Logos Stick said:

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Lol

Labor participation rate is at 62.5%

Lowest rate since 1977.

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It's been in the low 60s for 15 years. Looking at the age demographic breakdown and the introduction of AI, this number is going to get worse. Not better.

Sims said:

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Is that chart available as 1)adjusted for inflation or 2)per capita?

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not sure it's adjusted for inflation because service costs and rates are important as well. Delinquencies may be more our concern


People who are able to service their debt are doing fine but clearly, there are those falling behind or will fall away if/when there is a rise in rates. Banks are extending more credit than ever and consumers with the access are taking on more even debt. (Part of this is also banks are better at managing and pricing the risk to extending out to 'good credits' isnt as much a concern to them.)

https://newsroom.transunion.com/q3-2023-ciir/

Quote:

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High interest rates and higher-than-expected costs for goods and services continue to squeeze the wallets of American consumers. This has led to many continuing to leverage their existing credit account lines more than ever. At the same time, affordability challenges for homes and automobiles, as well as growing concerns over rising debt service costs, have resulted in consumers opening fewer new credit accounts

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NY Fed shows all time high debt (likely due to a 15 years of ZIRP)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc


and now we'll see what happens in the face of higher rates
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/11/credit-card-delinquencies-continue-to-rise-who-is-missing-payments/

Quote:

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Delinquency rates on most credit product types have been rising from historic lows since the middle of 2021. The transition rate into delinquency remains below the pre-pandemic level for mortgages, which comprise the largest share of household debt, but auto loan and credit card delinquencies have surpassed pre-pandemic levels and continue to rise....
Even though the increase in delinquency appears to be broad based across income groups and regions, it is disproportionately driven by Millennials, those with auto or student loans, and those with relatively higher credit card balances.

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Quote:

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All the GDP growth is from spending

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True, but there's a difference between consumer spending and government spending. Furthermore, I would argue there is a difference between good spending and bad.

You cannot spend yourself rich but hey you'll look good doing it

I think delinquency is certainly the key factor. Looking below, as a ratio of disposal income, credit card debt appears to be inline with what has been a mostly flat trend over the last 10 - 12 years.

I deal with just regular folks for work. Not one of them is happy about food prices, rent etc. It's a daily conversation. Even simpletons realize what a cluster**** Biden has been. Hopefully it makes the difference even with all the cheating come election time.

What happens to that chart as rates stay the same or increase, especially with high (5%+) inflation?
Is the flat trend causal or just correlated to the ZIRP environment and easy money policy we've had since 2008?

Old McDonald said:

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by many economic indicators, the economy is strong:
-unemployment at near record lows
-wage growth outpacing inflation since march 2023
-all time high domestic oil production
-stock market near all time highs
-inflation rates cooled off significantly compared to summer 2022 highs
-strong gdp growth over the last year
-fed signaling rate cuts next year
-no recession, save for maybe 2 quarters in 2022

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Counterpoint: dem is in office and dems are undoubtedly bad
For the economy.

tysker said:

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What happens to that chart as rates stay the same or increase, especially with high (5%+) inflation?
Is the flat trend casual or just correlated to the ZIRP environment and easy money policy we've had since 2008?

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My main takeaway is the relationship between the red and blue lines.

While total debt does increase (blue), total debt as a function of disposable income is fairly flat (meaning disposal income increased). I think this is just indicative of consumer management of their own credit indebtedness. I'm definitely not trying to disprove the notion that credit card debt is at an all time high and by all accounts appears to be poised as a significant headwind to consumer spending. I was just pointing out that I think it may be wrong to say any time before the very near past should be the starting point for where we start to measure a breaking point. I would say consumers were comfortable with credit card debt probably up until very recently...to your point, serviceability is becoming a big issue...but a recent one.

I guess they forgot to mention that wages are NOT keeping up with Biden's inflation crisis. Real wages are down over 5 percent since Biden entered the Oval Office. Since he took office, the average worker has lost over $4,900 in real wages.

Old McDonald said:

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Tramp96 said:

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Want to address a giant like Dell laying off an estimated 15-20% of their workforce since August? And many of those cannot find jobs?

And Dell is not the only one.

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sure: the tech sector has struggled in the last 18 months. my company (big tech) also had 20% layoffs last year. that's one area where the economy has not been strong recently.

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All your eco babble leaves out massive expansion of the money supply and debt at 145% of GDP. That is temporary fluff that is going to rot in a hurry. Just dangerous can kicking gimmicks like draining the Strategic Oil Reserve around election time. This rat infested admin is nothing but crooks

Congrats you bought in to the lies yet again.

Sims said:

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tysker said:

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What happens to that chart as rates stay the same or increase, especially with high (5%+) inflation?
Is the flat trend casual or just correlated to the ZIRP environment and easy money policy we've had since 2008?

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My main takeaway is the relationship between the red and blue lines.

While total debt does increase (blue), total debt as a function of disposable income is fairly flat (meaning disposal income increased). I think this is just indicative of consumer management of their own credit indebtedness. I'm definitely not trying to disprove the notion that credit card debt is at an all time high and by all accounts appears to be poised as a significant headwind to consumer spending. I was just pointing out that I think it may be wrong to say any time before the very near past should be the starting point for where we start to measure a breaking point. I would say consumers were comfortable with credit card debt probably up until very recently...to your point, serviceability is becoming a big issue...but a recent one.

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I think we're on the same page. Debt can be a slow death that hits you all at once. Like many aspects of finance, it can be an escalator up and an elevator down.

I think there are lots of people spending more than they can now, knowing prices are just going to go up, which is why the economy has an underlying quality. People live that YOLO life and don't care about when the bill is due.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-layoffs-in-the-spotlight-again-as-2024-kicks-off-with-xerox-job-cuts-5f424933

Tech layoffs in the spotlight again as 2024 kicks off with Xerox job cuts

https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-us-these-are-companies-making-cuts-2024?op=1

The full list of major US companies slashing staff next year, from Nike to Intel

• 2023's job cuts aren't the end of layoffs, with further reductions on the cards in 2024.
• Companies like Nike, Intel, and Citigroup have announced plans for cuts in the new year.

tysker said:

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Sims said:

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tysker said:

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What happens to that chart as rates stay the same or increase, especially with high (5%+) inflation?
Is the flat trend casual or just correlated to the ZIRP environment and easy money policy we've had since 2008?

---

My main takeaway is the relationship between the red and blue lines.

While total debt does increase (blue), total debt as a function of disposable income is fairly flat (meaning disposal income increased). I think this is just indicative of consumer management of their own credit indebtedness. I'm definitely not trying to disprove the notion that credit card debt is at an all time high and by all accounts appears to be poised as a significant headwind to consumer spending. I was just pointing out that I think it may be wrong to say any time before the very near past should be the starting point for where we start to measure a breaking point. I would say consumers were comfortable with credit card debt probably up until very recently...to your point, serviceability is becoming a big issue...but a recent one.

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I think we're on the same page. Debt can be a slow death that hits you all at once. Like many aspects of finance, it can be an escalator up and an elevator down.

I think there are lots of people spending more than they can now, knowing prices are just going to go up, which is why the economy has an underlying quality. People live that YOLO life and don't care about when the bill is due.

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Consumer credit debt is at a record high.

AggieVictor10 said:

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Counterpoint: dem is in office and dems are undoubtedly bad
For the economy.

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there are plenty of people whose perception of the economy essentially boils down to whether the party they identify with is in office. those people are unserious and can be ignored on the subject.

Time to buy put options, a lot of put options?

edited for clarity

Went to dinner tonight at a brew house restaurant. Almost no customers on a Friday night at 7:30PM. No one even at the bar when I left. Good neighborhood, decent food, good beers.

Couple of years ago there was a wait to be seated every weekend. This is not a good economy.

The vast majority of folks who have no issues with assuming massive loads of debt for crap they don't need staggers me.

Opalka said:

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Always blaming the "MSM" for something you don't like won't cut it. I read MarketWatch most days, and they report on what ECONOMISTS say. Now if you want to say that most economists are "in on the lies", go for it. I don't know where you get more reliable information, but going to the grocery store and complaining about the price that manufacturers and retailers charge isn't about "the economy". They want to keep their profits as high as possible, so don't look for them to rush to lower their prices. Meanwhile, the stock market is great, people still are buying big ticket items like cars, and the unemployment rate is low. Gas is also below $3 in most of the country. If you still want to be a negative Nancy about the economy, go for it.

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LOL, here ya go:

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023
8.7 million Americans, a record high, hold multiple jobs to make ends meet


https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/initial-us-employment-reports-overstated-jobs

It's easy to lie about the economy and the numbers when they are constantly later revised. It's always interesting how they are revised downward/upward in a direction that would indicate worse than expected results but the MSM has already moved on to the next month's made up numbers.

Logos Stick said:

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8.7 million Americans, a record high, hold multiple jobs to make ends meet

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as a percentage of the working population, this is approximately in line with what it's been for the last 30 years

It really makes no sense. Cost of everything, especially food, has skyrocketed in Boise. But restaurants and stores are continuously full. I make way more than average and I've cut down on eating out dramatically because of the massive inflation. But the average person is spending like mad. All on credit, I suppose.

When will that catch up with them…? Or will it…? Restaurants almost seem more packed than before. And shopping centers parking lots always seem close to capacity. I know Boise is blowing up and our economy is stable compared to most, but this seems unsustainable.

We are in good company on the debt situation - USPIGS.

Logos Stick said:

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Opalka said:

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Always blaming the "MSM" for something you don't like won't cut it. I read MarketWatch most days, and they report on what ECONOMISTS say. Now if you want to say that most economists are "in on the lies", go for it. I don't know where you get more reliable information, but going to the grocery store and complaining about the price that manufacturers and retailers charge isn't about "the economy". They want to keep their profits as high as possible, so don't look for them to rush to lower their prices. Meanwhile, the stock market is great, people still are buying big ticket items like cars, and the unemployment rate is low. Gas is also below $3 in most of the country. If you still want to be a negative Nancy about the economy, go for it.

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LOL, here ya go:

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023
8.7 million Americans, a record high, hold multiple jobs to make ends meet


https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/initial-us-employment-reports-overstated-jobs

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Yep

A lot of companies have pushed the layoffs out to 1st Quarter of 2024, its going to get ugly, but certain posters will still push the propaganda.

Layoffs all over the place in my industry in 2023. 10-15% pretty much the norm.

Perhaps it's all credit.

I saw an article on individual CC debt where it is now at record levels.

Can't find it now though.

Americans' credit card debt hits a record $1 trillion


https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/10/24/americans-now-have-1-trillion-in-credit-card-debt-heres-why/?sh=1fd47a4d65a1


Credit card debt has grown to an all-time high, recently surpassing then-record levels observed before the Covid-19 pandemic. In the latest numbers from the New York Federal Reserve, total consumer credit debt exceeded $1.03 trillion, compared to $806 billion pre-pandemic. Consumers today are navigating inflation, rising interest rates, an end to pandemic-related stimulus checks and lenders taking a more risk-averse approach to personal and small-business loans.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careers/us-employment-reports-greatly-exaggerated-over-400-000-jobs-mistakenly-added-to-total/ar-AA1mDpMj?cvid=96168676ee6b47d58266baefc9680e10&ei=18

https://nypost.com/2024/01/06/business/initial-us-employment-reports-overstated-by-439000-jobs-in-2023/

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

checking in here. sadly. feb.

its brutal out there.

BadMoonRisin said:

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checking in here. sadly. feb.

its brutal out there.

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Yep

samurai_science said:

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Americans' credit card debt hits a record $1 trillion


https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/10/24/americans-now-have-1-trillion-in-credit-card-debt-heres-why/?sh=1fd47a4d65a1


Credit card debt has grown to an all-time high, recently surpassing then-record levels observed before the Covid-19 pandemic. In the latest numbers from the New York Federal Reserve, total consumer credit debt exceeded $1.03 trillion, compared to $806 billion pre-pandemic. Consumers today are navigating inflation, rising interest rates, an end to pandemic-related stimulus checks and lenders taking a more risk-averse approach to personal and small-business loans.

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the total may be at an all time high (because inflation + population growth), but debt payments as a percent of people's disposable income is pretty normal compared to the last 40 years

samurai_science said:

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careers/us-employment-reports-greatly-exaggerated-over-400-000-jobs-mistakenly-added-to-total/ar-AA1mDpMj?cvid=96168676ee6b47d58266baefc9680e10&ei=18

https://nypost.com/2024/01/06/business/initial-us-employment-reports-overstated-by-439000-jobs-in-2023/

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

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We laid off a number of IT employees.
Only 1 has been re-hired so far. No one is getting any calls.
And we are in the tech mecca of Austin.

Almost all major companies have frozen hiring or are restricting hiring. Oh yeah, plenty of jobs in India though.

But the party workers diligently parrot the narrative

BadMoonRisin said:

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checking in here. sadly. feb.

its brutal out there.

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Maybe all the folks who think this is a great economy should quit their jobs and look for better opportunities.