FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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Why does everything have to be an overarching scheme to reach this exact point? It's just pivoting to the best options you have given the circumstances and what is working. It's adjusting at halftime. They can do a shotgun approach and see what sticks. I don't see why they wouldn't give it a go and see if they can get a W out of it, just like with these indictments. They lose nothing in the attempt.

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I don't disagree with you...but that also goes toward my point...

Contrary to what some think is true, it is my opinion that this, as you phrased it..."shotgun approach to see what they can get to stick" is proof that they are actually worried about him being the nominee...anything the establishment can do to prevent him being the nominee, they will try to do...it's easier than having to rig another election...

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And I think there is a wrinkle in the "if they do it to Trump, they will do it to anyone" thought. I'm pretty sure they are already trying that.

All. The. Time.

They have just only been able to get it off the ground with Trump. Just the consequences of how he operates.

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I don't disagree with you nor do I think Trump does himself any favors with how he reacts...

BUT...

That doesn't mean he actually committed any crimes...

I'm reading today about these hand written notes from Pence about conversations he allegedly had with Trump leading up to the election certification, and I'm sorry, but there is simply no way you can convict someone on a felony over someone else's hand written notes, with no chain of custody, etc...

Besides the fact, he didn't order Pence to do anything as per Pence's own notes...he allegedly chastised him, but he didn't actually order him to commit a crime...

It won't matter due to the courts which will be trying these cases...Trump quite literally can't win in those courtrooms... But if this was you or I, a criminal court would laugh at his "evidence"...

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I agree, but legally they just need to get some jury to interpret what he was doing as nefarious. It's not going to be too hard to convince a group of liberals on a jury that it was. They already think he is "dangerous to democracy". That is an unfortunate side effect of Trump the a-hole. This is how "mean tweets" finally comes back to bite him in the ass.

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People think the media, D's, and establishment "want Trump to be the nominee because he will be easy to defeat in a [fair] election"... I disagree... I think they know defeating him in a [fair] election will be astronomically difficult, and THAT is why they are hammering him now...so that he can't continue running...

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If you believe the wildly unsubstantiated claims of fraud that have been laughed out of every courtroom they've been presented to, then sure. Now that people from Trump's own team have testified it wasn't stolen that's going to continue to be a tough point to make. On the other hand, if you are operating under the logical assumption that any actual voter fraud (not referencing the Hunter Biden laptop stuff which was incredibly shady) was nowhere close to impacting the final election and he lost because he's an unlikeable, divisive idiot who has only doubled down on what made him lose in 2020, then the Dems would be insane to not do everything they can to prop him up in the primary.

The media is another thing all together. They are only propping him up for ratings/clicks.

FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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Why does everything have to be an overarching scheme to reach this exact point? It's just pivoting to the best options you have given the circumstances and what is working. It's adjusting at halftime. They can do a shotgun approach and see what sticks. I don't see why they wouldn't give it a go and see if they can get a W out of it, just like with these indictments. They lose nothing in the attempt.

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I don't disagree with you...but that also goes toward my point...

Contrary to what some think is true, it is my opinion that this, as you phrased it..."shotgun approach to see what they can get to stick" is proof that they are actually worried about him being the nominee...anything the establishment can do to prevent him being the nominee, they will try to do...it's easier than having to rig another election...

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And I think there is a wrinkle in the "if they do it to Trump, they will do it to anyone" thought. I'm pretty sure they are already trying that.

All. The. Time.

They have just only been able to get it off the ground with Trump. Just the consequences of how he operates.

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I don't disagree with you nor do I think Trump does himself any favors with how he reacts...

BUT...

That doesn't mean he actually committed any crimes...

I'm reading today about these hand written notes from Pence about conversations he allegedly had with Trump leading up to the election certification, and I'm sorry, but there is simply no way you can convict someone on a felony over someone else's hand written notes, with no chain of custody, etc...

Besides the fact, he didn't order Pence to do anything as per Pence's own notes...he allegedly chastised him, but he didn't actually order him to commit a crime...

It won't matter due to the courts which will be trying these cases...Trump quite literally can't win in those courtrooms... But if this was you or I, a criminal court would laugh at his "evidence"...

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I agree, but legally they just need to get some jury to interpret what he was doing as nefarious. It's not going to be too hard to convince a group of liberals on a jury that it was. They already think he is "dangerous to democracy". That is an unfortunate side effect of Trump the a-hole. This is how "mean tweets" finally comes back to bite him in the ass.

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I don't disagree with you, but as red-blooded American, I am categorically against throwing someone in prison just because he's a jerk on social media...

If you're going to prison for a felony, there needs to be an actual crime committed...

Thing is, in the end, Trump probably gets these eventual "convictions" overturned on appeal...but the end goal isn't to put him in prison...the end goal is to keep him from getting elected, and in that vein, they hope to do so by making it illegal for him to run (as a convicted felon)...

If Trump was "so terribly unelectable in a truly fair election", then why the need to go through all of this if they weren't actually afraid of him getting re-elected in an election that was fair?

People have been throwing around "kangaroo court" and "banana republic"...that exactly what this is...

They truly don't think they have what it takes to steal it twice (or, at the very least, they know it will be infinitely harder to pull it off a second time)...

People think the media, D's, and establishment "want Trump to be the nominee because he will be easy to defeat in a [fair] election"... I disagree... I think they know defeating him in a [fair] election will be astronomically difficult, and THAT is why they are hammering him now...so that he can't continue running...

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I really don't think they are "afraid" of him getting elected over any other Republican, this is more of an insurance policy. If you are worried about raccoons in your attic, you don't just cover up 1 hole and hope they don't get through some other way, you do everything in your power to keep any one of them out, including trapping them. Well, they trapped one.

This is a whole slew of people with a LOT to lose trying to cover one of their bases.

ETA: I completely disagree that this changes ANYONES mind about Trump. His support/opposition was solidified years ago. This will change nothing except make people want the circus to go away.

Phatbob said:

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TRM said:

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Eager for new leadership, New Hampshire Republicans welcome Ron DeSantis’ visit to Concord

“I think DeSantis is the future.”https://t.co/SaLeo74jts

— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 2, 2023

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I loved the "Get **** Done" mug he was using last week. I feel like that should be his campaign slogan.

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That will offend some voters. i wouldn't make it front and centered. He should eat some apple pie with it, too.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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The Dems would be insane to not do everything they can to prop him up in the primary.

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And convicting him of felonies and placing him in prison is how you think they are "propping him up"?

I just don't believe that's the case...

If it were that easy, just let him play the part of the fool and turn people off even more...

I believe there are internal polling numbers that show Trump is stronger than a lot of folks on here are willing to recognize...

And please understand...I think DeSantis is the most in-line with what I believe and want for America...I just don't think he's been able to resonate with the masses...why? Trump steals all of the air out of the room...

At the end of the day though, whether one agrees that 2020 was stolen or they agree that it was a fair game...it's meaningless...you can't go back in time to fix 2020...

But none of that changes one thing... If you want DeSantis to win the general, he needs to win the R nomination, and thus, I believe that DeSantis needs to perform better and start taking more air from the room... Right now...Trump still owns all of the air (as I have mentioned, the lead story on a R debate where Trump no-shows won't be all of the great things DeSantis said...the headline will still be "Trump No-Shows Debate")... I want to see DeSantis change that, and from my seat, I see a guy who is losing ground in the primary to the guy who steals the headlines...

If DeSantis wants to win the R nomination, he needs to change the paradigm...

Phatbob said:

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I really don't think they are "afraid" of him getting elected over any other Republican, this is more of an insurance policy. If you are worried about raccoons in your attic, you don't just cover up 1 hole and hope they don't get through some other way, you do everything in your power to keep any one of them out, including trapping them. Well, they trapped one.

This is a whole slew of people with a LOT to lose trying to cover one of their bases.

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And while I agree they are trying to cover their bases, I think they have turned up the heat because his numbers continue to improve and they really are worried about him making it through...

As I have said multiple times...if this were a different time in our history, I'm not sure Trump would still be here...

FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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The Dems would be insane to not do everything they can to prop him up in the primary.

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And convicting him of felonies and placing him in prison is how you think they are "propping him up"?

I just don't believe that's the case...

If it were that easy, just let him play the part of the fool and turn people off even more...

I believe there are internal polling numbers that show Trump is stronger than a lot of folks on here are willing to recognize...

And please understand...I think DeSantis is the most in-line with what I believe and want for America...I just don't think he's been able to resonate with the masses...why? Trump steals all of the air out of the room...

At the end of the day though, whether one agrees that 2020 was stolen or they agree that it was a fair game...it's meaningless...you can't go back in time to fix 2020...

But none of that changes one thing... If you want DeSantis to win the general, he needs to win the R nomination, and thus, I believe that DeSantis needs to perform better and start taking more air from the room... Right now...Trump still owns all of the air (as I have mentioned, the lead story on a R debate where Trump no-shows won't be all of the great things DeSantis said...the headline will still be "Trump No-Shows Debate")... I want to see DeSantis change that, and from my seat, I see a guy who is losing ground in the primary to the guy who steals the headlines...

If DeSantis wants to win the R nomination, he needs to change the paradigm...

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So you don't think being indicted multiple times that has coincided with Trump's rise in the polls has anything to do with the indictments? Do you think it is Trump's brilliant messaging for the future? Seriously? There is no question Trump has gotten a HUGE benefit from the indictments from a support perspective.

That's also part of your second question. You are setting up a false equivalency. DeSantis is not going to be able to grab headlines from Trump when Trump is on his 3rd Indictment (with more to come) with the stories on both sides of that and part of the issues being what DeSantis' response are to those indictments. Do you think DeSantis can get the press to ignore Trump being arrested over and over again?

That's why I keep cautioning you not to get so caught up in these national polls today. Honestly fatigue from the indictments is showing signs of setting in as well even if it isn't necessarily reflected in the polls. It is coming up more and more in interviews with voters. Even if people sympathize with Trump at some point they know this is about winning and there are only so many anchors you can tie to Trump before he sinks. His money has already shown it is on fumes and he is about to be under a lot more financial pressure with more lawsuits.

Read that NH article as well and especially towards the end. It talks about the lady who has already met 7 of the candidates and how important it is to people in NH to have someone who is available. Iowa is the same way. Trump isn't even making a half hearted effort to do that. There are signs all over on the trail that folks there are wavering, people in those states really do look at the candidates and bigger picture. I will say this, if either Trump or DeSantis win both Iowa and NH whomever is victorious is going to be very hard to stop. DeSantis has bet big there so he needs to win. Trump has the stronger national base and has the inevitability thing going for him so if he wins he's going to be hard to stop but if he loses that inevitability is shattered. If they split the 2 then we are in for a lengthy dogfight.

It's just a looong way off and I think time favors DeSantis more than Trump, especially with his bank account.

FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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The Dems would be insane to not do everything they can to prop him up in the primary.

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And convicting him of felonies and placing him in prison is how you think they are "propping him up"?

I just don't believe that's the case...

If it were that easy, just let him play the part of the fool and turn people off even more...

I believe there are internal polling numbers that show Trump is stronger than a lot of folks on here are willing to recognize...

And please understand...I think DeSantis is the most in-line with what I believe and want for America...I just don't think he's been able to resonate with the masses...why? Trump steals all of the air out of the room...

At the end of the day though, whether one agrees that 2020 was stolen or they agree that it was a fair game...it's meaningless...you can't go back in time to fix 2020...

But none of that changes one thing... If you want DeSantis to win the general, he needs to win the R nomination, and thus, I believe that DeSantis needs to perform better and start taking more air from the room... Right now...Trump still owns all of the air (as I have mentioned, the lead story on a R debate where Trump no-shows won't be all of the great things DeSantis said...the headline will still be "Trump No-Shows Debate")... I want to see DeSantis change that, and from my seat, I see a guy who is losing ground in the primary to the guy who steals the headlines...

If DeSantis wants to win the R nomination, he needs to change the paradigm...

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From my posts earlier in the thread, from their perspective I think it's probably 20% point 1 and 80% point 2, especially in the Georgia case that's still coming.

Quote:

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My opinion - 2 items that can both be true to varying degrees:

1. Every time they charge him his polling and fundraising numbers go up, increasing the likelihood he wins the primary.

2. They think they can convict him because they are convinced he broke the law

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As for DeSantis, for the 500th time we are half a year away from the first primary and you're massively overvaluing the current polls. Trump may even run out of money on his own by then, and DeSantis is not an attention grabbing circus clown like Trump is and he never will be. He's a pragmatic tactician running an extremely well organized campaign and it does nothing for him to pretend like he's anything else.

If you're looking for a t-shirt to wear or a sign to bring to the next rally....

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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The Dems would be insane to not do everything they can to prop him up in the primary.

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And convicting him of felonies and placing him in prison is how you think they are "propping him up"?

I just don't believe that's the case...

If it were that easy, just let him play the part of the fool and turn people off even more...

I believe there are internal polling numbers that show Trump is stronger than a lot of folks on here are willing to recognize...

And please understand...I think DeSantis is the most in-line with what I believe and want for America...I just don't think he's been able to resonate with the masses...why? Trump steals all of the air out of the room...

At the end of the day though, whether one agrees that 2020 was stolen or they agree that it was a fair game...it's meaningless...you can't go back in time to fix 2020...

But none of that changes one thing... If you want DeSantis to win the general, he needs to win the R nomination, and thus, I believe that DeSantis needs to perform better and start taking more air from the room... Right now...Trump still owns all of the air (as I have mentioned, the lead story on a R debate where Trump no-shows won't be all of the great things DeSantis said...the headline will still be "Trump No-Shows Debate")... I want to see DeSantis change that, and from my seat, I see a guy who is losing ground in the primary to the guy who steals the headlines...

If DeSantis wants to win the R nomination, he needs to change the paradigm...

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Read that NH article as well and especially towards the end. It talks about the lady who has already met 7 of the candidates and how important it is to people in NH to have someone who is available. Iowa is the same way. Trump isn't even making a half hearted effort to do that. There are signs all over on the trail that folks there are wavering, people in those states really do look at the candidates and bigger picture. I will say this, if either Trump or DeSantis win both Iowa and NH whomever is victorious is going to be very hard to stop. DeSantis has bet big there so he needs to win. Trump has the stronger national base and has the inevitability thing going for him so if he wins he's going to be hard to stop but if he loses that inevitability is shattered. If they split the 2 then we are in for a lengthy dogfight.

It's just a looong way off and I think time favors DeSantis more than Trump, especially with his bank account.

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I mean...I think it's great that one reporter talked to one lady and got that story out of her in New Hampshire...

But RCP averages are showing the same things as 538 averages...


But let me ask you this...

Let's say that, for the sake of argument, you're right about the polls...

Are you thinking the two R candidates are significantly closer than the polling numbers indicate? I'm willing to concede that Trump might be less than 33 points ahead in Iowa, but I think he's, at worst, in the high 20's ahead (and yes, I am sure that some more staunch Trump advocates would argue his numbers are closer to +40)...

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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As for DeSantis, for the 500th time we are half a year away from the first primary and you're massively overvaluing the current polls. Trump may even run out of money on his own by then, and DeSantis is not an attention grabbing circus clown like Trump is and he never will be. He's a pragmatic tactician running an extremely well organized campaign and it does nothing for him to pretend like he's anything else.

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If I'm in the DeSantis camp, I am hoping Trump runs out of money, but even better for my chances to win the R nomination, I am hoping for something that will disqualify him...

I do agree with others who have alluded to a brokered convention being a disaster for Rs...I agree...and I agree because I do not believe the delegates would be able to come to a consensus on the winner...

FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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The Dems would be insane to not do everything they can to prop him up in the primary.

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And convicting him of felonies and placing him in prison is how you think they are "propping him up"?

I just don't believe that's the case...

If it were that easy, just let him play the part of the fool and turn people off even more...

I believe there are internal polling numbers that show Trump is stronger than a lot of folks on here are willing to recognize...

And please understand...I think DeSantis is the most in-line with what I believe and want for America...I just don't think he's been able to resonate with the masses...why? Trump steals all of the air out of the room...

At the end of the day though, whether one agrees that 2020 was stolen or they agree that it was a fair game...it's meaningless...you can't go back in time to fix 2020...

But none of that changes one thing... If you want DeSantis to win the general, he needs to win the R nomination, and thus, I believe that DeSantis needs to perform better and start taking more air from the room... Right now...Trump still owns all of the air (as I have mentioned, the lead story on a R debate where Trump no-shows won't be all of the great things DeSantis said...the headline will still be "Trump No-Shows Debate")... I want to see DeSantis change that, and from my seat, I see a guy who is losing ground in the primary to the guy who steals the headlines...

If DeSantis wants to win the R nomination, he needs to change the paradigm...

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Look,you are a good poster I agree with you 99% historically but here you have it all wrong.

Trumps not stealing headline, They are given to him, The last thing the MSM wants to do is focus on the other candidates, especially Desantis. The 'air' in the room is controlled by a corrupt propaganda cabol based out of New York. It has nothing to do with DeSantis's 'performance'. DeSantis is wise to build his war chest. Then concentrate on a handful of states which are still way off. Meanwhile let Trump Hemorrhage money then hit em hard with paid advertising and debates. This early stuff is not near as important as you think it is.

Spot on... build you base, grow your brand, and hoard your cash until the time is right to unleash hell. Then have the monetary power to own the airwaves when it counts.

FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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J. Walter Weatherman said:

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The Dems would be insane to not do everything they can to prop him up in the primary.

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And convicting him of felonies and placing him in prison is how you think they are "propping him up"?

I just don't believe that's the case...

If it were that easy, just let him play the part of the fool and turn people off even more...

I believe there are internal polling numbers that show Trump is stronger than a lot of folks on here are willing to recognize...

And please understand...I think DeSantis is the most in-line with what I believe and want for America...I just don't think he's been able to resonate with the masses...why? Trump steals all of the air out of the room...

At the end of the day though, whether one agrees that 2020 was stolen or they agree that it was a fair game...it's meaningless...you can't go back in time to fix 2020...

But none of that changes one thing... If you want DeSantis to win the general, he needs to win the R nomination, and thus, I believe that DeSantis needs to perform better and start taking more air from the room... Right now...Trump still owns all of the air (as I have mentioned, the lead story on a R debate where Trump no-shows won't be all of the great things DeSantis said...the headline will still be "Trump No-Shows Debate")... I want to see DeSantis change that, and from my seat, I see a guy who is losing ground in the primary to the guy who steals the headlines...

If DeSantis wants to win the R nomination, he needs to change the paradigm...

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Read that NH article as well and especially towards the end. It talks about the lady who has already met 7 of the candidates and how important it is to people in NH to have someone who is available. Iowa is the same way. Trump isn't even making a half hearted effort to do that. There are signs all over on the trail that folks there are wavering, people in those states really do look at the candidates and bigger picture. I will say this, if either Trump or DeSantis win both Iowa and NH whomever is victorious is going to be very hard to stop. DeSantis has bet big there so he needs to win. Trump has the stronger national base and has the inevitability thing going for him so if he wins he's going to be hard to stop but if he loses that inevitability is shattered. If they split the 2 then we are in for a lengthy dogfight.

It's just a looong way off and I think time favors DeSantis more than Trump, especially with his bank account.

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I mean...I think it's great that one reporter talked to one lady and got that story out of her in New Hampshire...

But RCP averages are showing the same things as 538 averages...


But let me ask you this...

Let's say that, for the sake of argument, you're right about the polls...

Are you thinking the two R candidates are significantly closer than the polling numbers indicate? I'm willing to concede that Trump might be less than 33 points ahead in Iowa, but I think he's, at worst, in the high 20's ahead (and yes, I am sure that some more staunch Trump advocates would argue his numbers are closer to +40)...

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I am very mistrustful of some of the Iowa and NH polls as an average, state polling is really hard and very easy to manipulate. When you are talking about Iowa it's even worse as a Caucus state. It's all about getting people that will show up on a January night and cast for you. Good luck polling them accurately. Remember that in the very last poll prior to Iowa Trump had an 11 point lead over Cruz and ended up losing handily.

Iowa and NH polling also have a history of shifting wildly in the weeks immediately prior to the voting.

I'm not saying those polls are irrelevant. I just think they are a data point. If Trump had that kind of lead and there wasn't such a massive disparity in funding and ground game I would feel very differently. For instance DeSantis is going to be in a position where he can dump $50 million on Iowa or NH in the last couple of weeks without flinching and that is after literally knocking on the door of every potential GOP voter in the state likely 4 or 5 times in many cases. On the flip side Trump has almost no one in those states working and what he does have is mostly volunteers. He's very likely going to have no money for a last minute push. It's also traditional that the Governors of those states don't endorse but it is blatantly obvious that Reynolds and Sununu are in the DeSantis camp and they have appeared with him often. These are 2 VERY popular GOP Governors who wield considerable power there. That doesn't count the State Leg endorsements that also favor DeSantis.

BTW the example of the lady in NH is VERY common. People in Iowa and NH expect to have their ass kissed and for candidates to show up at coffee shops and ask for their vote. In Iowa they definitely appreciate the bus tour "visit all 99 counties" thing. There are 3 million people in Iowa and about 1.3 in NH. They just aren't the same as other places. They take tremendous pride in being the first states to vote and just act very differently than anywhere else.

Now after that it goes to South Carolina and Nevada and those are different beasts as well but by that time you have the results from Iowa and NH dominating the news cycles. I think Trump is very strong in SC but NV is harder to say. Once again though it's a very different tale depending on the state of the race at that point. Could easily be effectively 2 person by then or Trump or DeSantis could be riding massive momentum.

Promise I am not trying to just make excuses just trying to explain what I mean by "Data Points". Obviously I am a DeSantis guy as well and admit I have a bias. I just also know how these things go and there are so many factors that are unusual in this cycle. I can't really think of an example where where you had a high Name ID pseudo incumbent who is cash poor and has no ground game against an up and comer with big money and ground game where the polls looked like this. The Hillary/Obama contest is the closest one and in that Hillary led until around December when Obama took his first lead in Iowa but Hillary was still very strong nationally and up 20 or so points (she had been up by 30 plus). Hillary had a big money edge on Obama but Obama had a great ground game. Even December is a LONG way from now. The indictment stuff makes it a completely different situation as well.

"I am very mistrustful of some of the .... polls"

All conservatives were 3 years ago. I didn't change.

Hear me out...because it's not that he has "a lead"...it's that he has a "huge lead" compared to polling as of this point in 2015...

Donald Trump first assumed the polling lead, in the RCP Iowa average in 2015 on August 4th, from what I can see...

Trump - 20.3
Walker - 18.7
Bush - 9.7
Carson - 7.0
Huckabee - 6.3
Cruz - 5.7

So that was an RCP average of Trump +1.6 over his closest competitor, but to be fair, Cruz won Iowa, and Trump was +14.6 over Cruz...

The final RCP average was Trump +4.7. and Cruz won +3.3...so that was an 8-point swing to Cruz on election day...

Nationally, the RCP average looked like this on August 4, 2015:

Trump - 23.2
Bush - 12.8
Walker - 10.6
Carson - 6.6
Huckabee - 6.6
Cruz - 6.2

So nationally, Trump was +10.4 at that time, while only being +1.6 in Iowa...

Fast forward to today...essentially the same amount of time from the Iowa Caucus as we were in 2015...

Trump is +35.8 in the RCP average nationally, and +33 in Iowa... Even if RCP is off and it swings by +8 for DeSantis, he still loses in Iowa, and it isn't even close... Even if we give the +8 error to him right now, DeSantis still needs a +25 point swing between now and January 15, 2024 to simply pull even...

Impossible? Of course not... Extremely high hurdle? Absolutely...unless something drastic happens to Trump... He has 5.5 months to erase at least a 25-pt lead in the poll by Trump...

I'm sorry, y'all...but that's a pretty tall order...

FireAg said:

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Hear me out...because it's not that he has "a lead"...it's that he has a "huge lead" compared to polling as of this point in 2015...

Donald Trump first assumed the polling lead, in the RCP Iowa average in 2015 on August 4th, from what I can see...

Trump - 20.3
Walker - 18.7
Bush - 9.7
Carson - 7.0
Huckabee - 6.3
Cruz - 5.7

So that was an RCP average of Trump +1.6 over his closest competitor, but to be fair, Cruz won Iowa, and Trump was +14.6 over Cruz...

The final RCP average was Trump +4.7. and Cruz won +3.3...so that was an 8-point swing to Cruz on election day...

Nationally, the RCP average looked like this on August 4, 2015:

Trump - 23.2
Bush - 12.8
Walker - 10.6
Carson - 6.6
Huckabee - 6.6
Cruz - 6.2

So nationally, Trump was +10.4 at that time, while only being +1.6 in Iowa...

Fast forward to today...essentially the same amount of time from the Iowa Caucus as we were in 2015...

Trump is +35.8 in the RCP average nationally, and +33 in Iowa... Even if RCP is off and it swings by +8 for DeSantis, he still loses in Iowa, and it isn't even close... Even if we give the +8 error to him right now, DeSantis still needs a +25 point swing between now and January 15, 2024 to simply pull even...

Impossible? Of course not... Extremely high hurdle? Absolutely...unless something drastic happens to Trump... He has 5.5 months to erase at least a 25-pt lead in the poll by Trump...

I'm sorry, y'all...but that's a pretty tall order...

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So you are showing me a poll of how Cruz was in 6th place with 6 percent of the vote in both Iowa and Nationally and ended up winning Iowa as proof that somehow polls matter at this point? Yeah, I just don't even know what to say to that.

Why did Cruz win? He visited 99 counties. He focused on ground game. Same with Obama against Hillary. Those were in races where they were at big money disadvantages.

I have recognized polls are a data point but by your own data they can shift DRASTICALLY and almost certainly will. If all are going to do is post polls and say "Trump is getting TV coverage" then that's fine but it likely won't shift much until December if history is a guide. I don't think national TV coverage matters much at all in those states. Money and ground game absolutely matter though, as do number of appearances.

Now please, please don't show me another poll as your only evidence. Or if you do I don't know what else to say. You literally showed by your own evidence how little they matter yet you are trying to still rely on them and only them and make them matter.

Again…it's not that Trump has a lead, bud…it's that he has a huge lead…

Assume at this date in 2015, the polling average was off by Cruz +8…that means that Trump's real lead then was actually +6.6 over Cruz…

His lead currently, with the same +8 deference to DeSantis is still +25 Trump with 5.5 months to the caucus…. He needs to erase ~5 pts per month just to draw even with Trump…

So between now and then, DeSantis needs to outperform Cruz in Iowa by nearly 4-fold just to be even…

It's not the lead, my friend…it's the magnitude of the lead that I see as the issue…

Outperform what Ted Cruz did in 2015 vs the same candidate by 4-fold in 5.5 months…

How pathetic!

The Trump campaign now trying to get organizations to not donate to Republicans based on a Kamala Harris smear… pic.twitter.com/btSjpxkzEu

— AG (@AGHamilton29) August 2, 2023

**** like that is disgusting.

Jason Miller admitted to scamming Trump supporters with the election fraud claims, while wearing a mask in a room by himself.

He is definitely the face of Trump 2024.

Old May Banker said:

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**** like that is disgusting.

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Desperation on behalf of the Trump campaign is what it is. That campaign's poker face is horrible.

And again, another attack from Trump/MAGA at DeSantis from the left.

Let's see if even one of our resident only Trumpers will condemn this or if they'll back Trump no matter how many lies he or his people tell.

Im Gipper said:

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How pathetic!

The Trump campaign now trying to get organizations to not donate to Republicans based on a Kamala Harris smear… pic.twitter.com/btSjpxkzEu

— AG (@AGHamilton29) August 2, 2023

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But trump is super conservative!!!!

Since this thread seems to have become the current de facto destination for all presidential campaign news, and this particular subject has been mentioned already several times, figured I'd post it here.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gavin-newsom-running-president-fundraising-183022705.html

Quote:

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Gov. Gavin Newsom is taking fundraising steps often used by potential presidential candidates, setting up multiple committees that in their first three months have raised and spent millions of dollars.

The three Newsom-affiliated committees are a political action committee, which limits contributions to $5,000 a year and can donate to individual candidates; a SuperPAC, which can raise unlimited amounts of cash but is restricted from promoting a specific candidate, and a joint fundraising committee, which functions like a bank, mostly collecting and distributing funds to the other groups

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Quote:

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Forming the trio of fundraising committees allows prospective candidates like Newsom to begin building a base of support and explore a run for federal office without saying it outright, according to Brendan Glavin, senior data analyst at Open Secrets.

"For someone who has an interest in launching a presidential campaign, these are the first steps you'd take," Glavin said. "I wouldn't say it's set in stone, but certainly you wouldn't do all of these things if you weren't thinking about it."

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Quote:

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Nathan Click, a campaign advisor for Newsom, flatly refuted that narrative and pointed to dozens of instances where the governor said he had no interest in the White House.

"That's not what this is about," Click said. "This is all about going deep into the reddest states and helping Democrats where they're on defense."

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Sure, sure. This is simply Newsome being a selfless team player and helping out fellow Democrats. I mean, gosh, Newsome swears himself he has no interest in running for President!

Newsom will do whatever the DNC tells him to do.

If they decide to immaculate him as Biden's successor, they will.

If they decide to go with Frau Whitmer, Newsom will be a good boy and go along with it.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Old May Banker said:

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**** like that is disgusting.

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Desperation on behalf of the Trump campaign is what it is. That campaign's poker face is horrible.

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Wait how can they be so desperate? Haven't they seen the polls??

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Old May Banker said:

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**** like that is disgusting.

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Desperation on behalf of the Trump campaign is what it is. That campaign's poker face is horrible.

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Trump acts just like he did in 2016 and 2020. If he wasn't trashing his biggest competition then that would be noteworthy. Seriously you notice desperation in atypical behavior not in the behavior we all know is trumps plan A and B. This isn't some great sign of the end yall hope it is.

texagbeliever said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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Old May Banker said:

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**** like that is disgusting.

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Desperation on behalf of the Trump campaign is what it is. That campaign's poker face is horrible.

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Trump acts just like he did in 2016 and 2020. If he wasn't trashing his biggest competition then that would be noteworthy. Seriously you notice desperation in atypical behavior not in the behavior we all know is trumps plan A and B. This isn't some great sign of the end yall hope it is.

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I don't think he did. He's specifically targeting conservative policies and successes. That was not trump last year. Trump bashing the person is fine. But bashing non-CRT curriculum, a heartbeat bill and more. That is not peak trump

Conservatives need to support Trump in the unjust treatment he's receiving and he needs to stop trashing them. No matter what happens, he needs them too.

The Banned said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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Old May Banker said:

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**** like that is disgusting.

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Desperation on behalf of the Trump campaign is what it is. That campaign's poker face is horrible.

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Trump acts just like he did in 2016 and 2020. If he wasn't trashing his biggest competition then that would be noteworthy. Seriously you notice desperation in atypical behavior not in the behavior we all know is trumps plan A and B. This isn't some great sign of the end yall hope it is.

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I don't think he did. He's specifically targeting conservative policies and successes. That was not trump last year. Trump bashing the person is fine. But bashing non-CRT curriculum, a heartbeat bill and more. That is not peak trump

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Trump attacked Cruz's wife. So it could be worse.

Old May Banker said:

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Conservatives need to support Trump in the unjust treatment he's receiving and he needs to stop trashing them. No matter what happens, he needs them too.

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I was just pointing out that this isn't a sign of the end like some were celebrating. I don't know if the fighter strategy is necessary for his persona or not. But that is more debatable.

FireAg said:

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I mean...I think it's great that one reporter talked to one lady and got that story out of her in New Hampshire...

But RCP averages are showing the same things as 538 averages...


But let me ask you this...

Let's say that, for the sake of argument, you're right about the polls...

Are you thinking the two R candidates are significantly closer than the polling numbers indicate? I'm willing to concede that Trump might be less than 33 points ahead in Iowa, but I think he's, at worst, in the high 20's ahead (and yes, I am sure that some more staunch Trump advocates would argue his numbers are closer to +40)...

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I'd like to see DeSantis above 20% in Iowa. That will mark him as the clear alternative and you will see those searching for the realistic alternative moving toward him.

If he loses ground on those numbers posted above, then he risks getting buried by a Trump on one side and Haley/Scott on the other when things reach South Carolina.

He needs an Ed Rollins or a Lee A****er in the worst way. As impressive as he is with his remarks and his interviews, his campaign does not move or think as fast on their feet as the man they are supposed to support with their efforts.

They let that "slavery" fraud go on far too long. That should have received an immediate response and it should not have taken DeSantis to put it forward.

Time to fix it and in Iowa much good work can be done on a retail level by the candidate himself.

But after that, your campaign has to be running as hard and fast as you are.

aggie93 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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And again, another attack from Trump/MAGA at DeSantis from the left.

Let's see if even one of our resident only Trumpers will condemn this or if they'll back Trump no matter how many lies he or his people tell.

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Remember the rule. DeSantis must be fair and respectful to Trump at all times if not full on supportive. Trump can lie and defame and do absolutely anything and say anything to DeSantis.

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Exactly you are catching on.