Adventure to the Titanic goes terribly wrong [Staff Warning in OP]

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bonfarr
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In reply to Lake08 • 12:47p, 6/21/23
AG
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
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MROD92
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12:51p, 6/21/23
The manner in which this entire vessel was constructed reminds me of the 70's tv show Salvage I
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Keeper of The Spirits
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12:52p, 6/21/23
AG
Imagine being stuck in there with your 19 year old kid. You have to consider trying to off yourself to buy your kid a few more minutes or maybe not. I imagine if they are still down there, its quite horrific
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to bonfarr • 12:52p, 6/21/23
AG
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.


I would think being on top and not being seen/found would be the most screwed since no one would be able to find them and they would suffocate.

If they are sitting on the bottom of the ocean floor (hopefully near the titanic) or stuck in the wreckage, at least you have a chance to get an ROV down there to pull them or separate the ballast and let it float to the surface.

Of course, it could be nowhere near the wreckage site and on the ocean floor too, which is just as bad as being floating on the surface.
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MarathonAg12
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In reply to MROD92 • 12:52p, 6/21/23
MROD92 said:
The manner in which this entire vessel was constructed reminds me of the 70's tv show Salvage I


I assume more regulation will now come out after this.

Well idk, billionaires shoot themselves up into space as well
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to fka ftc • 12:53p, 6/21/23
fka ftc said:
So these really rich guys took the option of flying in John Denver's homemade aircraft vs the corporate jet.
Exactly what I thought of.
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jokershady
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In reply to bonfarr • 12:53p, 6/21/23
AG
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
even if it's painted white? someone had commented way earlier in the thread that life rafts and other really small vessels are painted orange to stick out over the white caps of the water.....

how much do you think that'll play a role in finding this thing if it is on the surface bobbing around?
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BrazosBendHorn
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12:54p, 6/21/23
Heard on the radio yesterday that there were 6 foot seas in the area, meaning that the white submersible would be almost impossible to see from the air.
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agracer
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In reply to Lake08 • 12:55p, 6/21/23
AG
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

At bottom of ocean (screwed)
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed)
Floating on top (best scenario)**
** Actually still screwed b/c they can't get out and will likely run out of air before they are found...if they are even found.
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Hoyt Ag
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In reply to jokershady • 12:56p, 6/21/23
AG
jokershady said:
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
even if it's painted white? someone had commented way earlier in the thread that life rafts and other really small vessels are painted orange to stick out over the white caps of the water.....

how much do you think that'll play a role in finding this thing if it is on the surface bobbing around?
This is where I am at too. Also, Im sure the PM on this said "F it, lets save a few bucks and not put a beacon on it in the event we lose it and it floats."
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to ThunderCougarFalconBird • 12:56p, 6/21/23
ThunderCougarFalconBird said:
Seems like there's be a fail safe feature in the design to auto-drop ballast. Probably means either stuck or hull failure.
These people seem incredibly stupid. Like Titanic-level arrogance.

I am sure their ballast system is/was powered versus at least having mechanical valves for backup. This whole thing is "Here! Hold my beer!" dumb.
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MarathonAg12
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12:56p, 6/21/23
Compare James Cameron's sub that took him into Mariana's Trench (green) vs the pile of scrap 5 guys crammed themselves into. Not enough encasement and tons of stuff dangling and lot of wires and tubes unprotected.

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agracer
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In reply to fka ftc • 12:57p, 6/21/23
AG
fka ftc said:
So these really rich guys took the option of flying in John Denver's homemade aircraft vs the corporate jet.

Cannot explain that, even with ego at play. Seems exceptionally foolish.

Also, from the updated clip of CBS dude. See link to part in video where he describes that there are 18 bolts to fasten the end cap on, but on his trip they stopped at 17 cause the other one was "hard to reach" and they told him it would be fine.

Again, exceptional carelessness and stupidity it would seem.

if the last bolt is hard to reach, HTF are they properly torquing the other 17 bolts down correctly? Or even that 18th one.
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VegasAg86
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In reply to jokershady • 12:57p, 6/21/23
AG
jokershady said:
even if it's painted white? someone had commented way earlier in the thread that life rafts and other really small vessels are painted orange to stick out over the white caps of the water.....

how much do you think that'll play a role in finding this thing if it is on the surface bobbing around?
I heard a report (Tue or Wed) that the planes and equipment they are using would find it on the surface rather easily. They aren't relying of visual spotting.
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texsn95
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In reply to Hoyt Ag • 12:58p, 6/21/23
AG
Hoyt Ag said:
jokershady said:
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
even if it's painted white? someone had commented way earlier in the thread that life rafts and other really small vessels are painted orange to stick out over the white caps of the water.....

how much do you think that'll play a role in finding this thing if it is on the surface bobbing around?
This is where I am at too. Also, Im sure the PM on this said "F it, lets save a few bucks and not put a beacon on it in the event we lose it and it floats."
Do we know for sure that there's no EPIRB on it? If not, that's unconscionable.
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to MROD92 • 1:00p, 6/21/23
[You were warned. -Staff]
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Hoyt Ag
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In reply to texsn95 • 1:00p, 6/21/23
AG
I have no idea. It would not shock me at all though.
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txags92
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In reply to texsn95 • 1:00p, 6/21/23
AG
texsn95 said:
Hoyt Ag said:
jokershady said:
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
even if it's painted white? someone had commented way earlier in the thread that life rafts and other really small vessels are painted orange to stick out over the white caps of the water.....

how much do you think that'll play a role in finding this thing if it is on the surface bobbing around?
This is where I am at too. Also, Im sure the PM on this said "F it, lets save a few bucks and not put a beacon on it in the event we lose it and it floats."
Do we know for sure that there's no EPIRB on it? If not, that's unconscionable.
Know of any EPIRBs rated to 12,000 feet? If not, no way to take it down with you without destroying it.
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bonfarr
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In reply to jokershady • 1:01p, 6/21/23
AG
jokershady said:
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
even if it's painted white? someone had commented way earlier in the thread that life rafts and other really small vessels are painted orange to stick out over the white caps of the water.....

how much do you think that'll play a role in finding this thing if it is on the surface bobbing around?


The white paint would have made it harder for sure but I imagine they can also use radar sweeps to locate it and there is titanium on the hull. I would be interested to hear from a Navy or CG man on that.
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Anti-taxxer
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1:01p, 6/21/23
AG
I have a very basic understanding of everything that's been happening, so bear with me if this is a stupid question.

My initial thought was the "sub" imploded from pressure due to the low quality materials it was constructed with.

Then, I watched the cbs video of the sub actually making it to the wreckage before, which means it was obviously able to withstand the pressure from 2.5 miles under the sea.

Is it possible (or rather, likely) that continued trips under the ocean caused a weakening of the material (I guess like the cracks that have been mentioned), which would have led to an implosion?

Is there really a chance they are just floating around down there, waiting? That just seems so improbable.
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to MarathonAg12 • 1:02p, 6/21/23
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Joes
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In reply to bonfarr • 1:03p, 6/21/23
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
We're all just speculating of course but I think it's far more likely this:

90% it imploded on the way down and they've been dead since early Sunday morning.
10% it's one of your three scenarios.

And as some Navy guys on TV pointed out, in the event that it is somehow at the surface it's still not going to be floating on top like a boat, the top of it would be more or less flush with the water, so it's still pretty invisible. But I think they've been dead for days at this point, and for their sake I hope they are, even if they were miraculously located this very second there's no way to get them out in time. Heck, if they're stuck on the bottom there might not have been enough time to rescue them even if they found them on Sunday.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to MarathonAg12 • 1:03p, 6/21/23
AG
MarathonAg12 said:
MROD92 said:
The manner in which this entire vessel was constructed reminds me of the 70's tv show Salvage I


I assume more regulation will now come out after this.

Well idk, billionaires shoot themselves up into space as well

These guys bypassed the existing regulations, didn't they? Isn't that why it's an unclassified vessel?
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 1:04p, 6/21/23
Quote:
Is it possible (or rather, likely) that continued trips under the ocean caused a weakening of the material (I guess like the cracks that have been mentioned), which would have led to an implosion?

Is there really a chance they are just floating around down there, waiting? That just seems so improbable.
It is absolutely possible. A lot of people have suggested that.

But there are tons of possibilities. I also agree that the possibility of them just chilling is among the most remote.
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GigEmJake17
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1:06p, 6/21/23
AG
Some people think that the Navy could just whisk in there and easily save them. Don't think people realize that Ohio and Viriginia class subs can only go roughly 1000ft or so. They could maybe find it with a ping but that is about it.
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Guitarsoup
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In reply to DannyDuberstein • 1:07p, 6/21/23
AG
DannyDuberstein said:
The issue is the other end; how would it be attached/grabbed?


It has those helicopter skids. Clip on some type of inflatable bag?

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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to GigEmJake17 • 1:07p, 6/21/23
AG
Dan Crenshaw certainly seems to think so.
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Showertime at the Bidens
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1:08p, 6/21/23

I don't know about you but I want my sub operator hired soley on competence.


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BassCowboy33
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In reply to jokershady • 1:09p, 6/21/23
jokershady said:
bonfarr said:
Lake08 said:
So 3 scenarios, imo

Likelihood IMO:
At bottom of ocean (screwed) 40%
Tangled in the wreckage (screwed) 50%
Floating on top (best scenario)10%



Added my estimates on probability.


The likelihood of the vessel floating in the top of the water since Sunday or early Monday without being found seems remote to me. The Coast Guard and Navies are very good at spotting vessels adrift and they have been searching for days. Even with a large surface area to search I think they would have seen it by now.
even if it's painted white? someone had commented way earlier in the thread that life rafts and other really small vessels are painted orange to stick out over the white caps of the water.....

how much do you think that'll play a role in finding this thing if it is on the surface bobbing around?
Former deep-sea mariner here. It can be exceedingly difficult to see boats in the water with waves greater than a few feet. As someone mentioned, that's why they're painted orange.

It's often easier to find vessels at night because a light will stick out like a sore thumb. In daylight, white is all over the horizon and easy to miss.
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MarathonAg12
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1:11p, 6/21/23
This is just nuts

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JB!98
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1:12p, 6/21/23
AG
My knowledge of modern submarines does not extend past Tom Clancy. With the way that they cut corners on this thing you would think that they would have at least planned for some emergency communications. I seem to recall that subs have the ability to communicate ULF and also stream an antenna for HF coms. This stuff has been around for a long time and you would think that it is relatively cheap. Just amazing the lack of thought that went into a venture that is akin to sending people into orbit.
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bonfarr
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1:14p, 6/21/23
AG
Doesn't our Navy have an underwater cable all over the Atlantic that was laid during the Cold War to listen for Soviet Nuke subs? I think I read that in a Tom Clancy novel or something.

I wonder if it can pick up acoustics in the search area.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to BassCowboy33 • 1:16p, 6/21/23
AG
Quote:
Former deep-sea mariner here. It can be exceedingly difficult to see boats in the water with waves greater than a few feet. As someone mentioned, that's why they're painted orange.

It's often easier to find vessels at night because a light will stick out like a sore thumb. In daylight, white is all over the horizon and easy to miss.
Last I saw, waves were between 6-9 feet. That would have been Monday with the waves not expected to calm before Wednesday/Thursday.
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Burdizzo
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In reply to MROD92 • 1:16p, 6/21/23
AG
MROD92 said:
The manner in which this entire vessel was constructed reminds me of the 70's tv show Salvage I



I remember that show. Those people would hop in that homemade rocket and travel around as if they were riding their bikes to the grocery store for milk and bread.
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MarathonAg12
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1:18p, 6/21/23
Imagine being claustrophobic and being in this thing.


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