https://archive.is/tI3BO

Archive link to not give that tripe clicks.

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There's a whole industry out there engaged in spinning polls and shifting expectations to show that Donald Trump is going to win by a massive landslide, sweeping godless woke liberalism out of power in Washington and instituting his long-promised era of vengeance and vindication. Presumably some of this is harmless hype designed to attract MAGA eyeballs and keep Republican enthusiasm high. The more sinister possibility is that spinmeisters are creating the foundation for another Trump challenge to the outcome if he loses; after all, if you've been hearing for months that he's far ahead then any adverse vote count has to be "rigged," right?

Beneath all the noise about Trump riding high is some actual empirical evidence that's he's improving on his 2020 performance. That's most obvious in national popular vote estimates: Trump lost by 4.5 percent in 2020 and is leading, albeit modestly, in 2024 national polls. But it's also evident in particular states where he didn't do well at all last time around. Lately there's a lot of buzz about Trump being competitive in supposedly deep-blue Virginia, as the Wall Street Journal reports:

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This entire article is one big tank of copium. Simply given population centers' tendency to vote Democrat, there is almost no chance that a Republican earns the popular vote but loses the election. That seemingly only happens to Democrats for a reason.

If Trump is actually ahead in the popular vote, and if the Republicans actually play smart and harvest ballots even half as well as Democrats do, then Trump will win. It's simply not going to happen for Biden.

Biden's gonna lose fa sho

Old McDonald said:

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trump winning the popular vote but losing the ec would be objectively the funniest possible outcome of this election

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Kind of depends on the locations, no? He wins a few reliably blue/purple states? Inexplicably, loses other red states?

Yesterday said:

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Yes. He could. It's called the electoral college. Keep the hard hitting facts coming.

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Yes, and this exact scenario is really only likely for Republicans.

you survived 12 years of obama and biden, the resistlibs survived 4 years of trump, both sides will survive this election

aggiehawg said:

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Old McDonald said:

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trump winning the popular vote but losing the ec would be objectively the funniest possible outcome of this election

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Kind of depends on the locations, no? He wins a few reliably blue/purple states? Inexplicably, loses other red states?

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the theory is he makes gains with young and non-white voters in deep red and blue places like TX, CA, VA, etc. without flipping the states, but loses ground or stagnates with white voters in key battlegrounds like MI, PA, and WI

unlikely imo

If it happens then the left should shut the hell up about the electoral college.

No Dem is ever going to lose the race for president again until we are willing to fight and eliminate massive vote fraud. They do it right out in the open and nobody will do a ****ing thing about it.

rocky the dog said:

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Well land doesn't get to vote. People vote and most people live in cities. That's how corrupt and dirty Chicago controls the whole state of Illinois, for example. Those farmers who populate most of the state don't get to decide a ****ing thing. They might as well not exist from a political standpoint.

rocky the dog said:

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Vermont? They're consistently blue despite not having any major cities.

If Biden loses the popular vote, aren't there some lefty states like Colorado who will have to give their electoral votes to Trump?

TexAgs91 said:

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If Biden loses the popular vote, aren't there some lefty states like Colorado who will have to give their electoral votes to Trump?

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Not yet. That "compact" is not in effect until they have 270 EC vote states locked into it.

And that compact is unconstitutional, BTW.

Old McDonald said:

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you survived 12 years of obama and biden, the resistlibs survived 4 years of trump, both sides will survive this election

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Survival isn't the issue.

Funky Winkerbean said:

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Old McDonald said:

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you survived 12 years of obama and biden, the resistlibs survived 4 years of trump, both sides will survive this election

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Survival isn't the issue.

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Revenge is.

Old McDonald said:

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you survived 12 years of obama and biden, the resistlibs survived 4 years of trump, both sides will survive this election

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Oh look, Mr "moderate" is trying to tell us that it's okay.

AggieVictor10 said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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Old McDonald said:

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you survived 12 years of obama and biden, the resistlibs survived 4 years of trump, both sides will survive this election

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Survival isn't the issue.

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Revenge is.

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Not revenge, reckoning.

VT and MA.

There are not many blue states, just a bunch of blue / BSC cities.

This article assumes Biden will be the democratic candidate. I'm not so sure that's how it will turn out.

doubledog said:

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If it happens then the left should shut the hell up about the electoral college.

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This. All the people who acted like the EC was horrible and racist in 2016 would think it's the greatest thing ever.

Old McDonald said:

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you survived 12 years of obama and biden, the resistlibs survived 4 years of trump, both sides will survive this election

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It's 2024. America should be wayyyyy past the point of "surviving".

Catag94 said:

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This article assumes Biden will be the democratic candidate. I'm not so sure that's how it will turn out.

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After Trump is locked in as the GOP nominee is when I would expect the replace Biden plan to materialize and might be why the Ds decided to have their convention as late as realistically possible

Will it finally be ok if that were to happen, Dems? The electoral college will be ok?

Sq 17 said:

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Catag94 said:

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This article assumes Biden will be the democratic candidate. I'm not so sure that's how it will turn out.

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After Trump is locked in as the GOP nominee is when I would expect the replace Biden plan to materialize and might be why the Ds decided to have their convention as late as realistically possible

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That would only leave about 8 weeks until Election Day. I don't see how they could pull that off without Biden dying.

Yep, have said for a couple of decades you only have to win about seven cities to become president.

Sq 17 said:

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Catag94 said:

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This article assumes Biden will be the democratic candidate. I'm not so sure that's how it will turn out.

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After Trump is locked in as the GOP nominee is when I would expect the replace Biden plan to materialize and might be why the Ds decided to have their convention as late as realistically possible

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Saw an interview of MI Congresswoman Debbie Dingell by Maria Bartiromo. Dingell is not the brightest bulb in the chandelier but she is well connected to the Dem infrastructure. She made a very curious statement about Hunter's laptop. That she "wasn't privy" to what is or isn't on the laptop but that there was an investigation ongoing and that "we'll be hearing much more about the laptop in the coming months."

Video at LINK 11 minute 45 second mark.

100% Pure Aggie said:

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AggieVictor10 said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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Old McDonald said:

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you survived 12 years of obama and biden, the resistlibs survived 4 years of trump, both sides will survive this election

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Survival isn't the issue.

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Revenge is.

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Not revenge, reckoning.

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Doesnt matter as long as the libs get owned