Thought it might be interesting to have thread dedicated to this new race

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-harris

Ignored a call*

You should try dark mode

Not a fan

Right now it seems like the only thing that matters in Pennsylvania. There's no realistic path for Trump without it. That's why Shapiro will be her running mate

He's Jewish. I don't think the dems can do it.

Probably someone like beshear

If Shapiro, no Michigan.

Harris' disapproval numbers are equally as bad as Joe's, for what it's worth

Beat me to it

Everyone is always saying how unlikeable Kamala is but does she have the ability to improve that compared to Trump who seems to have a pretty firm ceiling.

In 4 months can she be just enough less cringey to pull this off?

We've already seen how she does in a national race. No one likes her. She got less than 1% in 2020.

The problem for dems is that she now has to be in the public eye. No hiding her cringy-ness, her gaffer or just totally stupid comments anymore.

I dont think she get any more votes than Joe brought. Who is gonna switch for her? Black men? Suburban mom's? Independents? Moderates?

She was the most progressive Senator, more than even Bernie. She's not a likeable person and nothing is gonna change that.
I also think her being younger makes the VP choice pretty irrelevant.

Horn_in_Aggieland said:

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Everyone is always saying how unlikeable Kamala is but does she have the ability to improve that compared to Trump who seems to have a pretty firm ceiling.

In 4 months can she be just enough less cringey to pull this off?

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Not likely. IMHO, the public has a firm mental image of her that cannot be easily erased without electro-shock therapy or LSD overdose.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Harris' disapproval numbers are equally as bad as Joe's, for what it's worth

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The problem for the Dems this time around is they're the incumbent playing defense. That doesn't leave with Biden.

It's easy to be the challenger like they were in 2020 and tell voters how everything is bad. This time they actually have to defend their crappy policies and rising costs.

Of course with the Dems we have to be prepared for election shenanigans...but the narrative is also very different for them as the incumbent compared to 2020.

Ozzy Osbourne said:

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Within the margin of fraud

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Unfortunately, this.

Agthatbuilds said:

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We've already seen how she does in a national race. No one likes her. She got less than 1% in 2020.

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Less than 1% of democrats.

Agthatbuilds said:

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He's Jewish. I don't think the dems can do it.

Probably someone like beshear

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I can't believe it, but multiple Dem insiders have reported that this is a major hurdle for Shapiro to make the ticket.

NPR LOL

Any Republican presidential candidate up by 2 in aggregate popular vote polling is running away with it. Because of the current distribution of votes in the US, a Democrat needs to be not just ahead but outside the margin of error in order to truly be considered comfortably ahead. This is especially true when it comes to facing Trump who has outpaced his polling in literally every primary and national election he has ever been in. That includes the 2024 primaries, where he was so far ahead it was almost impossible to end up better than he was polling but he still did it.

If Trump even comes close to winning the popular vote, let alone winning it by 2, it will be a short election night. All the eastern and central times zone swing states will be called well before midnight in that scenario.

I wonder if she even polls better with women than Biden?

She dated a 60-year-old man when she was 29. His patronage jump-started her political career. Seems that more women than men disapprove of situations like that.

She has no shot at Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio.

No matter who she picks at VP. RFK single handily gives Trump Nevada and Arizona.

Harris has to win all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Omaha, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico.

You can pin point a state by picking a senator or Governor. But beyond that VPs state, they really have no shot at all to get the rest

BCO07 said:

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Right now it seems like the only thing that matters in Pennsylvania. There's no realistic path for Trump without it. That's why Shapiro will be her running mate

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That's….not accurate at all

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Trump still just has to win either Wisconsin or Michigan plus Arizona. He's way out in front of Harris in Arizona and comfortably in front in Wosconsin. Nevada in that scenario doesn't even matter (and he's ahead there to outside the margin of error).

What many of you need to realize is that against Kamala, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina are effectively no longer swing states. It would be shocking based on what we know today if she wins any of them. And in that scenario she can only afford to lose one of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia, all of which are in play and she's a clear favorite in only one.

2023NCAggies said:

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She has no shot at Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio.

No matter who she picks at VP. RFK single handily gives Trump Nevada and Arizona.

Harris has to win all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Omaha, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico.

You can pin point a state by picking a senator or Governor. But beyond that VPs state, they really have no shot at all to get the rest

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Yes they will. They'll be called for dems then the math sorted out over the next 5-10 business days.

Do I think Trump absolutely wins an honest election? 100%. No doubt.

Do I think we'll get one? I think Saddam Hussein ran fairer elections than what we are about to see.There is too much behind the curtain now. For all the name calling that Trumps a fascist dictator, I've honestly resigned to the fact we will never see another R president. The country will be ruined before that happens.

fightingfarmer09 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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He's Jewish. I don't think the dems can do it.

Probably someone like beshear

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I can't believe it, but multiple Dem insiders have reported that this is a major hurdle for Shapiro to make the ticket.

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Wait until dem voters find out Kamala's husband is Jewish.

olarmy96 said:

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I wonder if she even polls better with women than Biden?

She dated a 60-year-old man when she was 29. His patronage jump-started her political career. Seems that more women than men disapprove of situations like that.

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She will definitely poll better with black women and unmarried white women (but not by much with respect to the latter group). She will do worse with married white women and Hispanic women.

What would be interesting is to see how she does with MARRIED black women specifically. Black women generally speaking despise other black women who marry white men. I could see her doing worse than Biden especially among affluent married black women.

I am not an optimistic person, but realist by nature. I pray the Republicans have learned from the last election. And pray that God does not sit this one out.

BCO07 said:

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Right now it seems like the only thing that matters in Pennsylvania. There's no realistic path for Trump without it. That's why Shapiro will be her running mate

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Especially that no one greeted Bibi here for his visit

AJCB said:

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I am not an optimistic person, but realist by nature. I pray the Republicans have learned from the last election. And pray that God does not sit this one out.

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But realistically a democrat trailing a Republican nearly universally by 1-5 points in a presidential election is going to lose every time. Realize that Trump just breaking even in the popular vote with Kamala, because of the national distribution of votes, means he probably won all the swing states by at least several points. Kamala is going to run up the numbers in blue cities in blue states, where the only demographics that will reliably turn out for her (blacks and single women) are much more heavily congregated. Shes poised to get eviscerated in the middle and lower middle class white demographic that determines the midwestern swing states. Georgia and Arizona aren't even in play for her at the current rate.

She has to win the popular vote by a healthy margin to win

Infection_Ag11 said:

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BCO07 said:

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Right now it seems like the only thing that matters in Pennsylvania. There's no realistic path for Trump without it. That's why Shapiro will be her running mate

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That's….not accurate at all

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Trump still just has to win either Wisconsin or Michigan plus Arizona. He's way out in front of Harris in Arizona and comfortably in front in Wosconsin. Nevada in that scenario doesn't even matter (and he's ahead there to outside the margin of error).

What many of you need to realize is that against Kamala, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina are effectively no longer swing states. It would be shocking based on what we know today if she wins any of them. And in that scenario she can only afford to lose one of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia, all of which are in play and she's a clear favorite in only one.

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Here's why I say that. I think we're effectively left with the below and kamala has to sweep. That said, I don't see a scenario where Trump loses Pennsylvania, but wins the other 2 based on the past two elections. I think that if he can't get past the fraud machine in Penn it'll be the same thing as 2020 all over again