The Banned said:

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FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

We know that. Which is why there is such frustration with people still backing trump despite his completely horrible showings and glaring weaknesses.

---

You are frustrated that people accept the most likely reality and are trying to make the best of it?

FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

No one will know how accurate these polls are until Iowa, but I'm guessing we end up in a similar position as 2016, especially after the debates. Either Trump shows up and everyone is reminded how much of an unserious clown he is compared to the rest of the field, or he doesn't show up and they are reminded what debates are supposed to look like - actual policy discussions instead or 3rd grade name calling and easily disproven lies.

So, just like 2016 it'll come down to getting the non-Trump options out early enough. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

FireAg said:

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And on a national scale, DeSantis has lost ground, on average, over the last 4 weeks...

That's what the data currently says...

---

National polls mean little though, I don't know why that concept is so difficult for you. The race gets real after Iowa. People forget that Trump had an 11 point lead even in Iowa prior to the Caucus and got smoked by Cruz. After that it was a real race. Problem was Cruz didn't have enough money, he made some mistakes, and Rubio and Kasich stayed in too long. DeSantis is doing everything Cruz did plus a LOT more. Trump is basically taking the state for granted.

Trump also has SERIOUS money problems.

The real game is Iowa and NH and SC, everything else is a distraction because it all changes once the real votes start to happen.

Precisely why I posted the IA, NH, and SC averages as well…all are showing major Trump leads at present…on average…

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

No one will know how accurate these polls are until Iowa, but I'm guessing we end up in a similar position as 2016, especially after the debates. Either Trump shows up and everyone is reminded how much of an unserious clown he is compared to the rest of the field, or he doesn't show up and they are reminded what debates are supposed to look like - actual policy discussions instead or 3rd grade name calling and easily disproven lies.

So, just like 2016 it'll come down to getting the non-Trump options out early enough. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

---

Problem is…those aren't the only two outcomes…and some of y'all are ignoring that…

Trump doesn't show and it could solidify his base Ben more…

Trump shows up and does Trump, and it solidifies his base even more…

While I agree that many Americans are turned off by Trump, I have to also accept that many Americans are turned ON by Trump…

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

No one will know how accurate these polls are until Iowa, but I'm guessing we end up in a similar position as 2016, especially after the debates. Either Trump shows up and everyone is reminded how much of an unserious clown he is compared to the rest of the field, or he doesn't show up and they are reminded what debates are supposed to look like - actual policy discussions instead or 3rd grade name calling and easily disproven lies.

So, just like 2016 it'll come down to getting the non-Trump options out early enough. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

---

Wait it is Trumps fault debates aren't actual policy discussions. This is pure dilusion. Every comment is calculated to be a sound bite whether Trump is there or not.

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Your second paragraph leaves out the obvious: emotion. We all know emotion can blind us. People who are emotionally attached to trump are not able to see the obvious: he's not the best choice. That doesn't make them dumb/ignorant any more than someone losing their temper and breaking something is their house is dumb/ignorant. It's scientifically documented that high levels of emotion (any emotion) can lead to poor decision making. Doesn't make you stupid

The Banned said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Your second paragraph leaves out the obvious: emotion. We all know emotion can blind us. People who are emotionally attached to trump are not able to see the obvious: he's not the best choice. That doesn't make them dumb/ignorant any more than someone losing their temper and breaking something is their house is dumb/ignorant. It's scientifically documented that high levels of emotion (any emotion) can lead to poor decision making. Doesn't make you stupid

---

Not based on the common rhetoric used by posters.

Also a person can be dumb (make a bad choice) because of emotion. Just because they were emotionally enthralled doesn't make the logic not poor. It is splitting hairs over why they make the dumb choice but the end of the day is breaking that is still a hurdle that the champ will need to do.

FireAg said:

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Precisely why I posted the IA, NH, and SC averages as well…all are showing major Trump leads at present…on average…

---

Right, but those polls are pretty terrible as well when you look at historically how much they mean at this point and the allowance for errors. I mean they are a data point but you are acting like they are by far the most important thing when they simply aren't. Make that even moreso when you are talking about having someone with the Name ID of Trump in the race. Obama and Bill Clinton are good examples of how irrelevant they are. This is an unusual race in that the frontrunner is way behind on money and ground game.

Trump may well win but not because he has good poll numbers in July yet you just keep pointing to them and trying to make them life or death.

There is no other objective data point beyond those polls…

We shall see if they change, but for now, one has to assume that it is at least a reasonable representation of the current situation…

Doesn't mean it can't change, but it can't be ignored either…

It is AT LEAST a red flag…it is reason for concern…

A DeSantis primary win is anything but a foregone conclusion…in fact, the smart money currently is probably on Trump to be the nominee…

texagbeliever said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

No one will know how accurate these polls are until Iowa, but I'm guessing we end up in a similar position as 2016, especially after the debates. Either Trump shows up and everyone is reminded how much of an unserious clown he is compared to the rest of the field, or he doesn't show up and they are reminded what debates are supposed to look like - actual policy discussions instead or 3rd grade name calling and easily disproven lies.

So, just like 2016 it'll come down to getting the non-Trump options out early enough. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

---

Wait it is Trumps fault debates aren't actual policy discussions. This is pure dilusion. Every comment is calculated to be a sound bite whether Trump is there or not.

---

Of course it's his fault. He's an oaf who isn't interested in anything but name calling, lying and vague overpromises that he will never deliver. He knows that and knows that DeSantis and others will run circles around him, which is why he's most likely going to hide from the debates.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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texagbeliever said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

No one will know how accurate these polls are until Iowa, but I'm guessing we end up in a similar position as 2016, especially after the debates. Either Trump shows up and everyone is reminded how much of an unserious clown he is compared to the rest of the field, or he doesn't show up and they are reminded what debates are supposed to look like - actual policy discussions instead or 3rd grade name calling and easily disproven lies.

So, just like 2016 it'll come down to getting the non-Trump options out early enough. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

---

Wait it is Trumps fault debates aren't actual policy discussions. This is pure dilusion. Every comment is calculated to be a sound bite whether Trump is there or not.

---

Of course it's his fault. He's an oaf who isn't interested in anything but name calling, lying and vague overpromises that he will never deliver. He knows that and knows that DeSantis and others will run circles around him, which is why he's most likely going to hide from the debates.

---

I disagree…I don't think Trump "knows that"…

You believe he should know it, and that's you're right…but it is also your opinion…

If I try to put myself in Trump's shoes and I'm looking at the numbers, I'm thinking about how all of the media talk will be focused on me not showing up, and that has always tended to help me stay on top…

The story coming from a debate without Trump isn't the debate…it's the fact that Trump wasn't there…so yet another headline stolen and free publicity…

FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

---

They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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texagbeliever said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

No one will know how accurate these polls are until Iowa, but I'm guessing we end up in a similar position as 2016, especially after the debates. Either Trump shows up and everyone is reminded how much of an unserious clown he is compared to the rest of the field, or he doesn't show up and they are reminded what debates are supposed to look like - actual policy discussions instead or 3rd grade name calling and easily disproven lies.

So, just like 2016 it'll come down to getting the non-Trump options out early enough. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

---

Wait it is Trumps fault debates aren't actual policy discussions. This is pure dilusion. Every comment is calculated to be a sound bite whether Trump is there or not.

---

Of course it's his fault. He's an oaf who isn't interested in anything but name calling, lying and vague overpromises that he will never deliver. He knows that and knows that DeSantis and others will run circles around him, which is why he's most likely going to hide from the debates.

---

Please pull up policy debates between presidential candidates that are actually insightful. I'm sure you have tons of examples. They are all garbage and show. Acting like it is trumps fault is just a haters take.

FireAg said:

---

There is no other objective data point beyond those polls…

We shall see if they change, but for now, one has to assume that it is at least a reasonable representation of the current situation…

Doesn't mean it can't change, but it can't be ignored either…

It is AT LEAST a red flag…it is reason for concern…

A DeSantis primary win is anything but a foregone conclusion…in fact, the smart money currently is probably on Trump to be the nominee…

---

Sure there is. Money matters and ground game matters, big time. You win places like Iowa and NH on retail politics and those places do not care about national polls. They literally feel it is their job to vet candidates and expect to be wooed. Then whoever wins there gets a massive boost.

Both Governors from NH and Iowa are hostile to Trump and Trump is openly attacking them. They are also both also the most popular politicians in their states and while they don't endorse by tradition they are appearing with DeSantis regularly and clearly support him. It's about who can get people to show up. DeSantis will have knocked on every possible voter door multiple times in those states and he will know exactly who is voting for him and will make sure they get out to Caucus/Vote.

DeSantis is also sitting on a mountain of cash he is waiting to hit those early states with an all out blitz as the primaries approach. He knows he needs to build momentum and he has the resources to make sure his case will be made.

None of that means DeSantis will win but it means at least as much if not more than some of the polling right now. It matters more though because Trump is very short on cash and has a joke of a ground game. As you know it's about getting votes collected not rallies or polls.

texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Your second paragraph leaves out the obvious: emotion. We all know emotion can blind us. People who are emotionally attached to trump are not able to see the obvious: he's not the best choice. That doesn't make them dumb/ignorant any more than someone losing their temper and breaking something is their house is dumb/ignorant. It's scientifically documented that high levels of emotion (any emotion) can lead to poor decision making. Doesn't make you stupid

---

Not based on the common rhetoric used by posters.

Also a person can be dumb (make a bad choice) because of emotion. Just because they were emotionally enthralled doesn't make the logic not poor. It is splitting hairs over why they make the dumb choice but the end of the day is breaking that is still a hurdle that the champ will need to do.

---

That is not the "common" rhetoric. It is the rhetoric reserved for the diehards who come and troll. The majority of the rhetoric I see is "anyone voting for trump is voting on sheer emotion". This board is littered with those types of comments.

A bad choice does not make one dumb. It's mean you did something dumb. There is a major difference and it can often effect things like a person's self esteem, so it should be highlighted

texagbeliever said:

---

FireAg said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

---

They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

---

This is oversimplifying the matter. People are taking data points, as well as current tends and making a prediction. He lost in 2020 because he continuously shot himself in the foot. He has continued to shoot himself in the foot. He is turning off many key demographics and is only doubling down. Now he is insulting to republican governors that have massively improved their states.

We aren't saying "anyone who loses a race can't win again". We're saying he can't win again because he hasn't changed a single thing that hamstrung him last time. If trump came out a different man ready to set aside the antics that lost the White House, I don't think desantis would even be running

The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

---

The Banned said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Your second paragraph leaves out the obvious: emotion. We all know emotion can blind us. People who are emotionally attached to trump are not able to see the obvious: he's not the best choice. That doesn't make them dumb/ignorant any more than someone losing their temper and breaking something is their house is dumb/ignorant. It's scientifically documented that high levels of emotion (any emotion) can lead to poor decision making. Doesn't make you stupid

---

Not based on the common rhetoric used by posters.

Also a person can be dumb (make a bad choice) because of emotion. Just because they were emotionally enthralled doesn't make the logic not poor. It is splitting hairs over why they make the dumb choice but the end of the day is breaking that is still a hurdle that the champ will need to do.

---

That is not the "common" rhetoric. It is the rhetoric reserved for the diehards who come and troll. The majority of the rhetoric I see is "anyone voting for trump is voting on sheer emotion". This board is littered with those types of comments.

A bad choice does not make one dumb. It's mean you did something dumb. There is a major difference and it can often effect things like a person's self esteem, so it should be highlighted

---

Next time tell a woman when she is wrong she is just being emotional. Then the time after tell her she is just being dumb. Oh wait you can't because she already killed you for your first comment.

Calling someone emotional isn't being nice it is passive aggressive speak for dumb but don't realize it. So double dumb.

Women get upset at being called emotional because it is true!

The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

---

They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

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This is oversimplifying the matter. People are taking data points, as well as current tends and making a prediction. He lost in 2020 because he continuously shot himself in the foot. He has continued to shoot himself in the foot. He is turning off many key demographics and is only doubling down. Now he is insulting to republican governors that have massively improved their states.

We aren't saying "anyone who loses a race can't win again". We're saying he can't win again because he hasn't changed a single thing that hamstrung him last time. If trump came out a different man ready to set aside the antics that lost the White House, I don't think desantis would even be running

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If Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot why is he still winning by so much?! If you actually believed what you posted you would be confident DeSantis was going to win. Your posting lacks that confidence.

Also I love how people can take current trends and say Trump will lose. But people definitely can't take current trends and say DeSantis will lose to Trump. Because science!

Im Gipper said:

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Women get upset at being called emotional because it is true!

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No comment on that, just pointing out how calling someone emotional is not some nice thing.

texagbeliever said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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texagbeliever said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

No one will know how accurate these polls are until Iowa, but I'm guessing we end up in a similar position as 2016, especially after the debates. Either Trump shows up and everyone is reminded how much of an unserious clown he is compared to the rest of the field, or he doesn't show up and they are reminded what debates are supposed to look like - actual policy discussions instead or 3rd grade name calling and easily disproven lies.

So, just like 2016 it'll come down to getting the non-Trump options out early enough. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

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Wait it is Trumps fault debates aren't actual policy discussions. This is pure dilusion. Every comment is calculated to be a sound bite whether Trump is there or not.

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Of course it's his fault. He's an oaf who isn't interested in anything but name calling, lying and vague overpromises that he will never deliver. He knows that and knows that DeSantis and others will run circles around him, which is why he's most likely going to hide from the debates.

---

Please pull up policy debates between presidential candidates that are actually insightful. I'm sure you have tons of examples. They are all garbage and show. Acting like it is trumps fault is just a haters take.

---

Literally every debate before 2016. Only one candidate in history brought idiotic 3rd grade nicknames to a presidential debate. It's embarrassing and below what the debates are supposed to be.

It's also the reason he's still not back on twitter. He knows his schtick only works with the shrinking percentage of the country that are on Truth social or at his increasingly sad rallies. The less he reminds everyone else of how unserious of a person he is the more can skate by on name recognition. It's also why he's desperately trying to get the other candidates to all drop out before we get anywhere close to the first primaries.

So that is no evidence. I can't wait to see a John McCain going into the intricacies of Iraq war in a 90 sec clip. Or Romney breaking down the true economic costs of universal Healthcare. I'll be patient and wait for you.

texagbeliever said:

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FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Correct…

And right now, I see a ton of red flags saying he may very well not topple The Donald…

---

They have this determinism conundrum. They think Trump will lose 2024 because he lost in 2018 and 2020. So if DeSantis loses to Trump in 2024 they will then be forced to look for someone else because DeSantis losing in 2024 means he can't win in 2028. It is a very poor way to look at the future but it is common throughout history. I call it the logic inertia fallacy.

---

Trump will lose in '24 because he has an Unfavorable rating well above 60% and has done everything he can to burn the bridges in GA and AZ without both of which he has no path to win. That might be fixable except he has 100% Name ID and very little chance of getting people that dislike him to change their minds, he isn't even trying to appeal to them. You cannot win with just the MAGA base, period. You must appeal to others.

Does that mean DeSantis will? We do not know for certain but he has all the characteristics to make that feasible along with a track record in FL of doing exactly that.

It's simply the science of politics and election cycles. Of course there are always exceptions and things can change but it is very, very unlikely that Trump can do so based on how set people are either for or against him. His only shot is that he gets the nomination and Biden stays the Dem candidate and becomes even more toxic than Trump. Even then the Democrats have their votes banked because of the machinery they have in place so they will get their turnout. I will definitely vote for Trump if he is the nominee but I can see no path, it's a far taller mountain to climb than 2016. If the Dems switch out Biden for Newsom or Granholm then it's even more impossible.

BTW, 2 questions Trump needs to be forced to answer before he gets that nomination because they are deal killers:

1. What happened to the $250 million from Stop the Steal?

2. If you are elected will you pardon yourself or will you allow the legal process to play out? As a follow up, what are you going to do about the 2 state charges against you and will they be a distraction in office since you have such limited time as a 1 Termer?

Make no mistake the Dems will hammer the crap out of him with those 2 questions once they know he is the nominee along with other really uncomfortable ones that he has no real response to. I'd rather he have to deal with that before he gets the keys to the car.

Wow. Quite the contrast.

While Trump’s PAC spent $40.2M on legal fees, the DeSantis PAC used 85% of their total $33.8M of spending for direct voter contact.

One team is building an actual campaign, the other is creating a fundraising scheme. pic.twitter.com/cCpCfESDoQ

— AG (@AGHamilton29) July 31, 2023

texagbeliever said:

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The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

---

The Banned said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

J. Walter Weatherman said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Okay...but my point is that there simply aren't very many that are going for DeSantis to begin with...

And that's why the national average gap is growing...at least for now...

---

I think there is a difference between the support base. DeSantis is a challenger. When you support a challenger, you are already admitting that the current frontrunner is not what you want and you are willing to back certain positions and ideas in rough form. Those get worked out throughout the primary season and that vote is fluid. There is going to be an ordered list of candidates that fit more or less what you support the most.

For Trump, there is a lot of the base that has a top 5 list that Trump has all 5 slots, and there is no examination of any issues beyond "Is their last name Trump". If it is literally not possible to break into that list, because the first criteria to be on the list is to be Trump, at some point, you have to point to the people with that list and call it what it is. This obsession with Trump and only Trump is what is killing the Republican party.

---

If DeSantis can't find a way to break into that list...he won't be the R nominee...

I'm sorry to say, but it is just that simple...

---

The point is he can't win over any of the Trump diehards because they are 100% Trump or bust in the primary. He just needs to win the other 65-70% of the party who is actually open to another option as the other candidates drop out, hopefully in time.

---

And this is where I think you (and to be fair, many others) are making a mistake...

I think in the primaries, as things stand right now, the number of "100% Trump" are greater than 30-35%...I personally think that, from a primary perspective, that number is north of 50% nationally...

That's what the national polling (and state polling) averages are telling my eyes at the moment...

---

You can't only be "realistic" about the numbers in one way, but ignore the numbers elsewhere. The reality of it is, there are a number of people, yes, even on the right, that will never vote for Trump. He has burned too many bridges. If we are going to win this battle against the left of "win at all costs", that will not happen for Trump. He has a very energetic base, and the rest don't want him at all. Trying to get someone to argue for Trump at work, or go knock on doors is a much bigger ask than for any other candidate, and it won't happen for this fight. You will get a bigger segment on the right to tune out. Politics won't be for them this go round.

So you can say to be realistic about if Trump gets the nomination, but I say be realistic to know that is what we are signing up for. Just don't get upset when the people who get dragged down with the ship aren't super enthused about doing the paddling along with those who picked the ship with gaping holes on the side.

---

See the last paragraph for an example of setting up the "I told you so so". Appreciate your help in illustrating my point.

Also it is tatologically failing. Trump is obviously a bad candidate. If that were true the obviousness would be true to primary voters and they would be voting for DeSantis. Which isn't happening.
The other explanation is that the average republican primary voter is dumb or ignorant. Okay but if DeSantis can't win over the dumb/ignorant Trump voters how is he suppose to win the way more ignorant non-primary voting moderate?!

Basically this is the test. If DeSantis can topple Trump he will be set to win over Biden, if he can't, then he wouldn't be as sure a thing as you guys believe. There is a highlander element to politics.

---

Your second paragraph leaves out the obvious: emotion. We all know emotion can blind us. People who are emotionally attached to trump are not able to see the obvious: he's not the best choice. That doesn't make them dumb/ignorant any more than someone losing their temper and breaking something is their house is dumb/ignorant. It's scientifically documented that high levels of emotion (any emotion) can lead to poor decision making. Doesn't make you stupid

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Not based on the common rhetoric used by posters.

Also a person can be dumb (make a bad choice) because of emotion. Just because they were emotionally enthralled doesn't make the logic not poor. It is splitting hairs over why they make the dumb choice but the end of the day is breaking that is still a hurdle that the champ will need to do.

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That is not the "common" rhetoric. It is the rhetoric reserved for the diehards who come and troll. The majority of the rhetoric I see is "anyone voting for trump is voting on sheer emotion". This board is littered with those types of comments.

A bad choice does not make one dumb. It's mean you did something dumb. There is a major difference and it can often effect things like a person's self esteem, so it should be highlighted

---

Next time tell a woman when she is wrong she is just being emotional. Then the time after tell her she is just being dumb. Oh wait you can't because she already killed you for your first comment.

Calling someone emotional isn't being nice it is passive aggressive speak for dumb but don't realize it. So double dumb.

---

My wife understands on her own when she's being emotional. She also tells other women all the time they're being emotional. I guess if I lived in a world like you described, I might feel the same way

Here is how @RonDeSantis will reverse the decline of our nation’s economy and fight for the middle class. pic.twitter.com/WXon1Dnv9y

— Team DeSantis (@TeamDeSantis) July 31, 2023

Ron DeSantis' Declaration of Economic Independence pic.twitter.com/yNWNK9yZpR

— Dereck (@derecknt) July 31, 2023

DeSantis’ economic plan is objectively excellent.

High points include:
Decoupling from China
Ensuring Energy Independence  
Education reform
Border security and enforcement
Reforming the Fed
Cutting wasteful spending

— Philip Reichert (@PhilipReichert) July 31, 2023

Question 1 eh what is the gotcha that he pocketed the money or something? So he ran for president, ticked off a very vengeful and spiteful progressive party just to grift people to increase his net worth by 12%. That's pretty loony.

Question 2. So we now should only look to elect candidates that the Democrat party hasn't launched an all out and illegal attack on? Yeah f that.

texagbeliever said:

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So that is no evidence. I can't wait to see a John McCain going into the intricacies of Iraq war in a 90 sec clip. Or Romney breaking down the true economic costs of universal Healthcare. I'll be patient and wait for you.

---

I'm not really sure how to have a discussion with someone who doesn't think Trump dramatically changed the professionalism of the debates, but a 5 second search brings up a number of examples from 2012. Notice what's missing? No idiotic nicknames, references to candidates' families, etc. just disagreements on policy and actual debating of those disagreements.

https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/immigration-racial-profiling-patriot-act-divide-republicans-at-gop-debate/

I'm surprised you're even arguing this. Figured it's something his supporters would be proud of.

Anyways, to bring it back to the thread topic, assuming Trump does hide from the debates it will be great watching DeSantis in that kind of atmosphere without the sideshow distractions Trump will bring. I think/hope that can be the start of what fully separates him from the pack of non-Trump options.