FL_Ag1998 said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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An Iowa win would make DeSantis relevant...no argument there...but would it be "game changing"? I mean, history says, "probably not"...

But it would at least solidify him as a potential threat to Trump...

But frankly, I think a win in South Carolina on Feb 3, followed by a win in Michigan on Feb 27 would be far more "game changing"...

If he has success there, then I look to Georgia's results on Mar 12 to be a real indication of whether or not Trump could remain viable, again assuming a DeSantis win in SoCar and Mich...

All things being equal, I think South Carolina has a high potential to foreshadow the fates of each campaign...

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I don't see SC as a game changer because you might have Haley and Scott still in the race. Trump should win anyway because it is a state that sets up for him well with a heavy rural, non college educated vote.

Iowa really just determines if there is a real race at all. If Trump crushes DeSantis in Iowa it's probably over. I don't see how DeSantis could recover from that barring something happening to Trump like a heart attack. If DeSantis wins it makes it into a longer race of attrition and that's better for DeSantis. Who really knows though, it's a very unusual cycle and I am expecting the unexpected.

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Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like Trump has put the most effort into S.C. so far. I think he's either

1) assuming very close losses or very close wins in IA and NH but planning on a big victory in SC to revitalize his campaign and be the turning point for him to take over, or

2) he's totally taking wins in IA and NH for granted and assuming a big victory in SC will put the nails in any remaining competitors coffins.

But SC should absolutely not be considered a do or die or game changer for Desantis unless he's just absolutely stunk it up in IA and NH. In SC you'll have Trump's efforts to date (see above), plus potentially Haley and Scott pulling votes. So SC on paper seems to be the biggest uphill battle for Desantis, IMO, and labeling that as the key to his campaign is almost intentionally setting him up for failure.

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Between likely splitting the non Trump vote with Haley and Scott and the amount of non-educated voters in SC I wouldn't be surprised if the DeSantis campaign internally has already chalked it up as a loss. Either way without Scott or Haley dropping I have a really hard time seeing him winning there.

Full disclosure…in my opinion (and that is based primarily on those polls everyone hates me bringing up), I think he is behind in both IA and NH, and best case, he manages a split there…

I also fully admit I think it's more likely he loses both than gets the split, but if he does get that split, it will be from a close win in IA…

He's gonna go ballistic when he finds out someone neglected to super glue his comb over down better. lmao

FireAg said:

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Full disclosure…in my opinion (and that is based primarily on those polls everyone hates me bringing up), I think he is behind in both IA and NH, and best case, he manages a split there…

I also fully admit I think it's more likely he loses both than gets the split, but if he does get that split, it will be from a close win in IA…

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I really don't know at this point what the real picture is in IA nor NH. Polls say Trump up big. However, news stories from both states paint people as grateful for what Trump did in the past and almost all believe the indictments are b.s. but those same people also say they are tired of the drama and are likely to vote for another candidate. Of course both polls and news stories are almost inherently biased by the person conducting them.

And then you have the growing number of endorsements going Desantis' way. But endorsements might not mean anything either.

I personally want to believe that once they have their ballot in their hand, most people will decide that we have to move on past Trump and end up voting for the next best thing. But who knows.

And my earlier comment from the previous page was more of a shocked statement that you seem to have doubts about Desantis' willingness to withstand the heat. He's been catching National News and Political level heat from the MSM and Dems for the past three years. IMO, he's past the stage of questioning whether he has the balls to fight D.C. Not only can he stand the heat in the kitchen but that's where he prefers to be.

I do believe there is an element of people answering the polls to want to show that the indictments don't affect them, but when it comes to actually choosing the person, they're voting for someone else. I don't know how much of that there is. There is a huge amount of "screw you" going around in the Republican party, and that could play in the polls, too

Phatbob said:

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Im Gipper said:

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I feel like I have seen this movie before… https://t.co/duQK1fODuf pic.twitter.com/Ptf5dAqeDt

— AG (@AGHamilton29) August 15, 2023

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Ironically the left will use that as proof of corruption to threaten political opponents. Though we know it's bluster on Trump's part.

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This. The 100% embodiment of trump as leader (not EO signer). Somehow manage a way to give both dudes a resin to dislike you over a false promise. Masterful work.

And yes, I will still vote for trump if he's the nominee.

FireAg said:

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Full disclosure…in my opinion (and that is based primarily on those polls everyone hates me bringing up), I think he is behind in both IA and NH, and best case, he manages a split there…

I also fully admit I think it's more likely he loses both than gets the split, but if he does get that split, it will be from a close win in IA…

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No idea how things turn out and I think it's accurate to say Trump likely leads by a good bit in both states right now. It will come down to whether or not things shift in December/January. Easy to argue either side but no one knows.

DESANTIS: “We need a major, major overhaul” of the FBI and DOJ.

“These agencies have become basically little playthings for the political left to wield against their opponents…” pic.twitter.com/8vvMSYqzin

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 15, 2023

aggie93 said:

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DESANTIS: “We need a major, major overhaul” of the FBI and DOJ.

“These agencies have become basically little playthings for the political left to wield against their opponents…” pic.twitter.com/8vvMSYqzin

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 15, 2023

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I like that Trump, Desantis, and Vivek all say the DOJ and FBI are due for major housecleaning efforts if not just straight up shuttering. However, Trump has proven to be nothing but bluster on promises like this. And while I do think Vivek would have every intent of doing it, he'd end up likely getting either completely shut down or played by the Dems and those agencies themselves. I think Desantis has the follow through and balls that Trump ultimately lacks (Trump lacks them because he's too worried about being popular and liked), and the knowledge of how it actually needs to be done that Vivek lacks.

The rest of them (Haley, Scott, Christie, Pence, etc) won't do squat to those agencies.

Is anyone else getting a LOT more emails from Never Back Down lately? I basically get one every day. Polls typically. And I feel like they've correlated to the timing of the recent shakeups with Desantis and the NBD pac. I feel like I never got one prior to 1.5-2 weeks ago.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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aggie93 said:

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DESANTIS: “We need a major, major overhaul” of the FBI and DOJ.

“These agencies have become basically little playthings for the political left to wield against their opponents…” pic.twitter.com/8vvMSYqzin

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 15, 2023

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I like that Trump, Desantis, and Vivek all say the DOJ and FBI are due for major housecleaning efforts if not just straight up shuttering. However, Trump has proven to be nothing but bluster on promises like this. And while I do think Vivek would have every intent of doing it, he'd end up likely getting either completely shut down or played by the Dems and those agencies themselves. I think Desantis has the follow through and balls that Trump ultimately lacks (Trump lacks them because he's too worried about being popular and liked), and the knowledge of how it actually needs to be done that Vivek lacks.

The rest of them (Haley, Scott, Christie, Pence, etc) won't do squat to those agencies.

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I posted on the Vivek thread about how his strategy is flawed. He usually talks very high level but he mentioned how he could use the Presidential Reorganization Act of 1977 to use his Exec Authority to close these agencies down. Problem is that Act specifically states he can make a plan but he needs Congressional Approval to do anything significant which is not going to happen, at least not short term. It is going to take a complex multi tiered strategy that will have to be done carefully or else it will fail and fail badly. These folks are deeply entrenched with a lot of legal protections and it is not a snap your fingers process. Anyone that tells you so is manipulating you.

I get them daily. Maybe 2 instead of 1a day. Much more text messaging though.

In 2018, 11 House Republicans sent a letter to Trump’s DoJ requesting an investigation into Clinton because they “believe[d] that those in positions of high authority should be treated the same as every other American.”

That group was led by then Congressman DeSantis. pic.twitter.com/V7SnvyLKVB

— Jeremy Redfern (@JeremyRedfernFL) August 16, 2023

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Is anyone else getting a LOT more emails from Never Back Down lately? I basically get one every day. Polls typically. And I feel like they've correlated to the timing of the recent shakeups with Desantis and the NBD pac. I feel like I never got one prior to 1.5-2 weeks ago.

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LOL.

And you will get those from every GOP candidate from every state for the next five to ten years.

I once answered my phone in Texas asking m if I wanted to help get Tom Daschle out of office in South Dakota.

Well, "Yeah! But I don't live there. How can I donate?" Oooh, guess what, live out of ststae, out of the country, does not matter. So I donated 100 bucks for Thune. One time.

Took nearly ten years to get the SD GOP to stop calling me,

"As a leader, I'm not just talking about parents' rights, I'm not just talking about education over indoctrination. We're living it as parents." pic.twitter.com/2cVhRKN2R4

— Never Back Down (@NvrBackDown24) August 15, 2023

“DeSantis’ campaign is a family affair. Almost every time @RonDeSantis walks on stage, his wife and kids are close behind.” 🥰 pic.twitter.com/CXHZZY8Drz

— Team DeSantis (@TeamDeSantis) August 15, 2023

DeSantis: "I disagree with Donald Trump's attacks on Governor Chris Sununu. I think New Hampshire is the best governed state in New England. I think Chris has done a great job up there and you can see with the fact that people flee to New Hampshire, just like people flee to… pic.twitter.com/COdEUaufEf

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 15, 2023

"We do not care what Hillary Clinton has to say."

DeSantis Spokesman @BryanDGriffin: "The president has the power to — and should — rein in the bureaucracy when the bureaucracy is not serving the interests of the American people."

He added, "We do not care what Hillary Clinton has to say."https://t.co/PRmwy8SAwD

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 15, 2023

aggiehawg said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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Is anyone else getting a LOT more emails from Never Back Down lately? I basically get one every day. Polls typically. And I feel like they've correlated to the timing of the recent shakeups with Desantis and the NBD pac. I feel like I never got one prior to 1.5-2 weeks ago.

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LOL.

And you will get those from every GOP candidate from every state for the next five to ten years.

I once answered my phone in Texas asking m if I wanted to help get Tom Daschle out of office in South Dakota.

Well, "Yeah! But I don't live there. How can I donate?" Oooh, guess what, live out of ststae, out of the country, does not matter. So I donated 100 bucks for Thune. One time.

Took nearly ten years to get the SD GOP to stop calling me,

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Lol, yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. I'm assuming they got my name from the registered voter roll or something random I filled out. But that's why I have a "junk" email that I use for everything except family correspondence.

70% of the spam in my non-work email account had "Trump" in the title. Some from his groups, some from supporters, some from opposition. All wanting money

TRM said:

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The air of inevitability is gone and you'd see more of the middle 50% switch.

Isn't the threshold 10% for the IA caucus l? So those below 10% would need to find someone new to support in round 2. This is where DeSantis would do well.

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this is why we need Pence to drop out before the caucus so he throws his 5% to DeSantis

or has them switch in the second round to DeSantis

BMX Bandit said:

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70% of the spam in my non-work email account had "Trump" in the title. Some from his groups, some from supporters, some from opposition. All wanting money

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It's really just a grifting operation the last 3 years rather than a Presidential campaign.

and what happens if/when Trump wins the nomination with a few million in the bank?!

no one of the large donors is going to ride to his rescue.

few of the DeSantis and non-Trump supporters are going to give hard earned money to the clown.

that leaves the same group of Dead Enders to fill his coffers.

so you would be looking at a 78 year old, four time indicted Trump with about $25 million going up against A BILLION DOLLARS from the left. or he is forced to take "matching funds" which limits him to like 75 million taxpayer dollars.

yeah- that is going to work out real well for the GOP candidates across the country.

TRM said:

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"As a leader, I'm not just talking about parents' rights, I'm not just talking about education over indoctrination. We're living it as parents." pic.twitter.com/2cVhRKN2R4

— Never Back Down (@NvrBackDown24) August 15, 2023

“DeSantis’ campaign is a family affair. Almost every time @RonDeSantis walks on stage, his wife and kids are close behind.” 🥰 pic.twitter.com/CXHZZY8Drz

— Team DeSantis (@TeamDeSantis) August 15, 2023

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Our Artificial Intelligence robot overlords -

will be pondering how it was that in 2024 the Republican party committed suicide by backing Trump rather than DeSantis.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Is anyone else getting a LOT more emails from Never Back Down lately? I basically get one every day. Polls typically. And I feel like they've correlated to the timing of the recent shakeups with Desantis and the NBD pac. I feel like I never got one prior to 1.5-2 weeks ago.

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strangely I am getting nothing from Never Back Down and tons from idiot Trump fundraising texts.

Even from Burgum, Haley and Tim Scott.

then again I have been a contributor to the RNC for decades so they will always sell my info to every campaign.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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FireAg said:

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Full disclosure…in my opinion (and that is based primarily on those polls everyone hates me bringing up), I think he is behind in both IA and NH, and best case, he manages a split there…

I also fully admit I think it's more likely he loses both than gets the split, but if he does get that split, it will be from a close win in IA…

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I really don't know at this point what the real picture is in IA nor NH. Polls say Trump up big. However, news stories from both states paint people as grateful for what Trump did in the past and almost all believe the indictments are b.s. but those same people also say they are tired of the drama and are likely to vote for another candidate. Of course both polls and news stories are almost inherently biased by the person conducting them.

And then you have the growing number of endorsements going Desantis' way. But endorsements might not mean anything either.

I personally want to believe that once they have their ballot in their hand, most people will decide that we have to move on past Trump and end up voting for the next best thing. But who knows.

And my earlier comment from the previous page was more of a shocked statement that you seem to have doubts about Desantis' willingness to withstand the heat. He's been catching National News and Political level heat from the MSM and Dems for the past three years. IMO, he's past the stage of questioning whether he has the balls to fight D.C. Not only can he stand the heat in the kitchen but that's where he prefers to be.

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We still have EIGHTEEN WEEKS before getting close to the actual caucus in Iowa. Nearly 200 days! Not to mention like 5 debates.

and seeing Trump in court every week for 91 felonies.

this is still getting started, and every day DeSantis is out campaigning with real voters.

While Trump is in Bedminster or Mar A Lago yelling at the clouds- as elderly men near 80 teetering on the brink of mental issues are wont to do.

TRM said:

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"We do not care what Hillary Clinton has to say."

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He dead...

TRM said:

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Laura: They are predicting that if Trump isn't the nominee, 25-35% of Republican voters won't turn out, what say you.

DeSavage: Brian Kemp was opposed by Trump and he won in a landslide, I was attacked by Trump and I won in a landslide!

Mic Drop!!! 🖐🏽🎤 pic.twitter.com/PUb3G67gkH

— Unfiltered☢Boss (@Unfilteredboss1) August 16, 2023

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But wait...

I thought having Biden/Dems as POTUS in 2025 would usher in a dystopian world.

Why would Trump supporters stay home and allow that just because Trump wasn't the nominee?

Ag with kids said:

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TRM said:

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Laura: They are predicting that if Trump isn't the nominee, 25-35% of Republican voters won't turn out, what say you.

DeSavage: Brian Kemp was opposed by Trump and he won in a landslide, I was attacked by Trump and I won in a landslide!

Mic Drop!!! 🖐🏽🎤 pic.twitter.com/PUb3G67gkH

— Unfiltered☢Boss (@Unfilteredboss1) August 16, 2023

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But wait...

I thought having Biden/Dems as POTUS in 2025 would usher in a dystopian world.

Why would Trump supporters stay home and allow that just because Trump wasn't the nominee?

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because DeSantis is a "Republican in Name Only" and Trump is the only actual Republican? (says the Trumpers)

which means those Republicans supporting Trump are the actual Republicans in Name Only since they only support Trump.

IRONIC!!

LMCane said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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70% of the spam in my non-work email account had "Trump" in the title. Some from his groups, some from supporters, some from opposition. All wanting money

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It's really just a grifting operation the last 3 years rather than a Presidential campaign.

and what happens if/when Trump wins the nomination with a few million in the bank?!

no one of the large donors is going to ride to his rescue.

few of the DeSantis and non-Trump supporters are going to give hard earned money to the clown.

that leaves the same group of Dead Enders to fill his coffers.

so you would be looking at a 78 year old, four time indicted Trump with about $25 million going up against A BILLION DOLLARS from the left. or he is forced to take "matching funds" which limits him to like 75 million taxpayer dollars.

yeah- that is going to work out real well for the GOP candidates across the country.

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That LAST sentence is the big worry.

It's one thing if Trump loses the POTUS race. But, if that ends up dragging down the downballot races it could get ugly.

Ag with kids said:

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TRM said:

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Laura: They are predicting that if Trump isn't the nominee, 25-35% of Republican voters won't turn out, what say you.

DeSavage: Brian Kemp was opposed by Trump and he won in a landslide, I was attacked by Trump and I won in a landslide!

Mic Drop!!! 🖐🏽🎤 pic.twitter.com/PUb3G67gkH

— Unfiltered☢Boss (@Unfilteredboss1) August 16, 2023

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But wait...

I thought having Biden/Dems as POTUS in 2025 would usher in a dystopian world.

Why would Trump supporters stay home and allow that just because Trump wasn't the nominee?

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If that does happen, then they would be acting just like the Bernie Bros. when he didn't get the nomination. And we all know what happened when they stayed home.

LMCane said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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70% of the spam in my non-work email account had "Trump" in the title. Some from his groups, some from supporters, some from opposition. All wanting money

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It's really just a grifting operation the last 3 years rather than a Presidential campaign.

and what happens if/when Trump wins the nomination with a few million in the bank?!

no one of the large donors is going to ride to his rescue.

few of the DeSantis and non-Trump supporters are going to give hard earned money to the clown.

that leaves the same group of Dead Enders to fill his coffers.

so you would be looking at a 78 year old, four time indicted Trump with about $25 million going up against A BILLION DOLLARS from the left. or he is forced to take "matching funds" which limits him to like 75 million taxpayer dollars.

yeah- that is going to work out real well for the GOP candidates across the country.

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Don't worry, Trump will get all that positive coverage from free media that will propel him to victory!

It's very frustrating when you try to explain to Trump voters how the game works and how to look a few moves down the chessboard. Trump has already been checkmated but they just refuse to see it because they are focused on how he might be able to take a few pawns.

Trumpers are claiming Trump won't need to campaign. He has it already sewn up because the entire country is enraged over 2020 and the indictments. Trump will be free to spend all his time "fighting for us" by dealing with those instead of campaigning. The RNC will fund and take care of it all for Trump.

Of course, anyone who a functional brain not clouded by idolizing Trump knows it is complete BS.

Rapier108 said:

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Trumpers are claiming Trump won't need to campaign. He has it already sewn up because the entire country is enraged over 2020 and the indictments. Trump will be free to spend all his time "fighting for us" by dealing with those instead of campaigning. The RNC will fund and take care of it all for Trump.

Of course, anyone who a functional brain not clouded by idolizing Trump knows it is complete BS.

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good points.

also, Trumpers are unsophisticated about electoral politics in the United States.

it is up to the SECRETARY OF STATE of the various states to set the conditions and rules for the elections.

Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania have.... Democrat party Secretaries of State.

In their state constitutions, they can prohibit felons from running for office.

so guess what dummies?! you just nominated a guy who won't be on the ballots of three swing states.

and while there will be lawsuits over it-

Biden or Harris or Newsome will be measuring the drapes in the Oval Office and not have to even do anything to win election.

brilliant strategy dummies.