3%

.@QuinnipiacPoll, RV, 7/19-21 https://t.co/N9LoeOnTco

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024

.@Polymarket - Swing States Odds (7/22)

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Donald Trump: 57%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 43%
—
WISCONSIN
🟥 Donald Trump: 55%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 45%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Donald Trump: 53%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 47%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Donald Trump: 66%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 34%
—
GEORGIA
🟥… pic.twitter.com/qaTda3xxyr

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 23, 2024

Quote:

---

Black women generally speaking despise other black women who marry white men.

---

But how do black American women feel about mixed Caribbean Islanders/Indians who marry white/Jewish men?

It's a stretch to link Kamala to a typical black American (other than identity politics enhanced by blurred vision).

Hope that map holds, but the machines will have a long night to prove me wrong.

Rex Racer said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

We've already seen how she does in a national race. No one likes her. She got less than 1% in 2020.

The problem for dems is that she now has to be in the public eye. No hiding her cringy-ness, her gaffer or just totally stupid comments anymore.

I dont think she get any more votes than Joe brought. Who is gonna switch for her? Black men? Suburban mom's? Independents? Moderates?

She was the most progressive Senator, more than even Bernie. She's not a likeable person and nothing is gonna change that.
I also think her being younger makes the VP choice pretty irrelevant.

---

That less than 1% was against other Democrats, though. It wasn't against President Trump. Even if they don't like her, there are LOTs of Dems who will vote for her because in their feable brains she is better than the alternative.

---

which is why #VoteBlueNoMatterWho has been trending, and the entire democrat platform is "we aren't Trump." Love it of hate it, A LOT of people vote with "feeling" and "emotion" on both sides these days, and the democrats will fall in line with what the machine tells them because it makes them "feel" good.

I'm hoping Kamala falls on her face, a la Trump 2020, because the media and the machine is out in full force Anti-Trump mode, and the leftists are actually catching momentum.

Agthatbuilds said:

---

But not a lot more than biden was already capturing.

---

And let's hope that holds.

Agthatbuilds said:

---

But not a lot more than biden was already capturing.

---

I think it's going to be a race of who can hold on to their entrenched party members and keep enthusiasm high, while not falling on their own sword and disenfranchising the middle %.

Basically who can eff up less.

I feel like Shapiro is a no go for VP becasue he's Jewish. It would absolutely cost them Michigan and everything I have seen indicates they can't win without Michigan.

If the polls are this bad now for Harris, just wait until she starts campaigning.

Agthatbuilds said:

---

She will get about 48% of the vote. Trump will get about 48%.

It's traditionally that middle 4 or 5 % that there's a fight for.

In modern times, so long as there's normal turnout, the election will probably be determined by vote harvesting in a few very specific cities- Philly, Detroit, Atlanta, Phoenix, and so on.

---

impossible if RFK and Jill Stein stay in the race.

Agthatbuilds said:

---

He's Jewish. I don't think the dems can do it.

Probably someone like beshear

---

I don't dislike Beshear, but he comes across a little snivelly. Like a lackey.

That Shapiro dude...I like him.

(This is all based on a few data points over the last few days).

zephyr88 said:

---

Quote:

---

Black women generally speaking despise other black women who marry white men.

---

But how do black American women feel about mixed Caribbean Islanders/Indians who marry white/Jewish men?

It's a stretch to link Kamala to a typical black American (other than identity politics enhanced by blurred vision).

---

It was a stretch to link Barack Obama to the typical black American but they sure as hell did it.

Trump has a much stronger campaign team than he had in 2016 and 2020. It certainly looks like this was anticipated by his campaign and they are on the attack as they need to be.

The Jackass Party is stuck with Cacklelackey, an individual who cannot defend her administration's policies in a public setting.

A machine can only do so much, especially with a DEI Vice President who is a known lightweight even to members of her own party.

Meanwhile, Trump has built a machine of his own this time.

Margin of error race between Harris-Trump in new poll conducted after Biden dropped https://t.co/Bd49pV6bBt

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 23, 2024

Harris' impact on race with Trump revealed in new poll https://t.co/mYBXSdXNtH

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 23, 2024

Man at this rate they are going to be counting for the entire month of November.

New polls. Basically a dead heat, which is good for trump and Republicans.

I'd expect Harris to have a bump, but then become even more dislike the more she gets screen time

Agthatbuilds said:

---

New polls. Basically a dead heat, which is good for trump and Republicans.

---

Why do you think that?

With all the convention hooplah and publiciity, the nominee from that party will generally see a rise in the poll numbers, but it isn't permanent. Trump is seeing that rise now.

The Democratic Convention has yet to happen. When it does, we can expect to see Harris (assuming she is the nominee) to see a rise in her poll numbers. It would not be unexpected to see her up by 5 to 10 points for some period of time: maybe a week, maybe a month. Who knows?

From what little I've read, it appears that the Democrats are arguing that Vance brings absolutely nothing to the Trump Campaign. He shores up no weak spots for Trump while someone like Doug Berghum would have undoubtedly been a big help to Trump in the election. I don't know whether they are correct or not, but they do make a plausible argument that Vance was chosen as Trump's running mate for his loyalty to Trump. It remains to be seen how loyal Vance will be to Trump.

What is clear is that Trump is now the only doddering old man in the election. I don't know if that will hurt him real much, but it definitely won't help him.

Against Biden, Trump had a chance. It remains to be seen whether Trump will have any chance against just about any other Democrat except maybe if the Democrats were stupid enough to choose Hillary as their nominee.

They basically just chose another Hillary as their nominee

eric76 said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

New polls. Basically a dead heat, which is good for trump and Republicans.

---

Why do you think that?

With all the convention hooplah and publiciity, the nominee from that party will generally see a rise in the poll numbers, but it isn't permanent. Trump is seeing that rise now.

The Democratic Convention has yet to happen. When it does, we can expect to see Harris (assuming she is the nominee) to see a rise in her poll numbers. It would not be unexpected to see her up by 5 to 10 points for some period of time: maybe a week, maybe a month. Who knows?

From what little I've read, it appears that the Democrats are arguing that Vance brings absolutely nothing to the Trump Campaign. He shores up no weak spots for Trump while someone like Doug Berghum would have undoubtedly been a big help to Trump in the election. I don't know whether they are correct or not, but they do make a plausible argument that Vance was chosen as Trump's running mate for his loyalty to Trump. It remains to be seen how loyal Vance will be to Trump.

What is clear is that Trump is now the only doddering old man in the election. I don't know if that will hurt him real much, but it definitely won't help him.

Against Biden, Trump had a chance. It remains to be seen whether Trump will have any chance against just about any other Democrat except maybe if the Democrats were stupid enough to choose Hillary as their nominee.

---

They know Harris is going to lose they are trying to save down ballot races.

Doug Berhgum wasn't picked due to his stance on abortion in his state that would have hurt trump and played into the dems hands where are you getting your info? LOL

eric76 said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

New polls. Basically a dead heat, which is good for trump and Republicans.

---

Why do you think that?

With all the convention hooplah and publiciity, the nominee from that party will generally see a rise in the poll numbers, but it isn't permanent. Trump is seeing that rise now.

The Democratic Convention has yet to happen. When it does, we can expect to see Harris (assuming she is the nominee) to see a rise in her poll numbers. It would not be unexpected to see her up by 5 to 10 points for some period of time: maybe a week, maybe a month. Who knows?

From what little I've read, it appears that the Democrats are arguing that Vance brings absolutely nothing to the Trump Campaign. He shores up no weak spots for Trump while someone like Doug Berghum would have undoubtedly been a big help to Trump in the election. I don't know whether they are correct or not, but they do make a plausible argument that Vance was chosen as Trump's running mate for his loyalty to Trump. It remains to be seen how loyal Vance will be to Trump.

What is clear is that Trump is now the only doddering old man in the election. I don't know if that will hurt him real much, but it definitely won't help him.

Against Biden, Trump had a chance. It remains to be seen whether Trump will have any chance against just about any other Democrat except maybe if the Democrats were stupid enough to choose Hillary as their nominee.

---

Because polls are typically biased for democrats and Republicans usually outperform poll number is things like presidential elections.

I dont care for Vance one way or another, but I submit it does not matter who Trump selected as VP. It's about Trump all the time.

Kamala will get a "freshness" bump and there's usually a bump with the convention. But she did horribly within even her own people. She's likely to have many awkward moments as the publicity builds.

She's not a good speaker. She doesn't have great stage presence. I don't think she will turn back the Hispanic and black male voters to her party and I'm not sold she is palatable enough for the suburban mom. I'd rank her about 3 on the list of people who Trump can beat- 1 being Hillary, 2 biden and three kamala.

Teslag said:

---

They basically just chose another Hillary as their nominee

---

True. But it wasn't Hillary. She has plenty of baggage, but is not as much hated as HIllary.

Edward_Colston said:

---

eric76 said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

New polls. Basically a dead heat, which is good for trump and Republicans.

---

Why do you think that?

With all the convention hooplah and publiciity, the nominee from that party will generally see a rise in the poll numbers, but it isn't permanent. Trump is seeing that rise now.

The Democratic Convention has yet to happen. When it does, we can expect to see Harris (assuming she is the nominee) to see a rise in her poll numbers. It would not be unexpected to see her up by 5 to 10 points for some period of time: maybe a week, maybe a month. Who knows?

From what little I've read, it appears that the Democrats are arguing that Vance brings absolutely nothing to the Trump Campaign. He shores up no weak spots for Trump while someone like Doug Berghum would have undoubtedly been a big help to Trump in the election. I don't know whether they are correct or not, but they do make a plausible argument that Vance was chosen as Trump's running mate for his loyalty to Trump. It remains to be seen how loyal Vance will be to Trump.

What is clear is that Trump is now the only doddering old man in the election. I don't know if that will hurt him real much, but it definitely won't help him.

Against Biden, Trump had a chance. It remains to be seen whether Trump will have any chance against just about any other Democrat except maybe if the Democrats were stupid enough to choose Hillary as their nominee.

---

They know Harris is going to lose they are trying to save down ballot races.

Doug Berhgum wasn't picked due to his stance on abortion in his state that would have hurt trump and played into the dems hands where are you getting your info? LOL

---

Like it or not, if Trump runs on ending abortion, it almost surely isn't going to help him.