The "strong economy" narrative is beginning ahead of the election

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Tramp96
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In reply to Old McDonald • 11:10a, 1/5/24
Old McDonald said:
jja79 said:
I live in a 55+ community so I spend a lot of time with a group of people you would think are done working. It's astounding the number of my friends who are looking for some type of employment because the Biden disaster has made living on a fixed income almost impossible.
genuinely sorry to hear that. many people struggle even during strong economies. i wish your friends the best.
Quote:
Even though I'm 67 I'm still working and spend a lot of my time reviewing credit reports so I think I have a pretty good handle on the real economy and it's not good. People are drowning in debt, a lot of it to buy groceries and necessities.
i don't doubt that's what you see, available data i can find suggests consumer debt in aggregate is rising post-pandemic but still on the general trajectory it's been on since the GFC.

Quote:
The only group with a higher labor participation rate from 20 years ago is those 55+. Those 54 and younger have seen a decline in the participation rate. That's per the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yes, people needing to work later into their careers to comfortably retire has been a bad trend for a couple decades now. silver lining, labor participation has been mostly stagnant for the 55+ age group since the GFC. delayed adolescence has people in their early 20s entering the workforce later. teen employment has all but collapsed.

Want to address a giant like Dell laying off an estimated 15-20% of their workforce since August? And many of those cannot find jobs?

And Dell is not the only one.
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Sims
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11:11a, 1/5/24
AG
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to samurai_science • 11:11a, 1/5/24
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Old McDonald
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 11:12a, 1/5/24
Maroon Dawn said:
Gotta love the leftists on here!

"Sure most folks are struggling to afford food, gas and rent and Bidens spending like a drunk sailor is pushing inflation to all time highs but if you just ignore that, it's a FANTASTIC economy for the wealthy on Wall Street!"
our inflation woes were caused primarily by covid relief spending bills passed in 2020 and 2021. for that, trump and biden share blame. and unfortunately, there is no candidate who can bring back 2019 prices. best we can do is cool inflation rates back to target, which we are close to having accomplished already.
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Maroon Dawn
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In reply to Old McDonald • 11:14a, 1/5/24
AG
Old McDonald said:
Maroon Dawn said:
Gotta love the leftists on here!

"Sure most folks are struggling to afford food, gas and rent and Bidens spending like a drunk sailor is pushing inflation to all time highs but if you just ignore that, it's a FANTASTIC economy for the wealthy on Wall Street!"
our inflation woes were caused primarily by covid relief spending bills passed in 2020 and 2021. for that, trump and biden share blame. and unfortunately, there is no candidate who can bring back 2019 prices. best we can do is cool inflation rates back to target, which we are close to having accomplished already.


Biden is spending more now than under COVID but without its excuse. He is 100% the problem
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Old McDonald
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In reply to Tramp96 • 11:17a, 1/5/24
Tramp96 said:
Want to address a giant like Dell laying off an estimated 15-20% of their workforce since August? And many of those cannot find jobs?

And Dell is not the only one.
sure: the tech sector has struggled in the last 18 months. my company (big tech) also had 20% layoffs last year. that's one area where the economy has not been strong recently.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 11:17a, 1/5/24
AG
Maroon Dawn said:
Old McDonald said:
Maroon Dawn said:
Gotta love the leftists on here!

"Sure most folks are struggling to afford food, gas and rent and Bidens spending like a drunk sailor is pushing inflation to all time highs but if you just ignore that, it's a FANTASTIC economy for the wealthy on Wall Street!"
our inflation woes were caused primarily by covid relief spending bills passed in 2020 and 2021. for that, trump and biden share blame. and unfortunately, there is no candidate who can bring back 2019 prices. best we can do is cool inflation rates back to target, which we are close to having accomplished already.


Biden is spending more now than under COVID but without its excuse. He is 100% the problem

This poster is a liberal. What do you expect him to claim?
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Tramp96
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 11:18a, 1/5/24
Maroon Dawn said:
Old McDonald said:
Maroon Dawn said:
Gotta love the leftists on here!

"Sure most folks are struggling to afford food, gas and rent and Bidens spending like a drunk sailor is pushing inflation to all time highs but if you just ignore that, it's a FANTASTIC economy for the wealthy on Wall Street!"
our inflation woes were caused primarily by covid relief spending bills passed in 2020 and 2021. for that, trump and biden share blame. and unfortunately, there is no candidate who can bring back 2019 prices. best we can do is cool inflation rates back to target, which we are close to having accomplished already.


Biden is spending more now than under COVID but without its excuse. He is 100% the problem

Yeah, like that boondoggle of an "infrastructure" bill that was however many trillions of dollars and that doesn't actually do anything to improve the actual infrastructure, doesn't lead to job creation, doesn't do anything but increase inflation and line the pockets of Biden's donors.
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Old McDonald
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 11:24a, 1/5/24
Maroon Dawn said:
Old McDonald said:
Maroon Dawn said:
Gotta love the leftists on here!

"Sure most folks are struggling to afford food, gas and rent and Bidens spending like a drunk sailor is pushing inflation to all time highs but if you just ignore that, it's a FANTASTIC economy for the wealthy on Wall Street!"
our inflation woes were caused primarily by covid relief spending bills passed in 2020 and 2021. for that, trump and biden share blame. and unfortunately, there is no candidate who can bring back 2019 prices. best we can do is cool inflation rates back to target, which we are close to having accomplished already.


Biden is spending more now than under COVID but without its excuse. He is 100% the problem
false:

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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Old McDonald • 11:27a, 1/5/24
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Tramp96 • 11:28a, 1/5/24
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richardag
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In reply to jja79 • 11:31a, 1/5/24
jja79 said:
For four years I heard the stock market isn't the economy. Uncle Joe was going to build Main Street not Wall Street. Take that garbage somewhere else.
The stock market is often not indicative of the economy. As the Fed prints money the disconnection grows. Unfortunately, there eventually will be a reckoning the debt is how bad.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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jja79
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In reply to richardag • 11:34a, 1/5/24
AG
My point was he mentioned the stock market in his good things list. We heard ad naseum that the stock market isn't the economy. As any lying democrat does he didn't even remember the rules he was operating under.
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richardag
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In reply to jja79 • 11:45a, 1/5/24
jja79 said:
My point was he mentioned the stock market in his good things list. We heard ad naseum that the stock market isn't the economy. As any lying democrat does he didn't even remember the rules he was operating under.
Agreed. If memory serves most conservatives have pointed this disconnect repeatedly over the years, regardless of the administration in office. Then a poster brings this up as a gotcha without a hint of reality.

To add to this nonsense, IMHO if inflation (real inflation not some BS federal cherry picking) is accounted for in the Stock Market indexes we still are below records.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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LMCane
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In reply to Artorias • 12:09p, 1/5/24
you know why that is going to work?

because the media will be 100% covering Trump and his trials rather than the reality of leftist rule.

you know what would force the media to cover Biden?

nominating someone other than Trump who is able to discuss economic issues with a fluency.
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UTExan
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12:14p, 1/5/24
CNN's SE Cupp (why can't these people have regular names??) advised Biden to lock down the southern border because "it's a real crisis". That's establishment-speak for "you're going to lose unless you do this…"
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
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Krombopulos Michael
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12:25p, 1/5/24
Narrative vs. Reality...... The devil is in the details.












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Old McDonald
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 12:59p, 1/5/24
DallasAg 94 said:
You sound like you're about to hit the panic button and abandon Biden.

I can sense in your tone and change in rhetoric... you probably feel the layoffs and fear getting caught up in it.

I rarely like to see people lose their jobs, but if by chance you get laid off and open a lemonade stand, Let us know and I'd gladly buy not 1... but 2 lemonades from you.

Waddle Waddle.
lemonade stand market is oversaturated. if i open an iced tea stand, would you buy two teas from me instead?
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Viper16jr
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In reply to Old McDonald • 1:03p, 1/5/24
AG
Hey Old Mac... since you keep referring to FRED data, maybe you can help me understand how REPOS affect the economy/overall market.

For the first time in history, since 2021, we've seen unprecedented "off the charts" numbers with reverse repurchase agreements.

Any idea how these 24hr transactions play a factor in market dynamics?

“We're Americans, we'd rather die on our feet, than live on our knees."
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Old McDonald
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In reply to jja79 • 1:04p, 1/5/24
jja79 said:
I pulled the over 55 participation rate since you seem to love stats. What I see in the real world is hopelessness and despair like I've never seen in my life. The security of the country has been destroyed intentionally by your guy. We're engaged in 2 wars one of which we have no business in whatsoever. Taxpayers are on the hook to pay the travel costs for a drug addict, tax cheat, gun felon who flies on AF1. What an F'd up country Joe Biden has turned this into.
of course i love stats, it's how we measure things. like the economy, for instance.
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Krombopulos Michael
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In reply to Old McDonald • 1:14p, 1/5/24
Old McDonald said:
DallasAg 94 said:
You sound like you're about to hit the panic button and abandon Biden.

I can sense in your tone and change in rhetoric... you probably feel the layoffs and fear getting caught up in it.

I rarely like to see people lose their jobs, but if by chance you get laid off and open a lemonade stand, Let us know and I'd gladly buy not 1... but 2 lemonades from you.

Waddle Waddle.
lemonade stand market is oversaturated. if i open an iced tea stand, would you buy two teas from me instead?


Car/Boat/RV RepoMen, Gambling, Porn/OnlyFans, Mental Health, Military Hardware, and Business Foreclosure industries are doing awesome under Biden! So are government jobs. Same with Dollar General/Dollar Tree.

Meanwhile Commercial/Residential Real Estate is getting slaughtered not only in decreasing sale prices but on transactions too. There were bank failures that were greater than all of 2008 back in March 2023, without massive emergency lending, that would have collapsed the banking sector.


Those are all signs of a terribly un-health economy.


Is that the type of GDP/over all US economy you want your boy Biden to run on?

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Old McDonald
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In reply to Viper16jr • 1:22p, 1/5/24
don't know much about rrps. all i know is the fed sometimes uses them to maintain monetary policy by borrowing from the financial system when there's too much liquidity, i.e. in high inflation environments like we saw in 2021-2022. so my guess is they've been high as part of the fed's response to inflation, and are now cooling off as inflation does. wish i could test this hypothesis by comparing the data to other periods of high inflation but unfortunately the FRED data only goes back to 2003.
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jja79
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In reply to Old McDonald • 1:34p, 1/5/24
AG
So the stats show older Americans are having to go back to work or take part time jobs to supplement their incomes in Joe Biden's American disaster.
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Jeeper79
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In reply to Logos Stick • 1:35p, 1/5/24
AG
Logos Stick said:
Lol

Labor participation rate is at 62.5%

Lowest rate since 1977.
Is there a source to plot labor participation over time?
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Old McDonald
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In reply to jja79 • 1:42p, 1/5/24
jja79 said:
So the stats show older Americans are having to go back to work or take part time jobs to supplement their incomes in Joe Biden's American disaster.
where do the stats show that? labor force participation for 55+ is pretty much unchanged since biden became president:

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Jeeper79
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In reply to Jeeper79 • 1:43p, 1/5/24
AG
Jeeper79 said:
Logos Stick said:
Lol

Labor participation rate is at 62.5%

Lowest rate since 1977.
Is there a source to plot labor participation over time?
ok found it. Looks like it bottomed out at 60.2% during the pandemic and has been climbing back ever since then. Most of trump's presidency was between 62.5% and 63% prior to the pandemic. Seems functionally the same as our current situation.
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Viper16jr
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In reply to Old McDonald • 1:52p, 1/5/24
AG
I asked the same question to Dr. Robert Dietz this morning at the GSABA conference, he's the Cheif Economist for NAHB. He was stumped, took my card, said he'd do some research and email me some info.

I mentioned to him the striking correlation with charting inflation values. Can't imagine what inflation might have been if these 24hr transactions weren't an option.

Sounds like a giant "legal" money laundering scheme.

A couple things are for certain... economic good times and economic bad times are clearly represented in that REPO chart.
“We're Americans, we'd rather die on our feet, than live on our knees."
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atmtws
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1:54p, 1/5/24
AG
Hot off the press:

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LMCane
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In reply to Gigem314 • 2:30p, 1/5/24
Gigem314 said:
There are posters on this very board who are perpetuating the administration and media narrative about the economy 'trending up' since last year. Yet they can't seem to find any real examples of economic improvement. They just echo the talking points that are told to them.

I would hope a lot of working voters who continue seeing costs increase aren't buying the BS.

And I think gas prices are going to skyrocket this summer. No matter how much they say 'All is well' with the economy, I don't think they'll be able to hide the truth as the year goes on.

I starred you but factually you are incorrect.

of course there is economic improvement over the last year:

unemployment numbers (nearly historic lows)
gas prices lower
median income rising
stock market MUCH higher for Dow Jones / NASDAQ / S&P and even now the Russell 2000 index
avoided a technical recession
car sales increasing
mortgage rates lowering
home prices rising

no one despises Biden and the left more than I do, but it's important to live in a reality based world.
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tysker
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In reply to Old McDonald • 2:49p, 1/5/24
AG
is a record amount of credit card debt a positive indicator as well?

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

how much of the 'strong gdp growth' and spending in the economy is due to an increase in debt?

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Sims
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In reply to tysker • 3:02p, 1/5/24
AG
Is that chart available as 1)adjusted for inflation or 2)per capita?
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samurai_science
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3:26p, 1/5/24
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/report-finds-austin-had-unusually-high-mass-layoffs-during-2023/

AUSTIN (KXAN) A December analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found the Austin metro saw an "unusually high level" of mass layoffs throughout most of 2023, particularly compared to larger metro regions like Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston.
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samurai_science
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3:26p, 1/5/24
UFCU had some layoffs today
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samurai_science
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In reply to tysker • 3:27p, 1/5/24
tysker said:
is a record amount of credit card debt a positive indicator as well?

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

how much of the 'strong gdp growth' and spending in the economy is due to an increase in debt?

All the GDP growth is from spending
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CDUB98
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In reply to Sims • 3:36p, 1/5/24
AG
Sims said:
Is that chart available as 1)adjusted for inflation or 2)per capita?
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