Dickdelaware said:That presumes we'd try to shut down their energy/oil imports. Also, they are building more and more nuclear plants, in addition to coal (lot's from Australia), plus they import a bunch from Russia as well.Stmichael said:
Far be it from me to get between Forum 16 and a gripe about how the end is nigh, but I've got a counter point.
China imports some 80% of their energy, the vast majority of which is shipped by oil tanker from the Middle East some 8000 miles away. For all China's hordes of people and rampant expansion of their navy, they still have not cracked the code on building or operating a navy with a range greater than a few hundred miles. Their navy is tailor made to invade Taiwan, and not much else.
This is a catastrophic vulnerability for China if any war were to break out. They would have no means of protecting the bulk of their energy supply. In less than a month, industry shuts down, and a month after that comes mass famine that kills hundreds of millions.
Any shooting war with China (whether over Taiwan or more broadly) would be so disruptive globally it would likely be over within a month/before in-country oil reserves would be depleted, likely. Global food supply/goods should take priority over anything else.
Of course we would go after their energy supply. If we don't, our generals and admirals aren't worth the air they breathe.
As for their coal, nuclear, etc capacity, that's good for keeping the lights and computers running. It's not particularly useful for things like making gasoline or petrochemicals. No oil means no tractors, no truck transportation, no planes, no navy, no fertilizer, etc.
What oil supplies they are capable of getting by Russian pipeline will allow them to either fight or eat, not both. Speaking of which, that Russian supply pales in comparison to the volumes possible by tanker. Especially since it is coming from the eastern Siberian oil fields which are very outdated and breaking down without specialist companies like Haliburton.
Edit: As for the level of disruption, the US is actually the most independent nation on the planet in terms of percent of GDP based on trade. It would hurt to suddenly lose trade with China, but we could easily manage. They, however, would not survive. They are entirely dependent on global trade.
