Bank panic averted?

10,586 Views | 116 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by reineraggie09
Shooter McGavin
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Congress had an emergency zoom call last night

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTR7ksuXm/
MouthBQ98
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Buried, more like. The structural economic problems are still there. This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.
Shooter McGavin
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MouthBQ98 said:

Buried, more like. The structural economic problems are still there. This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.
Agreeing on it being buried - this is not on the news at all?
Nanomachines son
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Don't worry the Fed has an infinite amount of money available! It's okay this is fine!
AgBQ-00
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So we are going to be taking wheelbarrows of cash to get bread soon.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
Helicopter Ben
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AgBQ-00 said:

So we are going to be taking wheelbarrows of cash to get bread soon.

Yep. Do we need to bump the infamous inflation thread again?
rocky the dog
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Quote:

Buried, more like.

Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
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TxTarpon
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MouthBQ98 said:

Buried, more like. The structural economic problems are still there.
What are three "structural economic problems" that are still here?
Quote:

This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.
No campanero, your marxist thought is incorrect.
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MouthBQ98
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Government manipulation of the currency and regulatory interference with productivity and supply chain such that inflation remains a problem without adequate efficient production to absorb the inflated money supply, while pressuring the central bank to deal with the problem using the crude club of interest rates that further threaten production by choking off access to capital.

Banks don't know where to hide, and provide security while also generating returns, and some are taking excessive risks apparently while trying to ride out this economic storm.

Excessive Government manipulation is the problem and it is still occurring.

You don't think the political and socioeconomic elite utilize government market manipulation to their own advantages rather than compete in more of a free market where emerging competitors or disrupters can be a threat?
YouBet
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TxTarpon said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Buried, more like. The structural economic problems are still there.
What are three "structural economic problems" that are still here?
Quote:

This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.
No campanero, your marxist thought is incorrect.
1. $32T in debt? You know, that overly large elephant in the room that everyone ignores?

2. Many people no longer know how to define inflation. We are entering a Dark Ages not unlike the historical one where people have simply forgotten certain things. See the SVB executives who purchased long-term bonds during the most prolific money printing in human history.
WHOOP!'91
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TxTarpon said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Buried, more like. The structural economic problems are still there.
What are three "structural economic problems" that are still here?
Quote:

This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.
No campanero, your marxist thought is incorrect.
Mouth referred to as a Marxist? I have officially seen it all now.
DallasAg 94
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Krombopulos Michael
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Quote:

What are three "structural economic problems" that are still here?

1st and foremost - Derivative exposure in collapsing regional banks.

Current Global GDP - $96 Trillion
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD


There are HUNDREDS OF TRILLIONS of OTC derivatives. 1.2 Quadrillion by some accounts. We will use the BIS numbers for the official count.[url=https://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy2211.htm][/url]
Quote:


https://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy2211.htm

Key takeaways
  • The notional value of outstanding over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives rose to $632 trillion at end-June 2022, up from $598 trillion at end-2021. This marks a continuation of the moderate upward trend evident since end-2016.
  • The gross market value of outstanding OTC derivatives, summing positive and negative values, rose noticeably in the first half of 2022, to $18.3 trillion, led by increases in interest rate derivatives. The value of some commodity derivatives surged against the background of rising food and energy prices.
  • The end-June 2022 derivatives data benefit from data reported by a broader set of reporting dealers, as part of the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey.1 Dealers that report only every three years accounted for 9% of the notional value of outstanding derivatives at end-June 2022, unchanged from the 2019 Survey.


https://www.usbanklocations.com/bank-rank/derivatives.html
Banks Ranked by Derivatives

The following is a ranking of all banks in the United States in terms of "Derivatives". This comparison is based on data reported on 2022-09-30.

Rank
Derivatives
Bank Name
1
$55,387,209,000,000
JPMorgan Chase Bank
2
$51,794,949,000,000
Goldman Sachs Bank USA
3
$46,562,329,000,000
Citibank
4
$22,087,831,000,000
Bank of America
5
$12,191,517,000,000
Wells Fargo Bank
6
$2,132,802,000,000
State Street Bank and Trust Company
7
$1,516,559,899,000
HSBC Bank USA
8
$1,174,293,000,000
The Bank of New York Mellon
9
$853,262,264,000
U.S. Bank
10
$582,376,432,000
PNC Bank
11
$377,502,758,000
Western Alliance Bank
12
$358,333,635,000
TD Bank
13
$324,868,000,000
Truist Bank
14
$314,819,951,000
The Northern Trust Company
15
$268,638,373,000
Citizens Bank
16
$207,575,413,000
MUFG Union Bank
17
$172,804,000,000
Regions Bank
18
$172,118,398,000
Fifth Third Bank
19
$164,169,093,000
Capital One
20
$141,516,289,000
KeyBank


33

$27,682,000,000
Silicon Valley Bank

53

$11,267,493,000
Signature Bank[url=https://www.usbanklocations.com/signature-bank-locations.htm][/url]

68

$5,736,320,000
Silvergate Bank

69
$5,638,545,000
First Republic Bank

"It's the derivatives, stupid" should be the mantra going forward.

The global banking system almost locked up in 2008 due to derivative exposure to CMBS. Watch The Big Short for an entertaining education into over leveraging assets. No one knows what the next pin to ***** the bubble will be but once these derivatives start popping off there isn't enough liquidity to fill the massive holes that will be created in balance sheets in banks.

Dies Irae
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Nanomachines son said:



Don't worry the Fed has an infinite amount of money available! It's okay this is fine!
I don't know if we should just be taking Imhotep at his word.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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E_TX_Ag12
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So our money is infinitely worthless. That is not reassuring at all.
bmks270
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The debt and money supply is the main problem that is making everyone poorer by inflation.

The debt it appears no politician has any real desire to bring under control. They don't care, the politicians just need to make money faster than they devalue it for their own gain, and that's all they do while in office.
MouthBQ98
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So, banks are still printing their own currency in effect by manufacturing and trading derivatives based on their own assets and that serves as another means of fractional banking in effect because those assets aren't backed by all that much if things go south.
TxTarpon
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Quote:

Government manipulation of the currency and regulatory interference with productivity and supply chain such that inflation remains a problem without adequate efficient production to absorb the inflated money supply, while pressuring the central bank to deal with the problem using the crude club of interest rates that further threaten production by choking off access to capital.
That is ONE sentence?!?
Day-um you are cafinated.

Name three new regulatory interference items that have are brand new since 1/1/23.
Inflation is here but is declining. You can see it in car and house prices as an early indicator.
Quote:

Banks don't know where to hide, and provide security while also generating returns, and some are taking excessive risks apparently while trying to ride out this economic storm.
And they will get burned. Perhaps they should be venture capitalists instead of banks?

Quote:

Excessive Government manipulation is the problem and it is still occurring.

That has been the situation since like, forever.
And yet, we are still here.

Quote:

You don't think the political and socioeconomic elite utilize government market manipulation to their own advantages rather than compete in more of a free market where emerging competitors or disrupters can be a threat?

"The elite" do not get together like a comic book movie and decide how to stick it to everyone.
"The elite", mostly people with net worth's north of $500m, have ALWAYS manipulated things to their advantage because they can. They all like making money. Even the late Billionaire Red McCombs needed consumers spending money and companies expanding for his net worth to go up.

Remember when that Will Hurd guy was running for congress?
The bromance here for him was strong.
There were a few of us that were critical of his promotion of "public-private partnerships".
But that era was full of such nonsense, most of that has thankfully faded away.
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Dies Irae
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The gold standard literally fixes all of this, but unfortunately our GDP and lifestyles wouldn't be where they are now, because we would have actually had to "live within our means" as a country.

Reality sucks, selling fantasy is easier.
TxTarpon
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WHOOP!'91 said:

TxTarpon said:


Quote:

This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.
No campanero, your marxist thought is incorrect.
Mouth referred to as a Marxist? I have officially seen it all now.
Rush covered that for decades.
"Get even with 'em ism" is real
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TxTarpon
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Quote:

1. $32T in debt? You know, that overly large elephant in the room that everyone ignores?
We have always been in debt.
That is how we broke the soviets.
If you were silent while we were nation building Iraq and Afghanistan, consider yourself to blame.
Quote:

2. Many people no longer know how to define inflation.
Seem very easy.
I used to spend $2k a month, now I spend $5k for the same thing.
Pretty easy to define that.
Quote:

We are entering a Dark Ages not unlike the historical one where people have simply forgotten certain things. See the SVB executives who purchased long-term bonds during the most prolific money printing in human history.
SVB is full of venture capital money.
Their risk meters are very different from ours.
Keller6Ag91
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Nanomachines son said:



Don't worry the Fed has an infinite amount of money available! It's okay this is fine!
Thank the good Lord we aren't tied to the Gold Standard any longer.
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
TxTarpon
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Quote:

"It's the derivatives, stupid" should be the mantra going forward.
Sounds so familiar.
I cannot remember where I first heard this....


Quote:

The global banking system almost locked up in 2008 due to derivative exposure to CMBS. Watch The Big Short for an entertaining education into over leveraging assets. No one knows what the next pin to ***** the bubble will be but once these derivatives start popping off there isn't enough liquidity to fill the massive holes that will be created in balance sheets in banks.
You have intelligently brought up with might happen.
And much like 2008 and 2020 we will not see 1930 style carnage.
Sharpshooter
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Dies Irae said:

The gold standard literally fixes all of this, but unfortunately our GDP and lifestyles wouldn't be where they are now, because we would have actually had to "live within our means" as a country.

Reality sucks, selling fantasy is easier.
Beat me to it.
TxTarpon
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Quote:

you seem to have missed my answer, or perhaps you didn't understand. what is happening right now is not complicated.
You posted graphs.
Sorry, I am not looking up their hot links for validation.
Quote:

powell insistend he would not raise rates in april, june, july, and october of 2021. banks trusted him and bought billions of dollars of bonds (a supposedly safe investment) with customer deposits based on those assurances. powell then reversed course basically as soon as he was re-nominated and starting jacking rates up. this crushed the value of the bonds the banks purchased, leading many of them to be insolvent.

does that help?
You outline that very well, thanks.
Perhaps you and Pocahontas agree?
Powell Should Recuse Himself From Fed's Internal Review Of SVB Oversight, Elizabeth Warren Says
MouthBQ98
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TxTarpon said:

WHOOP!'91 said:

TxTarpon said:


Quote:

This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.
No campanero, your marxist thought is incorrect.
Mouth referred to as a Marxist? I have officially seen it all now.
Rush covered that for decades.
"Get even with 'em ism" is real


I'd hardly call systemic regulatory and central bank market manipulation free market capitalism, either. It's maybe best described as corporatism or crony capitalism.

The regulatory entities have us oscillating between inflation and recession and have almost achieved the penultimate failure of having them both concurrently. That is a structural problem if there ever was one, but it is correctable, if they would eliminate some regulation on production and allow us to actually produce, so that quality of life broadly improves as we soak up the excess in money supply that is driving this inflation. There's no need to force a sharp recession as the only solution, though that may be unavoidable anyhow.

I'm not saying there's some cabal or oligarchy running the nation, but rather that there is a socioeconomic political class that clearly ensures regulation favors their own positions and this manipulation and governance is often detrimental to greater growth and innovation.
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TxTarpon
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Quote:

I'd hardly call systemic regulatory and central bank market manipulation free market capitalism, either. It's maybe best described as corporatism or crony capitalism.
And that has been the case since like forever.
As noted with Red McCombs, LBJ liked him doing projects and making $$$$$$.
Ross Perot, same thing with his govt contracts.
Elon Musk did NOTHING without a govt check during the Obama years.
See also TETF and TEF funds.
Quote:

That is a structural problem if there ever was one, but it is correctable, if they would eliminate some regulation on production and allow us to actually produce, so that quality of life broadly improves as we soak up the excess in money supply that is driving this inflation.
As most of this board was exposed to back in 2008, a few regulatory changes in accounting would have corrected the BS that was going on then.
Quote:

There's no need to force a sharp recession as the only solution, though that may be unavoidable anyhow.
That would also correct the work ethic of young people.
TxTarpon
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Quote:

just so i'm clear, graphs are not a valid form of communication,
FIFY
Graphs are only as good as the source that put them together.
I am not checking where you got them.
This graph is biased and you know that when you check the source.


Quote:

but words are? what do you do for a living
I am retired and not looking up your sources because I don't really care.
If you post them like Zergling Rush does, then checking them out is easy.
MouthBQ98
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Well, it might, but half the country would want to print more money to throw at them so they'd never suffer the consequences of failing to work hard enough.
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