AgPrognosticator said:

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This is a really well done documentary with some excellent interviews of high level fed and financial professionals.

It's worth the watch to see and hear their thoughts on the current climate.

Bag is right, if you care about your financial future, watch this video. There is no fluff in this documentary. Bullet points and summaries won't suffice.

While it does not provide you with an answer about the future, per se, it does remind one where we've been and perhaps illuminates what's going on now.

One can only speculate about future monetary policy and its effects, but I will attempt to do so anyway. So, here we go:

The Fed has artificially propped up our economy since 2008 in grossly irresponsible ways. To be clear, this has NEVER happened in human history. Market fundamentals previously always dictated the ebb and flow of the free market. For the past 15 years, and especially the past 35 months, this has been especially true.

Speculators have been able to ignore economics 101 and make massive amounts of funny money doing so, due ONLY to current monetary policy, ie, easy money. However, the easy money era cannot continue indefinitely.

If the Fed creates additional liquidity for banks to avoid massive defaults, the money printing effectively continues and we risk becoming the Weimar Republic. The only other option is if the Fed takes their hands off the wheel and allows the market to collapse.

Our entire economy now turns on the Fed's policy decisions and I'm here to tell you the Fed will not take their hands off the wheel.

Ultimately, I think we see massive "bail outs", for lack of a better term. The Fed will provide the necessary liquidity to the tune of a trillion dollars, or more. They will tell us there will be no seepage of these funds into the retails markets and that this infusion of cash will be contained at an institutional level. But that is tantamount to a wanton disregard of the human condition: greed.

This will result in additional significant inflation and wealth disparity.

How to hedge? #1 Get the hell out of debt. #2 Hedge with hard appreciating assets like real estate, precious metals, guns, ammo, etc

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Thank you for the synopsis.
Interesting point there at the end listing guns and ammo as an asset.

Bag said:

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rgag12 said:

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Every day for the past 15 years: IT'S ALL GONNA CRASH WE'RE GONNA LOSE IT ALL!

Still waiting

Maybe one day the chicken little will be right

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you are class of '12 right? You have lived your entire career in a bubble economy fueled by cheap money, calling people chicken little is essentially mocking things you don't understand.

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They are the generation that will get blamed in twenty or thirty years by the next generation for not doing "anything" when they "could have".

My very first Rich Dad, Poor Dad seminar I went to in 2013, the very first thing the speaker told us was buy the three "Gs"….ground, gold and guns.

Philip J Fry said:

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Okay. I zoomed out. I see that we've completely whiped out 2 years of gains and we haven't even entered the bear market yet. Is that what you wanted me to see?

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Your previous comment conflicts with your assessment that we have not entered a bear market yet…

RoadkillBBQ said:

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AgPrognosticator said:

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This is a really well done documentary with some excellent interviews of high level fed and financial professionals.

It's worth the watch to see and hear their thoughts on the current climate.

Bag is right, if you care about your financial future, watch this video. There is no fluff in this documentary. Bullet points and summaries won't suffice.

While it does not provide you with an answer about the future, per se, it does remind one where we've been and perhaps illuminates what's going on now.

One can only speculate about future monetary policy and its effects, but I will attempt to do so anyway. So, here we go:

The Fed has artificially propped up our economy since 2008 in grossly irresponsible ways. To be clear, this has NEVER happened in human history. Market fundamentals previously always dictated the ebb and flow of the free market. For the past 15 years, and especially the past 35 months, this has been especially true.

Speculators have been able to ignore economics 101 and make massive amounts of funny money doing so, due ONLY to current monetary policy, ie, easy money. However, the easy money era cannot continue indefinitely.

If the Fed creates additional liquidity for banks to avoid massive defaults, the money printing effectively continues and we risk becoming the Weimar Republic. The only other option is if the Fed takes their hands off the wheel and allows the market to collapse.

Our entire economy now turns on the Fed's policy decisions and I'm here to tell you the Fed will not take their hands off the wheel.

Ultimately, I think we see massive "bail outs", for lack of a better term. The Fed will provide the necessary liquidity to the tune of a trillion dollars, or more. They will tell us there will be no seepage of these funds into the retails markets and that this infusion of cash will be contained at an institutional level. But that is tantamount to a wanton disregard of the human condition: greed.

This will result in additional significant inflation and wealth disparity.

How to hedge? #1 Get the hell out of debt. #2 Hedge with hard appreciating assets like real estate, precious metals, guns, ammo, etc

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Thank you for the synopsis.
Interesting point there at the end listing guns and ammo as an asset.

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Have to say I kind of agree. I love my guns and recognize their value as much as anyone but I am failing to see have owning them is an appreciating "asset".

Personally I am going to focus on eliminating my debt (even the good debt) in the next six months. Will buy a little gold here and there and and see if I can find any deals on raw land.

Tell me you're Gen Z, without telling me you're Gen Z…

maroonthrunthru said:

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Tell me you're Gen Z, without telling me you're Gen Z…

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If you believe the fed will not take its hand off the wheel and we are therefore headed for hyperinflation, why in the world would you get out of debt?

Lock your debt into fixed rates, then pay it off with deflated future dollars.

Under this scenario - the best thing one could do is go buy appreciating assets like land with high degrees of fixed rate leverage - as much as your secure income can handle the debt service.

Would be all over that if fixed rates were not 7-8%. Servicing that debt at that rate is a little tougher to swallow each month for some.

Are six month t-bills still an attractive safe place to stash cash?

This is a very sound strategy, particularly if you want to be aggressive. My parents did this during the 1970s when we had a similar economic situation.

They built a significant estate by borrowing all the money they could, while also raising seven kids.

maroonthrunthru said:

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Tell me you're Gen Z, without telling me you're Gen Z…

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I'm not.

I'm kicking myself for not sucking every last cent of equity out of my house when I refied at ~3%.

We are being delivered ever more into increasing severities of judgement.

This nation, this entire civilization, must repent and trust in Christ and submit to his authority. Cause it will only be Christ or Chaos.

Premium said:

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Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

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Lots of guns and ammo and land in a very remote area, with big garden and lots of game. Pretty much all of us will be in a sh** storm.

I feel like with the great depression, people still at least adhered to some basic codes of ethics and honor, in general. There was an overall prevailing culture where these values were virtuous. As someone called them the urban "gimme dats" come from a culture where beating women, robbing people at gun point to get what you want, shooting other "gimme dats" over drug turf, hopping over counters and assaulting fast food employees, or simply just knocking elderly people for fun or social media likes is relatively normal compared to the rest of the population.

If these people ever have their bennies cut in the slightest, look out. I remember my pharmacist wife telling me about the racial tirades and unruly behavior she experienced when medicaid customers would have their copay go up by $1-2 for a bottle of pills. If sh** ever truly hits the fan, you will want to be out of dodge. They will be coming and your life means nothing to them.

TheEternalPessimist said:

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We are being delivered ever more into increasing severities of judgement.

This nation, this entire civilization, must repent and trust in Christ and submit to his authority. Cause it will only be Christ or Chaos.

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Yep.

BG Knocc Out said:

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Premium said:

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Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

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Lots of guns and ammo and land in a very remote area, with big garden and lots of game. Pretty much all of us will be in a sh** storm.

I feel like with the great depression, people still at least adhered to some basic codes of ethics and honor, in general. There was an overall prevailing culture where these values were virtuous. As someone called them the urban "gimme dats" come from a culture where beating women, robbing people at gun point to get what you want, shooting other "gimme dats" over drug turf, hopping over counters and assaulting fast food employees, or simply just knocking elderly people for fun or social media likes is relatively normal compared to the rest of the population.

If these people ever have their bennies cut in the slightest, look out. I remember my pharmacist wife telling me about the racial tirades and unruly behavior she experienced when medicaid customers would have their copay go up by $1-2 for a bottle of pills. If sh** ever truly hits the fan, you will want to be out of dodge. They will be coming and your life means nothing to them.

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The gimme dats will be contained within their gimme dat communities. For those that have any ounce of self preservation they are not going into the areas you or I likely call home.

Funky Winkerbean said:

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rgag12 said:

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Every day for the past 15 years: IT'S ALL GONNA CRASH WE'RE GONNA LOSE IT ALL!

Still waiting

Maybe one day the chicken little will be right

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Ask yourself what today would look like if the past 15 years didn't happen.

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It would look a lot better because I wouldn't have gotten married.

JohnLA762 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Okay. I zoomed out. I see that we've completely whiped out 2 years of gains and we haven't even entered the bear market yet. Is that what you wanted me to see?

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Your previous comment conflicts with your assessment that we have not entered a bear market yet…

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All you are doing is showing just how little you know about the market. We've been in a correction period. Not a prolonged bear market.

BoDog said:

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BG Knocc Out said:

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Premium said:

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Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

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Lots of guns and ammo and land in a very remote area, with big garden and lots of game. Pretty much all of us will be in a sh** storm.

I feel like with the great depression, people still at least adhered to some basic codes of ethics and honor, in general. There was an overall prevailing culture where these values were virtuous. As someone called them the urban "gimme dats" come from a culture where beating women, robbing people at gun point to get what you want, shooting other "gimme dats" over drug turf, hopping over counters and assaulting fast food employees, or simply just knocking elderly people for fun or social media likes is relatively normal compared to the rest of the population.

If these people ever have their bennies cut in the slightest, look out. I remember my pharmacist wife telling me about the racial tirades and unruly behavior she experienced when medicaid customers would have their copay go up by $1-2 for a bottle of pills. If sh** ever truly hits the fan, you will want to be out of dodge. They will be coming and your life means nothing to them.

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The gimme dats will be contained within their gimme dat communities. For those that have any ounce of self preservation they are not going into the areas you or I likely call home.

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I generally agree with this to a large extent, especially out in the suburbs. But there are lots of "nice" areas in Houston that are just a stones throw away from poor violent ghettos. We just moved out of a neighborhood called Oak Forest, north of the Heights in Houston...We loved the neighborhood, but it was literally hardcore ghetto 2 miles north, and 2 miles to the east...most whites would be very uncomfortable just driving through these neighborhoods (Acres Homes and Independence Heights). I used to tell my wife that in a SHTF scenario, our neighborhood would be ravaged...we saw how they were robbing the gas stations down the street on an almost weekly basis, they just didn't come into the neighborhoods all that much because there was roaming security. Simply not enough gun owners or people with fortitude to withstand a true SHTF scenario in some of those Houston proper neighborhoods.

Now, in my neighborhood in Cypress, they would be met with much greater deadly force, but there would still be an increase in violent crime.

FrioAg 00 said:

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If you believe the fed will not take its hand off the wheel and we are therefore headed for hyperinflation, why in the world would you get out of debt?

Lock your debt into fixed rates, then pay it off with deflated future dollars.

Under this scenario - the best thing one could do is go buy appreciating assets like land with high degrees of fixed rate leverage - as much as your secure income can handle the debt service.

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What will you do with that highly levered asset when the bank calls your note or refuses to refinance it during a recession?

The only debt that is "safe" is your home mortgage, and even then, you better not miss a single during hard times or that debt, too, will be accelerated.

Talk to professionals who dealt with real estate investors during the S&L crisis or in 2008. People lost every penny and were forced into bankruptcy because when times get tough and you can't service your debt, you're toast.

Buying hard assets with cash or a very low LTV is the safest play. You may miss out of some of the fluff prosperity, but keep in mind that economics 101 don't exactly apply. We peons will not not know when they plan to stop the music. We will wake up one morning and the game will have stopped. You best be ready for that morning.

If you believe a true depression is in the near future, the best thing to do is hoard cash. A depression means whatever you can buy today will actually be cheaper next year. Also, there's a good chance of losing jobs. So, a depression is kind of a negative feedback loop. Nobody wants to buy, so no production, so layoffs, so Nobody can afford to buy and back we go again.

However, I believe the government learned its lesson from the last depression and will inflate its way out of one like they've done the last several times. I'm expecting an extended recession and/or stagflation. Job losses will continue, but not become depression-like before the powers stimulate again.

Hyperinflation is also unlikely (depending on how you define it). But we will have extended years of persistent inflation. High debt to gdp will be rationed away as the new economics and looking at Japan.

Something catastrophic could happen eventually, but we're not there yet and will keep kicking the can down the road until then.

If you think things are going to go tits up and collapse/bailouts will happen, why would getting rid of debt be a counter? Wouldn't you want as much debt as possible in that scenario?

BoDog said:

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For those like me who think the **** will indeed hit the fan, the only question I have is what/where to invest in now? Im talking about ways to make $$$. Real Estate is about the only thing that I can argue makes sense.

I have enough guns and ammo to invade Detroit so I am good to go there.

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I'm 52 and have been investing in the stock market since 1997.

I agree that the USA is in decline and the economy will eventually hit a very dark and awful wall and there will be much pain.

but at the same time, craven politicians and particularly the leftists will keep this Titanic moving as quickly through the Atlantic as they can

to me, there is AT LEAST one more massive bull market before hitting the wall

that means keep as much in equities as is prudent and cash out after the next bull run.

Probably worth a deep dive into Argentine economics over the past 20+ years. Haven't they gone through several rounds of hyper-inflation and monetary crises?

aggie93 said:

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Bag said:

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aggie93 said:

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Bag said:

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fc2112 said:

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Bag said:

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I would advise that you take the two hours and watch this video.

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How about you take two minutes to give us a synopsis?

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Um, if you actually want to know then take the time to watch, cant be explained in two minutes, these are very complex issues

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There are a lot of smart people on this board who are already versed in what's going on so you don't have to start with the assumption of starting from Square One. Haven't watched the video but something like this is opinion based upon data that they choose to emphasize. That's all good but the reality is that so many things occurring in the national and global economy are unprecedented, both for good and for ill, that I am wary of anyone that is assured that we are either on the edge of a Depression or that we are about to rebound. No one really knows because the old guideposts are less reliable indicators in a time of Deglobalization, demographic collapse in much of the world, the emergence of AI and other tech, and the fact that the US is set to be the "tallest midget" in just about any scenario.

So once again, if you could put up some bullets or more than "The Great Depression is coming! You must spend 2 hours watching a video because I think it's important!" is not how things roll here.

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been on this board since its inception, I know how things roll here. This is not an opinion piece, its a video about the post 2007 world and how QE (just like anyone with a brain could see) was a disaster for the long-term and too big to fail was a process of kicking the can down the road, something a kin to suppressing a forest fire instead of understanding that fire is a normal part of a healthy ecosystem.

Bottom line is the Fed and ********s on wall st have become the grown engine of the economy wall st, meaning crony capitalism instead of mainstream capitalism is our grown engine. Corporate debt is at levels that you cant even fathom, that is, it is not to be believed.

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If you want to play the who has been here longer game. Your user name says 2002, I'm from Oct 9,1999 which is literally one of the oldest profiles on this site after the Great Crash. I was on here for years before that when the initial group moved over from GoBig12.

Otherwise thanks for posting at least a pseudo summary. BTW just about any video is an opinion piece because they get to choose what things they do or don't include and what they emphasize and what they credit or discredit for the cause of issues or predicting future issues.

The current climate has some things in common with 2008 and even the Dot Com Bubble. That said it's also fundamentally different. You don't have the crazy investments of either of those bubbles, instead you have stupid Fed policy. In 2001 folks were throwing millions at business plans written on a napkin. In 2008 banks were loaning money to people who could never pay it back and overvaluing property. The only similar crash we have had is crypto but that was all speculative money for the most part.

Don't get me wrong, I'm very nervous about the current climate and there are some serious danger signs. The biggest problem is we have an idiot in the WH, a Fed that isn't much better, and a Congress that can only agree we need to send more money to Ukraine. That said what is different from '01 or '08 is the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are and the money is coming to the US to invest among other things.

We just don't know.

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I lurked for a couple years, got my first couple usernames permabanned, so I am close to your date, but I think you still got me by a couple months

Ironically enough my first Texags exposure was on the trading floor of Enron capital and trade, where I started my career. It was my first corporate america exposure and also a true eye opener on the ruthlessness of traders, originators and bankers in general.

The video explains in some detail about how the bankers simply took the money that was intended for small business and just invested it themselves. The producer makes the analogy of the scorpion and the frog fable, ie, you cant be upset when you give wall st bankers trillions of dollars and they use the money to fatten their own pockets, they are, after all, scorpions.

Three other things stuck out to me in the video. One is that the overall percentage of GDP that the finance industrial complex was before 2007 was 3.5%. It has ballooned to 8.5% over the past 10+ years, that should make everyday main street capitalist apoplectic with rage. The finance bros on wall st would sell their mom for $1, they certainly dont give two ****s about every day americans.

The second thing that stuck out to me is how intellectually dishonest the fed is about how everyday americans view their jobs. It is an undisputable fact that the vast majority of americans are under employed, sure people have jobs, but those jobs dont pay *****

Lasty, the Fed and the finance sectors have become the driving engine that is fueling economic growth in this country, companies are not innovating, building new plants or new widgets, things that truly grow the economy, they are simply borrowing their ass off with free money and using it to buy back stock to pump up the price of the stock (10+ trillion in corporate debt). Its a grotesque perversion of how the founding fathers designed our capitalistic framework.

if there is massive inflation why get out of debt?

everyone that has taken a business class knows that deflation helps savers and inflation devastates the older retired saving class

if your debt is being inflated away- why not keep doing it?

that's the ENTIRE point of the US Economy right now- inflate away a 32 trillion dollar debt.

the problem with inflation for the PTB is that the rabble become increasingly immiserated and you can't happy talk it

it's extremely destabilizing politically

PBS FrontLine is lefty.

rgag12 said:

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Every day for the past 15 years: IT'S ALL GONNA CRASH WE'RE GONNA LOSE IT ALL!

Still waiting

Maybe one day the chicken little will be right

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It is important to note that the stock market ups and downs have nothing to do with the underlying economy beyond people speculating what will happen.

Now include the fact that the Federal agencies change their unit of measurement constantly to fit their needs, so it is damn near impossible to get real stats on what is going on.

The Global economy is in the crapper. We are seeing more wars kick off in countries that are at their limits and the supply chain is not going to improve long term. I hate to steal from Peter Z, but he has that much right. We won't have an easy way to solve the mess, so there will absolutely be specific markets that have massive pain, and others that might boom as a result. There are far too many variables to make an accurate model.

BG Knocc Out said:

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Premium said:

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Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

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Lots of guns and ammo and land in a very remote area, with big garden and lots of game. Pretty much all of us will be in a sh** storm.

I feel like with the great depression, people still at least adhered to some basic codes of ethics and honor, in general. There was an overall prevailing culture where these values were virtuous. As someone called them the urban "gimme dats" come from a culture where beating women, robbing people at gun point to get what you want, shooting other "gimme dats" over drug turf, hopping over counters and assaulting fast food employees, or simply just knocking elderly people for fun or social media likes is relatively normal compared to the rest of the population.

If these people ever have their bennies cut in the slightest, look out. I remember my pharmacist wife telling me about the racial tirades and unruly behavior she experienced when medicaid customers would have their copay go up by $1-2 for a bottle of pills. If sh** ever truly hits the fan, you will want to be out of dodge. They will be coming and your life means nothing to them.

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Preach

why I just sold my home in Germantown, Maryland and will be buying in Ormond Beach Florida at the end of the year.

LMCane said:

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BG Knocc Out said:

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Premium said:

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Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

---

Lots of guns and ammo and land in a very remote area, with big garden and lots of game. Pretty much all of us will be in a sh** storm.

I feel like with the great depression, people still at least adhered to some basic codes of ethics and honor, in general. There was an overall prevailing culture where these values were virtuous. As someone called them the urban "gimme dats" come from a culture where beating women, robbing people at gun point to get what you want, shooting other "gimme dats" over drug turf, hopping over counters and assaulting fast food employees, or simply just knocking elderly people for fun or social media likes is relatively normal compared to the rest of the population.

If these people ever have their bennies cut in the slightest, look out. I remember my pharmacist wife telling me about the racial tirades and unruly behavior she experienced when medicaid customers would have their copay go up by $1-2 for a bottle of pills. If sh** ever truly hits the fan, you will want to be out of dodge. They will be coming and your life means nothing to them.

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Preach

why I just sold my home in Germantown, Maryland and will be buying in Ormond Beach Florida at the end of the year.

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Unfortunately in a SHTF scenario, the gangs will take I95 from Jacksonville right into Ormond Beach to rob you. Of course, you will have fire power, but they will too. From a SHTF standpoint, some places on the West Coast of Florida might be better. But Ormond is WAY better than Maryland.

Never should have opened Volkers toolbox.

Texasclipper said:

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LMCane said:

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BG Knocc Out said:

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Premium said:

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Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

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Lots of guns and ammo and land in a very remote area, with big garden and lots of game. Pretty much all of us will be in a sh** storm.

I feel like with the great depression, people still at least adhered to some basic codes of ethics and honor, in general. There was an overall prevailing culture where these values were virtuous. As someone called them the urban "gimme dats" come from a culture where beating women, robbing people at gun point to get what you want, shooting other "gimme dats" over drug turf, hopping over counters and assaulting fast food employees, or simply just knocking elderly people for fun or social media likes is relatively normal compared to the rest of the population.

If these people ever have their bennies cut in the slightest, look out. I remember my pharmacist wife telling me about the racial tirades and unruly behavior she experienced when medicaid customers would have their copay go up by $1-2 for a bottle of pills. If sh** ever truly hits the fan, you will want to be out of dodge. They will be coming and your life means nothing to them.

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Preach

why I just sold my home in Germantown, Maryland and will be buying in Ormond Beach Florida at the end of the year.

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Unfortunately in a SHTF scenario, the gangs will take I95 from Jacksonville right into Ormond Beach to rob you. Of course, you will have fire power, but they will too. From a SHTF standpoint, some places on the West Coast of Florida might be better. But Ormond is WAY better than Maryland.

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30A sounds like the place to be...