Adventure to the Titanic goes terribly wrong [Staff Warning in OP]

277,854 Views | 1587 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
TexasRebel
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There's a lot of whackadoodle ideas that never get too far off of a napkin. I wouldn't really say they had "a day".
Fightin_Aggie
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agracer said:

this is a good video about the "engineering" of the sub.

The most salient points are about Stockton Rush's comments about "pilot error" and "certification organizations". Stockton was an idiot.



Good analysis but the knock on SpaceX for moving fast and breaking things like the David Rush ignores that Elon only breaks things when people are not involved. Elon has said that was one of the major flaws with the space shuttle because you were testing with people on board
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NASAg03
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Ag83 said:



WOW! After watching this, that company should be sued for all their worth. Amazing video. Summary:

  • Only used vacuum bag, not autoclave
  • Did not perform any cycle life testing
  • Acceptance testing to 4000m (13k ft, or 1.04X operational depth)
  • 1% voids in structural allowable
  • No papers or analysis methods that can accurately analyze such a composite structure
  • Did not perform any inspection post fabrication or operation
  • Utilized acoustic testing to listen for localized laminate buckling
  • Ignored said acoustics when they did occur.
  • Fired employee for raising concerns that no NDE was performed on laminates and between the hull and end caps.

To quote the video creator:

"This wasn't innovation. There's nothing innovative about making a composite overwrap pressure vessel and putting people inside. This was profiteering. Innovation is advancing materials science and reliable use of composites under water."

"I would attribute this to malice, expect Stockton Rush was on this sub. As Hanlon's razor goes, never attribute to malice what which is adequately explained by stupidity."
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
Rocky Rider
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Fightin_Aggie said:

agracer said:

this is a good video about the "engineering" of the sub.

The most salient points are about Stockton Rush's comments about "pilot error" and "certification organizations". Stockton was an idiot.



Good analysis but the knock on SpaceX for moving fast and breaking things like the David Rush ignores that Elon only breaks things when people are not involved. Elon has said that was one of the major flaws with the space shuttle because you were testing with people on board

Elon fan here, but Challenger was STS-51 and Columbia was STS-107...so about 50 flights and 100 flights in to the program. Doesn't sound like the test phase to me.

Challenger was a bad call by the team day of launch given the cold weather and its affect on O rings.

I seem to remember that the shuttle main tank lost foam prior to the Columbia disaster. This should have been addressed between launches.

Elon is very early in the process of space launches compared to NASA. He may regret his words. Operations teams becoming complacent spell disaster.
bthotugigem05
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The very first launch of the Shuttle had crew members on it with no crew evac possibility once the SRBs fired up. I think that was Elon's point.
BQ_90
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bthotugigem05 said:

The very first launch of the Shuttle had crew members on it with no crew evac possibility once the SRBs fired up. I think that was Elon's point.
was that any different in Mercury Gemini and Apollo? I think they had abort procedures later on but where they ever tested?

They sure had a lot of rocket failures all during those programs, which we're seeing somewhat with Space X. It's all very risky business. but that derails from this thread
Ag83
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First 4 flights had ejection seats for crew.
JDUB08AG
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NASAg03 said:

The Fife said:

I watched through it a couple of times and had to dig a little deeper

https://www.engineering.com/story/the-titan-tragedy-a-deep-dive-into-carbon-fiber-used-for-the-first-time-in-a-submersible

Quote:

A 2017 article in Composite Weekly describes the carbon fiber construction of the Cyclops 2 (later renamed as the Titan) as "alternating placement of prepreg carbon fiber/epoxy unidirectional fabrics in the axial direction" with "wet winding of carbon fiber/epoxy in the hoop direction, for a total of 480 plies."

Building it this way, with no autoclave cure and I'm assuming no meaningful inspection for voids or porosity, FOD, wrinkles, ... is criminally dumb. Go for extra thickness but don't bother with ensuring there's a good bond because who needs that? Probably no attempt to scan the IML or OML for damage between dives either.

I'm surprised it didn't fatigue out before it finally did, but I guess in a way they did their fatigue testing with actual passengers inside and got a data point for what the life limit is.
100% agree. Even more critical when fibers are in compression.

Tanks on space flight vehicles typically have a metal liner that is plastically deformed during testing (autofrettage), preloading the interface and reducing strain extremes, increasing cycle life. The liner also allows for autoclave use to remove air bubbles and voids. Even so, failures STILL occur due to voids between layers.

In the of the Titan, with no autoclave and hand-laid layers, a single void in the exterior and can result in high-pressure water getting pumped further into voids, finding low-pressure pockets to travel into, and gradually cutting into the polymer matrix. 5600 psi water finds a way. Waterjet cutters run at 10X that pressure, but 5600psi still does damage.

This process does weaken the structure, especially with cycling. Combine that with local fiber buckling, stress concentrations, and shearing from water pressure, and it's easy to see how this could fail.





TexasRebel
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Elon is worse.

Trying to get programmers to drive cars they aren't in around people that haven't consented.
BonfireNerd04
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Quote:

Elon fan here, but Challenger was STS-51 and Columbia was STS-107...so about 50 flights and 100 flights in to the program. Doesn't sound like the test phase to me.
Nitpick: Challenger was the 25th flight, and Columbia was the 113th.

In 1984, NASA changed the flight numbering to indicate the fiscal year (4 = 1984, 5 = 1985, 6 = 1986), launch site (1 = Kennedy Space Center, 2 = Vandenberg), and sequence (by letter). Challengers ill-fated launch was STS-51-L, indicating it as the 12th mission to manifested for KSC for FY 1985 (but it got delayed into FY 1986).

After the Challenger disaster, NASA returned to using a simple sequence numbering, starting with STS-26. But often, there would be delays preparing an orbiter or payload for launch, causing missions to be launched out of order. STS-107 was one of these, being launched after Endeavour's STS-113.

In total, there were 135 Shuttle launches, giving an overall failure rate of 1.48%.
BonfireNerd04
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Ag83 said:

First 4 flights had ejection seats for crew.
For these first 4 "test" flights, there were only 2 crew members.

The ejection seats were removed for "operational" flights because it wasn't possible to provide them for an entire 7-member crew, and the commanders and pilots generally held the opinion that they wouldn't want the ability to eject if it meant having to leave others behind.
Ag83
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I am quite aware of all of that. I was responding to a comment made.
agracer
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BonfireNerd04 said:

Ag83 said:

First 4 flights had ejection seats for crew.
For these first 4 "test" flights, there were only 2 crew members.

The ejection seats were removed for "operational" flights because it wasn't possible to provide them for an entire 7-member crew, and the commanders and pilots generally held the opinion that they wouldn't want the ability to eject if it meant having to leave others behind.
I'll be they would have though.
JABQ04
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I seriously doubt that. No pilot is going to abandon their aircraft while the rest of their crew can't bail out.
aggieforester05
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JABQ04 said:

I seriously doubt that. No pilot is going to abandon their aircraft while the rest of their crew can't bail out.
I suspect most people's opinion would change on that very quickly when facing certain death and simple pull of a handle can extend the time they spend with their families. These folks are no doubt very brave and honorable, but the terror of those final seconds could be very powerful.
JABQ04
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I think the most logical comparison is bomber pilots who stayed in control of their ship long enough enough to give their crews times to bail out in WWII and other wars. At least one of our Aggie MOH recipients did this. While not the same as a space shuttle, these men knew what they were doing and what the likely outcome of them staying in the plane longer than their crew was. To be fair, none of them wanted to die, but they could have just as easily said something like we're going down and bail out, but willingly chose to stay in control of a burning and crashing plane to give others a chance to get out. They also knew that their own chance to escape safely was diminishing every second and the aircraft would no longer be stable for their own escape. I have a hard time believing a military pilot/NASA astronaut would yank the ejection handle and leave their crew and passengers to their fate. Those guys and girls aren't wired like that.
aggieforester05
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JABQ04 said:

I think the most logical comparison is bomber pilots who stayed in control of their ship long enough enough to give their crews times to bail out in WWII and other wars. At least one of our Aggie MOH recipients did this. While not the same as a space shuttle, these men knew what they were doing and what the likely outcome of them staying in the plane longer than their crew was. To be fair, none of them wanted to die, but they could have just as easily said something like we're going down and bail out, but willingly chose to stay in control of a burning and crashing plane to give others a chance to get out. They also knew that their own chance to escape safely was diminishing every second and the aircraft would no longer be stable for their own escape. I have a hard time believing a military pilot/NASA astronaut would yank the ejection handle and leave their crew and passengers to their fate. Those guys and girls aren't wired like that.
I'm sure some of them would choose to die at the last moment and likely all of them would elect not to have an ejection seat if that were an option beforehand. That being said, I suspect many would pull the ejection handle at the last second if it were there and everyone was sure to die regardless. Self preservation is a basic human instinct that can be hard to overcome for even the most noble among us.
AgsMyDude
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Ag83 said:

First 4 flights had ejection seats for crew.

Don't think Apollo 1 did.....
DannyDuberstein
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What part of the flight could they reasonably expect to eject and survive? The space shuttle would reach 17,000 mph.

Seems like it would only be very early on liftoff, then maybe after re-entry if there was not the ability to land it for some reason
Ag83
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Apollo never had ejection seats and my response wasn't in reference to Apollo.
TexasRebel
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The easy solution is ejection roulette.

Everyone gets a handle, but you don't know who is getting boosted when it's pulled.
ChemAg15
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I think a voting system would be more ethical. Let's the passengers decide.
AgsMyDude
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Correct, Apollo never had ejection seats
Squadron7
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AgsMyDude said:

Correct, Apollo never had ejection seats

Challenger did.






















Too soon?
Burdizzo
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AgsMyDude said:

Correct, Apollo never had ejection seats



Apollo had rockets on the command module that were supposed to fire in emergency cases during liftoff if the CM were to jettison and pull the CM away from the rest of the rocket. It always seemed to me that if the Saturn launch vehicle failed it would happen so fast that escape system was kind of useless. Fortunately, they never actually needed it. The only astronauts to die because of Apollo were the three that died in the Apollo test on the ground.
yawny06
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agracer said:

this is a good video about the "engineering" of the sub.

The most salient points are about Stockton Rush's comments about "pilot error" and "certification organizations". Stockton was an idiot.





This was an excellent video.

You almost have to admire, with morbid curiosity, the continuous attempts to justify their decision not to seek certification while also simultaneously justifying the need for certification.

"Most accidents happen because of operator error and not mechanical failure."

Yea, that is because the certification process works at preventing mechanical failures.

Stockon Rush landed in the dubious position of both mechanical failure and operator dumbassery. Sad he had to take four others with him.
TexasRebel
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They did identify the need for rapid egress.

Which Rush ignored.
yawny06
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eric76 said:

There are reports that if you put a light to one side of the carbon fiber, you could see light on the other side from gaps and imperfections and the gradual damage to the carbon fiber.


I posted the article earlier in the thread, but the person who said this was the engineer who got fired for raising concerns.

Quote:

To assess the carbon-fibre hull, Lochridge examined a small cross-section of material. He found that it had "very visible signs of delamination and porosity"it seemed possible that, after repeated dives, it would come apart. He shone a light at the sample from behind, and photographed beams streaming through splits in the midsection in a disturbing, irregular pattern. The only safe way to dive, Lochridge concluded, was to first carry out a full scan of the hull.


https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/the-titan-submersible-was-an-accident-waiting-to-happen?mc_cid=3ccf735a10&mc_eid=9fa07cff91

eric76
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yawny06 said:

eric76 said:

There are reports that if you put a light to one side of the carbon fiber, you could see light on the other side from gaps and imperfections and the gradual damage to the carbon fiber.


I posted the article earlier in the thread, but the person who said this was the engineer who got fired for raising concerns.

Quote:

To assess the carbon-fibre hull, Lochridge examined a small cross-section of material. He found that it had "very visible signs of delamination and porosity"it seemed possible that, after repeated dives, it would come apart. He shone a light at the sample from behind, and photographed beams streaming through splits in the midsection in a disturbing, irregular pattern. The only safe way to dive, Lochridge concluded, was to first carry out a full scan of the hull.


https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/the-titan-submersible-was-an-accident-waiting-to-happen?mc_cid=3ccf735a10&mc_eid=9fa07cff91
Thanks. I saw a mention of a New Yorker article, but hadn't taken the time to search for it.
AgsMyDude
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Burdizzo said:

AgsMyDude said:

Correct, Apollo never had ejection seats



Apollo had rockets on the command module that were supposed to fire in emergency cases during liftoff if the CM were to jettison and pull the CM away from the rest of the rocket. It always seemed to me that if the Saturn launch vehicle failed it would happen so fast that escape system was kind of useless. Fortunately, they never actually needed it. The only astronauts to die because of Apollo were the three that died in the Apollo test on the ground.


That is also correct
agracer
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JABQ04 said:

I think the most logical comparison is bomber pilots who stayed in control of their ship long enough enough to give their crews times to bail out in WWII and other wars. At least one of our Aggie MOH recipients did this. While not the same as a space shuttle, these men knew what they were doing and what the likely outcome of them staying in the plane longer than their crew was. To be fair, none of them wanted to die, but they could have just as easily said something like we're going down and bail out, but willingly chose to stay in control of a burning and crashing plane to give others a chance to get out. They also knew that their own chance to escape safely was diminishing every second and the aircraft would no longer be stable for their own escape. I have a hard time believing a military pilot/NASA astronaut would yank the ejection handle and leave their crew and passengers to their fate. Those guys and girls aren't wired like that.
Not really comparable since crew and passengers in the shuttle had no means to get out regardless of what the pilot does.
agracer
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edit: see it's been answered already.
torrid
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agracer said:

AgsMyDude said:

Ag83 said:

First 4 flights had ejection seats for crew.

Don't think Apollo 1 did.....
he's talking about the shuttle.

And Apollo did have a crew escape system that would rocket the capsule away from the rest of the rockets stages, parachute land and allow the crew to, hopefully, live.

Apollo 1 is not even comparable though. They were testing, not launching.
The lack of any sort of crew escape system was a major shortcoming of the shuttle. The Russians were incredulous that it lacked one. It would not have helped with Columbia, though. Also questionable if it would have worked with Challenger.
YokelRidesAgain
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NASAg03 said:


"This wasn't innovation. There's nothing innovative about making a composite overwrap pressure vessel and putting people inside. This was profiteering. Innovation is advancing materials science and reliable use of composites under water."

"I would attribute this to malice, expect Stockton Rush was on this sub. As Hanlon's razor goes, never attribute to malice what which is adequately explained by stupidity."
Simple Dunning-Kruger effect. Rush thought he was "innovating", when in reality he was just ignoring the reasons why competent designers don't make the choices that he did.
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Throwout
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Crazy story here by 60 Minutes. Specifically the fact that the sub would make loud gunshot-like noises every few minutes. Sounding more and more like this guy had a death wish and wanted it to happen in a way that he was immortalized.

60 Minutes Sub Story
 
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