We are probably going to lose the next war with China

6,052 Views | 66 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Stmichael
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Dickdelaware said:

Stmichael said:

Far be it from me to get between Forum 16 and a gripe about how the end is nigh, but I've got a counter point.

China imports some 80% of their energy, the vast majority of which is shipped by oil tanker from the Middle East some 8000 miles away. For all China's hordes of people and rampant expansion of their navy, they still have not cracked the code on building or operating a navy with a range greater than a few hundred miles. Their navy is tailor made to invade Taiwan, and not much else.

This is a catastrophic vulnerability for China if any war were to break out. They would have no means of protecting the bulk of their energy supply. In less than a month, industry shuts down, and a month after that comes mass famine that kills hundreds of millions.
That presumes we'd try to shut down their energy/oil imports. Also, they are building more and more nuclear plants, in addition to coal (lot's from Australia), plus they import a bunch from Russia as well.

Any shooting war with China (whether over Taiwan or more broadly) would be so disruptive globally it would likely be over within a month/before in-country oil reserves would be depleted, likely. Global food supply/goods should take priority over anything else.


Of course we would go after their energy supply. If we don't, our generals and admirals aren't worth the air they breathe.

As for their coal, nuclear, etc capacity, that's good for keeping the lights and computers running. It's not particularly useful for things like making gasoline or petrochemicals. No oil means no tractors, no truck transportation, no planes, no navy, no fertilizer, etc.

What oil supplies they are capable of getting by Russian pipeline will allow them to either fight or eat, not both. Speaking of which, that Russian supply pales in comparison to the volumes possible by tanker. Especially since it is coming from the eastern Siberian oil fields which are very outdated and breaking down without specialist companies like Haliburton.

Edit: As for the level of disruption, the US is actually the most independent nation on the planet in terms of percent of GDP based on trade. It would hurt to suddenly lose trade with China, but we could easily manage. They, however, would not survive. They are entirely dependent on global trade.
one MEEN Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
China might be hard to actually take land from, but it would relatively easy to cut off their energy access. All of their shipping lanes have to go through countries that would oppose them.

It would be an interesting war. Tough to threaten to nuke everyone when you need them for trade.

Every developed country on earth would have an interest in telling China to knock it off, sign a peace deal, and keep the oil flowing in and the rare earth elements flowing out.
samurai_science
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Long as they Nuke Washington DC I can live with it.
Dimebag Darrell
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Thought this was pretty funny when I saw it yesterday. But true. Although, I would argue "hundreds", rather than just 25, or 50.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cr0vZAdAc38/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Gigem314
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
FratboyLegend said:

What is a kill chain and where do I get one?
It sounds like something you get playing COD or Halo for a killing streak.
Space-Tech
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ever had a friend that learned a new word, then for the next two weeks would try to ram it into every conversation?
PERSON - WOMAN - MAN - CAMERA - TV
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Any technology they develop will likely be stolen from us. They have plenty of their own internal problems, I just don't see them wanting to get in a fight with us . Their calculation will be what can we take and how far can we go without prompting an armed response. With this clown show administration that is probably pretty far.

As someone previously pointed out, they have other rivals more their own size that are more likely to keep them in check than we are at this time. Japan and India to name 2.
i-miss-the-republic
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Only policy wonks or REMFs use the phrase "kill chain".
Pizza
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Nobody knows what the actual outcome would be, but it wouldn't be pretty.

My concern is how badly the left has trashed this country with rhetoric. If it came down to it, and I had to fight & die for my country I'd do it without hesitation...I honestly believe that a huge chunk of the left in this country would hide under their bed & beg their new overlords for mercy.
AggieVictor10
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
With Xiden that is a feature not a bug
sleepybeagle
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Hide from what? They have no capability to get anywhere close to us with ground troops . They'd be sunk and their forces would die at sea.

They may be capable of nuking the west coast , I dunno. If they tried it'd be pretty damned ugly for their country and it'd be over in a few hours.

I just don't see a huge threat . Our big threat is within and the Chinese have been working on that for a long time.
ConstructionAg01
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Hardest working 2am poster in the business.
NavyAg92
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I'm not sure we could win a food fight in a middle school cafeteria with our current Commander in Chief. Dude would be eating pudding the whole time.
YouBet
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
one MEEN Ag said:

China might be hard to actually take land from, but it would relatively easy to cut off their energy access. All of their shipping lanes have to go through countries that would oppose them.

It would be an interesting war. Tough to threaten to nuke everyone when you need them for trade.

Every developed country on earth would have an interest in telling China to knock it off, sign a peace deal, and keep the oil flowing in and the rare earth elements flowing out.

Yeah, but we don't need to take their land. Objectives should be to incapacitate them. Destroy a couple of their main dams and they are f'ed on homegrown food supply. They would be almost solely dependent on the rest of the world at that point.
UTExan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Analysts have worried that now-dominance in the cyber sphere does not mean future dominance. We need multiple channels of real time communication and dispersed, but highly lethal forces. How that happens in a manner that defeats the Chinese, or any technologically advanced country is beyond me. Perhaps destroying the North Korean nuke program with a preemptive strike would cause an internal revolt against Xi, but China is our existential enemy long term.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I can't really think of anything they have within their borders that we'd want or need, but I'm no expert . We have no obvious reason to want some major presence there imo. I thought this thread was about them being a threat to us which I don't see, other than what they are already doing with propaganda and buying off our politicians.
APHIS AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We have our own problems if it comes to war with China called sustainability. The Pacific is a pretty good barrier and relying solely on the Navy before the rest of the Armed Forces mobilizes is a stretch.

Besides military bases in South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, China is not going to sit there and allow us to build up our forces and will be attacking troop transports and supply lines.

The Chinese are not the Japanese of WW II in which their technology is equal to or even exceeds our own.

Also, their capacity to gather intelligence is far superior to our own for they have hundreds if not thousands of individuals doing this on a daily basis.

A good example is the balloon that was shot down which contained advanced intelligence gathering equipment.
Pooh-ah95_ESL
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Kill chains... are long chains that kill. Sometimes they are chains, which is why they are called kill chains and they are in our military. Our military is big. and strong, and uses chains to kill, which we call kill chains.

Thank you and God bless
FrioAg 00
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Pooh-ah95_ESL said:

Kill chains... are long chains that kill. Sometimes they are chains, which is why they are called kill chains and they are in our military. Our military is big. and strong, and uses chains to kill, which we call kill chains.

Thank you and God bless



Well done, Kamala
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I don't care who you are that's some funny stuff right there. Well done!
MagnumLoad
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We lost the last war with China in Vietnam.
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Honest question here, what did China gain because of the Vietnam War?
Cobra39
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I just beat China's ass in Risk......rolled through to Irkutsk and Yakutsk....and then took over Kamchatka.

Check my spelling *****es.

Cobra39
Stressboy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
China is vulnerable to conventional attacks on infrastructure that will kill millions and leave a billion people without food within months.

They have the most hydroelectric dams in the world. Look it up. I'm sure the Taiwanese and Japanese have them all dialed in.

They would be suicidal to start a war unless they know we won't fight back. (Manchurian candidate and all.)

will25u
How long do you want to ignore this user?
K2-HMFIC
How long do you want to ignore this user?
i-miss-the-republic said:

Only policy wonks or REMFs use the phrase "kill chain".


You don't get out much do you?
Cobra39
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The next Chinese war will end with the next monkey virus that is being stored in a nesting doll in the back of a closet over there. That last one was about a .02 on a 10-point scale. It was just a little tester.

Cobra39
Stat Monitor Repairman
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Short-timers chain my favorite kinda chain.
fordmd
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
-We have real beta testing of our armaments in Ukraine
-We have superior pilot training by superiorly mission and combat-experienced pilots
Our technology is still the tech being targeted for theft

It may happen in the future, but Western tactics and mindsets are more maverick and free thinking leading to a likelihood of continued innovation

That being said, this is Cold World War II
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
bayareaag17
How long do you want to ignore this user?
China wouldn't stand a chance against us in a war lol
Stat Monitor Repairman
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Quote:

That being said, this is Cold World War II
Agree with you here. Another way to look at it is that the cold war never ended.

If the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union collapsed, then why the continued expansion of NATO?
Refresh
Page 2 of 2
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.