BTHOB said:
And, yet, the USA (and most of the rest of the world plus the media) continue to push for a delay / pause in full-scale ground invasion...
Israel waited too long. After the narrative started to change and the initial atrocities committed by Hamas began to fade into the 'last week' and 'two weeks ago' categories it became predictable that no full-scale ground invasion would take place.
I've predicted for over a week now that only minor ground incursions might take place, but nothing close to the 'full-scale invasion' that's been plastered all over the news. I guess we'll just continue to wait and see...
Unfortunately, if no full-scale ground invasion takes place, we'll be right back here in 5 years (or less) with another senseless terrorist tragedy inflicted upon the Israeli people.
Maybe/maybe not. I tend to agree but because I believe a general ground invasion right now would do more damage to Israel than most here would believe. I don't think it is so much a "waited too long" as much as "they were not ready and need to be smart".
A quote from me on the 9th:
Quote:
I don't begrudge them for what is about to happen but damn me if I don't think this is ultimately a lose/lose situation either for them.
I am not saying Israel will not be able to meet their immediate tactical objectives but as a total I figure a pyrrhic victory at best. If they get embroiled down in a OIF style occupation, it will probably break Israel. They cannot sustain that for long. If they go Battle of Fallujah method, they will lose a lot of soldiers and likely every single shred of PR they might be clinging to, period. The greatest and most effective HAMAS weapon of all time is a dead Palestinian civilian and there will be tons of them if a open engagement ground invasion occurs. And like it or not, but PR still matters in this world. Even now. Especially negative PR which no one here can deny does not exist and does not have an affect on world actions.
Open fighting in a rubbled city is an f'ing nightmare and negates many tactical advantages of an attacker. Mix in one of the more densely populated cities and the fighting will be nasty from the first seconds if HAMAS decides to fight to the end. I see no possible scenario where Israel emerges from that as a glorious victor. A shellshocked survivor at best maybe.
Ignore the "Glass them" crowd. We are dealing with reality and the reality is that Gaza will likely suck in Israel into a long drawn out battle it cannot hope to sustain for long with the forces it has drawn up. Most of which will be reservists. I have the utmost respect for reservists in general and especially the Israeli model, but in a house to house battle against the arch enemy personified is going to shatter a lot of them. Just look at our PTSD cases from Fallujah and Ramadi. And that is with trained professionals. You are going to be asking school teachers and cashiers into tunnels against a masked enemy who is willing to die in order to see their enemies dead. I've crawled down an Afghani terrorist tunnel before with an M9 and Surefire. I don't wish that on anyone. (Thanks mom and dad for making a 5'6" 150 lbs son)
And all of this is not taking in the better than even odds Israel finds itself in a two front war...
All just my opinion of course and open to discussion/revision. My only real hard stance is Israel should NOT have gone straight into Gaza in the hours/ few days following the 7th. That would have been f'ing stupid on their part. Act, but be smart about it and don't throw your people/nation into situations they are not ready for.