He doesn't want to pay for it. The rally he did in South Dakota was a South Dakota Republican Party event, so he didn't have to cover the major costs.

Seeing more and more polls coming out with general election head-to-head match ups, and there is a definite trend now favoring Trump...

Premise Polling sucks. You have to download an app to take the survey. I would never let them have access to data on my phone.

when is the next reporting date to see how much cash each candidate has on hand for the campaign in the fall?

one thing that is going to help DeSantis is the failure of the Tim Scott campaign- seeing as how he was being financed by just a few big dollar donors. they may pull the plug sooner rather than later.

the faster we can whittle down this field the better.

9/30 is EOQ. Reporting will be out around 10/15.

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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Seeing more and more polls coming out with general election head-to-head match ups, and there is a definite trend now favoring Trump...

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Anyone that actually thinks Trump has a better chance of beating Biden needs their head examined or is simply delusional. Notice all the polls are around 40% on either side and most are from garbage pollsters. It's that 15-20% that makes the difference and they are conveniently leaving them off. There are also a number of Trump folks saying they won't vote DeSantis right now that will absolutely come around.

If it is Biden v Trump it's about Trump. If it's Biden v DeSantis it's about Biden. Whomever it is about loses.

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RCP is picking up the same stuff recently...Trumps is making inroads and DeSantis isn't...

Trump will be the candidate. If the Democrats put him in jail, he will overcome voter harvesting.

I'll say it once again…

Any single poll is fairly worthless…

What I'm watching are trends…

Not sure trunp vs biden is a for sure win for Biden. Folks can compare their lives w/ biden directly to their life with Trump, where trump is more favorable. Desantis is an unknown. of course, i'd also rather not have two old dudes to choose from. Which is where i think an edge for Vivek arises. He's a young outsider. He's also an unknown but his being an outsider may play out favorably for him.

Inb4 a desantite says this is a troll post.

"In the battleground states, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump, 47-43, compared with a 46-44 lead among all registered voters nationwide. OTOH, Mr. Biden leads by 17 points, 50-33 ... in California and New York." https://t.co/rtdg9eKj6U

— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) September 11, 2023

FireAg said:

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I'll say it once again…

Any single poll is fairly worthless…

What I'm watching are trends…

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Completely understand. You love polls.

The patterns in recent polling and election results are consistent with the trends in national surveys, which suggest that the demographic foundations of Mr. Trump's Electoral College advantage might be fading.

Midterm results typically don't tell us much about the next general election. Polls taken 15 to 27 months out don't necessarily augur much, either. But the possibility that Republicans' Electoral College advantage is diminished is nonetheless worth taking seriously.

It appears driven by forces that might persist until the next election, like Mr. Biden's weakness among nonwhite voters and the growing importance of issues abortion, crime, democracy and education that play differently for blue and purple state voters.

Of course, there is more than a year to go. Mr. Biden may regain traction among nonwhite voters or lose ground among white voters, which could reestablish Mr. Trump's Electoral College edge. Perhaps his Electoral College edge could grow even larger than it was in 2020, as some Democrats warned after that election.

But at this point, another large Trump Electoral College advantage cannot be assumed. At the very least, tied national polls today don't mean Mr. Trump leads in the states likeliest to decide the presidency.

Another Trumper Trope fails

TRM said:

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"In the battleground states, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump, 47-43, compared with a 46-44 lead among all registered voters nationwide. OTOH, Mr. Biden leads by 17 points, 50-33 ... in California and New York." https://t.co/rtdg9eKj6U

— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) September 11, 2023

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LOL so what you are saying is that Biden is STILL beating Trump once again.

but we obviously have to wait for our poll "experts" to weigh in

before us commoners can understand the significance of a FOUR POINT BIDEN LEAD in battleground states.

In the primary, trump is still around 50 in Iowa. It's mid-September. If this is gonna change in the early states (IA and NH) it will need to happen in the next 60-90 days.

No small coincidence Jack smith is timing the trial around Jan 2 for some of his multitude of indictments anyway to make sure Trump is the nominee.

That Biden is polling anywhere close to any GOP possible nominee in battleground states is an absolute indictment of the GOP's ability to message/compete/prospects, imho.

I think you misunderstand the point…

I think a 4-point Biden lead over Trump in a swing state poll is noteworthy (though I would want to see the average of polling on that subject rather than a single data point), but what scares the hell out of me is DeSantis polling the the same or worse in that same swing state poll when matched against Biden…

I'm not saying Trump doesn't face an uphill battle in swing states…my concern is that DeSantis's path to victory vs Biden is even steeper than Trump's…

nortex97 said:

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In the primary, trump is still around 50 in Iowa. It's mid-September. If this is gonna change in the early states (IA and NH) it will need to happen in the next 60-90 days.

No small coincidence Jack smith is timing the trial around Jan 2 for some of his multitude of indictments anyway to make sure Trump is the nominee.

That Biden is polling anywhere close to any GOP possible nominee in battleground states is an absolute indictment of the GOP's ability to message/compete/prospects, imho.

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Absolutely agree with your point here…that any GOP candidate (including DeSantis) struggles against a Biden match up is an absolute indictment of the GOP, as well as our (un)American society…

AggieVictor10 said:

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Not sure trunp vs biden is a for sure win for Biden. Folks can compare their lives w/ biden directly to their life with Trump, where trump is more favorable. Desantis is an unknown. of course, i'd also rather not have two old dudes to choose from. Which is where i think an edge for Vivek arises. He's a young outsider. He's also an unknown but his being an outsider may play out favorably for him.

Inb4 a desantite says this is a troll post.

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may not be a troll, but you are thread derailing as the Vivek guys tend to do.

START YOUR OWN THREAD if you want to talk about Ramascamy.

FireAg said:

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I think you misunderstand the point…

I think a 4-point Biden lead over Trump in a swing state poll is noteworthy (though I would want to see the average of polling on that subject rather than a single data point), but what scares the hell out of me is DeSantis polling the the same or worse in that same swing state poll when matched against Biden…

I'm not saying Trump doesn't face an uphill battle in swing states…my concern is that DeSantis's path to victory vs Biden is even steeper than Trump's…

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The HUGE difference is there is a large undecided vote with Biden v DeSantis and that is almost certain to favor DeSantis. Heavily. Those are people who don't know or like either that much so they vote for whomever they dislike the least. I don't know any way that works out for Biden.

I still don't see Biden as the nominee for the Dems though I think there is a significant chance he is either dead or completely unable to function to the point they can't even prop him up by this time next year. If the Dems run anyone else against Trump it's a referendum on Trump and he will be lucky not to lose by double digits.

nortex97 said:

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In the primary, trump is still around 50 in Iowa. It's mid-September. If this is gonna change in the early states (IA and NH) it will need to happen in the next 60-90 days.

No small coincidence Jack smith is timing the trial around Jan 2 for some of his multitude of indictments anyway to make sure Trump is the nominee.

That Biden is polling anywhere close to any GOP possible nominee in battleground states is an absolute indictment of the GOP's ability to message/compete/prospects, imho.

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Actually swings in Iowa don't usually happen until December and they often swing drastically.

Good to hear, thx.

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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I think you misunderstand the point…

I think a 4-point Biden lead over Trump in a swing state poll is noteworthy (though I would want to see the average of polling on that subject rather than a single data point), but what scares the hell out of me is DeSantis polling the the same or worse in that same swing state poll when matched against Biden…

I'm not saying Trump doesn't face an uphill battle in swing states…my concern is that DeSantis's path to victory vs Biden is even steeper than Trump's…

---

The HUGE difference is there is a large undecided vote with Biden v DeSantis and that is almost certain to favor DeSantis. Heavily. Those are people who don't know or like either that much so they vote for whomever they dislike the least. I don't know any way that works out for Biden.

I still don't see Biden as the nominee for the Dems though I think there is a significant chance he is either dead or completely unable to function to the point they can't even prop him up by this time next year. If the Dems run anyone else against Trump it's a referendum on Trump and he will be lucky not to lose by double digits.

---

I could actually see as scenario where the D's in the Senate vote to impeach Biden just to get him out of the way before next summer...

The House and Senate would have to move pretty fast, but I honestly see no scenario where D's actually want Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024...

I truly wish McCarthy would ****can the impeachment stuff...I fear it only helps the D's...get rid of Biden and then hand pick his successor...

The true puppet masters running the Dem show haven't intended for Biden to be the nominee since he won in 2020. We can act like this is some new turn of events but the only real question has been how it would happen. His health was always at the top of that list, I'm just not sure they envisioned him getting this bad this far out from the primaries. But it does play right into their hands. They won't even have to convince him not to run, he'll be so out of it soon he won't know who he is and Jill won't be able to continue propping him up.

It's obvious that the dementia meds they've been pumping into him are becoming less and less effective…

In part one of a one-on-one interview, @NorahODonnell sat down with GOP presidential candidate @GovRonDeSantis (R-FL) about his foreign policy regarding the war in Ukraine, China and the southern border. https://t.co/sL6lMmr90k pic.twitter.com/3LRXABBmEC

— CBS Evening News (@CBSEveningNews) September 12, 2023

Trump rarely visits Iowa, and his campaign there is in shambles.

Trump's message to Iowans? A middle finger. pic.twitter.com/hQ2O0Gq8FT

— Never Back Down (@NvrBackDown24) September 12, 2023

FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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I think you misunderstand the point…

I think a 4-point Biden lead over Trump in a swing state poll is noteworthy (though I would want to see the average of polling on that subject rather than a single data point), but what scares the hell out of me is DeSantis polling the the same or worse in that same swing state poll when matched against Biden…

I'm not saying Trump doesn't face an uphill battle in swing states…my concern is that DeSantis's path to victory vs Biden is even steeper than Trump's…

---

The HUGE difference is there is a large undecided vote with Biden v DeSantis and that is almost certain to favor DeSantis. Heavily. Those are people who don't know or like either that much so they vote for whomever they dislike the least. I don't know any way that works out for Biden.

I still don't see Biden as the nominee for the Dems though I think there is a significant chance he is either dead or completely unable to function to the point they can't even prop him up by this time next year. If the Dems run anyone else against Trump it's a referendum on Trump and he will be lucky not to lose by double digits.

---

I could actually see as scenario where the D's in the Senate vote to impeach Biden just to get him out of the way before next summer...

The House and Senate would have to move pretty fast, but I honestly see no scenario where D's actually want Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024...

I truly wish McCarthy would ****can the impeachment stuff...I fear it only helps the D's...get rid of Biden and then hand pick his successor...

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They will just have Biden step down for health reasons, they have it set up so they could do it at any time. I don't thin the Impeachment matters either way, it's a waste of time but nothing is happening anyway until the election.

TRM said:

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Trump rarely visits Iowa, and his campaign there is in shambles.

Trump's message to Iowans? A middle finger. pic.twitter.com/hQ2O0Gq8FT

— Never Back Down (@NvrBackDown24) September 12, 2023

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Did I call it, or did I call it.

Trump really is the gift that keeps on giving.

"Elon Musk has "deep disdain" for Donald Trump, who he believes is a "con man" and "the world's champion of bull****," according to a sprawling new biography from Walter Isaacson.

The hotly-anticipated book from the famed biographer of Steve Jobs examines the life and career of Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur whose ventures include Tesla, SpaceX, and now X, formerly known as Twitter. Isaacson, who spent two years interviewing and shadowing Musk, delved into his complex views on U.S. politics which his biographer describes as hatred for Trump but also increasing hostility towards the left.

Musk's turn to the right has manifested publicly in an open embrace of far-right accounts on X. But despite his MAGA bedfellows, Musk has long held disdain for Trump.

In December 2016, Musk had a private meeting with Trump, during which he was "baffled" by the then-president-elect's comments about Tesla and NASA.

"He seems kind of nuts," Musk said after the meeting, according to Isaacson, "but he may turn out okay."

On the contrary: Musk "concluded that Trump as president was no different than he was as a candidate," Isaacson wrote. "The buffoonery was not just an act."

How Many Cabinet Members, Republicans and Successful People have to tell you Trump sucks

Just like any R that doesn't bow the knee, Musk must be deep state.

LMCane said:

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"Elon Musk has "deep disdain" for Donald Trump, who he believes is a "con man" and "the world's champion of bull****," according to a sprawling new biography from Walter Isaacson.

The hotly-anticipated book from the famed biographer of Steve Jobs examines the life and career of Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur whose ventures include Tesla, SpaceX, and now X, formerly known as Twitter. Isaacson, who spent two years interviewing and shadowing Musk, delved into his complex views on U.S. politics which his biographer describes as hatred for Trump but also increasing hostility towards the left.

Musk's turn to the right has manifested publicly in an open embrace of far-right accounts on X. But despite his MAGA bedfellows, Musk has long held disdain for Trump.

In December 2016, Musk had a private meeting with Trump, during which he was "baffled" by the then-president-elect's comments about Tesla and NASA.

"He seems kind of nuts," Musk said after the meeting, according to Isaacson, "but he may turn out okay."

On the contrary: Musk "concluded that Trump as president was no different than he was as a candidate," Isaacson wrote. "The buffoonery was not just an act."

How Many Cabinet Members, Republicans and Successful People have to tell you Trump sucks

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So, it's obvious Musk has turned to the right because he now allows far right accounts? As opposed to when it was JUST far left accounts?

That's piss poor analysis.

nortex97 said:

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In the primary, trump is still around 50 in Iowa. It's mid-September. If this is gonna change in the early states (IA and NH) it will need to happen in the next 60-90 days.

No small coincidence Jack smith is timing the trial around Jan 2 for some of his multitude of indictments anyway to make sure Trump is the nominee.

That Biden is polling anywhere close to any GOP possible nominee in battleground states is an absolute indictment of the GOP's ability to message/compete/prospects, imho.

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interesting you typed that-

any incumbent under 50 is in trouble- that has literally been the guiding and accepted fact of political campaigns for decades.

lnteresting that the Trumpers will be ignoring the poll which dropped yesterday showing Trump support in Iowa is plunging..

Trump support in Iowa drops to 49 from 62 in the previous poll.

so the guy running for President a THIRD time, who is one of the most famous men in the world, is supported by less than half of HIS OWN PARTY much less the general population.


Trump Support Declining In Iowa