texagbeliever said:
Phatbob said:
FireAg said:
Phatbob said:
FireAg said:
But every single poll is different...so how can you say "all polls" suck when they use different methodologies?
Again, I agree that and single poll is subject to intense scrutiny...I have zero issue with that...
Where I take issue is applying that same level of scuritny to "all polls" when you are looking at an average of what most experts generally accept as being the "best polls" for a a variety of reasons...
When applying them as part of an overall average, statistically speaking, you smooth out most outliers, thus giving you a pretty good "idea" of what is happening in general...
There was quite a bit of analysis and scrutiny applied to polling entities after 2016...the autopsies of 2016 had most polling firms modify their formats to help address the issues that were seen...sicne 2016, I am not aware of polling averages being categorically inaccurate...
Could they be this time, you bet they could...but until they are, I don't understand how anyone can claim such in good conscience...
Look, I could be wrong, I will admit that, but if you think the same people who thought to manipulate social media to shape public opinion a decade ago at this point now, with tools that are factors of 100x more effective, can't come up with the idea to manipulate the way even polling averages appear to affect your voting behavior seems naive.
There is ALWAYS a way to game the system. The incentives to do so have never been higher, and the tools to make it possible have never been more readily available.
This is what bugs me about the "anti-polling" folks…no one can point to anything more than "gut feeling" and "2016" as to why polling averages shouldn't be trusted…
I respect your honesty, and everyone is certainly entitled to believe what they want until the votes are cast…but if you look at things rationally, and without prejudice, it's hard to argue they aren't currently the best metric we have for gaining some insight as to what is going on…
Personally I think the polls will prove out now to be as accurate as YouTube comments. It's too valuable a system to game and there really is very little incentive to get it right and very few consequences for being wrong.
This makes no sense. If ALL the pollsters are getting fake results, then this would represent a fantastic opportunity for a smaller polling company to make a big name for themselves and capitalize on the money and attention of being the only one that got it right. That happened with 538 (they had Obama's inside polling), happened with Trafalgar.
The difference between youtube comments and pollsters is there is much more real $$s and reputation at stake to be off by 25-40+ points.
The part you're missing is you assume the people/campaigns/media sources
actually want an accurate poll. The point other posters are making is that the entities commisioning polls these days are not interested in impartial accurate results.
Campaigns want polls to falsely reflect their candidate is in the lead or gaining ground because perception often becomes reality. Paint the picture of a candidate dominating and the average voter thinks, "Well jeez, what's the point of making the effort to vote for my candidate when that other guy is so clearly ahead!". Or, "Hey, this guy is really dominating in thd polls, everyone loves him. You know they're probably right!". Never underestimate the herd mentaility, and polls these days are designed to shepherd that herd
Media sources are dominated by the ideology of their corporate owners. There is no impartiality in media these days. You honestly think the latest CBS, NBC, or Fox polls are completely unbiased?
And reputations at stake? Come on. How wrong have all of these pollsters and media sources been since 2015 or so. Yet we're still getting their polls and news stories shoved down our throats, simply because there's no alternative. See my statement above about impartiality. These same people don't care about their reputations. Heck, these days their reputations would likely suffer if they actually did try to be impartial. The consumers of NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, NY Times, etc
expect these outlets to be biased, that's why they go there for their news....confirmation bias.