We are headed for "The Greatest Depression"

17,090 Views | 142 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by aggiedaniel06
91AggieLawyer
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AG
Dan Scott said:

Now we have inflation, an economy addicted to cheap money, insane amount of debt, and greater wealth disparity. To fix it will be super painful and politicians don't have the balls.

Won't this debt actually fuel more inflation? As time goes on, the money paid back won't be worth what was borrowed, so creditors won't be fully monetarily satisfied (even if contractually), and will raise prices, lending standards, or their own rates as they can.

Or, will this have a deflationary impact on the money supply?
ttu_85
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Funky Winkerbean said:

ttu_85 said:

HumpitPuryear said:

JohnLA762 said:

I keep hearing:



I keep seeing:


A government that will partner with pharma and tech to push a plandemic on the world will absolutely collude with big banks to manipulate the stock market.
Wow the paranoia here. I know tech regularly beat you guys back in the Big-12 days. But be real, raider rash was never a global pandemic.

Seriously, let's all laugh sometimes. Granted things are weird but that is just part of the human condition.
When does it become a problem to be concerned with? When should the culture in Washington that keeps pulling these things get addressed? What's your tipping point to get you complaining?
For me it was 2010. And yes its gotten bad. But since debt to GDP hit 150%, it was clear we had lost our minds and the inmates were running the asylum.

Symptoms of cancer are apparent to the unaware only after the disease has spread and metastasized . This has been coming for a long time.
aggiehawg
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AG


Warren Buffett to the rescue again?
Hoyt Ag
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AG
Manhattan said:

Shoefly! said:

Premium said:

Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

Wild hogs, we all gonna be hunting them.


If there is apocalyptic situation where people are hunting and scavenging for food, all of the game will be dead in a week.

No they won't. What an asinine comment.
cheeky
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AG
aggiehawg said:



Warren Buffett to the rescue again?
He made a fortune in the last financial crisis
Houston Lee
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AG
2%er/New Army
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Man. When did this board degenerate to such fear mongering/fear porn?

Is there pain for a number of sectors of the economy ahead? Yes, imho. But acting like a world society collapse is just dumb.

Edit: does anyone else here sometimes feel like they're take crazy pills and this entire forum is full of doomsday preppers?
BoDog
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AG
2%er/New Army said:

Man. When did this board degenerate to such fear mongering/fear porn?

Is there pain for a number of sectors of the economy ahead? Yes, imho. But acting like a world society collapse is just dumb.

Edit: does anyone else here sometimes feel like they're take crazy pills and this entire forum is full of doomsday preppers?

Username sort of checks out....
ac04
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Houston Lee said:

We dont have to fix anything. Just keep printing more money. The USA is the world's economic zone. We will not fail and the world will keep buying.

Nobody in the world cares about our government being in debt. They will just change the rules to keep things going. This isn't the 1930s


Print Print Print and

Spend Spend Spend

There is nobody that will hold the USA accountable. They all want a piece.



hph6203
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2%er/New Army said:

Man. When did this board degenerate to such fear mongering/fear porn?

Is there pain for a number of sectors of the economy ahead? Yes, imho. But acting like a world society collapse is just dumb.

Edit: does anyone else here sometimes feel like they're take crazy pills and this entire forum is full of doomsday preppers?
March 2020.
hph6203
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Chief_FIDO12 said:

Some of y'all sound so entitled when griping about the OP not providing YOU with talking points. They wanted to share the video and thought it would be useful. If that's all they want to do, fine.

If YOU are curious and want to learn more about something, YOU go figure it out. fish these days!
If I sent a 2 hour long video to people I know and asked them to watch it the first thing they'd do is ask me to give them some idea of what the video contains so they can get some kind of idea of whether or not they should. We have a pre-existing relationship and they know I'm not an idiot. A random person on the internet has even more responsibility than that if they expect anyone to watch a video, because there's no telling how good their bull**** filtering is.

There's plenty of non-sense that gets posted on this forum, and based upon the summation posted earlier it is not necessarily non-sense, but it's not anything novel to anyone even halfway paying attention.

That's not bratty, it's common courtesy. It's like when people that make a claim on the internet, a person that disagrees asks for evidence to back the claim and the first person says "do your own research." Instant loss of credibility.
Heineken-Ashi
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Premium said:

Bag said:

fc2112 said:

Bag said:

I would advise that you take the two hours and watch this video.
How about you take two minutes to give us a synopsis?
Um, if you actually want to know then take the time to watch, cant be explained in two minutes, these are very complex issues


There is a middle ground between 2 minutes and one hour and fifty three minutes. Bullet points would be nice…


You can read my post here which is likely similar to the point of the video.

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2721405/replies/64472472
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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Dan Scott said:

In summary, cheap money has fueled economic expansion since the Federal Reserve act, and more so since we left the GOLD standard . Ben Bernanke was chairman of the Fed and his argument was that lack of liquidity is what made the Great Depression the Great Depression. So he pumped liquidity into the market and kept doing it because inflation was low. As soon as he tried to stop, the market hand tantrum and backed off. Fast forward to 2018, Powell is now Fed Chair and he wants to stop easy money, but again market has a tantrum and he backs off. And then with Covid we pump more money.

Now we have inflation, an economy addicted to cheap money, insane amount of debt, and greater wealth disparity. To fix it will be super painful and politicians don't have the balls.


FIFY.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Saltwater Assassin
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Manhattan said:

Shoefly! said:

Premium said:

Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all

Wild hogs, we all gonna be hunting them.


If there is apocalyptic situation where people are hunting and scavenging for food, all of the game will be dead in a week.


We couldn't kill all the feral pigs if we tried.

If this would get rid of all the pigs, then I'm up for trying it…
Do right and bear the consequences. -Sam Houston
Bobaloo
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Will be a good time to buy if true…
FrioAg 00
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Premium said:

Didn't watch, but if a Great Depression is coming what is the best hedge against it all


Unleveraged land, machinery, skills you could barter for goods and services, and skills that alleviate your own expenditures

Most importantly - a family that can find happiness and contentment with a much lower standard of living.




Keep in mind, that even the Great Depression came and went in about 12 years. That was followed by the most prosperous 15 years of growth in the history of civilization. So it's about dealing with it and moving forward.
2%er/New Army
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BoDog said:

2%er/New Army said:

Man. When did this board degenerate to such fear mongering/fear porn?

Is there pain for a number of sectors of the economy ahead? Yes, imho. But acting like a world society collapse is just dumb.

Edit: does anyone else here sometimes feel like they're take crazy pills and this entire forum is full of doomsday preppers?

Username sort of checks out....


I'm not some young guy that is naive. I just think it's odd all of you olds continue to sit here praying to be right about the New World Order coming to breakdown civilization as we know it so you can say "I told you so" on texags. I believe there will be a downturn and the "real pain" is about to start getting felt. I am thankful I live in a pocket of the country that seems will be sheltered from a lot of the turmoil we will see in other states and have a made preparation to weather the storm. It's not a black and white issue and by no means acting like everything will be fine. But I do not at all believe we are on the brink of some apocalyptic collapse like many are describing.
ttu_85
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Bag said:



We are seriously f'ed, if you care, I would advise that you take the two hours and watch this video. This is all caused entirely by DC, Fed and the Finance Bros on Wall St.

The chickens are coming home to roost.


flame away...
Very good documentary. Thanks for posting !
Ellis Wyatt
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Some people actually pay attention to more than social media and video games. Do you work for the government by chance?
2%er/New Army
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[Personal attacks are out of bounds -- Staff]
BigRobSA
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Funky Winkerbean said:

rgag12 said:

Every day for the past 15 years: IT'S ALL GONNA CRASH WE'RE GONNA LOSE IT ALL!

Still waiting

Maybe one day the chicken little will be right
Ask yourself what today would look like if the past 15 years didn't happen.



2008, snowy, since I'd still be in Iowa, during winter.
YouBet
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AG
BoDog said:

For those like me who think the **** will indeed hit the fan, the only question I have is what/where to invest in now? Im talking about ways to make $$$. Real Estate is about the only thing that I can argue makes sense.

I have enough guns and ammo to invade Detroit so I am good to go there.


You posted the answer and didn't even realize it.

Invade Detroit. No one would ever expect that and you would take them and all their **** by surprise.

In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity - Sun Tzu
greenband
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Summary of the first hour courtesy of of ChatGPT v4:

This is a summary of a documentary investigating the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on the economy. It begins with the 2008 financial crisis, where the Fed played a significant role in restoring the economy by providing easy money policies. The documentary then delves into the consequences of these policies, including rising inflation, the impact on the banking system, and the effects on American families. The Fed's actions and policies, including quantitative easing and interest rate changes, are discussed, with interviews from current and former Fed officials, finance experts, and those affected by the policies. The documentary concludes with a discussion of the uncertain future of the economy and the Fed's role in it.

It next explores the impact of the easy money policy implemented by the Federal Reserve to help revive the US economy following the 2008 financial crisis. While the policy initially helped stabilize the economy, critics argue that it has caused long-term damage by increasing income inequality and destabilizing financial markets. The documentary also looks at the rise of the Tea Party and its opposition to government spending and bailouts, as well as the growing reliance on the Fed to manage the economy due to political dysfunction in the US. Additionally, the documentary examines the role of the Fed in fueling the longest bull run in the stock market's history, and the dangers of addiction to easy money policies.

The response of the Fed is covered and it's impact to the increasing inequality in the US since the late 1970s. While the Fed claimed its focus was on increasing employment and using its tools to do so, its critics argued that its policies were missing the bigger picture of the country's growing wealth gap. The low-interest rates intended to create jobs and stimulate the economy were instead being taken advantage of by private equity firms and Silicon Valley, leading to concerns about deepening inequality. Despite the economic growth during the Trump administration, the Fed failed to use the opportunity to spend on infrastructure, resulting in a missed opportunity. Eventually, the Fed, led by Chairman Powell, would change course and ease policies, leading to concerns about its independence and its mandate to save the stock market. The Fed's easy money experiment had been going on for a decade, deepening concerns about the wealth gap and the concentration of ownership in the hands of a few private equity firms.

It next covers the risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system that have built up over the years of easy money. It examines the trend of corporate buybacks, which soared to over $6 trillion in the easy money decade following the 2008 financial crisis, and how this has resulted in an unproductive financialized economy. The documentary also explores the growth of shadow banks, which pose a risk to the whole system due to a lack of regulation, and the potential instability they create. When the pandemic hit in early 2020, it exposed all the weaknesses of the system, and the Fed responded by buying up hundreds of billions in debt from financial institutions and making more than a trillion dollars available to the shadow banks. However, it wasn't enough to stabilize the system.
TTUArmy
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This thread kind of makes me miss Jeff Hamilton.
JohnLA762
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AG
Philip J Fry said:

JohnLA762 said:

I keep hearing:



I keep seeing:




Really?

The NASDAQ is down 32% from its high and you think it's going up?
The SP500 is still down 18% and is in the way down for another leg.

Your stupid gifs simply aren't true.




In all seriousness, ZOOM OUT!

Last time I checked, we were green YTD. Last time I checked, we are up bigly over the last 5 years. Step back from the ledge.

Or better yet, since it's so bad, JUMP!

SoccerAg
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My whole life people been predicting economic collapse yawn
Aggie95
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aggiehawg said:



Warren Buffett to the rescue again?


Yes. The White House called Buffett. Maria Bartiromo reported that this morning.
SoccerAg
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aggiehawg said:



Warren Buffett to the rescue again?


Is this like following jimmy Johnson's plane to aggieland ?
Manhattan
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2%er/New Army said:

Man. When did this board degenerate to such fear mongering/fear porn?
Jun 3, 2008
Faustus
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Picard said:

Dan Scott said:

The dollar is reserve currency of the world and for that to change, will take a massive war.


Do you not realize what's already happening with the petro dollar? Do you not realize that WWIII is already underway?


It's been supplanted by the ruble, yuan, and some sort of prospective new Brics currency. Also I think a couple of cryptocurrencies claimed to have vanquished it weekend before last, but it was late and nobody else witnessed it. The petrodollar of course denies everything.
Philip J Fry
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AG
Okay. I zoomed out. I see that we've completely whiped out 2 years of gains and we haven't even entered the bear market yet. Is that what you wanted me to see?
RedAnimal12
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"One thing I've learned, and it's faith based, is that everything will be ok in the end. If it's not ok, it's not the end."

Yes and amen!
aggie3200
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Some people have known for a long time that the USA is coming apart at the seams due to democrats; I don't need a documentary to tell me that.
BoDog
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AG
The one thing democrats are actually amazing at is destroying the middle class. How they were able to do that in less than 3 years alongside spineless GOP leadership is utterly remarkable.
AgPrognosticator
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This is a really well done documentary with some excellent interviews of high level fed and financial professionals.

It's worth the watch to see and hear their thoughts on the current climate.

Bag is right, if you care about your financial future, watch this video. There is no fluff in this documentary. Bullet points and summaries won't suffice.

While it does not provide you with an answer about the future, per se, it does remind one where we've been and perhaps illuminates what's going on now.

One can only speculate about future monetary policy and its effects, but I will attempt to do so anyway. So, here we go:

The Fed has artificially propped up our economy since 2008 in grossly irresponsible ways. To be clear, this has NEVER happened in human history. Market fundamentals previously always dictated the ebb and flow of the free market. For the past 15 years, and especially the past 35 months, this has been especially true.

Speculators have been able to ignore economics 101 and make massive amounts of funny money doing so, due ONLY to current monetary policy, ie, easy money. However, the easy money era cannot continue indefinitely.

If the Fed creates additional liquidity for banks to avoid massive defaults, the money printing effectively continues and we risk becoming the Weimar Republic. The only other option is if the Fed takes their hands off the wheel and allows the market to collapse.

Our entire economy now turns on the Fed's policy decisions and I'm here to tell you the Fed will not take their hands off the wheel.

Ultimately, I think we see massive "bail outs", for lack of a better term. The Fed will provide the necessary liquidity to the tune of a trillion dollars, or more. They will tell us there will be no seepage of these funds into the retails markets and that this infusion of cash will be contained at an institutional level. But that is tantamount to a wanton disregard of the human condition: greed.

This will result in additional significant inflation and wealth disparity.

How to hedge? #1 Get the hell out of debt. #2 Hedge with hard appreciating assets like real estate, precious metals, guns, ammo, etc
 
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