Adventure to the Titanic goes terribly wrong [Staff Warning in OP]

277,557 Views | 1587 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
FTAG 2000
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I just have a hard time believing the surface ship team doesn't have a really good idea of what happened.

Whether to cover up their incompetence, or not wanting to admit they contributed to the death of their boss, friend, and company, is something else.

But little chance they don't know what happened to that thing.
Sea Speed
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FTAG 2000 said:

I just have a hard time believing the surface ship team doesn't have a really good idea of what happened.

Whether to cover up their incompetence, or not wanting to admit they contributed to the death of their boss, friend, and company, is something else.

But little chance they don't know what happened to that thing.


Just because we don't know doesn't mean they haven't been telling the authorities etc and it just hasn't trickled out. This is literally happening now in the middle of the north Atlantic. It isn't like reporters can just go to the scene and the people on board the mothership are probably a little busy trying to facilitate a rescue of any kind.
techno-ag
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God bless. I pray for the best outcome for all involved.

Side note: never ever name a ship with "Titan" in the name. Titan, Titanic, etc.
Trump will fix it.
BQ78
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The guy saying they hung up on the wreck is blowing smoke. The problem occurred well above the wreck.
one MEEN Ag
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BQ78 said:

Steel flexes under extreme pressure, carbon fiber breeches.
Mechanical Engineer here with too much time playing with both steel and carbon fiber. BQ, you probably know all of this but I'll just quote you because you've summed it up quite well.

There is a material property called toughness. It measures how much energy a material can sustain in damage before it ruptures when loaded. So lets say you have a ceramic mug. You hit it with a hammer. It shatters. Ceramics have very low fracture toughness. You hit steel with a hammer, it just puts a localized dent in it and you can mostly keep on trucking with a minor stress concentration. Ceramics can be designed to resist a large amount of force, but they are very unforgiving of any damage to them. On a more realistic scale, lets say you have a very small crack in a ceramic and you pull the material apart. Something brittle like a ceramic mug will just immediately rupture. Steel wont. The infinitesimally small tip of the crack will yield and blunt a bit, allowing the material to still carry some load - just don't load it up any more and get it repaired.

Another material property is called the glass-transition temperature. And its ironic that this might come into play because it was discovered to be the main cause of failure on liberty ships as the crossed cold water. Most materials, have a temperature threshold that once you get them so cold, they loose a LOT of their material properties. Specifically, its toughness that can be effected. The liberty ships of WWII suffered from poor metallurgy and would break in half in rough, frigid seas because the material was just too brittle in very cold water. If you ever hear someone say Charpy V notch testing. That is a material toughness test that revealed difference in toughness at different temperatures. All the steels we buy have Charpy testing done to them, and Lord help everyone from project managers to supply chain if you don't pass Charpys on a material delivery.

Now onto carbon fiber composite hulls. Oh man. So carbon fiber composites are an extremely strong fiber material in a curing resin matrix. Think about pouring a concrete foundation. The rebar is the fibers, the concrete itself is matrix. Together, the foundation has a mix of material properties of both the steel and the concrete. It is very directional though. The direction of the steel rebar is the direction that it helps the concrete resist loads. Same with a carbon fiber sheet. Its very directional. When you do a carbon fiber layup you alternate the direction of the fiber layup to hopefully align with your stresses. Carbon fiber composites also don't have much toughness. You hit a carbon fiber composite with a hammer, its going to create a dent, but it'll shatter the matrix and fiber bonds and immediately destroy material strength. This is called damage mechanics. When you stress steel and load it up until it ruptures (like pulling it apart) it eventually comes apart in two pieces. For composites, when you pull it apart, what you get is a cascade of microcracks that sound like a mix of popcorn popping and someone playing with guitar strings. Each one of those little microcracks is irreversible damage to the composite.

Now on to fatigue. In materials, you can load them up once to a very high limit and it'll resist loading. But lets say you stay under the rupture load. Like 60% of failure load. But you cycle up to it and back down. Some materials are very forgiving of this. Steel can be one of them. Aluminum by the way, is not. It never forgets and never forgives the things you've done it to. No matter how many times you bring it flowers or apologize. Thats why airplanes are always inspected for cracks.

Carbon fiber composites do not like compression. They work really well in tension. So huge amounts of excessive force on the outside of a hull applying pressure don't do nice things to the composite. And with every cycle, there is a chance they had a bad manufacturing defect somewhere in their carbon fiber layup. Its not 'probable' its a guarantee to be there because of the complexity of laying up composites. There is some spot deep within the resin walls where the carbon fiber didn't get fully wet. With every load up of pressure, microcracks start accumulating. Heck even the difference in thermal expansion rates between the carbon fiber and the resin can pull the matrix away from the fiber and cause damage.

Eventually you damage the composite lattice so much it just ruptures. Between the thermal expansion, manufacturing methods, material selection, and just in general lack of looking up and seeing how everyone else is building subs/submersibles this was not going to end well.
aggiez03
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BQ78 said:

The guy saying they hung up on the wreck is blowing smoke. The problem occurred well above the wreck.
Are you hearing anything new this morning?

Proposition Joe
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Equally interesting and nightmarish-flashbacks-to-Metallic-Materials-course.
one MEEN Ag
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As a sidenote, a software guy with a bachelors degree from Random U should have never been leading design like this. There should have been a team of deeply experienced engineers with deep sea vessel experience leading this project. There should have been a picture of the DSV ALVIN with the words, 'When in doubt, build this" underneath it.

chase128
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Titanium hull? Pfffft let's use carbon fiber instead!
aggiehawg
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Have a question about communications under water. If the surface ship has to text navigational instructions to the Titan to guide it down to the wreck, how does that texting work? I have read they were using Starlink?
fka ftc
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Fantastic write-up.

Let me know if my understanding is faulty, but overall you are saying carbon fiber is not ideal for resisting compression such as a sub diving to ocean depths.

For tension, they are more well suited, which if my brain is working correctly would be the force on an aircraft fuselage when it goes up in the air (higher pressure inside pushing out on the airplane skin).

What would still concern me is the part about the fatigue. A quick side rail from the topic, but what are your general thoughts about carbon fiber becoming ever more pervasive in aviation?
aggiez03
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one MEEN Ag said:

As a sidenote, a software guy with a bachelors degree from Random U should have never been leading design like this. There should have been a team of deeply experienced engineers with deep sea vessel experience leading this project. There should have been a picture of the DSV ALVIN with the words, 'When in doubt, build this" underneath it.


Exactly, after watching that CBS video, I would not have gone 100 feet deep in that sub based on their cavalier attitude and the fact a random reporter actually noticed how gerry-rigged the whole system was.

I did some work out at Blue Origin about 8 years ago. The level of detail that went into everything they did was unbelievable. We were working on some cryogenics for a test firing boosters and still the levels of detail were way beyond anything I had ever encountered with any other company I worked with.

These guys seem like they are way in over their heads.
aggiez03
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aggiehawg said:

Have a question about communications under water. If the surface ship has to text navigational instructions to the Titan to guide it down to the wreck, how does that texting work? I have read they were using Starlink?
No idea on how texting down goes under water. No one with knowledge has really commented on how that works.

Pretty sure Starlink is on the mothership (shooting to space) and is used to connect to the internet from sea.

It would not work from underwater and definitely not at depth.
BQ78
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Not really but it is a potential recovery mission not a rescue despite how the press is portraying it. Our owner is friends with the missing Oceangate guy and understandably upset, so he isn't as chatty now.

I do know that he and several other submersible company owners jointly sent a letter to Oceangate telling them why their design was bad for what they were planning, even while our engineers were discussing the possibility of working with them.
PA24
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Next time you board an airplane, look for rivets in the hull, as Carbon fiber composites are replacing aluminum.


https://simpleflying.com/787-a350-composite/
Rapier108
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PA24 said:

Next time you board an airplane, look for rivets in the hull, as Carbon fiber composites are replacing aluminum.
Completely different application. Carbon fiber has been used in aviation for decades and its strengths and weaknesses in aviation applications is well understood.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
D-Fens
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Just heard ABC news claim this rescue would be "like getting a toy out of an arcade machine with a claw."

Just another example of how stupid the MSM is.
Anonymous Source
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D-Fens said:

Just heard ABC news claim this rescue would be "like getting a toy out of an arcade machine with a claw."

Just another example of how stupid the MSM is.
Yeah, the guy who said that was a retired Navy sub captain, so it's likely he knows what he's talking about.

Quote:

Retired Capt. David Marquet told ABC News on Monday that this type of rescue operation is complicated because there aren't nearby U.S. or Canadian underwater vessels that can go as deep as the Titanic wreckage, which sits 13,400 feet below the ocean's surface. Also, the ocean is pitch black at that depth.

"The odds are against them," Marquet said. "There's a ship in Boston that has this ability to either lower cable and connect to it or have a claw. It's still a thousand miles away."
[url=https://abcnews.go.com/US/submersible-reported-missing-off-newfoundland/story?id=100193632][/url]
Even if a vessel was able to locate the submersible and lower a cable, it's extremely difficult to safely navigate the waters and attach it, Marquet said.
[url=https://abcnews.go.com/US/submersible-reported-missing-off-newfoundland/story?id=100193632][/url]
"You've got to get it exactly right. It's sort of like ... getting one of those toys out of those arcade machines. In general, you miss," he said.

Rescuers do have one advantage, Marquet said, as weather conditions off the coast of Newfoundland are not rough and will not disturb any boat or vessel there.

Gig 'Em
one MEEN Ag
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fka ftc said:

Fantastic write-up.

Let me know if my understanding is faulty, but overall you are saying carbon fiber is not ideal for resisting compression such as a sub diving to ocean depths.

For tension, they are more well suited, which if my brain is working correctly would be the force on an aircraft fuselage when it goes up in the air (higher pressure inside pushing out on the airplane skin).

What would still concern me is the part about the fatigue. A quick side rail from the topic, but what are your general thoughts about carbon fiber becoming ever more pervasive in aviation?
Yes, its not ideal. So imagine carbon fibers in a composite as tiny ropes. You can't push on a rope [no further comment]. But when you pull on a rope, it can take a lot of load. The carbon fibers themselves are some of the strongest 'ropes' ever made. But you can't build with just ropes. So you place the fibers in a thick viscous resin that will coat the ropes. The cured resin itself isn't that strong, especially compared to the ropes. The resin is there to just transfer the load into the fibers, the fibers resist the pulling loads. So if instead of you pulling these ropes (fibers), you start pushing on the ropes you generally only have the strength of resin matrix. Which is way way weaker than the fibers.

So when you compress a fiber composite you're pushing on the ropes and you lose a lot of the strength gains compared to tensile.

If you can design a composite part in such a way that it doesn't continue to become damaged when loading (usually solved by correct orientation of material plys and thickness), it has incredible fatigue strength. Because fatigue strength is mostly correlated to material strength - not material toughness.

Look at this video of carbon fiber driveshafts. They smoke steel in material tests. They did a great job designing that composite driveshaft to resist the loads driveshafts see when used. You could slap together a bad design that failed below steel as well.



My thoughts on carbon fiber in aviation are that they are great. Because those teams that design with carbon fiber know their stuff. You overdesign in thickness and loading directions to make sure you don't collect damage in your stress concentrations. Carbon fiber is an excellent material when you are concerned about weight and strength. It is super lightweight and can be extremely strong. If you can find use cases where you can protect it from damage, carbon fiber is a great choice. Its also very expensive. Most cases you'll see are carbon fiber used sparingly in the highest stress areas and then e-glass fibers elsewhere because they are cheaper.
jrdaustin
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BQ78 said:

The guy saying they hung up on the wreck is blowing smoke. The problem occurred well above the wreck.
Just heard on the radio a conversation with a Senator who was a sub guy. Didn't catch his name. He did say that if there was some sort of failure that didn't make them either surface or go to sea bed, that currents would likely take them virtually anywhere.

He didn't say it, but I got the feeling he felt that they may never be found.
one MEEN Ag
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I mean, we're focusing on the carbon fiber, but there are way more interactions at play and it only takes one failure path. This looks to be a fiber hull epoxied to an aluminum base that is exposed on the viewport. I think its aluminum based upon the welds and material color. and then a metal ring around the glass viewport with a bolt pattern of what looks like maybe 3/16" diameter bolts. I assume its covering an elastomer or thin metal seal underneath. Bolts you can overtorque with a wrench. You just overtorque this bolt pattern down wrong, think your too smart and don't use a star method when tightening them, and all of a sudden you've got 6000 psi fighting its way in. Again, look at the ALVIN, it doesn't look like this for a reason.

aggiehawg
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Quote:

He did say that if there was some sort of failure that didn't make them either surface or go to sea bed, that currents would likely take them virtually anywhere.
Has to be something on board that would have some buoyancy, no? Read where bodies and debris from the Titanic continued to wash onshore after it sank for weeks. So maybe the same thing might happen again? Some debris will come ashore?
chase128
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I was reading that the port on the Alvin was designed such that external pressure would help seal the port.
one MEEN Ag
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one MEEN Ag said:

I mean, we're focusing on the carbon fiber, but there are way more interactions at play and it only takes one failure path. This looks to be a fiber hull epoxied to an aluminum base that is exposed on the viewport. I think its aluminum based upon the welds. and then a metal ring around the glass viewport with a bolt pattern of what looks like maybe 3/16" diameter bolts. I assume its covering an elastomer or thin metal seal underneath. Bolts you can overtorque with a wrench. You just overtorque this bolt pattern down wrong, think your too smart and don't use a star method when tightening them, and all of a sudden you've got 6000 psi fighting its way in. Again, look at the ALVIN, it doesn't look like this for a reason.



This is even only relating to material failures. Which could still be performing.

There's a whole subset of engineering that relates to building complex systems. Its called..System engineering. Its funny because systems engineers get derided as 'not real engineers' if you get a degree in it. But they are a vital backstop to large complex systems not failing. Systems engineering is also really just a new label and a couple of mental processes that project level mechanical/electrical/software engineers should be thinking about anyway but can get stuck in the weeds instead.
fka ftc
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one MEEN Ag said:

I mean, we're focusing on the carbon fiber, but there are way more interactions at play and it only takes one failure path. This looks to be a fiber hull epoxied to an aluminum base that is exposed on the viewport. I think its aluminum based upon the welds. and then a metal ring around the glass viewport with a bolt pattern of what looks like maybe 3/16" diameter bolts. I assume its covering an elastomer or thin metal seal underneath. Bolts you can overtorque with a wrench. You just overtorque this bolt pattern down wrong, think your too smart and don't use a star method when tightening them, and all of a sudden you've got 6000 psi fighting its way in. Again, look at the ALVIN, it doesn't look like this for a reason.


Found this of ALVIN's view ports. What is the distinction you are drawing on the view ports (obviously the look wildly different)?

Also, ALVIN is a sphere which from my accounting degree I know holds up better than a cylinder under compression from all sides.

one MEEN Ag
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chase128 said:

I was reading that the port on the Alvin was designed such that external pressure would help seal the port.
And generally it is. Its 'self sealing' IF you can have the engineering, tolerancing, quality control to have a even application of pressure on the sealing ring. That might be asking too much for Oceangate.
BQ78
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a sub descending eliminates its buoyancy. But yes they have ways to make it buoyant but that is not where they were in their planned mission profile, they wanted it to sink.
one MEEN Ag
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fka ftc said:

one MEEN Ag said:

I mean, we're focusing on the carbon fiber, but there are way more interactions at play and it only takes one failure path. This looks to be a fiber hull epoxied to an aluminum base that is exposed on the viewport. I think its aluminum based upon the welds. and then a metal ring around the glass viewport with a bolt pattern of what looks like maybe 3/16" diameter bolts. I assume its covering an elastomer or thin metal seal underneath. Bolts you can overtorque with a wrench. You just overtorque this bolt pattern down wrong, think your too smart and don't use a star method when tightening them, and all of a sudden you've got 6000 psi fighting its way in. Again, look at the ALVIN, it doesn't look like this for a reason.


Found this of ALVIN's view ports. What is the distinction you are drawing on the view ports (obviously the look wildly different)?

Also, ALVIN is a sphere which from my accounting degree I know holds up better than a cylinder under compression from all sides.



I'm just pointing out that there are more ways for this thing to fail than just composite. Like we're all focused on composite rupture mechanics when it just as easily could be a something related to a weld quality, or how thin the sealing ring is and how flexible its going to be at 6000 psi, or the bolt design/torque down pattern. And this is just one of how many penetrations on it? Just spitballing there is a lot that can go wrong.

aggiehawg
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BQ78 said:

a sub descending eliminates its buoyancy. But yes they have ways to make it buoyant but that is not where they were in their planned mission profile, they wanted it to sink.
Okay, got it. Thanks.
aginlakeway
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jrdaustin said:

BQ78 said:

The guy saying they hung up on the wreck is blowing smoke. The problem occurred well above the wreck.
Just heard on the radio a conversation with a Senator who was a sub guy. Didn't catch his name. He did say that if there was some sort of failure that didn't make them either surface or go to sea bed, that currents would likely take them virtually anywhere.

He didn't say it, but I got the feeling he felt that they may never be found.


Kind of like Malaysia 370.
FTAG 2000
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BQ78 said:

The guy saying they hung up on the wreck is blowing smoke. The problem occurred well above the wreck.
One of his employees is the pilot of the sub.

Guessing he's getting out ahead of any potential lawsuits.

If the current pushed the sub into the Titanic then not his guy (or his company's) fault.
Anonymous Source
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Gig 'Em
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Will the cost of a deep sea rescue / recovery mission exceed the cost of the sub?
Desert Power
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Don't know if they are concerned with cost here
evestor1
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probably did before noon on the first day of distress.
 
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