texagbeliever said:

---

Ag87H2O said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Ag87H2O said:

---

shiftyandquick said:

---

and this is before Biden et al. have launched their attacks against Trump. He will have a HUGE advantage in resources and money going into the election.

---

This is what has worried me from the start. Despite what Trump supporters claimed, while he was indeed being harassed by the courts, the media was going easy on him during the primaries. Now that he's the presumptive nominee, they are going to unload on him. On top of that, Biden has a massive campaign warchest while Trump is short on cash and having to spend much of what he has on his defense.

It makes me sick, but I expect within three or four months, the polls are going to show a massive shift towards Biden. It will be like 2021-2023 never happened. The useful idiots have short memories and are easily manipulated.

---

Yes the Carrol trial, the GA trial and the NY real estate trial were all the left going "easy" on Trump.

The Carrol ruling will look worse and worse as Carrol reveals how big of a farce of a trial that is.
The NY real estate trial is a similar sham.
The GA trial is a fantastic dumpster fire that will see the prosecutors turn into the prosecuted for corruption and potentially reveal the ties with DC.

The left thought they were ensnaring Trump, but it is possible that they have set traps against themselves. Time will tell.

---

As I said in my post, all this was the courts taking on Trump. The media has gone relatively easy on him up until this point. That is going to change in a big way between now and the election. They are going to make Biden look like the guy who saved the country and Trump to look like the antiChrist. All Biden's screw ups with Covid, the economy, and foreign policy will be glossed over. Add in Biden's massive campaign spending/lies and it is going to be a tough row to hoe. The fix is in.

---

The media that can be community noted on X.
MSM is not as important anymore. Substack, podcasts, X. That is the new discourse battleground

Poll Media Opinion Feb 2023 Half of Americans think MSM misleads them. Just 25% think they don't.

Quote:

---

Half of Americans in a recent survey indicated they believe national news organizations intend to mislead, misinform or persuade the public to adopt a particular point of view through their reporting.

---

---

It's the other half that worries me. Despite their lies and obvious bias, the MSM still holds a lot of influence.

I'm on your side and I hope you're right. We shall see.

rgag12 said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

We've reached the stage of the election where polls don't matter, doncha know.

---

Polls only matter if your guy did well in them

---

This to infinity.

My belief is that polls are tools to good certain people nominated/elected. Getting Trump to be the GOP nominee is the ONLY chance Biden has to win, since he has already been able to "beat" Trump. In other words, the fraud and the issues Trump has are already accepted by the populace. So the regime has the path already cleared to get Trump defeated.via their MSM and the Dems controlling the purple states that Trump has to win to be President again.

I seriously doubt any GOP candidate could win in 2024, as their fraudulent activities are now legalized and looked past. But I do know that if Biden was running against anyone else, he wouldn't be able to be their nominee for sure, just from an enthusiasm point of view and not being able to debate. Instead, against Trump, because of the debate debacles of 2020, the MSM and Dems will never make Biden debate Trump. They couldn't keep him in the basement against DeSantis or Haley without suffering a great price, but against Trump, its no big deal. That's why they've had Gavin Nesom warming up in the bullpen, ready to come running in at any time. The dude has done everything but measure the drapes and order new china and crystal for the White House. He is their insurance in case Biden dies, falls ill, or somehow had another GOP candidate running instead of Trump.

Until the GOP can play the Dems game of ballot harvesting, mail-in balloting to get several votes per person, get more dead people to vote GOP, and bring in suitcases of ballots at certain voting precincts in the middle of the night, nothing will be any different from what the Dems created in 2020.

Is there anyone that believes Trump has a chance?

Interesting. 24% of voters don't like Biden OR Trump. Of that 24%, most choose Biden. Imagine that.

If only we had been warned this would happen. 😒 pic.twitter.com/shctZtkcqz

— Kristy 🇺🇲 (@FlaGirlKristy) February 1, 2024

How does that differ from any other election?

First, trump does have a chance. Not a great chance, but he has a very bad and very unpopular opponent.

Secondly, it will come down to 4 states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. By my calculations, Trump will need three of the four to get to 270. Biden will need two of the four.

Third, two bad candidates might make for low turnout. That can help Trump.

Ag87H2O said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Ag87H2O said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Ag87H2O said:

---

shiftyandquick said:

---

and this is before Biden et al. have launched their attacks against Trump. He will have a HUGE advantage in resources and money going into the election.

---

This is what has worried me from the start. Despite what Trump supporters claimed, while he was indeed being harassed by the courts, the media was going easy on him during the primaries. Now that he's the presumptive nominee, they are going to unload on him. On top of that, Biden has a massive campaign warchest while Trump is short on cash and having to spend much of what he has on his defense.

It makes me sick, but I expect within three or four months, the polls are going to show a massive shift towards Biden. It will be like 2021-2023 never happened. The useful idiots have short memories and are easily manipulated.

---

Yes the Carrol trial, the GA trial and the NY real estate trial were all the left going "easy" on Trump.

The Carrol ruling will look worse and worse as Carrol reveals how big of a farce of a trial that is.
The NY real estate trial is a similar sham.
The GA trial is a fantastic dumpster fire that will see the prosecutors turn into the prosecuted for corruption and potentially reveal the ties with DC.

The left thought they were ensnaring Trump, but it is possible that they have set traps against themselves. Time will tell.

---

As I said in my post, all this was the courts taking on Trump. The media has gone relatively easy on him up until this point. That is going to change in a big way between now and the election. They are going to make Biden look like the guy who saved the country and Trump to look like the antiChrist. All Biden's screw ups with Covid, the economy, and foreign policy will be glossed over. Add in Biden's massive campaign spending/lies and it is going to be a tough row to hoe. The fix is in.

---

The media that can be community noted on X.
MSM is not as important anymore. Substack, podcasts, X. That is the new discourse battleground

Poll Media Opinion Feb 2023 Half of Americans think MSM misleads them. Just 25% think they don't.

Quote:

---

Half of Americans in a recent survey indicated they believe national news organizations intend to mislead, misinform or persuade the public to adopt a particular point of view through their reporting.

---

---

It's the other half that worries me. Despite their lies and obvious bias, the MSM still holds a lot of influence.

I'm on your side and I hope you're right. We shall see.

---

Apologies if my tone was more antagonistic, just more of my blunt communication style.

I think in many ways we will see how that "25%" undecided break over the next several months. It will be a key thing to monitor like you said.

it is NOT a popular vote election - why do they do stupid national polls.

Ags77 said:

---

Third, two bad candidates might make-or-break a low turnout. That can help Trump.

---

In case you missed it, our elections are mailed in now. There is never going to be a "low" turnout in the cities of the states that matter. No longer is there an effort on the part of the voter. The registering, the mailed ballot requesting, the ballot collection, and the ballot drop off is well funded and done for them, whether they know it or not. There is no pressure on one side to have a good candidate. No need for good platform or policies. No need to be persuasive or inspiring. No need for GOTV concerts or rallies. They don't even need to campaign anymore.

I've been voting by mail for years, so yes I'm aware of mail in ballots. I just think this election will be a smaller turnout than 2020 because of the two unpopular choices.

Daddy said:

---

LMCane said:

---

2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;

Haley Leads Biden 1 On 1, But Trails When Third Party Candidates Are Added

As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.

Just like we told you would happen...

---

Lolol

Noone llikes Biden

Trumps selling out 70k at rallies

Oh but people are going pedal down to vote against him.

Who votes for the same passion as those that love
As those that hate

Biden who does no campaigning

If he were smart let's do a vote no to Donald let's see how many show up. Btw, this should scare the hell out of you America. I insure folks for s living. I speak to 1000 folks s year minimum. Noone likes what's going on in our country. Noone.

It's all bs..

The media is scared..

Anyone believing any polls believes media lies.

Trumps going to break the record on voting
Even with the cheat on.

---

Bolded points were true in 2020 too.

jja79 said:

---

Is there anyone that believes Trump has a chance?

---

Against the vegetable? Yes he has a chance.

Ags77 said:

---

I've been voting by mail for years, so yes I'm aware of mail in ballots. I just think this election will be a smaller turnout than 2020 because of the two unpopular choices.

---

But one is so unpopular, it will drive some turnout

2040huck said:

---

Ags77 said:

---

I've been voting by mail for years, so yes I'm aware of mail in ballots. I just think this election will be a smaller turnout than 2020 because of the two unpopular choices.

---

But one is so unpopular, it will drive some turnout

---

Oh for sure, trump will energize the vote for both parties. Biden's four years may keep the dem total down some, though.

I taught research methods/stats in grad school.
Assumptions are the key factor. Often assumptions are made that researchers don't realize are assumptions. These are the most dangerous errors.
One type of bad research is convenience sampling. You choose the participants because they are at a convenient place. You go to a mall and "randomly" choose people. One of many issues is the results are not generalizable. You got the opinions of people shopping in a mall in the middle of a workday. They probably have more discretional money and probably are mostly female.
Great research is quite difficult when it comes to social research and not things in a test tube.
In a political poll you obviously need to weigh the results with electoral votes. There is no need to poll California really because this is a very dark blue state.
You want likely voters but how do you capture them? By self-report? I posit that many non-voters will say they will vote. Even then are they honest about who they support? For example (not trying to stereotype) if the person taking the poll is Black and the participant is White they "may" not feel comfortable answering Trump. If they can anonymously drop a paper poll into a box the results will probably be more accurate. Combining several robust polls can make sense as this is meta-analysis. Obviously the 2016 polling was very inaccurate. What if anything did pollers learn from that?

Muy said:

---

zephyr88 said:

---

spider96 said:

---

---

Every one of these spreads are an embarrassment.

We have a corrupt, senile old man who is openly committing treason at the border and the "best" candidate that the republicans can drum up to replace him can't slaughter him by more than a couple points?

---

Do you illegal ballot stuffing, bro?

---

Obviously the polling isn't going to account for illegal voting.

Let's be real here...the Rs will need a 5%+ lead to overcome any voting shenanigans. Unfortunately, if there aren't any changes in these states with D legislatures, I'm afraid we're going to see the same outcome.

If Trump's plan is just to run again with no change in strategy, we're gonna lose again.

BigRobSA said:

---

All polls are trash. Unscientific gobbledygook.

---

Blue parachute for one reason only. I love that word.

Ags77 said:

---

First, trump does have a chance. Not a great chance, but he has a very bad and very unpopular opponent.

Secondly, it will come down to 4 states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. By my calculations, Trump will need three of the four to get to 270. Biden will need two of the four.

Third, two bad candidates might make for low turnout. That can help Trump.

---

Agreed. And Georgia has cleaned up their elections, which will help, hopefully, to protect the integrity of the votes in that state.

But the other three states you mentioned, along with Nevada and Wisconsin, are all run by Dem legislatures and governors. They are all-in on mail in ballots, ballot harvesting, and other schemes to get "votes" counted. Trump lost them in 2020, the GOP has lost every single big race in those states since then. It ain't changing this time, I can promise you that. If Ronna had a plan to fight this, it would've been seen in 2022. Instead, our Red Wave got aborted at the voting booth by those who really value killing babies and want to get high legally. Maybe, just maybe, in 2028, the GOP might be able to make a fight to beat their system. But we will probably run out Trump, Jr. as the MAGA crowd follows their leaders and we will be back to square one.

I'm amazed so many of you act like this is going to be a real election.

They're never going to let him win.

Nevada has a Republican governor.

JWinTX said:

---

Ags77 said:

---

First, trump does have a chance. Not a great chance, but he has a very bad and very unpopular opponent.

Secondly, it will come down to 4 states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. By my calculations, Trump will need three of the four to get to 270. Biden will need two of the four.

Third, two bad candidates might make for low turnout. That can help Trump.

---

Agreed. And Georgia has cleaned up their elections, which will help, hopefully, to protect the integrity of the votes in that state.

But the other three states you mentioned, along with Nevada and Wisconsin, are all run by Dem legislatures and governors. They are all-in on mail in ballots, ballot harvesting, and other schemes to get "votes" counted. Trump lost them in 2020, the GOP has lost every single big race in those states since then. It ain't changing this time, I can promise you that. If Ronna had a plan to fight this, it would've been seen in 2022. Instead, our Red Wave got aborted at the voting booth by those who really value killing babies and want to get high legally. Maybe, just maybe, in 2028, the GOP might be able to make a fight to beat their system. But we will probably run out Trump, Jr. as the MAGA crowd follows their leaders and we will be back to square one.

---

I put Nevada and Wisconsin in the Dem column. Georgia is kind of a toss up, imo. Pennsylvania is likely to go Biden, imo.

Trump would need Michigan ( possible) Arizona ( possible) and Georgia ( possible) to get to 270 in my calculations.

I still say Trump has a chance. Not a great chance, but a chance nonetheless.

Rockdoc said:

---

jja79 said:

---

Is there anyone that believes Trump has a chance?

---

Against the vegetable? Yes he has a chance.

---

I think you're very naive.

LMCane said:

---

Interesting. 24% of voters don't like Biden OR Trump. Of that 24%, most choose Biden. Imagine that.

If only we had been warned this would happen. 😒 pic.twitter.com/shctZtkcqz

— Kristy 🇺🇲 (@FlaGirlKristy) February 1, 2024

---

LMCane, help me understand something.

Earlier, you were very pro DeSantis and anti Trump. I get that. I was pro-DeSantis, but not anti-Trump. I just thought DeSantis was the better candidate.

Jump to today. DeSantis is out of the race, and by all reasonable analysis, Trump will be the Republican nominee. But, we still see you dropping on Trump ad nauseum.

If you were conservative enough to support DeSantis, Trump is the only choice from a policy perspective. So my question is, who are you going to support in the General? Do you have some rationale for trying to damage Trump at this stage in the game?

jja79 said:

---

Is there anyone that believes Trump has a chance?

---

Yes. Yes, I do. Is he the ideal candidate? Far from it. Is he undoubtedly better than Biden? Without question.

More and more people are realizing this simple logic every. single. day.

Biden's numbers are down in the African American community, as well as the Hispanic community. It won't take many of those two demographics to throw the election to Trump, sans any voting shenanigans from the left.

Tex100 said:

---

Daddy said:

---

LMCane said:

---

2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;

Haley Leads Biden 1 On 1, But Trails When Third Party Candidates Are Added

As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.

Just like we told you would happen...

---

Lolol

Noone llikes Biden

Trumps selling out 70k at rallies

Oh but people are going pedal down to vote against him.

Who votes for the same passion as those that love
As those that hate

Biden who does no campaigning

If he were smart let's do a vote no to Donald let's see how many show up. Btw, this should scare the hell out of you America. I insure folks for s living. I speak to 1000 folks s year minimum. Noone likes what's going on in our country. Noone.

It's all bs..

The media is scared..

Anyone believing any polls believes media lies.

Trumps going to break the record on voting
Even with the cheat on.

---

Bolded points were true in 2020 too.

---

This is true. But in 2020, people didn't know what a Biden administration was going to bring and assumed in Biden's favor.

It's different now.

Most are not happy and don't want to see another 4 years of what we've had.

jja79 said:

---

Is there anyone that believes Trump has a chance?

---

Zero chance. None. It blows my mind that anyone can envision him walking back into the White House.

Now to be fair, I don't think any Republican would have much of a chance at this point. There's not a single candidate where I'd be confident simply because the population is not what it was. Reagan would be 50/50 at best now. This is not the country we grew up in.

Joes said:

---

jja79 said:

---

Is there anyone that believes Trump has a chance?

---

Zero chance. None. It blows my mind that anyone can envision him walking back into the White House.

Now to be fair, I don't think any Republican would have much of a chance at this point. There's not a single candidate where I'd be confident simply because the population is not what it was. Reagan would be 50/50 at best now. This is not the country we grew up in.

---

Reagan would never be nominated by the GOP now.

Ags77 said:

---

First, trump does have a chance. Not a great chance, but he has a very bad and very unpopular opponent.

Secondly, it will come down to 4 states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. By my calculations, Trump will need three of the four to get to 270. Biden will need two of the four.

Third, two bad candidates might make for low turnout. That can help Trump.

---

LMAO

so your theory is a low turnout election would help the Republican.

and then the Republicans choose the VERY WORST candidate possible who will absolutely drive turnout from every democrat and leftist in the country.

do you understand how that doesn't make logical sense?

Follow the RCP average…not single polls…

Ags77 said:

---

JWinTX said:

---

Ags77 said:

---

First, trump does have a chance. Not a great chance, but he has a very bad and very unpopular opponent.

Secondly, it will come down to 4 states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. By my calculations, Trump will need three of the four to get to 270. Biden will need two of the four.

Third, two bad candidates might make for low turnout. That can help Trump.

---

Agreed. And Georgia has cleaned up their elections, which will help, hopefully, to protect the integrity of the votes in that state.

But the other three states you mentioned, along with Nevada and Wisconsin, are all run by Dem legislatures and governors. They are all-in on mail in ballots, ballot harvesting, and other schemes to get "votes" counted. Trump lost them in 2020, the GOP has lost every single big race in those states since then. It ain't changing this time, I can promise you that. If Ronna had a plan to fight this, it would've been seen in 2022. Instead, our Red Wave got aborted at the voting booth by those who really value killing babies and want to get high legally. Maybe, just maybe, in 2028, the GOP might be able to make a fight to beat their system. But we will probably run out Trump, Jr. as the MAGA crowd follows their leaders and we will be back to square one.

---

I put Nevada and Wisconsin in the Dem column. Georgia is kind of a toss up, imo. Pennsylvania is likely to go Biden, imo.

Trump would need Michigan ( possible) Arizona ( possible) and Georgia ( possible) to get to 270 in my calculations.

I still say Trump has a chance. Not a great chance, but a chance nonetheless.

---

According to the current RCP averages, Trump has a lead in every state except PA, and as of today, it's Biden +0.2…so essentially a dead heat…

texagbeliever said:

---

LMCane said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Wow, you just copy and pasted another hot take from the same crappy Quinipac poll. Thanks so much for your contributions.

---

LMAO you sound a bit upset my friend.

You yourself were posting polls showing Trump ahead.

now suddenly you are crying when polls show Biden winning the election.

Like so many of us were stating for months and years, as soon as Trump wraps up the nomination real polls will start to be released in the next 8 months showing Biden winning Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Get used to it.

---

1. We are not friends.
2. You push fake news harder than most on this site.

---

Anyone who really thinks they have 'friends' on an anonymous political forum in todays climate needs to seek help.
Chances are, even if those who agree on many things here, if they were to meet in person they'd never consider them someone they'd hang with. Unless they both live in a basement.

jrdaustin said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Interesting. 24% of voters don't like Biden OR Trump. Of that 24%, most choose Biden. Imagine that.

If only we had been warned this would happen. 😒 pic.twitter.com/shctZtkcqz

— Kristy 🇺🇲 (@FlaGirlKristy) February 1, 2024

---

LMCane, help me understand something.

Earlier, you were very pro DeSantis and anti Trump. I get that. I was pro-DeSantis, but not anti-Trump. I just thought DeSantis was the better candidate.

Jump to today. DeSantis is out of the race, and by all reasonable analysis, Trump will be the Republican nominee. But, we still see you dropping on Trump ad nauseum.

If you were conservative enough to support DeSantis, Trump is the only choice from a policy perspective. So my question is, who are you going to support in the General? Do you have some rationale for trying to damage Trump at this stage in the game?

---

TDS is full display by LMCane, who is a cheerleader for Trump's demise at the expense of the success and well-being of the country. Advice to all of the LMCane's out there... stop being a volunteer for the left by spinning negative views or controversial news reports of the likely Republican candidate. It's like you want to bathe in failure by not supporting our only shot of a 2nd Biden presidency... Any rational conservative would weigh policy benefits over personal likeability.

How has staph not got rid of MFBarnes version 14? I mean, we all know who this OP is at this point don't we?

jrdaustin said:

---

jja79 said:

---

Is there anyone that believes Trump has a chance?

---

Yes. Yes, I do. Is he the ideal candidate? Far from it. Is he undoubtedly better than Biden? Without question.

More and more people are realizing this simple logic every. single. day.

Biden's numbers are down in the African American community, as well as the Hispanic community. It won't take many of those two demographics to throw the election to Trump, sans any voting shenanigans from the left.

---

I would love to here someone tell Trump....People voted for you but they still think you are far from the ideal candidate.

His equating a vote to a consideration of his greatness knows no bounds.

I get a lot of grief about giving people grief about their adulation of Trump. But I, like I believe most who will vote for him, are doing it out of necessity, not choice. So I don't understand why if you vote for him you must kiss the ring.

Those swing voters who are unhappy with Biden will hopefully vote Republican this election. But in the 4 years after, if things are better, they'll just as easily swing the other way.