Fire - do you think Desantis has no chance and Trump is running away with the nomination? Not sure based on the 100 posts you've made saying the same thing over and over.

Do I believe pollsters reflecting a Trump lead? Sure. Lots of things go into it like name recognition and the indictments, etc.

Polls in IA and NH show a majority of voters want someone other than Trump. Furthermore, more than 60% of Trump voters are soft supporters and are shopping around.

Do I believe DeSantis is gaining ground in IA? Yes. There is growing enthusiasm, a good ground game, and Trump is on the defense in IA. Trump is making visits to IA after only a couple trips over the summer. Trump is having to build out his organization in IA with staffers moving there wasting precious dollars that could have gone to his legal fees. Then you have Trump's heartbeat bill comments alienating evangelicals. You have Trump's staffers claiming DeSantis will be out of the race sometime before Halloween - seems very desperate.

If Iowa goes to DeSantis, the dam will break and Trump is dead in the water.

I am with FireAg on this, and i will be voting for DeSantis in the primaries, and I expect to vote for Trump in the General.

Looking at Vegas betting odds online, DeSantis is at +700, which is around 12.5% chance and maybe a little less. Trump is around -400, which is around an 80% chance and maybe a little less of winning the Republican nomination.

So DeSantis has a chance yes, and if I had a 12% chance of winning the republican nomination, I would stay in too. But it is unlikely, and 4 out of 5 times Trump will win the nomination.

What I wouldn't do is spew vitriol over and disparage the likely republican nominee. Many on this board detest Trump, but the alternative which is an incapacitated Biden.

Nominating Trump will give Dems control of the House and Senate. I hope people enjoy their Socialist overlords.

Wyoming said:

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I am with FireAg on this, and i will be voting for DeSantis in the primaries, and I expect to vote for Trump in the General.

Looking at Vegas betting odds online, DeSantis is at +700, which is around 12.5% chance and maybe a little less. Trump is around -400, which is around an 80% chance and maybe a little less of winning the Republican nomination.

So DeSantis has a chance yes, and if I had a 12% chance of winning the republican nomination, I would stay in too. But it is unlikely, and 4 out of 5 times Trump will win the nomination.

What I wouldn't do is spew vitriol over and disparage the likely republican nominee. Many on this board detest Trump, but the alternative which is an incapacitated Biden.

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If the Republican party embraces Trump, then it has embraced the Democrat party platform of the mid to late 90's. I didn't vote for it then, and I sure as hell am not voting for it now, because it is still the same problem it was then. I need more than "not Joe Biden" to justify voting for someone, because that isn't what the ballot is.

Look on your ballot when it's time to vote. It's doesn't have a "Not Joe Biden" slot. You are voting FOR someone. You can justify it in your mind if you need to, but I can't. Trump is part of the problem and him not running as a Dem doesn't make that go away.

TRM said:

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If Iowa goes to DeSantis, the dam will break and Trump is dead in the water.

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You do understand that, historically speaking, Iowa is a poor predictor for who will be the R nominee, right?

Even if Trump wins Iowa, it means very little...

Historically, Iowa also favors the incumbent, and no, Trump is not, by definition, the "incumbent" in this case, but he might as well be for all practical purposes...

Remember when Biden said, if you don't vote for me, "you ain't black," and how incredulous we were because of the things that he and done and said in the past that were blatantly anti-black?

Yet, we're told today that if we don't support Trump (the lifelong NYC democrat that's wishy-washy on the 2nd Amendment and abortion, etc), we aren't Republican.

Go figure.

Who exactly is telling you that you aren't Republican?

Phatbob said:

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Wyoming said:

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I am with FireAg on this, and i will be voting for DeSantis in the primaries, and I expect to vote for Trump in the General.

Looking at Vegas betting odds online, DeSantis is at +700, which is around 12.5% chance and maybe a little less. Trump is around -400, which is around an 80% chance and maybe a little less of winning the Republican nomination.

So DeSantis has a chance yes, and if I had a 12% chance of winning the republican nomination, I would stay in too. But it is unlikely, and 4 out of 5 times Trump will win the nomination.

What I wouldn't do is spew vitriol over and disparage the likely republican nominee. Many on this board detest Trump, but the alternative which is an incapacitated Biden.

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If the Republican party embraces Trump, then it has embraced the Democrat party platform of the mid to late 90's. I didn't vote for it then, and I sure as hell am not voting for it now, because it is still the same problem it was then. I need more than "not Joe Biden" to justify voting for someone, because that isn't what the ballot is.

Look on your ballot when it's time to vote. It's doesn't have a "Not Joe Biden" slot. You are voting FOR someone. You can justify it in your mind if you need to, but I can't. Trump is part of the problem and him not running as a Dem doesn't make that go away.

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Ah the elitism that allows you to not vote for the least bad option because you have a nice house in a nice neighborhood that is largely insulated from all the problems. Congrats to you. You are hugely selfish and have a huge ego (ironic because this is your big gripe with Trump). The fact you have said this same thing now 5+ times on Texags goes to show you want EVERYONE to know how righteous you are.

FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Well in the RCP average, he leads Biden…

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When it's within the margin of error, that is not a fact...

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Actually...it is a fact that polling shows that both a head-to-head with Trump or DeSantis versus Biden is within the margin of error...

What is also a fact is that Trump vs. DeSantis is currently a blowout right now, and not within the margin of error...and we are 3 months out from Iowa, and Trump is steadily pulling away...

DeSantis's only shot at being the R nominee next November is if Trump isn't on the ticket, by hook or by crook...

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Within the margin of error means that it is unknown.

BTW, what do you mean by "by hook or by crook"? You've said it several times. Could you define it?

FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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STAT 101 says you CANNOT KNOW who is leading if the lead is within the margin of error.

hth

BTW, on Oct 11, 2015, Hillary had a 3 pt lead over Trump. Hell, she had a 3.2 pt lead over Trump ON ELECTION DAY...

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Cool...here's the thing...Trump v DeSantis isn't even remotely close to being within the margin of error for the R nomination...

The Iowa Caucus is 3 months from tomorrow, and DeSantis is steadily losing ground based on polling averages...

The current gap in Iowa is 31.3 points...the current gap nationally is 44.8 points...the current gap in NH is 34.9...the current gap in SC is 34.7...the current gap in GA is 42...the current gap in AZ is 34...the current gap in Nevada is 52...the current gap in FL is 35.4...

Incidentally, I know why DeSantis is shifting a lot of focus toward NH...polling shows he's running 3.4 points behind Haley there...

As long as Trump remains viable, the race is for 2nd place...

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I like the divert from Trump definitely leading Biden to BUT DeSantis when it's pointed out that Trump may NOT be leading Biden because it's within the margin of error. (because that's what the posts we were discussing were about - Trump/Biden).

And we get that you're a Trump supporter - you CAN say it - we already know.

FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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I'm not trying to convince anyone...

The data speaks for itself...as long as Trump remains viable, DeSantis will not be the R nominee in 2024...

This isn't opinion...the gap is too big to overcome using conventional tactics...

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You aren't trying to convince anyone yet you are saying it is hopeless and the lead can't be overcome because of polling. Polls are the only justification and no other data matters.

Look, it's fine to have an opinion and I think polls have validity. It's just polls change and are often wrong. It's also absolutely true that one of the biggest arguments for Trump is inevitability and people just wanting to vote for the winner. That's why a lot of the polls are being used as a tactic now and why it is all Trump and his team talks about. At some point hopefully he will actually have to debate or make his case. Maybe he won't though and we can just close our eyes to all of his fatal flaws. As for me I am going to fight it until DeSantis either wins or is eliminated because he is by far the best chance to beat any Democrat.

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No, I am saying it is hopeless through conventional tactics...there is a path for DeSantis...but the numbers scream "not if things remain status quo"...

Some of y'all with your blinders on continue to miss that very obvious nuance...

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OOOOOH!!! Is THIS the "by hook or by crook" thing? Do tell!!!

Yes, I get that…but your argument only applies to a head-to-head vs Biden argument and I have readily admitted that multiple times…

But when we are talking about the R primary, the MOE argument is moot because polling doesn't just show a defeat…it's a shellacking…

And by hook or by crook means coming up with a way, whatever that means, where Trump would be prohibited from running…

Taking Trump off the ballot is DeSantis's only realistic chance at this point…

FireAg said:

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TRM said:

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If only Johnny would have listened to the polls in 2012 and not played that game in Tuscaloosa.

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Well he scrambled and fumbled with the whole Twitter announcement debacle...now he just needs a wide open Swope in the end zone...

So I guess there's a chance...

Bottom line...DeSantis's approach to this primary cycle used old paradigm tactics...and it was the wrong approach...the paradigm shifted tremendously, and they failed to get the memo...

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What "new" paradigm is Trump employing since it's shifted?

TRM said:

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Do I believe pollsters reflecting a Trump lead? Sure. Lots of things go into it like name recognition and the indictments, etc.

Polls in IA and NH show a majority of voters want someone other than Trump. Furthermore, more than 60% of Trump voters are soft supporters and are shopping around.

Do I believe DeSantis is gaining ground in IA? Yes. There is growing enthusiasm, a good ground game, and Trump is on the defense in IA. Trump is making visits to IA after only a couple trips over the summer. Trump is having to build out his organization in IA with staffers moving there wasting precious dollars that could have gone to his legal fees. Then you have Trump's heartbeat bill comments alienating evangelicals. You have Trump's staffers claiming DeSantis will be out of the race sometime before Halloween - seems very desperate.

If Iowa goes to DeSantis, the dam will break and Trump is dead in the water.

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The thing is, and BigRob can attest, that the caucus system in IA is not like here in TX where you just drop in and vote for your choice then go home. They have to be engaged and actively stick around and CAUCUS for their candidate. That requires a lot more than just tepid support for the candidate.

This thread is about Trump v DeSantis…I brought up Trump/DeSantis v Biden because one of the arguments early on was polling saying that DeSantis would defeat Biden but Trump wouldn't…that narrative has changed over past couple of months, using the same polling that was arguing the opposite previously…

I will be a Trump supporter in the general, but assuming he's still viable at the time of the Texas primary, I intend to cast my ballot for DeSantis…I just don't think it will matter…

FireAg said:

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TRM said:

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If Iowa goes to DeSantis, the dam will break and Trump is dead in the water.

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You do understand that, historically speaking, Iowa is a poor predictor for who will be the R nominee, right?

Even if Trump wins Iowa, it means very little...

Historically, Iowa also favors the incumbent, and no, Trump is not, by definition, the "incumbent" in this case, but he might as well be for all practical purposes...

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Oh so Trump is wasting all that money in IA because it means nothing in the grand scheme of things? Seems pretty dumb to be wasting his resources there...Must be playing 2736498357D chess there. I'm impressed

Wyoming said:

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I am with FireAg on this, and i will be voting for DeSantis in the primaries, and I expect to vote for Trump in the General.

Looking at Vegas betting odds online, DeSantis is at +700, which is around 12.5% chance and maybe a little less. Trump is around -400, which is around an 80% chance and maybe a little less of winning the Republican nomination.

So DeSantis has a chance yes, and if I had a 12% chance of winning the republican nomination, I would stay in too. But it is unlikely, and 4 out of 5 times Trump will win the nomination.

What I wouldn't do is spew vitriol over and disparage the likely republican nominee. Many on this board detest Trump, but the alternative which is an incapacitated Biden.

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As I pointed out, since FireAg LOVES polls so much, Hillary had a 3.2pt lead over Trump ON ELECTION DAY - the lead was larger on election day than it was on 10/11/2015 (today's analog).

So...I'm saying there's a chance.

Trump hasn't done ****…

The electoral paradigm has changed thanks to social media…

You don't win elections knocking on doors anymore…

FireAg said:

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TRM said:

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If Iowa goes to DeSantis, the dam will break and Trump is dead in the water.

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You do understand that, historically speaking, Iowa is a poor predictor for who will be the R nominee, right?

Even if Trump wins Iowa, it means very little...

Historically, Iowa also favors the incumbent, and no, Trump is not, by definition, the "incumbent" in this case, but he might as well be for all practical purposes...

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He's pointing out that A LOT of Trump's lead is because of the sense of inevitability that he will be the nominee. Losing in Iowa hurts that inevitability...

You can keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep at night, but the polling processes, weightings, algorithms, etc have all evolved since 2016 and 2020…it's not an apples to apples comparison…

Funny, I see no targeted Trump ads on my IG or Twitter feed, but am getting ads for DeSantis, Christie, and Burgum.

Unless you are the incumbent running for your second term as an R, Iowa has been piss poor at predicting the R nominee historically…that's both fact and truth…

FireAg said:

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Trump hasn't done ****…

The electoral paradigm has changed thanks to social media…

You don't win elections knocking on doors anymore…

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I'm glad you admit Trump hasn't done *****

Because THAT is a fact.

FireAg said:

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This thread is about Trump v DeSantis…I brought up Trump/DeSantis v Biden because one of the arguments early on was polling saying that DeSantis would defeat Biden but Trump wouldn't…that narrative has changed over past couple of months, using the same polling that was arguing the opposite previously…

I will be a Trump supporter in the general, but assuming he's still viable at the time of the Texas primary, I intend to cast my ballot for DeSantis…I just don't think it will matter…

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We believe you.

We really do...

TRM said:

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Funny, I see no targeted Trump ads on my IG or Twitter feed, but am getting ads for DeSantis, Christie, and Burgum.

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That is because you likely follow a ton of pro-DeSantis and anti Trump accounts. So you are being algorithmithed into receiving only ads for those candidates. How do you not know how targeted advertisement works in 2023?

FireAg said:

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Unless you are the incumbent running for your second term as an R, Iowa has been piss poor at predicting the R nominee historically…that's both fact and truth…

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In this race, Trump is the de facto incumbent...

He doesn't have to, and the polling data shows you why…

FireAg said:

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Who exactly is telling you that you aren't Republican?

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Ummm… Trump?

On my phone, so forgive me for just quoting various articles and statements…
"RINO former Attorney General Bill Barr…" June 2021
"…spineless RINOs like Bill Barr and Mitch McConnell…" June 2021
"You're a RINO" Trump to El Paso Mayor Dee Margo in August 2019
"She will do a far better job than RINO Governor Doug Ducey" September 2021
"…truly horrendous RINO who has betrayed the people of Georgia…" March 2022
"An atrocious RINO" of Tom Rice in March 2022

Not to mention his legion of sycophants on social media who would load a magazine and hand it to a Democrat if they promised to aim at a conservative who wasn't MAGA.

Correct, and he will likely win Iowa in January, but this is such an unusual situation given he isn't technically the incumbent that it's hard to say for sure what it means if he wins it…

May I suggest simply turning a deaf ear to the noise? You seem very concerned about what others think…you do you…

texagbeliever said:

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TRM said:

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Funny, I see no targeted Trump ads on my IG or Twitter feed, but am getting ads for DeSantis, Christie, and Burgum.

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That is because you likely follow a ton of pro-DeSantis and anti Trump accounts. So you are being algorithmithed into receiving only ads for those candidates. How do you not know how targeted advertisement works in 2023?

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A lot of validity in that take…

I don't follow anything political one way or the other on social media, and I don't use X or IG…

I get zero political advertising on my FB feed…

FireAg said:

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Correct, and he will likely win Iowa in January, but this is such an unusual situation given he isn't technically the incumbent that it's hard to say for sure what it means if he wins it…

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This crew likes to take little data points and claim they can predict the future perfectly. They would really benefit from reading "The Undoing Project". It covers quite nicely the fallacy of humans to strive for certainty (take on determinism as a core belief) in a probabilistic world.

texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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Wyoming said:

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I am with FireAg on this, and i will be voting for DeSantis in the primaries, and I expect to vote for Trump in the General.

Looking at Vegas betting odds online, DeSantis is at +700, which is around 12.5% chance and maybe a little less. Trump is around -400, which is around an 80% chance and maybe a little less of winning the Republican nomination.

So DeSantis has a chance yes, and if I had a 12% chance of winning the republican nomination, I would stay in too. But it is unlikely, and 4 out of 5 times Trump will win the nomination.

What I wouldn't do is spew vitriol over and disparage the likely republican nominee. Many on this board detest Trump, but the alternative which is an incapacitated Biden.

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If the Republican party embraces Trump, then it has embraced the Democrat party platform of the mid to late 90's. I didn't vote for it then, and I sure as hell am not voting for it now, because it is still the same problem it was then. I need more than "not Joe Biden" to justify voting for someone, because that isn't what the ballot is.

Look on your ballot when it's time to vote. It's doesn't have a "Not Joe Biden" slot. You are voting FOR someone. You can justify it in your mind if you need to, but I can't. Trump is part of the problem and him not running as a Dem doesn't make that go away.

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Ah the elitism that allows you to not vote for the least bad option because you have a nice house in a nice neighborhood that is largely insulated from all the problems. Congrats to you. You are hugely selfish and have a huge ego (ironic because this is your big gripe with Trump). The fact you have said this same thing now 5+ times on Texags goes to show you want EVERYONE to know how righteous you are.

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Pointing out trumpism is a cancer to the party and the cause of the GOP's underperformance in the last three elections is not elitism, it's common sense. Once he loses to Biden again and likely also causes the dems to take both the house and senate hopefully people will finally see this and we can all move on.

Lol.

I take comfort in the fact that I can't lose. Either I keep my governor for two more years while the rest of the country is led by a geriatric quasi moderate Democrat, or we'll have a younger conservative President for four to eight years.