Sinema will win. Independents are now the largest voting bloc in AZ

Quote:

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Clay thinks Trump is going to pick RFK Jr. as his VP

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Wouldn't shock me in the least... nor would the lemmings that dropped whatever principles they had left to pretend it's an intelligent move.

Mad Meatball

The new, 3,000-square-foot space at LINC, located on the southeast corner of Martin Luther King Jr. Parkway and Southwest 11th Street, has customized booths and high-top tables, a three-sided bar and a patio with a view of the downtown Des Moines skyline.

Mad Meatball reopens in Des Moines Tuesday in new downtown spot (desmoinesregister.com)

TRM said:

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Sinema will win. Independents are now the largest voting bloc in AZ

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Unless the Republican gets the backing of the McCain family, then he or she would likely win.

The McCains still hold a massive amount of sway with Arizona voters.

GOP just needs to run a solid conservative Republican and they will win. Of course that's probably asking too much. That's such a weird state politically.

Next time someone talks about who is a "Proven Warrior" remember this:

Of the nicknames @realDonaldTrump has given @RonDeSantis, “DeSanctus” is by far my favorite. It literally translates to “the holy one” which I am more than obliged to agree with between the 2 of them. DeSantis fought the child-groomers & predators at @Disney and beat back on… pic.twitter.com/vuhBZZkp3k

— Joshua Shorba (@ShorbaNation) July 13, 2023

Clay has a twitter poll currently where given choice of RFKjr or Pence, 74% pick RFKjr!

Not exactly a conservative group of followers! This guy took Rush's place? Sad!

Im Gipper said:

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Clay has a twitter poll currently where given choice of RFKjr or Pence, 74% pick RFKjr!

Not exactly a conservative group of followers! This guy took Rush's place? Sad!

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The only reason I even know who Clay Travis is because of the SEC.

His takes there were suspect too.

Im Gipper said:

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Clay has a twitter poll currently where given choice of RFKjr or Pence, 74% pick RFKjr!

Not exactly a conservative group of followers! This guy took Rush's place? Sad!

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I would choose RFK over a traitor.

aggiehawg said:

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Im Gipper said:

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Clay has a twitter poll currently where given choice of RFKjr or Pence, 74% pick RFKjr!

Not exactly a conservative group of followers! This guy took Rush's place? Sad!

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The only reason I even know who Clay Travis is because of the SEC.

His takes there were suspect too.

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He voted for Obama, twice.

Good timing for this ad.

Florida and Iowa have led the way in the fight to preserve and defend freedom — and @RonDeSantis is running for president to take that fight to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Governor DeSantis is working hard to earn the nomination — there is no substitute for victory. Let's do this,… pic.twitter.com/T1Yj5ruA1B

— Team DeSantis (@TeamDeSantis) July 13, 2023

SociallyConditionedAg said:

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Im Gipper said:

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Clay has a twitter poll currently where given choice of RFKjr or Pence, 74% pick RFKjr!

Not exactly a conservative group of followers! This guy took Rush's place? Sad!

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I would choose RFK over a traitor.

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Please outline how exactly Pence was a traitor.

TRM said:

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Good timing for this ad.

Florida and Iowa have led the way in the fight to preserve and defend freedom — and @RonDeSantis is running for president to take that fight to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Governor DeSantis is working hard to earn the nomination — there is no substitute for victory. Let's do this,… pic.twitter.com/T1Yj5ruA1B

— Team DeSantis (@TeamDeSantis) July 13, 2023

---

RDS needs to try harder, according to recent poll results that are consistent with others. Since FL is a primary winner-take-all delegates state, the 125 delegates to the RNC is a very formidable number. Getting smoked in his home state could produce the same sudden death outcome experienced by Rubio and Jeb Bush. However, nothing that happens in politics should surprise anyone in these times. It's a long time until votes are cast.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/622459-poll-donald-trump-leads-ron-desantis-by-20-among-florida-republicans/

FTA:
" Right now, it's Donald Trump's to lose.

/

Though some polls have shown DeSantis struggling with female voters compared to male voters, here the Governor actually performs marginally better with women here. He's down just 19 points with them, as compared to a 21-point deficit with men.

Meanwhile, different regions show radically different voter inclinations.
DeSantis actually has an edge in Duval (37% to 36%) and is competitive in Northwest Florida (down 45% to 41%) as well as Southwest Florida (down 37% to 35%). But in the Tampa area, DeSantis is down 56% to 31%. In the Orlando area, DeSantis trails 45% to 29%. And in Miami-Dade, where DeSantis just spoke at the Lincoln Day dinner this weekend, the Governor is down 70% to 11%.

/

Turning to income levels, Trump leads with all except for those respondents making $200,000 or more a year. With that group, DeSantis leads 39% to 25%.

/

Trump leads by 39 points with Hispanic voters and 26% among Black voters. He also leads by 27 points with White voters who haven't gone to college. But among White voters who did go to college, DeSantis leads marginally, 41% to 40%."

"The poll highlights Donald Trump's quite durable support. He does especially well with White working-class voters, who have consistently formed a steadfast base for the former President," said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science at FAU. "This persistent support continues to bolster Trump's strong and steady position within the party."

sharpdressedman said:

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TRM said:

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Good timing for this ad.

Florida and Iowa have led the way in the fight to preserve and defend freedom — and @RonDeSantis is running for president to take that fight to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Governor DeSantis is working hard to earn the nomination — there is no substitute for victory. Let's do this,… pic.twitter.com/T1Yj5ruA1B

— Team DeSantis (@TeamDeSantis) July 13, 2023

---

RDS needs to try harder, according to recent poll results that are consistent with others. Since FL is a primary winner-take-all delegates state, the 125 delegates to the RNC is a very formidable number. Getting smoked in his home state could produce the same sudden death outcome experienced by Rubio and Jeb Bush. However, nothing that happens in politics should surprise anyone in these times. It's a long time until votes are cast.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/622459-poll-donald-trump-leads-ron-desantis-by-20-among-florida-republicans/

FTA:
" Right now, it's Donald Trump's to lose.

/

Though some polls have shown DeSantis struggling with female voters compared to male voters, here the Governor actually performs marginally better with women here. He's down just 19 points with them, as compared to a 21-point deficit with men.

Meanwhile, different regions show radically different voter inclinations.
DeSantis actually has an edge in Duval (37% to 36%) and is competitive in Northwest Florida (down 45% to 41%) as well as Southwest Florida (down 37% to 35%). But in the Tampa area, DeSantis is down 56% to 31%. In the Orlando area, DeSantis trails 45% to 29%. And in Miami-Dade, where DeSantis just spoke at the Lincoln Day dinner this weekend, the Governor is down 70% to 11%.

/

Turning to income levels, Trump leads with all except for those respondents making $200,000 or more a year. With that group, DeSantis leads 39% to 25%.

/

Trump leads by 39 points with Hispanic voters and 26% among Black voters. He also leads by 27 points with White voters who haven't gone to college. But among White voters who did go to college, DeSantis leads marginally, 41% to 40%."

"The poll highlights Donald Trump's quite durable support. He does especially well with White working-class voters, who have consistently formed a steadfast base for the former President," said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science at FAU. "This persistent support continues to bolster Trump's strong and steady position within the party."

---

Once again, the polls mean very little at this point and especially trying to do an in depth analysis of them.

For an example of why this is take a look at the big stories out there. You know what you don't hear? Anything about this race. Even most of the major conservative Podcasters are barely mentioning it and if they are they certainly aren't breaking down where the candidates stand on issues or the day to day ups and downs. It's high level at best.

In a few months that's going to shift. People will start to pay attention and start to think about who they really want as the nominee and to be President. Trump absolutely has some big advantages and is the lead horse but that can all evaporate and a lot faster than most people realize. This isn't 2016 or 2020, almost nothing about it is similar to those races (unless you are talking about a General of Trump v Biden but this is about the Primary). As I have stated repeatedly this mirrors Hillary v Obama the most. That doesn't mean DeSantis wins but it does mean he is spending his time building bridges, raising money, hitting the ground hard, and making sure he has a huge amount of money he can go big with when the time is right. Will it be enough? No idea but I do know that a poll in July of 2023 has little impact on who will be the eventual winner. BTW, Trump's campaign has a lot in common with Hillary in that race. Presumptive favorite, 100% name ID, tons of endorsements and the party machinery behind her. Then Obama hit her. Then he hit her again. Once she realized she was really in a dogfight she started to sound tired and desperate up against a newcomer with a fresh perspective.

Putting out a story every couple of days that says "I don't know, DeSantis really needs to make his move!" at this point in the campaign either shows ignorance of elections or ill intent. That said I expect I will be making similar posts for the next several months as this race isn't likely to shift much anytime soon.

TRM said:

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Good timing for this ad.

Florida and Iowa have led the way in the fight to preserve and defend freedom — and @RonDeSantis is running for president to take that fight to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Governor DeSantis is working hard to earn the nomination — there is no substitute for victory. Let's do this,… pic.twitter.com/T1Yj5ruA1B

— Team DeSantis (@TeamDeSantis) July 13, 2023

---

it really is going to come down to Iowa

if Ron can manage a win in Iowa it will be shocking to most GOP voters across the nation

it will be groundbreaking and destroy the only strategy the Trumpists have which is

"oh Trump will win!! no bothering to even vote!! we don't need any strategy or plans!"

(which will be their general election strategy as well)

Over the past 30 years, Republicans have nominated the runner-up during the previous Republican primary (when not featuring a GOP incumbent) three times.

Of these, Bob Dole won 30 percent of the electoral vote in 1996 (losing by 220 electoral votes), John McCain won 32 percent in 2008 (losing by 192), and Mitt Romney won 38 percent in 2012 (losing by 126). Only once during this stretch have the Democrats nominated last time's loser: Hillary Clinton, who won 42 percent of the electoral vote in 2016 (losing by 77).

Meantime, the two parties have combined to nominate four candidates over that span who weren't last time's loser and hadn't previously been elected as president or vice president. Among such "new blood" candidates, George W. Bush won 50.4 percent of the electoral vote in 2000, John Kerry won 47 percent in 2004, Barack Obama won 68 percent in 2008, and Donald Trump won 57 percent in 2016.

In sum, new blood candidates have three wins to one loss over the past three decades (winning an average of 56 percent of the electoral vote), while last time's losers have zero wins and four losses (winning an average of 36 percent).

When they nominate last time's loser, however, at least Democrats don't generally pick someone who has already been rejected by the general electorate.

This is a tremendous "Inside Baseball" look into the DeSantis campaign that explains a lot of what I have been arguing. It really is a strategy and there is a lot of reasoning as to why they are operating the way they are. BTW, virtually everything DeSantis is doing is EXACTLY what the Democrats have done ever since Obama's campaign in '08. Ground game, micro targeted ads, strategic appearances. It's very different from the big event, consultant driven, large advertising approach. It's a big reason why Republicans don't understand where Democrat support comes from because Republicans simply don't see it outside of stuff like the "Beto calls".

Built on Muscle

Quote:

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Donuts for Iowa lawmakers. A 99-county pastor recruitment plan. An in-house marketing department outpacing competitors on Facebook.

Seven weeks after launch, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's presidential campaign is entering a new phase of its online outreach and ground game all of it fueled by his $20 million fundraising quarter, the largest haul of any first-time Republican White House hopeful in more than a decade.

"We're not built on sugar highs," Generra Peck, DeSantis's campaign manager, told The Messenger.

"We're built on muscle that remains even amid the inevitable ups and downs that happen in the course of the campaign."

At its center: the campaign's in-house marketing team that has created and algorithmically message-tested 14,000 ads and related variations on Facebook and other social media platforms to curry supporters and convert them into donors and voters. The operation displays a level of "sophistication" that other campaigns currently aren't showing, one independent Republican digital guru told The Messenger.

DeSantis, who has so far limited most interviews to conservative press, is preparing for more sit-downs soon with more mainstream media outlets with which he has had a strained relationship. He's also planning more policy proposals, including on the economy and inflation, a top concern of voters.

---

Quote:

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In the past month, Facebook's ad library shows DeSantis and his campaign have posted 2,323 separate creative items. In a distant second are two primary rivals, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (who has 602 pieces up) and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (561). Trump is in eighth in terms of creative pieces on Facebook, with 189.

Eric Wilson, a top Republican digital strategist who isn't allied with any of the candidates or campaigns, said he was impressed with the "sophistication" of the DeSantis campaign's research and data, which appeared to be a successor to Trump's cutting edge 2016 efforts on Facebook that he has since let go.

"They're doing more ad testing than any other campaign and they're going to get smarter quicker. It's impressive that they can generate all this creative [work]," Wilson said. "What it tells me is that their heads are down and they're working hard and learning and focusing on what matters most and not on the silly season. What we're judging the campaign on right now is vibes on Twitter."

---

Quote:

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The China land-buying issue, a law DeSantis passed and that has been challenged in court in Florida, had eight separate creative variations targeted to various select audiences, creating nearly 130 unique data points the campaign studied. In the seven weeks since launch, the campaign says it has run nearly 30 separate creative "programs" like this with 256 separate creative variations, and 424 separate pieces of ad copy sent to people in 65 unique communities or audiences.


In fundraising solicitations, the DeSantis campaign has also emphasized that they're not trying to guilt-trip donors into giving nor are they lying to them the way Trump's campaign has in the past.

The DeSantis camp also decided not to hire outside firms for digital work but instead to recruit everyone in house so there were no conflicts of interest between vendors pushing for bigger portions of the budget solely to enrich their respective companies.

"We wanted true believers who were here for the right reasons," said Ethan Eilon, head of the DeSantis digital department. "We wanted to run a shop where the incentives were aligned with the mission."

---

I sure as hell hope it works. He's been successful in the past and we need him to be successful this time. I don't see any other candidate that can create the change he has

The Banned said:

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I sure as hell hope it works. He's been successful in the past and we need him to be successful this time. I don't see any other candidate that can create the change he has

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It's really the only strategy that has a chance. He can't try to out Trump Trump by being loud and controversial and trying to have big events. All that would do is make him look like a lesser copy and it would be out of character for him.

The real message is DeSantis is running his campaign his way and with his style. Focused, disciplined, with lots of funding and lots of hard work. It may or may not work but it certainly has worked for Democrats. It's eerily similar to Obama in 2008 but Trump is different than Hillary. I honestly think if the indictments weren't happening that DeSantis might be leading right now. For people only casually paying attention the indictments are drowning out all the other noise in the campaign.

I hope he begins to push more on his economic platform issues and less on the cultural ones to attract more GOP moderates into the tent. The nation wants a better economy.

agz win said:

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I hope he begins to push more on his economic platform issues and less on the cultural ones to attract more GOP moderates into the tent. The nation wants a better economy.

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agz win said:

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I hope he begins to push more on his economic platform issues and less on the cultural ones to attract more GOP moderates into the tent. The nation wants a better economy.

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The culture stuff is what wins moderates, not economics. HTH.

shack009 said:

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agz win said:

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I hope he begins to push more on his economic platform issues and less on the cultural ones to attract more GOP moderates into the tent. The nation wants a better economy.

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The culture stuff is what wins moderates, not economics. HTH.

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No it doesn't.

Signed,

The Queen of Concerned Moderates

Anecdote. Youngkin is the governor of Virginia because of culture stuff and DeSantis won Florida by 20 points in 2020 because of the culture. He won Florida by 30,000 votes in 2016 because of economics.

$$ is moving over to Scott and potentially Christie.

Christie slays the dragon and Scott steps in with his more positive message. (he does need to watch messaging 52 week pregnancies unless he's referring to a horse).

DeSantis is a robot. He's done. Donors are retreating in droves.

Im Gipper said:

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Clay has a twitter poll currently where given choice of RFKjr or Pence, 74% pick RFKjr!

Not exactly a conservative group of followers! This guy took Rush's place? Sad!

---

MAGA is not your father's Wm. F. Buckley conservatism. Trump has conditioned his minions to believe in conspiracy theories, many of them far left leftovers from the 60s and 70s (anti-vax, anti free trade).

DukeMu said:

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$$ is moving over to Scott and potentially Christie.

Christie slays the dragon and Scott steps in with his more positive message. (he does need to watch messaging 52 week pregnancies unless he's referring to a horse).

DeSantis is a robot. He's done. Donors are retreating in droves.

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Got any numbers on that? Or just based off of some individual donor reports? Everything I have seen says DS is pulling in the most monetary support of any candidate. I like Scott, too, but he's got to triple his support to match him in the polls.

DukeMu said:

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$$ is moving over to Scott and potentially Christie.

Christie slays the dragon and Scott steps in with his more positive message. (he does need to watch messaging 52 week pregnancies unless he's referring to a horse).

DeSantis is a robot. He's done. Donors are retreating in droves.

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No they aren't, hth. There are a few big donors backing multiple horses but most of the br ad pub is coming from Trump world (hoping you won't look at their numbers closely) and Democrats. DeSantis is the only real threat and they are treating him appropriately.

Trump will never stop his fight and has superpowers to activate a horde of LIV NPCs to amass enough overwhelming vote to bury the criminal vote fraud. DeSantis not connecting to the undercurrent of deficient minds that bring a riptide of vote.

You molested 81MM* need to buy a Trump doll and work out the scruples from the mirage of Trump abuse.

Get well soon, THEN GET ON THE TRAIN.

TRADUCTOR said:

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Trump will never stop his fight and has superpowers to activate a horde of LIV NPCs to amass enough overwhelming vote to bury the criminal vote fraud. DeSantis not connecting to the undercurrent of deficient minds that bring a riptide of vote.

You molested 81MM* need to buy a Trump doll and work out the scruples from the mirage of Trump abuse.

Get well soon, THEN GET ON THE TRAIN.

---

Anyone have a translator?

Phatbob said:

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DukeMu said:

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$$ is moving over to Scott and potentially Christie.

Christie slays the dragon and Scott steps in with his more positive message. (he does need to watch messaging 52 week pregnancies unless he's referring to a horse).

DeSantis is a robot. He's done. Donors are retreating in droves.

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Got any numbers on that? Or just based off of some individual donor reports? Everything I have seen says DS is pulling in the most monetary support of any candidate. I like Scott, too, but he's got to triple his support to match him in the polls.

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He's a hit and run leftist poster so ignore him.

Phatbob said:

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DukeMu said:

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$$ is moving over to Scott and potentially Christie.

Christie slays the dragon and Scott steps in with his more positive message. (he does need to watch messaging 52 week pregnancies unless he's referring to a horse).

DeSantis is a robot. He's done. Donors are retreating in droves.

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Got any numbers on that? Or just based off of some individual donor reports? Everything I have seen says DS is pulling in the most monetary support of any candidate. I like Scott, too, but he's got to triple his support to match him in the polls.

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Christie isn't a serious candidate and Scott is running for VP or just to raise his image. DeSantis already has a massive war chest and is doing just fine in fundraising, he's so far ahead of everyone else in that capacity it isn't even a contest. Trump is well below half and everyone else is well below that.