BigRobSA said:

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FireAg said:

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It is a FACT that the polling published and used in the RCP and 538 averages say that Trump is expanding his lead over Ron DeSantis nationally…. You cannot dispute that those two sites are reporting that data…

Now, you are more than welcome to decide whether or not the polls are actually TRUE, but I don't know how you prove or disprove the "truth" as to what the electorate is actually going to do without having the election itself…

The facts I am referring to means that those averages are, in fact, the averages of the polls they are using for their statistical analysis…

Are the polls they are using a true representation of what will happen? There's simply no way to know either way without going to the polls on Election Day…

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Polls are the fodder of morons. Not fact.

HTH

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Polls are all the Trumpers quote. Never a thing about policy, ideas, or the fact that Trump is always attacking from the left.

This crap gets old. IF this is what influences people we are indeed broken.

If you want to discuss how this election cycle is ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT CURRENTLY, what else would you suggest folks take a look at?

I'm not discussing the pro/con of this policy or that…I've made it clear who I prefer, and it's different from how this is playing out…

If you have a better way to gain insight into the electorate's current mood, then by all means, please share it…

We can talk about all of the great things DeSantis brings to the table, but if he can't get elected, it simply doesn't matter…

FireAg said:

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If you want to discuss how this election cycle is ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT CURRENTLY, what else would you suggest folks take a look at?

I'm not discussing the pro/con of this policy or that…I've made it clear who I prefer, and it's different from how this is playing out…

If you have a better way to gain insight into the electorate's current mood, then by all means, please share it…

We can talk about all of the great things DeSantis brings to the table, but if he can't get elected, it simply doesn't matter…

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I think the point is that you can't or certainly you can overemphasize polls at this point. Your premise is flawed because you want a data point that will give an accurate picture of the race in a scientific way and that just isn't how it works.

The other data points have been discussed many times but you put little to no value in them. Money, appearances, debates, ground game, etc. Polls are also certainly relevant. It's just you put ALL the value in them which is especially flawed in a state by state primary when most of the polls you are looking at are national.

If Trump wins Iowa big it's likely over unless he does something catastrophic. He may do either. He may also lose Iowa. We just don't know.

I think the frustration comes in because it's all polls all the time with you and it is as though you want to wait for that moment to go "See! Trump won!" He may well win but it won't be because he was up big in polls months before the votes happen. It will be because as people finally got to the point where they voted they decided he was their guy. Or not.

You can point to history and it's a valid point. The problem is there are so many polls now, the accuracy is worse than ever, and this is a changing environment. How campaigns went down 8 or 20 or 40 years ago may be relevant or it may not, we've not had an election like this in our lifetimes with so many bizarre dynamics, nothing about it is normal. So we will just have to see. It just don't get your obsession about "DeSantis must turn this around and do it fast!" and stating it as fact. It's a decent guess but it is far from a fact.

I put little stock into those things because they ain't moving the needle, my friend…at least not to date…

FireAg said:

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If you want to discuss how this election cycle is ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT CURRENTLY, what else would you suggest folks take a look at?

I'm not discussing the pro/con of this policy or that…I've made it clear who I prefer, and it's different from how this is playing out…

If you have a better way to gain insight into the electorate's current mood, then by all means, please share it…

We can talk about all of the great things DeSantis brings to the table, but if he can't get elected, it simply doesn't matter…

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So why talk about Trump, either?

Well in the RCP average, he leads Biden…

FireAg said:

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I put little stock into those things because they ain't moving the needle, my friend…at least not to date…

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That's because you're using a "needle" that is inherently flawed. No one knows if they are accurate or not yet you constantly tout them like they are gospel.

FireAg said:

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I put little stock into those things because they ain't moving the needle, my friend…at least not to date…

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Right, based on.. polls

If Obama would have looked at the polls this time in 2007, we would have had Killary as President.

100% correct.

DeSantis on the pro-Hamas protest in New York City:

"If you don't like this country, you should not be in this country…I don’t know why we would want you in this country to begin with.” pic.twitter.com/TWBPrrkrOf

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) October 10, 2023

There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

FireAg said:

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Well in the RCP average, he leads Biden…

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Not in the states that matter he doesn't. Trump could win every Republican state with 100% of the vote and he'd still lose the general to any Democrat.

Your obsession with national polls is really sad because they mean zero, zip, nada, nothing.

FireAg said:

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Well in the RCP average, he leads Biden…

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When it's within the margin of error, that is not a fact...

FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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STAT 101 says you CANNOT KNOW who is leading if the lead is within the margin of error.

hth

BTW, on Oct 11, 2015, Hillary had a 3 pt lead over Trump. Hell, she had a 3.2 pt lead over Trump ON ELECTION DAY...

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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This is the giveaway that his "I'm just being neutral and concerned DeSantis isn't winning the media battle against a lifelong celebrity attention *****" stuff is bs. He's echoing the same desperate message as the always trumpers who want DeSantis to drop out, just doing it with a lot more ellipses…

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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The hope is to get everyone to think it's over so they don't go vote and make the prophesy self fulfilling...

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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This is the giveaway that his "I'm just being neutral and concerned DeSantis isn't winning the media battle against a lifelong celebrity attention *****" stuff is bs. He's echoing the same desperate message as the always trumpers who want DeSantis to drop out, just doing it with a lot more ellipses…

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FWIW, I was using ellipses before he was...

While living in Iowa, for a decade, I was polled often. From both sides. You could tell, in about two questions, what side it was since the names were often ambiguous, at best.

Polls are ALMOST as scientific as licking your finger and sticking it in the air, to see if it's raining.

Almost.

Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Well in the RCP average, he leads Biden…

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When it's within the margin of error, that is not a fact...

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Actually...it is a fact that polling shows that both a head-to-head with Trump or DeSantis versus Biden is within the margin of error...

What is also a fact is that Trump vs. DeSantis is currently a blowout right now, and not within the margin of error...and we are 3 months out from Iowa, and Trump is steadily pulling away...

DeSantis's only shot at being the R nominee next November is if Trump isn't on the ticket, by hook or by crook...

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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I'm not trying to convince anyone...

The data speaks for itself...as long as Trump remains viable, DeSantis will not be the R nominee in 2024...

This isn't opinion...the gap is too big to overcome using conventional tactics...

FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

---

It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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I'm not trying to convince anyone...

The data speaks for itself...as long as Trump remains viable, DeSantis will not be the R nominee in 2024...

This isn't opinion...the gap is too big to overcome using conventional tactics...

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You aren't trying to convince anyone yet you are saying it is hopeless and the lead can't be overcome because of polling. Polls are the only justification and no other data matters.

Look, it's fine to have an opinion and I think polls have validity. It's just polls change and are often wrong. It's also absolutely true that one of the biggest arguments for Trump is inevitability and people just wanting to vote for the winner. That's why a lot of the polls are being used as a tactic now and why it is all Trump and his team talks about. At some point hopefully he will actually have to debate or make his case. Maybe he won't though and we can just close our eyes to all of his fatal flaws. As for me I am going to fight it until DeSantis either wins or is eliminated because he is by far the best chance to beat any Democrat.

Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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STAT 101 says you CANNOT KNOW who is leading if the lead is within the margin of error.

hth

BTW, on Oct 11, 2015, Hillary had a 3 pt lead over Trump. Hell, she had a 3.2 pt lead over Trump ON ELECTION DAY...

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Cool...here's the thing...Trump v DeSantis isn't even remotely close to being within the margin of error for the R nomination...

The Iowa Caucus is 3 months from tomorrow, and DeSantis is steadily losing ground based on polling averages...

The current gap in Iowa is 31.3 points...the current gap nationally is 44.8 points...the current gap in NH is 34.9...the current gap in SC is 34.7...the current gap in GA is 42...the current gap in AZ is 34...the current gap in Nevada is 52...the current gap in FL is 35.4...

Incidentally, I know why DeSantis is shifting a lot of focus toward NH...polling shows he's running 3.4 points behind Haley there...

As long as Trump remains viable, the race is for 2nd place...

Ag with kids said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

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It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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The hope is to get everyone to think it's over so they don't go vote and make the prophesy self fulfilling...

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Yes because posting on TexAgs about polling averages is going to convince 80M Americans how to cast their vote... You got me... I'm spewing pro-Trump propaganda all over a single internet chat forum in my noble crusade to tamp down Ron DeSantis's ability to ascend the Republican Party throne...

Nailed it...

BigRobSA said:

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While living in Iowa, for a decade, I was polled often. From both sides. You could tell, in about two questions, what side it was since the names were often ambiguous, at best.

Polls are ALMOST as scientific as licking your finger and sticking it in the air, to see if it's raining.

Almost.

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Ignoring it would be foolish, and I can guarantee you that the DeSantis camp is absolutely NOT ignoring the trends they see...

But since you spent a decade in Iowa, you're clearly a defacto expert so, you win...DeSantis is going to blow Trump out of the water...clearly...anyone who says otherwise is FOS because...well they didn't live in Iowa for a decade...

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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There's no better metric available, and it's poll averages, which helps eliminate the biases of any one, single poll…

It's STAT 101…

---

It is a good metric, I don't know how many times you need me to say that. It's just not in the case of national polls is it a terribly relevant metric.

The thing is though the things that should be happening if the polls were accurate aren't happening. DeSantis appears to be getting stronger on the ground. He's doing better and better in interviews and debates. He's continuing to raise tons of money. That shouldn't be happening if Trump is really up as far as those polls claim.

The polls could well be right though and maybe nothing changes in the next 4 months. It could happen. Or not. We will see.

I just don't get the obsession with trying to convince everyone that this race is hopeless and over. If that's the case it will happen in a few months. In the meantime we can still hope people wake up and don't decide to nominate a guy that will lose Goldwater style.

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I'm not trying to convince anyone...

The data speaks for itself...as long as Trump remains viable, DeSantis will not be the R nominee in 2024...

This isn't opinion...the gap is too big to overcome using conventional tactics...

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You aren't trying to convince anyone yet you are saying it is hopeless and the lead can't be overcome because of polling. Polls are the only justification and no other data matters.

Look, it's fine to have an opinion and I think polls have validity. It's just polls change and are often wrong. It's also absolutely true that one of the biggest arguments for Trump is inevitability and people just wanting to vote for the winner. That's why a lot of the polls are being used as a tactic now and why it is all Trump and his team talks about. At some point hopefully he will actually have to debate or make his case. Maybe he won't though and we can just close our eyes to all of his fatal flaws. As for me I am going to fight it until DeSantis either wins or is eliminated because he is by far the best chance to beat any Democrat.

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No, I am saying it is hopeless through conventional tactics...there is a path for DeSantis...but the numbers scream "not if things remain status quo"...

Some of y'all with your blinders on continue to miss that very obvious nuance...

FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Well in the RCP average, he leads Biden…

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When it's within the margin of error, that is not a fact...

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Actually...it is a fact that polling shows that both a head-to-head with Trump or DeSantis versus Biden is within the margin of error...

What is also a fact is that Trump vs. DeSantis is currently a blowout right now, and not within the margin of error...and we are 3 months out from Iowa, and Trump is steadily pulling away...

DeSantis's only shot at being the R nominee next November is if Trump isn't on the ticket, by hook or by crook...

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No matter how many times you repeat this opinion it still won't be a fact. All it does it further highlight that you are lying about being "neutral."

If only Johnny would have listened to the polls in 2012 and not played that game in Tuscaloosa.

TRM said:

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If only Johnny would have listened to the polls in 2012 and not played that game in Tuscaloosa.

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Well he scrambled and fumbled with the whole Twitter announcement debacle...now he just needs a wide open Swope in the end zone...

So I guess there's a chance...

Bottom line...DeSantis's approach to this primary cycle used old paradigm tactics...and it was the wrong approach...the paradigm shifted tremendously, and they failed to get the memo...

In the same vein, polling is using the same paradigm. This is a completely different era and the polling is done based on previous eras. This cycle is likely to be unlike any other, but the polling is done like its 2016

Yes, it's sad that his crowd sizes are increasing. Yes, it's sad that Trump has to shift resources to defend Iowa where he's leading by a billion points. Yes, he must shift the paradigm.

Phatbob said:

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In the same vein, polling is using the same paradigm. This is a completely different era and the polling is done based on previous eras. This cycle is likely to be unlike any other, but the polling is done like its 2016

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That's where you are wrong...

Polling approaches were revamped after 2016...and they were tweaked again after the 2020 midterms...

Are they infallible? Absolutely not, and that's why I prefer to look at the trends based on the averages of several polls put together...

I can appreciate the consternation over polling and its limitations, but there is no other universal tool available to give someone at least a glimpse of what is going on...

If polling is tight, yeah, I would approach that with a lot more skepticism...MOE is a real thing...

But when there is a substantially large gap (20-30+ points) between two candidates, that polling is likely not going to be wildly inaccurate...

TRM said:

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Yes, it's sad that his crowd sizes are increasing. Yes, it's sad that Trump has to shift resources to defend Iowa where he's leading by a billion points. Yes, he must shift the paradigm.

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Do you truly believe that, despite all of the data showing DeSantis way behind, that he is going to win the nomination in a head-to-head battle with Trump if Trump remains a viable candidate?

Seriously...do you truly believe that?

I'm not saying DS is leading in the polls or anything like that, I just think the polls are likely to be extremely unreliable, so this is the time to look at them the least, not use them as if they are the best data we have.