BigRobSA said:

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CREAg87 said:

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I was a caucus volunteer for Ron Paul in 2012, that was my experience as well.

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Caucused for Paul that year.

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Another successful TexAgs meat up.

Old May Banker said:

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BigRobSA said:

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CREAg87 said:

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I was a caucus volunteer for Ron Paul in 2012, that was my experience as well.

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Caucused for Paul that year.

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Another successful TexAgs meat up.

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Obligatory "get a room, boys..."

FireAg said:

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9-10 points..got it...

But 33+?

I believe polls can be "wrong" and Iowa 2016 missed by 9 points...but they aren't 30+ points wrong...

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We will find out in a few days. I've never seen such a complete disconnect with ground game and organization and momentum and poll numbers but I've also never had less faith in polls. I used to live by them for decades, I don't trust them at all anymore.

You are the one that has pushed polls for months and months as the most important thing to look at so I guess the real question is how do you feel? Do you think Trump is going to win by 33 (or 43 according to Morning Consult?) Do you think Haley is going to finish 2nd as well? I assume so since you have been so confident up until now.

If so I'm fine, I know I backed the better man and candidate all along. I felt Cruz was the right guy in 2016 as well but supported Trump. Polls have no impact on me in Primaries.

If DeSantis does win or comes close though how will you feel?

I feel it ends

Trump
DeSantis
Haley

(even though Haley currently has a very slight lead in the average)...

I think Haley picks up steam in 2 of the next 3, and neither will catch Trump in the end...

If DeSantis wins Iowa, I believe he's at least viable (if but only hanging on by a thread) come Super Tuesday...

If he is "close" (meaning within 10 points of Trump in Iowa voting), I think it's anyone's guess what happens to his campaign...

If he gets stomped in Iowa, I think the results of two of the next three primaries probably put his campaign in hospice care...at best...

I think at the end of the day, DeSantis needs an Iowa win to simply remain viable...and even winning Iowa, I still don't beleive that is a good predictor of his overall primary chances to win the nomination...

FireAg said:

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I feel it ends

Trump
DeSantis
Haley

(even though Haley currently has a very slight lead in the average)...

I think Haley picks up steam in 2 of the next 3, and neither will catch Trump in the end...

If DeSantis wins Iowa, I believe he's at least viable (if but only hanging on by a thread) come Super Tuesday...

If he is "close" (meaning within 10 points of Trump in Iowa voting), I think it's anyone's guess what happens to his campaign...

If he gets stomped in Iowa, I think the results of two of the next three primaries probably put his campaign in hospice care...at best...

I think at the end of the day, DeSantis needs an Iowa win to simply remain viable...and even winning Iowa, I still don't beleive that is a good predictor of his overall primary chances to win the nomination...

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I think that's a safe analysis.

My question though was since you have been so adamant about polling how will you feel if DeSantis wins or comes within 10 in regards to how you think about polling going forward?

This should make at least one poster on this forum happy:

I am on record, in this thread, that I will gladly admit polling is complete garbage…

33+ behind and he wins?

Polls are absolute garbage…

But until I see that, I'm sticking with what is tried and true, not withstanding 2016..

But even as off as they were in 2016…they were single digits off…not 30+ off…

texagbeliever said:

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FireAg said:

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I'd be surprised if there were a ton...why?

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There are 2 aspects to undecided: Those who say they are undecided and those who say they are still open to voting for another candidate. Keeping in mind a Republican Primary vote is not as stark of a difference in a vote for Trump vs DeSantis as Trump vs Biden (people are more likely to switch on voting day).

That said, Trump's base is generally the most loyal and ranks least likely to consider another candidate. Polls indicate that part out. This would be expected as well based on who comprises each base. That generally means the switching won't likely be Trump voters going to DeSantis/Haley.

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True. But, his hardcore base is about 25%. Then he has probably another 10% that aren't as solid.

The rest will vote for Trump but can be persuaded to vote for others.

I've been paying attention to Vivek lately and more I listen the more I like. He's gotten more aggressive against Trump. He'll take votes away from Trump.

Language warning. Dilley is one of the top Meme creators for Team Trump and now they are dumping him and he's not happy. Funny thing is they have loved him but I guess now they are finding him embarrassing. Wonder when Loomer gets the treatment? Dilley has always been repulsive.

Try not to laugh: Di11ey is crying because the Trump Campaign finds him personally repulsive and doesn’t want to be implicated in his massive FEC violation.

He never loved you, Di11ey.

pic.twitter.com/ktKIQZk7Ub

— Warlord Max (@MaxNordau) January 10, 2024

The DeSantis documentary on Covid is going to be amazing. Hopefully we aren't stuck with Trump by that time. I just don't know how anyone that lived through that mess can watch this and not want this guy in the WH.

In a weird way it reminds me of watching "West Wing" when they would always make Jake Bartlett into the smartest man in the room who had done his own research and knew how to put smart people around him. Of course that was a BS TV show wet dream Democrats had. This is basically the conservative version, only he is constantly putting liberty and limited government first. Great stuff.

On DeSantis: 

"I don't think I told him about a paper that he hadn't already seen. I was taken aback. Frankly, he's more knowledgeable than many of my Stanford colleagues about Covid science." 

-Dr. Jay Bhattacharya pic.twitter.com/rkMY55Pwlt

— American Girl (@AmGirl86) January 9, 2024

Melania's mother has passed.

It is with deep sadness that I announce the passing of my beloved mother, Amalija.

Amalija Knavs was a strong woman who always carried herself with grace, warmth, and dignity.  She was entirely devoted to her husband, daughters, grandson, and son-in-law. We will miss her beyond…

— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) January 10, 2024

Sad

She was a graceful FLotUS. She learned that somewhere....

Maybe, just maybe @realDonaldTrump could sum up the courage to show up and debate @RonDeSantis and tell him in person. pic.twitter.com/htkJNGZtAq

— Michele Perry (@MTPerry_Powell) January 10, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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Melania's mother has passed.

It is with deep sadness that I announce the passing of my beloved mother, Amalija.

Amalija Knavs was a strong woman who always carried herself with grace, warmth, and dignity.  She was entirely devoted to her husband, daughters, grandson, and son-in-law. We will miss her beyond…

— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) January 10, 2024

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That post has 5MM views and 140k likes. That is a good reach.

Yet the posters on this thread who used Melania's absence from a Christmas picture as evidence that she and Trump were separated and scoffed that her mother was seriously ill as the real reason for her abence won't acknowledge their <ahem> "error."

aggiehawg said:

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Melania's mother has passed.

It is with deep sadness that I announce the passing of my beloved mother, Amalija.

Amalija Knavs was a strong woman who always carried herself with grace, warmth, and dignity.  She was entirely devoted to her husband, daughters, grandson, and son-in-law. We will miss her beyond…

— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) January 10, 2024

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Losing parents sucks, definitely one of the things I have hated most about getting older. Very thankful to still have my Mom at a fiesty 86. Melania has always been a class act that was never given the respect from the media she deserved, not even basic courtesies for a First Lady.

aggiehawg said:

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Yet the posters on this thread who used Melania's absence from a Christmas picture as evidence that she and Trump were separated and scoffed that her mother was seriously ill as the real reason for her abence won't acknowledge their <ahem> "error."

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That was them definitely not being cynical and projecting the worst case onto Trump even in the face of evidence.

DeSantis is polling behind Vivek in NH. If he doesn't get a boost from Iowa and finishes with less than 5% of the vote in NH, I think he is cooked.

shiftyandquick said:

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DeSantis is polling behind Vivek in NH. If he doesn't get a boost from Iowa and finishes with less than 5% of the vote in NH, I think he is cooked.

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Only in a single poll just released...if you average the polls, DeSantis leads him by 1.3 points...but he also trails Christie by 5.7 and Haley by 23...

I do agree with you, though...if he found a way to finish below even Ramaswamy in NH, that's an extremely bad sign...

FireAg said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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DeSantis is polling behind Vivek in NH. If he doesn't get a boost from Iowa and finishes with less than 5% of the vote in NH, I think he is cooked.

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Only in a single poll jsut released...if you average the polls, DeSantis leads him by 1.3 points...but he also trails Christie by 5.7 and Haley by 23...

I do agree with you, though...if he found a way to finish below even Ramaswamy in NH, that's an extremely bad sign...

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Going back to our discussion yesterday about undecideds in Iowa/ Moving to NH, new polling on indepents or "undeclared" in NH terminology:

Quote:

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Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has trimmed former President Donald Trump's lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Trump still holds a meaningful lead in the poll, with the backing of 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire compared to Haley's 32%. The rest of the field lags far behind in the poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at less than 1%.

Support for Haley has risen 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, continuing an upward trajectory that began last summer, while her opponents - including Trump have seen their numbers remain stable or tick slightly downward since autumn.

Haley's support has grown dramatically among those voters registered as undeclared, New Hampshire's term for independent registrants she's up 18 points with this group since November. It has also grown 20 points among those who are ideologically moderate. Those gains come amid a push from her campaign in the state, including an endorsement last month from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. The Granite State's GOP primary is January 23.

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. LINK

I am skeptical of the reported rise in Haley support just among that (previously invisible?) group. 18 points in one month?

Thanks Trump!!

WHAT A MESS! Multiple state Republican Parties are going broke, and they're in the swing states so ... the GOP will have no ground game. The RNC has just $9 million in the bank when it normally would have $50 million at this point. A lot of Trump's campaign cash is going for…

— Tara Servatius (@TaraServatius) January 9, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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Yet the posters on this thread who used Melania's absence from a Christmas picture as evidence that she and Trump were separated and scoffed that her mother was seriously ill as the real reason for her abence won't acknowledge their <ahem> "error."

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Not going to go into the details, because it is a sorrowful time for anyone to lose a parent, so that particular instance was absolutely explainable. There are reasons why it came up, though, that had nothing to do with the Christmas picture and was why it was a curious absence. Otherwise no one would have questioned it.

Quote:

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There are reasons why it came up, though, that had nothing to do with the Christmas picture and was why it was a curious absence. Otherwise no one would have questioned it.

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Not an excuse for that behavior. Just admit they were wrong and mean-spirited and owe Melania and Trump an apology.

aggiehawg said:

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Yet the posters on this thread who used Melania's absence from a Christmas picture as evidence that she and Trump were separated and scoffed that her mother was seriously ill as the real reason for her abence won't acknowledge their <ahem> "error."

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literally NO ONE scoffed at her mother being ill- please provide evidence of this absurd claim.

Not sure if you are just too dense to understand or lying- but massive amounts of people in the USA were noting that Melania has not been to any Trump rallies, is never in Iowa the last 6 months, does nothing to support the campaign-

while her husband is seen continuously with a much younger, prettier "attorney" who is always by Trump's side and in his private plane and at social events.

THAT is what people were discussing. And the fact that a FAMILY PHOTO can always be taken another day- or, get this, you can actually have a family photo in several different places now in the United States! You could even have a family photo in a hospital!

as for your feelings about Melania's mother- let's look at Trump's social media posts yesterday as his mother in law was dying shall we?

you seem to be much more concerned with anonymous posters on a Texas Aggie Message board and how they feel about Melania's mother in law- instead of how MELANIA'S ACTUAL HUSBAND running for his third Presidential campaign has been acting.

Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Yet the posters on this thread who used Melania's absence from a Christmas picture as evidence that she and Trump were separated and scoffed that her mother was seriously ill as the real reason for her abence won't acknowledge their <ahem> "error."

---

Not going to go into the details, because it is a sorrowful time for anyone to lose a parent, so that particular instance was absolutely explainable. There are reasons why it came up, though, that had nothing to do with the Christmas picture and was why it was a curious absence. Otherwise no one would have questioned it.

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Translation: I'm not going to admit i was wrong and dug my heels into the ground in the face of easily accessible information. But Trump is bad so, I'm justified. Maybe take steps to not be so biased in your reactions?

aggiehawg said:

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FireAg said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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DeSantis is polling behind Vivek in NH. If he doesn't get a boost from Iowa and finishes with less than 5% of the vote in NH, I think he is cooked.

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Only in a single poll jsut released...if you average the polls, DeSantis leads him by 1.3 points...but he also trails Christie by 5.7 and Haley by 23...

I do agree with you, though...if he found a way to finish below even Ramaswamy in NH, that's an extremely bad sign...

---

Going back to our discussion yesterday about undecideds in Iowa/ Moving to NH, new polling on indepents or "undeclared" in NH terminology:

Quote:

---

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has trimmed former President Donald Trump's lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Trump still holds a meaningful lead in the poll, with the backing of 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire compared to Haley's 32%. The rest of the field lags far behind in the poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at less than 1%.

Support for Haley has risen 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, continuing an upward trajectory that began last summer, while her opponents - including Trump have seen their numbers remain stable or tick slightly downward since autumn.

Haley's support has grown dramatically among those voters registered as undeclared, New Hampshire's term for independent registrants she's up 18 points with this group since November. It has also grown 20 points among those who are ideologically moderate. Those gains come amid a push from her campaign in the state, including an endorsement last month from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. The Granite State's GOP primary is January 23.

---

. LINK

I am skeptical of the reported rise in Haley support just among that (previously invisible?) group. 18 points in one month?

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It's a poll, so, it's trash. But....have you seen the insane gibberish Trump has spewed from the basement in the last month?

If not, check your magnets...they might have gotten wet.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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There are reasons why it came up, though, that had nothing to do with the Christmas picture and was why it was a curious absence. Otherwise no one would have questioned it.

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Not an excuse for that behavior. Just admit they were wrong and mean-spirited and owe Melania and Trump an apology.

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Not sure if serious... would Trump have any time left to fight his lawsuits and fire of "truths" if he did that? I just don't think that is part of politics anymore. He's the king of that kind of politics, so I don't think it's reasonable to expect that.

As I have been noting for several weeks now, the only candidate I was seeing that was gaining significant ground on Trump has been Haley...I think a lot of folks who reside center or slightly left of center are gravitating toward her and away Biden...think she's having the same effect on those right of center as it relates to Trump...

Some have noted that she could be the "compromise" candidate in a general election (and nationally, she is the only one who outperfroms Trump vs Biden)...

The phenomenon certianly appears to have merit on the east coast (especially mid to upper east coast also demographics tend to lean more to the left in general)...

Would that same trend occur out west in places like AZ and CA? I think it's possible, assuming she remains viable...time will tell...

ETA: She definitely cut Trump's lead to single digits in the CNN NH poll, but on the average, still trails by almost 14 points...still, versus Trump, her rise in NH has absolutly meteoric compared to the field... I think she's a real player for the nomination...if certain things go her way...

At a minimum, I don't see how she isn't at least a strong VP contender...

Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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There are reasons why it came up, though, that had nothing to do with the Christmas picture and was why it was a curious absence. Otherwise no one would have questioned it.

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Not an excuse for that behavior. Just admit they were wrong and mean-spirited and owe Melania and Trump an apology.

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Not sure if serious... would Trump have any time left to fight his lawsuits and fire of "truths" if he did that? I just don't think that is part of politics anymore. He's the king of that kind of politics, so I don't think it's reasonable to expect that.

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I hate Trump for this behavior. But since he uses it, I too am justified in using it.

To defeat the thing one hates one should become the thing they hate. #BadLogic.

texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Yet the posters on this thread who used Melania's absence from a Christmas picture as evidence that she and Trump were separated and scoffed that her mother was seriously ill as the real reason for her abence won't acknowledge their <ahem> "error."

---

Not going to go into the details, because it is a sorrowful time for anyone to lose a parent, so that particular instance was absolutely explainable. There are reasons why it came up, though, that had nothing to do with the Christmas picture and was why it was a curious absence. Otherwise no one would have questioned it.

---

Translation: I'm not going to admit i was wrong and dug my heels into the ground in the face of easily accessible information. But Trump is bad so, I'm justified. Maybe take steps to not be so biased in your reactions?

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Read my posts, I just said the generic responses they gave would be what anyone who was separated for other reasons would say. Trump being bad had nothing to do with it, and my reaction was to the immediate goal tending that has to be done, not to the picture. I don't give 2 shakes of a rats ass about his married life.

FireAg said:

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As I have been noting for several weeks now, the only candidate I was seeing that was gaining significant ground on Trump has been Haley...I think a lot of folks who reside center or slightly left of center are gravitating toward her and away Biden...think she's having the same effect on those right of center as it relates to Trump...

Some have noted that she could be the "compromise" candidate in a general election (and nationally, she is the only one who outperfroms Trump vs Biden)...

The phenomenon certianly appears to have merit on the east coast (especially mid to upper east coast also demographics tend to lean more to the left in general)...

Would that same trend occur out west in places like AZ and CA? I think it's possible, assuming she remains viable...time will tell...

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This brings up an interesting point about Haley. She is managing to engage "sophisticated" moderates. DeSantis engages the true blood Christian conservatives. Leaving Trump with the less sophisticated moderates.

Or translated: Trump is keeping his moderate base from Dems, Haley is recruiting a moderate base that was Dems, and DeSantis is firing up the conservative base. All of those are good things to be happening in the primary stage. The primary isn't just about electing a winner, it is about setting up the potential candidate to be a winner.

Quote:

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At a minimum, I don't see how she isn't at least a strong VP contender...

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That still rates as an, "Ugh," from me.

texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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There are reasons why it came up, though, that had nothing to do with the Christmas picture and was why it was a curious absence. Otherwise no one would have questioned it.

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Not an excuse for that behavior. Just admit they were wrong and mean-spirited and owe Melania and Trump an apology.

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Not sure if serious... would Trump have any time left to fight his lawsuits and fire of "truths" if he did that? I just don't think that is part of politics anymore. He's the king of that kind of politics, so I don't think it's reasonable to expect that.

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I hate Trump for this behavior. But since he uses it, I too am justified in using it.

To defeat the thing one hates one should become the thing they hate. #BadLogic.

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This is rich... Isn't this the entire basis of supporting Trump?