I agree with you…I just don't think it will be enough…

My take on the latest on this thread:

Not Trump Poster: Did you see the weather today? It was a beautiful sunny day!

FireAg: You know what isn't sunny? DeSantis' chances in Iowa. Polls show he isn't gaining any at all on Trump who continues to hold a 33 pt lead. If only DeSantis would have done everything different, he might have had a chance but he just can't connect with any voters at all.

Not Trump Poster: WTF???

Just ribbing you FireAg...gotta have SOME fun or this politics **** will drive us all mad.

FireAg said:

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Nah…as the challenger, you want wins, especially when you're ruining 3rd/4the in two of the next three states…

As others have said…DeSantis needs an outright win in Iowa to pick up some much needed momentum…

He's pushed most of his chips in there, and banking on a win to propel him forward…a moral victory in Iowa won't do it…

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It could definitely open the door for Haley to win in NH...and then Trump would have TWO subpar performances.

Sure, it's not optimal for DeSantis, but for Not Trump, it is a big boost.

I think Vivek can really hurt Trump. Vivek takes more votes away Trump than DeSantis and Haley imo. Vivek has been working hard in Iowa and while he doesn't directly attack Trump, he's does in a subtle sneaky way. If he over performs, it's at the expense of Trump.

Can somebody remind me again why the DeSantis Twitter people are the problem and not this?

You’re not even a natural born citizen.

Your parents abused the immigration system and you are an anchor baby.

You don’t believe illegals are criminals.

You’re an open borders anchor baby neocon.

Wish we could deport you. https://t.co/ss4Zeqtlg7

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) January 8, 2024

Dan Scott said:

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Can somebody remind me again why the DeSantis Twitter people are the problem and not this?

You’re not even a natural born citizen.

Your parents abused the immigration system and you are an anchor baby.

You don’t believe illegals are criminals.

You’re an open borders anchor baby neocon.

Wish we could deport you. https://t.co/ss4Zeqtlg7

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) January 8, 2024

---

How is she an anchor baby by any stretch?

Tanya 93 said:

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How is she an anchor baby by any stretch?

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Come on, Tanya. It's easy.....if you have the IQ of a potato.

BigRobSA said:

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Tanya 93 said:

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How is she an anchor baby by any stretch?

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Come on, Tanya. It's easy.....if you have the IQ of a potato.

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But Biden didn't tweet that!

UAS Ag said:

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FireAg said:

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But what I don't believe is that the polling averages are >33 points off... I believe they could actually be as much as 20 points off (which would be absolutely unprecedented in Iowa on caucus day), but even if they are that far off, it doesn't change the fact that Trump still wins...

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Right now on 538 Trump is up 49% to 17%. Let's say Trump keeps all of that 49% but DeSantis gains your 20 pts to put him at 37%.

Trump then would get 20 delegates and DeSantis would get 15.

That would be a HUGE hit for Trump even though he "won". His shroud of "inevitability" would have been pierced. And that shroud is Trump's biggest strength right now.

MAGA is about 25%. That is going NOWHERE. But the other 25% Trump has is NOT solid at all...and a result like that in Iowa could have big repercussions in the following primaries.

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Are Iowa GOP primary electors divided up by the entire state vote, or by the precinct vote?

Tanya 93 said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Can somebody remind me again why the DeSantis Twitter people are the problem and not this?

You’re not even a natural born citizen.

Your parents abused the immigration system and you are an anchor baby.

You don’t believe illegals are criminals.

You’re an open borders anchor baby neocon.

Wish we could deport you. https://t.co/ss4Zeqtlg7

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) January 8, 2024

---

How is she an anchor baby by any stretch?

---

because Trumpers need to lie and claim Haley is not "American" like Trump is..

so the fact Haley's parents are Indian then becomes another reason for Trumpers to bash her.

Chip Roy is telling folks that a huge upset is coming in Iowa...

Will be interesting to see...

Dan Scott said:

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I think Vivek can really hurt Trump. Vivek takes more votes away Trump than DeSantis and Haley imo. Vivek has been working hard in Iowa and while he doesn't directly attack Trump, he's does in a subtle sneaky way. If he over performs, it's at the expense of Trump.

---

it's an interesting claim you make, that even if Vivek gets only 7 or 8% in Iowa who is he drawing that support from?

DeSantis or Trump?

the interesting thing is that why all of a sudden are Trumpers going after Haley when they have ignored her up until now?

unless they feel suddenly she could be an actual threat to beat Trump

because if she was not, they would pump her up to split the vote with DeSantis.

UAS Ag said:

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My take on the latest on this thread:

Not Trump Poster: Did you see the weather today? It was a beautiful sunny day!

FireAg: You know what isn't sunny? DeSantis' chances in Iowa. Polls show he isn't gaining any at all on Trump who continues to hold a 33 pt lead. If only DeSantis would have done everything different, he might have had a chance but he just can't connect with any voters at all.

Not Trump Poster: WTF???

Just ribbing you FireAg...gotta have SOME fun or this politics **** will drive us all mad.

---

you forgot to add:

"but even though all I do is post polls for months discussing how it's impossible for DeSantis to win,

and even though all I ever post are reasons DeSantis is an awful candidate,

I really am supporting DeSantis and not Trump.

Come on, you have to believe me, I really am not supporting Trump!!"

Dan Scott said:

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Can somebody remind me again why the DeSantis Twitter people are the problem and not this?

You’re not even a natural born citizen.

Your parents abused the immigration system and you are an anchor baby.

You don’t believe illegals are criminals.

You’re an open borders anchor baby neocon.

Wish we could deport you. https://t.co/ss4Zeqtlg7

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) January 8, 2024

---

Loomer showing why she's one of Trump's #bestpeople.

Believe what you want...you're not worth my time anymore as you are clearly uninterested in meanignful dialog...

Any critique of DeSantis (and he is the one being critiqued because he is the one trailing with regard to the two subjects in the title of this thread) means "Trumper" to you... If that's the security blanket that helps you sleep at night while your head is in the sand with regard to what is actually happening (as opposed to wish-casting), then so be it...

I will not waste anymore bandwidth on you trying to have a meaningful discussion...ignore feature is a great tool...you should use it too...

My observation is this, the diehard DeSantis crew are extreme cynics. Any answer that doesn't allow them to be cynical and negative they reject. This is fed by their newsfeeds which through their liking and reposting feeds them more and more cynical based content. So they are in this technological cynical loop and want desperately to pull others into it.

The only solutions to persuade such a person are to give them a reason to face the world with courage. To encourage them to take a break and step back from incessant negative content. To focus on positives and imagine a better world that is still realistic.

I believe LMC has picked up on the cynicism of DeSantis diehards and is playing them. Cynics become addicted to negativity and have a vulnerability. His posts don't really fit into the same cynical tone as the others. His posting style earlier on, before i called it out, was extremely atypical. That is why i suggest not engaging that individual.

They are on ignore…

I try to give everyone a chance at having meaningful dialogue…but I can only beat my head against a brick wall for so long…

You can discuss reality, even if it doesn't conform to what you want to happen…

I'm actually pretty disappointed with how things will turn out…but I can certainly accept reality and hope we all learn from it moving forward…

texagbeliever said:

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My observation is this, the diehard DeSantis crew are extreme cynics. Any answer that doesn't allow them to be cynical and negative they reject. This is fed by their newsfeeds which through their liking and reposting feeds them more and more cynical based content. So they are in this technological cynical loop and want desperately to pull others into it.

The only solutions to persuade such a person are to give them a reason to face the world with courage. To encourage them to take a break and step back from incessant negative content. To focus on positives and imagine a better world that is still realistic.

I believe LMC has picked up on the cynicism of DeSantis diehards and is playing them. Cynics become addicted to negativity and have a vulnerability. His posts don't really fit into the same cynical tone as the others. His posting style earlier on, before i called it out, was extremely atypical. That is why i suggest not engaging that individual.

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My attraction to DeSantis is actually the exact opposite of cynicism. It is because he is the most effective and successful conservative of my lifetime. I've certainly made that clear here with threads talking about his W's. Is there negative content? Sure, it's politics. I just don't get the "cynicism" argument at all, people like DeSantis because he gets stuff done and has a positive vision, not because he is a cynic.

Believe what you will though. Trump is certainly always sunshine and optimism and isn't cynical at all.

This is just bizarre by Fox. DeSantis has very publicly been documenting doing the Full Grassley and has done over 250 events in Iowa. As mentioned Grassley himself was there to congratulate DeSantis at his 99th County.

Look at what @FoxNews just showed! RonDesantis has had an event in all 99 counties, the Full Grassley. Chuck Grassley congratulated RDS. Based on this, how "Fair & Balanced" will tonight's townhall with RDS be? pic.twitter.com/fZVdadhHRc

— Iowa David (@davidkbaugh) January 9, 2024

aggie93 said:

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This is just bizarre by Fox. DeSantis has very publicly been documenting doing the Full Grassley and has done over 250 events in Iowa. As mentioned Grassley himself was there to congratulate DeSantis at his 99th County.

Look at what @FoxNews just showed! RonDesantis has had an event in all 99 counties, the Full Grassley. Chuck Grassley congratulated RDS. Based on this, how "Fair & Balanced" will tonight's townhall with RDS be? pic.twitter.com/fZVdadhHRc

— Iowa David (@davidkbaugh) January 9, 2024

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Fox wants Trump because Trump = ratings.

And then when he loses, it means even more ratings because they will cover all his claims of fraud, and then have 4 more years to pretend to be to the only major media outlet opposing the Democrats.

aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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My observation is this, the diehard DeSantis crew are extreme cynics. Any answer that doesn't allow them to be cynical and negative they reject. This is fed by their newsfeeds which through their liking and reposting feeds them more and more cynical based content. So they are in this technological cynical loop and want desperately to pull others into it.

The only solutions to persuade such a person are to give them a reason to face the world with courage. To encourage them to take a break and step back from incessant negative content. To focus on positives and imagine a better world that is still realistic.

I believe LMC has picked up on the cynicism of DeSantis diehards and is playing them. Cynics become addicted to negativity and have a vulnerability. His posts don't really fit into the same cynical tone as the others. His posting style earlier on, before i called it out, was extremely atypical. That is why i suggest not engaging that individual.

---

My attraction to DeSantis is actually the exact opposite of cynicism. It is because he is the most effective and successful conservative of my lifetime. I've certainly made that clear here with threads talking about his W's. Is there negative content? Sure, it's politics. I just don't get the "cynicism" argument at all, people like DeSantis because he gets stuff done and has a positive vision, not because he is a cynic.

Believe what you will though. Trump is certainly always sunshine and optimism and isn't cynical at all.

---

You see 1 way of success. DeSantis winning. Trump winning is impossible. I am not convinced at this point that you believe Trump beating the Democrats would even really be a good thing (many DeSantis Diehards don't think it would be). You post countless threads with weak attacks against Trump. Do you notice how I, FireAg, Aggiehawg NEVER start threads attacking DeSantis. We never even actually attack him in regular threads. We point out how he isn't gaining polling momentum. Point out how it doesn't look like he is going to be able to overtake Trump.

I agree DeSantis the politician isn't cynical but he hasn't yet captured the inspirational aspect needed to win a presidential election. A president has to be able to move people from cynical to courageous. That motivates them to vote. That motivates them to volunteer, donate money, buy gear, etc. DeSantis has many great accomplishments that does not make him an inspirational character for most people (you can be upset at this reality, thats fine, but it is real). What I want to see from DeSantis is this ability to present his successes as other people's success (Florida residents etc). This is what Trump does exceptionally well (Obama did as well), his fight was the people's fight. His victory was their victory. He sold himself not as a politician but an outsider. How do most Americans feel? As outsiders.

I agree with a lot of this…

DeSantis has to find talking points that resonate with the masses…that connect him with the masses…

He has the resume…he lacks that connection…

Quote:

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Then vigorously post polls, polls, and more polls. If Desantis has a zero chance why all the energy or obsession repeatedly posting polls, polls, and more polls.

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Which other metrics are there that are more indicative of the state of the race? Polls are snapshots not predictive in my view but that doesn't make them completely worthless, IMO.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Then vigorously post polls, polls, and more polls. If Desantis has a zero chance why all the energy or obsession repeatedly posting polls, polls, and more polls.

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Which other metrics are there that are more indicative of the state of the race? Polls are snapshots not predictive in my view but that doesn't make them completely worthless, IMO.

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I follow the averages...any single poll can be garbage...but when averaged in with other polls, I think we get a decent snapshot of where things stand...I also think the trends shed quite a bit of light on how things are progressing...

I have asked for metrics other than polls on this thread previosuly...and all I get are claims from this campaign or that about how many people they have supposedly signed up to caucus for this candidate or that...

Now those claims might be 100% ACCURATE...but thee is simply no way to verify them leading up to caucus day...

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Then vigorously post polls, polls, and more polls. If Desantis has a zero chance why all the energy or obsession repeatedly posting polls, polls, and more polls.

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Which other metrics are there that are more indicative of the state of the race? Polls are snapshots not predictive in my view but that doesn't make them completely worthless, IMO.

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I agree. They are a factor. But some see them as being more viable than the results of the race itself. Illogical I know but obsession will do that to some.

Quote:

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I agree. They are a factor. But some see them as being more viable than the results of the race itself. Illogical I know but obsession will do that to some.

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That was superfluous and unwarranted. Do you write for WaPo, by chance?

All polls are non-scientific garbage. All of them. My team's, your team's, all teams'. Pure, unadulterated, garbage.

Always have been, always will be.

Even "averages" of the garbage is....well, garbage.

While living in Iowa, I was polled numerous times. You can tell what direction they are trying to direct you in. Was called by Dems, Republicans, and 3rd party pollsters.

And I tell you....absolute garbage.

FireAg said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Then vigorously post polls, polls, and more polls. If Desantis has a zero chance why all the energy or obsession repeatedly posting polls, polls, and more polls.

---

Which other metrics are there that are more indicative of the state of the race? Polls are snapshots not predictive in my view but that doesn't make them completely worthless, IMO.

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I follow the averages...any single poll can be garbage...but when averaged in with other polls, I think we get a decent snapshot of where things stand...I also think the trends shed quite a bit of light on how things are progressing...

I have asked for metrics other than polls on this thread previosuly...and all I get are claims from this campaign or that about how many people they have supposedly signed up to caucus for this candidate or that...

Now those claims might be 100% ACCURATE...but thee is simply no way to verify them leading up to caucus day...

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The issue I have with polls is that we don't live in 2016, 2020, or even 2022. The world of media and our interactions have changed so dramatically that it might as well be a completely different millennia as far as what we think polls mean. Google was changing public opinion 20 years ago just from what they showed on their search results, and right now every single person on the planet has tools that can analyze and present truth or lies in whatever format looks the best to get a particular result. On a multitude of levels, there is good reason enough to trust polls the least they have ever been trusted right now, from how they connect to the public to the very incentives they have to shape their results.

texagbeliever said:

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aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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My observation is this, the diehard DeSantis crew are extreme cynics. Any answer that doesn't allow them to be cynical and negative they reject. This is fed by their newsfeeds which through their liking and reposting feeds them more and more cynical based content. So they are in this technological cynical loop and want desperately to pull others into it.

The only solutions to persuade such a person are to give them a reason to face the world with courage. To encourage them to take a break and step back from incessant negative content. To focus on positives and imagine a better world that is still realistic.

I believe LMC has picked up on the cynicism of DeSantis diehards and is playing them. Cynics become addicted to negativity and have a vulnerability. His posts don't really fit into the same cynical tone as the others. His posting style earlier on, before i called it out, was extremely atypical. That is why i suggest not engaging that individual.

---

My attraction to DeSantis is actually the exact opposite of cynicism. It is because he is the most effective and successful conservative of my lifetime. I've certainly made that clear here with threads talking about his W's. Is there negative content? Sure, it's politics. I just don't get the "cynicism" argument at all, people like DeSantis because he gets stuff done and has a positive vision, not because he is a cynic.

Believe what you will though. Trump is certainly always sunshine and optimism and isn't cynical at all.

---

You see 1 way of success. DeSantis winning. Trump winning is impossible. I am not convinced at this point that you believe Trump beating the Democrats would even really be a good thing (many DeSantis Diehards don't think it would be). You post countless threads with weak attacks against Trump. Do you notice how I, FireAg, Aggiehawg NEVER start threads attacking DeSantis. We never even actually attack him in regular threads. We point out how he isn't gaining polling momentum. Point out how it doesn't look like he is going to be able to overtake Trump.

I agree DeSantis the politician isn't cynical but he hasn't yet captured the inspirational aspect needed to win a presidential election. A president has to be able to move people from cynical to courageous. That motivates them to vote. That motivates them to volunteer, donate money, buy gear, etc. DeSantis has many great accomplishments that does not make him an inspirational character for most people (you can be upset at this reality, thats fine, but it is real). What I want to see from DeSantis is this ability to present his successes as other people's success (Florida residents etc). This is what Trump does exceptionally well (Obama did as well), his fight was the people's fight. His victory was their victory. He sold himself not as a politician but an outsider. How do most Americans feel? As outsiders.

---

I don't see "1 way of success" but I do see DeSantis as the best chance of success. Those are very different things. We have a long thread for Trump/DeSantis so not sure what the lack of starting threads to attack DeSantis is supposed to prove. Obviously this Board is more Pro DeSantis than most because it hits his demo (College educated, Suburban, Politically engaged conservatives) but Texags isn't real life for good and bad. I don't know how many times I have said I think Trump is likely the nominee so not sure of your point on momentum and polls. I'm happy to back DeSantis as long as he is a candidate even if I am the only person who votes for him in the Primary. In the General I will vote for the R.

The rest is just feeling and opinion. You feel Trump connects with people and fights for them. For me one of the things I love about him is how he uses my Dad's old quote of "It's amazing what you can accomplish if you don't care who gets the credit". We see what we see. I see DeSantis as far more of a selfless leader than Trump who walks the walk on his rhetoric and has put the needs of the People above himself time after time. You see it differently. As to why Desantis has succeeded or not in getting out his message is debatable. He has extremely high favorable ratings in spite of massive amounts of money and major influencers that attack him with outright lies about being a Bush/RINO or owned by his donors or a dozen other things. In the end I agree he has to find a way to punch through that to win. If not he is 45 years old so he has plenty of time.

I don't hate Trump. I voted for him in '20 and did so happily. I will vote for him if he is the nominee. There are worse options than him on the GOP slate for sure and he is far better than any D. I just think we can do much better and my experience in watching politics since the 80s tells me he is likely to lose the General and if he wins he will have a very hard time being effective. I'd rather have someone that wins and can be effective.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Then vigorously post polls, polls, and more polls. If Desantis has a zero chance why all the energy or obsession repeatedly posting polls, polls, and more polls.

---

Which other metrics are there that are more indicative of the state of the race? Polls are snapshots not predictive in my view but that doesn't make them completely worthless, IMO.

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I think the argument is polls are a data point. The fact that the polls seem so out of touch with other information we see is also noteworthy. It's weird that we have had so few polls in Iowa compared to previous years while we have so many other polls. Then you have stuff like the Morning Consult poll that was just released with a very small sample showing Desantis at 14% behind Haley. Morning Consult has been one of the main polls released and it is owned by James Murdoch who is a big Biden donor and of course is the heir apparent at Fox. There is no polling company that has pushed positive polls for Trump more than they have. Harris is another one that has shown dramatic good news for Trump consistently and is Hillary's pollster. So why are Democrats showing polls that have Trump in such a favorable light against DeSantis and against Biden? I mean I guess you can believe they are being transparent if you want.

Considering DeSantis has 60,000 people that have signed Caucus cards for him and his team in Iowa is reaching out to them weekly that makes no sense. If only those people show up that's about 30% of the vote in Iowa.

I'm just looking forward to some actual votes in a week. Maybe DeSantis gets crushed and it's over. Ok. Maybe Haley pulls the "Strong 2nd" that Sununu is projecting. Ok. Maybe DeSantis proves the polls wrong and comes out with a win or very close to it. Ok. Even if DeSantis wins that just means the game is on. It doesn't mean he will win by any stretch.

I'm just tired of the polls driving the narrative so much. It's as though people just view success or failure by those polls when they are less reliable than ever. It's nearly impossible to get a real pulse on the electorate with so few people responding, so many ways polls are conducted, and with AI and other tech making it easier than ever to get whatever polling sample you want. They are a data point as I said but the way they are treated as the actual story and as if they are hard facts is just bizarre. Polls are absolutely being used as a weapon in this race by Trump. So if he wins Iowa by 43 points like MC is saying then fine. If not though I would hope that at least some people realize just how flawed the polls are at this point and how they are being used to manipulate you in various directions.