BlueTaze said:

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Betting markets have far surpassed polls in election predictability.

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Absolutely. I think Biden is still somehow around a 36 percent chance to be 're-elected.' But personally, I feel like that over-states his prospects as his approval rating is just absolute garbage and there is nothing domestically, or internationally, he is going to be able to "do himself" over the next 10 months to shift that.

Even today, PredictIt has Biden winning:

Biden 48
Trump 44

this is REAL HUMANS such as myself betting real money on who they think will win.

I wish we could set up a similar platform here on TexAgs

so after the election all those thinking Trump is going to ever be President again would be paying for a few months of my vacation in the Amalfi Coast.

Conventional wisdom said Trump couldn't win in 2016. This historian's 'keys' said he would. What are those keys telling us today?
Published: Feb. 5, 2024 at 5:25 p.m. ET By Brett Arends

Biden holds an edge this November based on American University professor Allan Lichtman's analysis of 13 historical predictors.

Five of the 13 historical predictors of victory favor Biden, while three favor Trump, and the rest are still up for grabs, Lichtman told MarketWatch in an interview.


Professor who called Trump in 2016 now says Biden 2024...

LMCane said:

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Conventional wisdom said Trump couldn't win in 2016. This historian's 'keys' said he would. What are those keys telling us today?
Published: Feb. 5, 2024 at 5:25 p.m. ET By Brett Arends

Biden holds an edge this November based on American University professor Allan Lichtman's analysis of 13 historical predictors.

Five of the 13 historical predictors of victory favor Biden, while three favor Trump, and the rest are still up for grabs, Lichtman told MarketWatch in an interview.


Professor who called Trump in 2016 now says Biden 2024...

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That septuagenarian historian, and author…are clowns.

Quote:

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This time around, Lichtman says, President Biden is an incumbent running for re-election (Key No. 3), has not faced a serious challenge for his party's nomination (Key No. 2) and has made major policy changes (Key No. 7).

(The keys make no judgment about whether the policy changes undertaken are for the better.)
And the long-term economic trend is running Biden's way: "Real" or after-inflation per capita economic growth over the past four years has equaled or exceeded the average growth rate during the previous two presidential terms (Key No. 6).

It has, too. I ran the numbers. Based on International Monetary Fund data, the U.S. economy is on track to post average real growth of 2.5% per person during the 202125 presidential term. The average from 2012 to 2020? Just under 1%.

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Big surprise Lichtman has full on TDS and wrote a whole book on 'the case for impeachment' vs. Trump. Very weak sourcing, even for you!

LMCane said:

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Even today, PredictIt has Biden winning:

Biden 48
Trump 44

this is REAL HUMANS such as myself betting real money on who they think will win.

I wish we could set up a similar platform here on TexAgs

so after the election all those thinking Trump is going to ever be President again would be paying for a few months of my vacation in the Amalfi Coast.

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New day, new L's.

Trump +124, Biden +200 Link

Trump -120, Biden +120 Link 2

Great use of Italics. I look forward to you losing a whole bunch of money in November!