The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

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I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

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If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

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The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

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And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

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You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

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See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

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Your second paragraph leaves out the obvious: emotion. We all know emotion can blind us. People who are emotionally attached to trump are not able to see the obvious: he's not the best choice. That doesn't make them dumb/ignorant any more than someone losing their temper and breaking something is their house is dumb/ignorant. It's scientifically documented that high levels of emotion (any emotion) can lead to poor decision making. Doesn't make you stupid

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Not based on the common rhetoric used by posters.

Also a person can be dumb (make a bad choice) because of emotion. Just because they were emotionally enthralled doesn't make the logic not poor. It is splitting hairs over why they make the dumb choice but the end of the day is breaking that is still a hurdle that the champ will need to do.

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That is not the "common" rhetoric. It is the rhetoric reserved for the diehards who come and troll. The majority of the rhetoric I see is "anyone voting for trump is voting on sheer emotion". This board is littered with those types of comments.

A bad choice does not make one dumb. It's mean you did something dumb. There is a major difference and it can often effect things like a person's self esteem, so it should be highlighted

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Next time tell a woman when she is wrong she is just being emotional. Then the time after tell her she is just being dumb. Oh wait you can't because she already killed you for your first comment.

Calling someone emotional isn't being nice it is passive aggressive speak for dumb but don't realize it. So double dumb.

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My wife understands on her own when she's being emotional. She also tells other women all the time they're being emotional. I guess if I lived in a world like you described, I might feel the same way

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You do live in that world, it is called Earth. There is a reason that is a punch line in several Babylon Bee skits.

texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

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Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

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They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

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This is oversimplifying the matter. People are taking data points, as well as current tends and making a prediction. He lost in 2020 because he continuously shot himself in the foot. He has continued to shoot himself in the foot. He is turning off many key demographics and is only doubling down. Now he is insulting to republican governors that have massively improved their states.

We aren't saying "anyone who loses a race can't win again". We're saying he can't win again because he hasn't changed a single thing that hamstrung him last time. If trump came out a different man ready to set aside the antics that lost the White House, I don't think desantis would even be running

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If Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot why is he still winning by so much?! If you actually believed what you posted you would be confident DeSantis was going to win. Your posting lacks that confidence.

Also I love how people can take current trends and say Trump will lose. But people definitely can't take current trends and say DeSantis will lose to Trump. Because science!

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Because of emotion. I feel like I've spelled this out in depth already. It doesn't matter what he does, a certain amount of people are going to ride or die with him. People are now backing him up on fast tracking the vaccine or claiming he was never pro-lockdown and plenty of other nonsense because he hasn't disavowed them. His followers just change their positions. Or they ignore his stupidity, like when he called desantis out on Disney (wrong) and the heartbeat bill (wrong). They just ignore it. Not because they're stupid. They are just emotionally attached and that loyalty is hard to break.

And as far as I can see, only two posters are saying desantis has a good chance. I don't think he will win the primary. Im hopeful for a win, but completely expect him to lose because of the afore mentioned emotional attachment to trump

texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Your second paragraph leaves out the obvious: emotion. We all know emotion can blind us. People who are emotionally attached to trump are not able to see the obvious: he's not the best choice. That doesn't make them dumb/ignorant any more than someone losing their temper and breaking something is their house is dumb/ignorant. It's scientifically documented that high levels of emotion (any emotion) can lead to poor decision making. Doesn't make you stupid

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Not based on the common rhetoric used by posters.

Also a person can be dumb (make a bad choice) because of emotion. Just because they were emotionally enthralled doesn't make the logic not poor. It is splitting hairs over why they make the dumb choice but the end of the day is breaking that is still a hurdle that the champ will need to do.

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That is not the "common" rhetoric. It is the rhetoric reserved for the diehards who come and troll. The majority of the rhetoric I see is "anyone voting for trump is voting on sheer emotion". This board is littered with those types of comments.

A bad choice does not make one dumb. It's mean you did something dumb. There is a major difference and it can often effect things like a person's self esteem, so it should be highlighted

---

Next time tell a woman when she is wrong she is just being emotional. Then the time after tell her she is just being dumb. Oh wait you can't because she already killed you for your first comment.

Calling someone emotional isn't being nice it is passive aggressive speak for dumb but don't realize it. So double dumb.

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My wife understands on her own when she's being emotional. She also tells other women all the time they're being emotional. I guess if I lived in a world like you described, I might feel the same way

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You do live in that world, it is called Earth. There is a reason that is a punch line in several Babylon Bee skits.

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Maybe people should pick better wives

The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

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See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

---

They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

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This is oversimplifying the matter. People are taking data points, as well as current tends and making a prediction. He lost in 2020 because he continuously shot himself in the foot. He has continued to shoot himself in the foot. He is turning off many key demographics and is only doubling down. Now he is insulting to republican governors that have massively improved their states.

We aren't saying "anyone who loses a race can't win again". We're saying he can't win again because he hasn't changed a single thing that hamstrung him last time. If trump came out a different man ready to set aside the antics that lost the White House, I don't think desantis would even be running

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If Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot why is he still winning by so much?! If you actually believed what you posted you would be confident DeSantis was going to win. Your posting lacks that confidence.

Also I love how people can take current trends and say Trump will lose. But people definitely can't take current trends and say DeSantis will lose to Trump. Because science!

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Because of emotion. I feel like I've spelled this out in depth already. It doesn't matter what he does, a certain amount of people are going to ride or die with him. People are now backing him up on fast tracking the vaccine or claiming he was never pro-lockdown and plenty of other nonsense because he hasn't disavowed them. His followers just change their positions. Or they ignore his stupidity, like when he called desantis out on Disney (wrong) and the heartbeat bill (wrong). They just ignore it. Not because they're stupid. They are just emotionally attached and that loyalty is hard to break.

And as far as I can see, only two posters are saying desantis has a good chance. I don't think he will win the primary. Im hopeful for a win, but completely expect him to lose because of the afore mentioned emotional attachment to trump

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The latter part of the first paragraph is the Teflon persona of an imperfect candidate. It is key in the propaganda MSM environment we live in.

If DeSantis posters all but agree Trump is going to win, then wouldn't their effort be better spent getting those emotionally manipulated to be more conservative rather than trying to alienate them? Yet this is not the preferred method of the bigger personalities nor posters here.

texagbeliever said:

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If DeSantis posters all but agree Trump is going to win, then wouldn't their effort be better spent getting those emotionally manipulated to be more conservative rather than trying to alienate them? Yet this is not the preferred method of the bigger personalities nor posters here.

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My point exactly...

But naw...better to just call them a cult and be dismissive of their viewpoints...

What I have been saying all along is that these "pro-Trump" hardliners are not on the "fringe" of our society...there are A LOT of them...at least as far as the primaries are concerned...

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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assuming Trump does hide from the debates it will be great watching DeSantis in that kind of atmosphere without the sideshow distractions Trump will bring. I think/hope that can be the start of what fully separates him from the pack of non-Trump options.

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But here's the problem, and there's just no getting around this...

If Trump doesn't show, DeSantis can say all of the amazing things that should have conservatives swooning over him, and it won't matter...

If Trump doesn't show, the headline will be "Trump didn't show"...

That is the paradox that the R party currently faces...

texagbeliever said:

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Question 1 eh what is the gotcha that he pocketed the money or something? So he ran for president, ticked off a very vengeful and spiteful progressive party just to grift people to increase his network by 12%. That's pretty loony.

Question 2. So we now should only look to elect candidates that the Democrat party hasn't launched an all out and illegal attack on? Yeah f that.

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For 1: Yes, people should know where that money was spent because you can damn sure believe the MSM knows and has investigative journalists that know. Very little went to legal challenges or GOP candidates and now Trump has no money in his PAC. So yes, it's a valid question and the press is going to make a guy who already isn't liked or trusted by most of the country look a lot worse unless he can answer that question and has a good answer.

For 2: It's a fair question. Will he pardon himself or not? If he does then that will be seen by many as an abuse of power because he didn't let the legal process play out. If he doesn't he is going into office with those cases still pending either conviction or appeals and they will be a huge distraction at best or a serious problem if he is convicted and is sentenced to jail at worst. Now you may not care but I guarantee you that some of the people Trump will need to vote for him care. He has no solution on the state issues other than to appeal if convicted and still deal with them. Most people don't care about Trump or any politician, they care about how this all affects them. Many even like Trump but they just aren't excited about all the drama already much less a promise of drama to come.

Believe me the Dems and MSM are hoping that Republicans don't care about those questions because they know Independents will. There is nothing they would like better than to have Trump talk about why it was ok for him to have some documents or why what he said on Jan 6 was ok. It doesn't matter if he is right btw and will likely eventually win a legal case. What matters is Trump needs folks that didn't vote for him last time to vote for him this time.

I agree it isn't fair and it sucks but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.

Quote:

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If Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot why is he still winning by so much?! If you actually believed what you posted you would be confident DeSantis was going to win. Your posting lacks that confidence.

Also I love how people can take current trends and say Trump will lose. But people definitely can't take current trends and say DeSantis will lose to Trump. Because science!

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Why is this difficult? There are enough people who don't care that he shot himself in the foot or aren't paying attention that he might get a plurality of the primary. All the people willing to overlook or deny any Trump warts are pretty much accounted for in the primary. In the general, that distinction is not cut 50-50. That is not DeSantis' (or any other primary challenger) problem. They have a different problem of name identification, challenging a former sitting president, etc.

Anyone not Trump has problems they need to overcome, but if they get the nomination, I think that is likely the hardest of the mountains for them to climb.On the flip side, the primary is by far Trump's easiest fight, and if he has any hope of winning the general, he should be polling way better than 50ish in the primary. So if your assertion is that if DeSantis, the challenger, can't win the primary, he can't win the general, then my assertion is if Trump, the de facto incumbent, can barely get half of the support of his own party in the primary, he sure as hell has an almost impossible task to win the general.

April 2020: Trump pitching his PPP loans: "It's one of the best loans I've ever seen... billions and billions of dollars." pic.twitter.com/N5IZzThCdZ

— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) July 31, 2023

FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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If DeSantis posters all but agree Trump is going to win, then wouldn't their effort be better spent getting those emotionally manipulated to be more conservative rather than trying to alienate them? Yet this is not the preferred method of the bigger personalities nor posters here.

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My point exactly...

But naw...better to just call them a cult and be dismissive of their viewpoints...

What I have been saying all along is that these "pro-Trump" hardliners are not on the "fringe" of our society...there are A LOT of them...at least as far as the primaries are concerned...

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Sorry but I disagree. I know a lot of Trump voters and most fall into the category of either sympathy for his situation legally or simply assuming he is the inevitable candidate or they just have fond memories of Pre Covid.

The "hardliners" are the folks out there saying DeSantis is colluding with the DOJ to take down Trump and saying he is owned by Ryan and Rove and is secretly a GOPe plant. That's basically what Truth Social has all over it as well as the Trump influencers, much less Loomer who is out there saying Casey faked her cancer and other complete insanity. There are actually a lot of those folks as well but Staff has kept most of them out of here thankfully. Go hang over at Free Republic or check out Conservative Treehouse sometime though.

I'm just going to keep doing what I have been. Pointing to DeSantis words and accomplishments as well as Trump's. I agree the namecalling is stupid and was glad to see DeSantis take the high road and say he thinks the juvenile antics by Trump help him. There is no way to control millions of supporters saying stupid things on either side though. I also will continue to add in some commentary and analysis based around watching elections and how they work since the '80s, its very easy to look at the wrong things (not that I am always right, that certainly isn't the case).

aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Question 1 eh what is the gotcha that he pocketed the money or something? So he ran for president, ticked off a very vengeful and spiteful progressive party just to grift people to increase his network by 12%. That's pretty loony.

Question 2. So we now should only look to elect candidates that the Democrat party hasn't launched an all out and illegal attack on? Yeah f that.

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For 1: Yes, people should know where that money was spent because you can damn sure believe the MSM knows and has investigative journalists that know. Very little went to legal challenges or GOP candidates and now Trump has no money in his PAC. So yes, it's a valid question and the press is going to make a guy who already isn't liked or trusted by most of the country look a lot worse unless he can answer that question and has a good answer.

For 2: It's a fair question. Will he pardon himself or not? If he does then that will be seen by many as an abuse of power because he didn't let the legal process play out. If he doesn't he is going into office with those cases still pending either conviction or appeals and they will be a huge distraction at best or a serious problem if he is convicted and is sentenced to jail at worst. Now you may not care but I guarantee you that some of the people Trump will need to vote for him care. He has no solution on the state issues other than to appeal if convicted and still deal with them. Most people don't care about Trump or any politician, they care about how this all affects them. Many even like Trump but they just aren't excited about all the drama already much less a promise of drama to come.

Believe me the Dems and MSM are hoping that Republicans don't care about those questions because they know Independents will. There is nothing they would like better than to have Trump talk about why it was ok for him to have some documents or why what he said on Jan 6 was ok. It doesn't matter if he is right btw and will likely eventually win a legal case. What matters is Trump needs folks that didn't vote for him last time to vote for him this time.

I agree it isn't fair and it sucks but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.

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People don't care about campaign donations. They care about paying rent. They care about grocery bills. They care about car costs. The independents aren't saying well I guess I need to vote for Biden and hyper inflation because Trump gave an unsatisfactory answer to a campaign fundraising he did in 2020. Just isn't close to the radar of important issues for people with REAL problems.

There is also the side that electing Trump is a referendum. Nothing is more powerful than a return after a falling out. Napoleon had more powers not less after his return. Now of course the hope is that he uses that as a referendum on the bureaucracy. Which is something Trump and DeSantis share. Like most of their policy stances.

texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

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And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

---

They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

---

This is oversimplifying the matter. People are taking data points, as well as current tends and making a prediction. He lost in 2020 because he continuously shot himself in the foot. He has continued to shoot himself in the foot. He is turning off many key demographics and is only doubling down. Now he is insulting to republican governors that have massively improved their states.

We aren't saying "anyone who loses a race can't win again". We're saying he can't win again because he hasn't changed a single thing that hamstrung him last time. If trump came out a different man ready to set aside the antics that lost the White House, I don't think desantis would even be running

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If Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot why is he still winning by so much?! If you actually believed what you posted you would be confident DeSantis was going to win. Your posting lacks that confidence.

Also I love how people can take current trends and say Trump will lose. But people definitely can't take current trends and say DeSantis will lose to Trump. Because science!

---

Because of emotion. I feel like I've spelled this out in depth already. It doesn't matter what he does, a certain amount of people are going to ride or die with him. People are now backing him up on fast tracking the vaccine or claiming he was never pro-lockdown and plenty of other nonsense because he hasn't disavowed them. His followers just change their positions. Or they ignore his stupidity, like when he called desantis out on Disney (wrong) and the heartbeat bill (wrong). They just ignore it. Not because they're stupid. They are just emotionally attached and that loyalty is hard to break.

And as far as I can see, only two posters are saying desantis has a good chance. I don't think he will win the primary. Im hopeful for a win, but completely expect him to lose because of the afore mentioned emotional attachment to trump

---

The latter part of the first paragraph is the Teflon persona of an imperfect candidate. It is key in the propaganda MSM environment we live in.

If DeSantis posters all but agree Trump is going to win, then wouldn't their effort be better spent getting those emotionally manipulated to be more conservative rather than trying to alienate them? Yet this is not the preferred method of the bigger personalities nor posters here.

---

We have been. We've been showing pro-desantis content. We've been explaining his victories. I don't see a single trump supporter saying that desantis hasn't put some major skins on the wall (except the trolls). Yet they're still leaning trump. Why?

I've said multiple times you can not reason with them but you haven't addressed that. You can not argue emotion with logic. Consider the idea of saying someone is making a decision based off of emotion = me calling them stupid. If I'm not even allowed to highlight the reason for their current allegiance without the risk of alienating them, then I am not in a reasonable discussion.

My God, you can tell its a Monday just from the past couple of pages of this thread alone!

texagbeliever said:

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aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Question 1 eh what is the gotcha that he pocketed the money or something? So he ran for president, ticked off a very vengeful and spiteful progressive party just to grift people to increase his network by 12%. That's pretty loony.

Question 2. So we now should only look to elect candidates that the Democrat party hasn't launched an all out and illegal attack on? Yeah f that.

---

For 1: Yes, people should know where that money was spent because you can damn sure believe the MSM knows and has investigative journalists that know. Very little went to legal challenges or GOP candidates and now Trump has no money in his PAC. So yes, it's a valid question and the press is going to make a guy who already isn't liked or trusted by most of the country look a lot worse unless he can answer that question and has a good answer.

For 2: It's a fair question. Will he pardon himself or not? If he does then that will be seen by many as an abuse of power because he didn't let the legal process play out. If he doesn't he is going into office with those cases still pending either conviction or appeals and they will be a huge distraction at best or a serious problem if he is convicted and is sentenced to jail at worst. Now you may not care but I guarantee you that some of the people Trump will need to vote for him care. He has no solution on the state issues other than to appeal if convicted and still deal with them. Most people don't care about Trump or any politician, they care about how this all affects them. Many even like Trump but they just aren't excited about all the drama already much less a promise of drama to come.

Believe me the Dems and MSM are hoping that Republicans don't care about those questions because they know Independents will. There is nothing they would like better than to have Trump talk about why it was ok for him to have some documents or why what he said on Jan 6 was ok. It doesn't matter if he is right btw and will likely eventually win a legal case. What matters is Trump needs folks that didn't vote for him last time to vote for him this time.

I agree it isn't fair and it sucks but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.

---

People don't care about campaign donations. They care about paying rent. They care about grocery bills. They care about car costs. The independents aren't saying well I guess I need to vote for Biden and hyper inflation because Trump gave an unsatisfactory answer to a campaign fundraising he did in 2020. Just isn't close to the radar of important issues for people with REAL problems.

There is also the side that electing Trump is a referendum. Nothing is more powerful than a return after a falling out. Napoleon had more powers not less after his return. Now of course the hope is that he uses that as a referendum on the bureaucracy. Which is something Trump and DeSantis share. Like most of their policy stances.

---

Problem is you are forgetting that Trump has very little if any margin of error to start with. A LOT of people will always hate him and never vote for him. BTW those weren't campaign donations those were donations for lawsuits and the lawsuits never happened. The money for the most part just vanished. I get that you don't care but some people do, especially considering that Trump is trying to convince everyone that he is a victim and not a criminal.

I get the referendum thing and that's fine. Still the reality is those legal matters are real and aren't going away unless Trump wins the cases or gets a pardon. You are also sorely mistaken if you think most of the public (not the GOP but the larger electorate) gives the slightest care about Trump getting retribution you are sorely mistaken. A lot of folks just want him to go away and couldn't care less if he goes to jail and that's not just Democrats, they are just tired of the drama and sideshow. So the real question is how does he deal with those legal matters specifically? What's the plan? Pardon or no?

The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

---

They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

---

This is oversimplifying the matter. People are taking data points, as well as current tends and making a prediction. He lost in 2020 because he continuously shot himself in the foot. He has continued to shoot himself in the foot. He is turning off many key demographics and is only doubling down. Now he is insulting to republican governors that have massively improved their states.

We aren't saying "anyone who loses a race can't win again". We're saying he can't win again because he hasn't changed a single thing that hamstrung him last time. If trump came out a different man ready to set aside the antics that lost the White House, I don't think desantis would even be running

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If Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot why is he still winning by so much?! If you actually believed what you posted you would be confident DeSantis was going to win. Your posting lacks that confidence.

Also I love how people can take current trends and say Trump will lose. But people definitely can't take current trends and say DeSantis will lose to Trump. Because science!

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Because of emotion. I feel like I've spelled this out in depth already. It doesn't matter what he does, a certain amount of people are going to ride or die with him. People are now backing him up on fast tracking the vaccine or claiming he was never pro-lockdown and plenty of other nonsense because he hasn't disavowed them. His followers just change their positions. Or they ignore his stupidity, like when he called desantis out on Disney (wrong) and the heartbeat bill (wrong). They just ignore it. Not because they're stupid. They are just emotionally attached and that loyalty is hard to break.

And as far as I can see, only two posters are saying desantis has a good chance. I don't think he will win the primary. Im hopeful for a win, but completely expect him to lose because of the afore mentioned emotional attachment to trump

---

The latter part of the first paragraph is the Teflon persona of an imperfect candidate. It is key in the propaganda MSM environment we live in.

If DeSantis posters all but agree Trump is going to win, then wouldn't their effort be better spent getting those emotionally manipulated to be more conservative rather than trying to alienate them? Yet this is not the preferred method of the bigger personalities nor posters here.

---

We have been. We've been showing pro-desantis content. We've been explaining his victories. I don't see a single trump supporter saying that desantis hasn't put some major skins on the wall (except the trolls). Yet they're still leaning trump. Why?

I've said multiple times you can not reason with them but you haven't addressed that. You can not argue emotion with logic. Consider the idea of saying someone is making a decision based off of emotion = me calling them stupid. If I'm not even allowed to highlight the reason for their current allegiance without the risk of alienating them, then I am not in a reasonable discussion.

---

You have your head in the sand. Look up most DeSantis threads. Always an attack on Trump. Stars galore. Even the Vivek "lies" thread was anyone not DeSantis is bad. And neutrals were accused of being Trump loyalists.

Also your goal is obviously not to change a PA24 or science denier or LDP mind. Your goal should be to be influential on the people who read but don't post. Those are the ones actually open to influence. A smart man realizes the key audience and for the most part the DeSantis team on Texags has failed to target them effectively.

‼️WATCH! I interviewed Tom who says he and his partner lost half a million in wealth due to the shutdowns!

Tom says Ron DeSantis is the man to turn things around! pic.twitter.com/v96D36Imhx

— Chris Nelson 🇺🇸 🏝 (@ReOpenChris) July 31, 2023

aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Question 1 eh what is the gotcha that he pocketed the money or something? So he ran for president, ticked off a very vengeful and spiteful progressive party just to grift people to increase his network by 12%. That's pretty loony.

Question 2. So we now should only look to elect candidates that the Democrat party hasn't launched an all out and illegal attack on? Yeah f that.

---

For 1: Yes, people should know where that money was spent because you can damn sure believe the MSM knows and has investigative journalists that know. Very little went to legal challenges or GOP candidates and now Trump has no money in his PAC. So yes, it's a valid question and the press is going to make a guy who already isn't liked or trusted by most of the country look a lot worse unless he can answer that question and has a good answer.

For 2: It's a fair question. Will he pardon himself or not? If he does then that will be seen by many as an abuse of power because he didn't let the legal process play out. If he doesn't he is going into office with those cases still pending either conviction or appeals and they will be a huge distraction at best or a serious problem if he is convicted and is sentenced to jail at worst. Now you may not care but I guarantee you that some of the people Trump will need to vote for him care. He has no solution on the state issues other than to appeal if convicted and still deal with them. Most people don't care about Trump or any politician, they care about how this all affects them. Many even like Trump but they just aren't excited about all the drama already much less a promise of drama to come.

Believe me the Dems and MSM are hoping that Republicans don't care about those questions because they know Independents will. There is nothing they would like better than to have Trump talk about why it was ok for him to have some documents or why what he said on Jan 6 was ok. It doesn't matter if he is right btw and will likely eventually win a legal case. What matters is Trump needs folks that didn't vote for him last time to vote for him this time.

I agree it isn't fair and it sucks but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.

---

People don't care about campaign donations. They care about paying rent. They care about grocery bills. They care about car costs. The independents aren't saying well I guess I need to vote for Biden and hyper inflation because Trump gave an unsatisfactory answer to a campaign fundraising he did in 2020. Just isn't close to the radar of important issues for people with REAL problems.

There is also the side that electing Trump is a referendum. Nothing is more powerful than a return after a falling out. Napoleon had more powers not less after his return. Now of course the hope is that he uses that as a referendum on the bureaucracy. Which is something Trump and DeSantis share. Like most of their policy stances.

---

Problem is you are forgetting that Trump has very little if any margin of error to start with. A LOT of people will always hate him and never vote for him. BTW those weren't campaign donations those were donations for lawsuits and the lawsuits never happened. The money for the most part just vanished. I get that you don't care but some people do, especially considering that Trump is trying to convince everyone that he is a victim and not a criminal.

I get the referendum thing and that's fine. Still the reality is those legal matters are real and aren't going away unless Trump wins the cases or gets a pardon. You are also sorely mistaken if you think most of the public (not the GOP but the larger electorate) gives the slightest care about Trump getting retribution you are sorely mistaken. A lot of folks just want him to go away and couldn't care less if he goes to jail and that's not just Democrats, they are just tired of the drama and sideshow. So the real question is how does he deal with those legal matters specifically? What's the plan? Pardon or no?

---

So an independent is going to care about legal donations and not care about crack in the Whitehouse. Joe Bidens Burisima bribe connection. Yeah then that person isn't an independent.

Strongly disagree on the second point. I see America in a similar state of 1810 or so. The frontier were wanting a fight with the British the comfortable new Englanders were happy as is. Replace British with American Political elite, frontier with non-urban America and new englanders with urban/some suburban.

DeSantis racks up more Iowa sheriff endorsements for presidenthttps://t.co/OXMmCEZEqP

— Christina Pushaw 🐊 🇺🇸 (@ChristinaPushaw) July 31, 2023

texagbeliever said:

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aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Question 1 eh what is the gotcha that he pocketed the money or something? So he ran for president, ticked off a very vengeful and spiteful progressive party just to grift people to increase his network by 12%. That's pretty loony.

Question 2. So we now should only look to elect candidates that the Democrat party hasn't launched an all out and illegal attack on? Yeah f that.

---

For 1: Yes, people should know where that money was spent because you can damn sure believe the MSM knows and has investigative journalists that know. Very little went to legal challenges or GOP candidates and now Trump has no money in his PAC. So yes, it's a valid question and the press is going to make a guy who already isn't liked or trusted by most of the country look a lot worse unless he can answer that question and has a good answer.

For 2: It's a fair question. Will he pardon himself or not? If he does then that will be seen by many as an abuse of power because he didn't let the legal process play out. If he doesn't he is going into office with those cases still pending either conviction or appeals and they will be a huge distraction at best or a serious problem if he is convicted and is sentenced to jail at worst. Now you may not care but I guarantee you that some of the people Trump will need to vote for him care. He has no solution on the state issues other than to appeal if convicted and still deal with them. Most people don't care about Trump or any politician, they care about how this all affects them. Many even like Trump but they just aren't excited about all the drama already much less a promise of drama to come.

Believe me the Dems and MSM are hoping that Republicans don't care about those questions because they know Independents will. There is nothing they would like better than to have Trump talk about why it was ok for him to have some documents or why what he said on Jan 6 was ok. It doesn't matter if he is right btw and will likely eventually win a legal case. What matters is Trump needs folks that didn't vote for him last time to vote for him this time.

I agree it isn't fair and it sucks but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.

---

People don't care about campaign donations. They care about paying rent. They care about grocery bills. They care about car costs. The independents aren't saying well I guess I need to vote for Biden and hyper inflation because Trump gave an unsatisfactory answer to a campaign fundraising he did in 2020. Just isn't close to the radar of important issues for people with REAL problems.

There is also the side that electing Trump is a referendum. Nothing is more powerful than a return after a falling out. Napoleon had more powers not less after his return. Now of course the hope is that he uses that as a referendum on the bureaucracy. Which is something Trump and DeSantis share. Like most of their policy stances.

---

Problem is you are forgetting that Trump has very little if any margin of error to start with. A LOT of people will always hate him and never vote for him. BTW those weren't campaign donations those were donations for lawsuits and the lawsuits never happened. The money for the most part just vanished. I get that you don't care but some people do, especially considering that Trump is trying to convince everyone that he is a victim and not a criminal.

I get the referendum thing and that's fine. Still the reality is those legal matters are real and aren't going away unless Trump wins the cases or gets a pardon. You are also sorely mistaken if you think most of the public (not the GOP but the larger electorate) gives the slightest care about Trump getting retribution you are sorely mistaken. A lot of folks just want him to go away and couldn't care less if he goes to jail and that's not just Democrats, they are just tired of the drama and sideshow. So the real question is how does he deal with those legal matters specifically? What's the plan? Pardon or no?

---

So an independent is going to care about legal donations and not care about crack in the Whitehouse. Joe Bidens Burisima bribe connection. Yeah then that person isn't an independent.

Strongly disagree on the second point. I see America in a similar state of 1810 or so. The frontier were wanting a fight with the British the comfortable new Englanders were happy as is. Replace British with American Political elite, frontier with non-urban America and new englanders with urban/some suburban.

---

I mean that's fine if that is your opinion but I would say you don't know many Independents or people that might vote Republican but have issues with Trump. The "Biden is worse!" argument also only goes so far and if Biden is replaced by Newsom or Granholm then it completely goes away.

On the second point I don't disagree about the divide in the country but I do not think people are ready for Civil/Revolutionary War. Moreso you are missing the real point which is there is 10-20% that can swing either way and are in the Suburbs. Urban areas are Dark Blue. Rural are Dark Red. So it is about who wins those Suburban votes. Most of those folks are comfortable but concerned. They aren't ready to pick up torches and pitchforks but they also aren't happy with the status quo. They are mainly worried about their own future and the future for their kids. Trump's legal battles are WAAAAY down the list for them and if anything they are just a giant distraction.

Once again this isn't even about my personal feelings this is just the reality of the electorate. I'm not arguing right or wrong or how I want the world to be but rather how it actually is.

I continue to fail to see how a Gavin Newsom could appeal to independents...

CA is quite literally hemorrhaging tax dollars...that state is completely mismanaged...

I just don't think Newsom is the threat that some folks think...

Look people will have a top 5 issues. There is a 0.0% chance a real independent has donation fund allocation as one of those issues. That is why I was saying that issue isn't an issue that matters.

Crime, economy jobs, economy inflation, transgender surgery on minors, DEI, abortion climate change, Ukraine war are going to be the issues swing voters vote on.

I agree. He is a "perfect" candidate and would match up horribly with Trump. Much like Clinton did.

I think my money would be on Hakeem Jeffries...

As miserable a POS as Newsome is, he would represent a "new, different" option to million of voters. I believe he would win rather handily vs Trump. He represents a younger generation and would attract women IMHO.

FireAg said:

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I continue to fail to see how a Gavin Newsom could appeal to independents...

CA is quite literally hemorrhaging tax dollars...that state is completely mismanaged...

I just don't think Newsom is the threat that some folks think...

---

Think Beto to see he appeal, especially to women. Policy and failures won't matter.

And Frau Whitmer from Michigan is looking more and more likely as the replacement rather than Newsom.

Whitmer is the other name I could see…

FireAg said:

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I continue to fail to see how a Gavin Newsom could appeal to independents...

CA is quite literally hemorrhaging tax dollars...that state is completely mismanaged...

I just don't think Newsom is the threat that some folks think...

---

Seriously? Newsom is young, handsome, and an excellent speaker and debater. He will have full MSM backing and can lie without flinching. I see him just doing a lot of concerned shaking of the head at Trump if they debate while looking like the adult in the room. Go watch the Hannity interview with him and just throw all the rational thinking out the window and how you know he is a scumbag out as well. Most people just aren't that engaged. Also realize that Trump vs anyone but Biden will be about Trump. Period. That's how these things work.

I despise Newsom btw and think he is basically Satan. If it is Newsom vs DeSantis though then you have 2 new candidates and it is about issues which means Cali vs Florida. That's a very different contest.

You have to look at how the races will turn out and not how you want them to turn out. Races with incumbents or high name ID candidates are referendums on those candidates. If you think Trump wins a race where it is Trump vs Generic Democrat you need to look at that 60-65% Disapprove rating again.

Rapier108 said:

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FireAg said:

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I continue to fail to see how a Gavin Newsom could appeal to independents...

CA is quite literally hemorrhaging tax dollars...that state is completely mismanaged...

I just don't think Newsom is the threat that some folks think...

---

Think Beto to see he appeal, especially to women. Policy and failures won't matter.

And Frau Whitmer from Michigan is looking more and more likely as the replacement rather than Newsom.

---

I agree that Whitmer is much more palatable to the independents and moderates. Unlike Newsome and Beto, she wouldn't be seen as someone as far to the left as those two are.

Newsome wouldn't work in the rust belt states. He's way too polished and comes off as an elitist I think she'd be heavily vetted if the time came.

Quote:

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You have your head in the sand. Look up most DeSantis threads. Always an attack on Trump. Stars galore. Even the Vivek "lies" thread was anyone not DeSantis is bad. And neutrals were accused of being Trump loyalists.

Also your goal is obviously not to change a PA24 or science denier or LDP mind. Your goal should be to be influential on the people who read but don't post. Those are the ones actually open to influence. A smart man realizes the key audience and for the most part the DeSantis team on Texags has failed to target them effectively.

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Look up most Trump threads, and there are always attacks on Biden. It's politics, and those attacks are on what we see as really bad shortcomings that we need to avoid.

One of the hardest things to get in politics if you don't have it is a brand. If you can build a brand with loyalty, then it's very difficult to break through that. Before Trump got a single vote, he had towers with his name on it and TV reality shows. If we are going to fix that with something that actually matters, there is going to be a lot of comparisons, and there should be.

"You know Dan, Desantis is a very thorough candidate that doesn't do something without a well thought out plan. I think that is a pretty important thing to consider right now, based on what is happening in politics."

"I don't see how that matters, Jon. That's really boring and doesn't pull my attention away from the outrage porn I watch every day."

"Well, Dan, that is exactly WHY it is important to have a well thought out plan, even if it seems boring, because when you do, you don't find yourself being prosecuted for stupid stuff because you weren't careful about what you do."

If you are going to fight poor performance that has a heavy brand attachment to it, you HAVE to do a comparison to see why there is a need to change from the established brand.

texagbeliever said:

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Look people will have a top 5 issues. There is a 0.0% chance a real independent has donation fund allocation as one of those issues. That is why I was saying that issue isn't an issue that matters.

Crime, economy jobs, economy inflation, transgender surgery on minors, DEI, abortion climate change, Ukraine war are going to be the issues swing voters vote on.

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Ah, but Trump has made his biggest issue how he has been wrongly prosecuted. While I agree that also means ANYTHING that makes him look shady or criminal is on the table for right or wrong. It also just reinforces why he won't be able to do anything about any of those other issues you mention because he will be mired in other legal woes or explaining he isn't a crook.

Not saying any of this is right but it just is what it is. Trump is careless and it leaves him constantly exposed, that's why he couldn't get much done before and it will be the death knell for any future Presidency (or more accurately the ability to get there).

Oh and if they replace out Biden with pretty much anyone all you are going to hear about is how old Trump is and looking at videos showing his age or missteps. Of course Biden has been 100x worse but that stuff only goes around the GOP world. It will also make the "OMG, I can't handle ANOTHER 80 year old" argument have legs. God forbid Trump has even the slightest health scare which for a man his age is statistically likely to happen. He's almost certainly on meds or has issues of some kind. Without Biden there all that just falls like a ton of bricks on Trump.

Remember Trump has virtually no margin for error, any one of those issues is fatal.

Looks like Trump officially ducking debate and wants a free for all for VP.

Well, Trump did publicly what I thought he'd do privately. He's egging on a dogpile on Ron DeSantis by all the other also-ran candidates with an offer of the supposed 'prize' of being Trump's VP running mate. Anyone thinking that slot is anything but the most painful way to end a… pic.twitter.com/9o44O96KMT

— Yoda4DeSantis (Michael Openshaw) (@mopenshaw) July 31, 2023

aggie93 said:

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Looks like Trump officially ducking debate and wants a free for all for VP.

Well, Trump did publicly what I thought he'd do privately. He's egging on a dogpile on Ron DeSantis by all the other also-ran candidates with an offer of the supposed 'prize' of being Trump's VP running mate. Anyone thinking that slot is anything but the most painful way to end a… pic.twitter.com/9o44O96KMT

— Yoda4DeSantis (Michael Openshaw) (@mopenshaw) July 31, 2023

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Not counting the ones who have a personal hated for Trump (Hutchinson, Christie, Hurd) there isn't one person running who would want to be his VP unless they have zero national aspirations after 2024, other than Vivek and even he's started to sour on Trump.

Trump getting support from some of the best places!

1/ Given the new NYT/Sienna poll, I'd just like to remind you one more time that spending money to defeat Trump in the primary is burning through donor resources that will be desperately needed in the general election.

In this, there are three schools of thought, all wrong. pic.twitter.com/PhpSJH4CAX

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) July 31, 2023

When Biden hid in the basement and tried to avoid debates, he was chastised - and rightfully so. Why do folks change their principles?