MouthBQ98 said:

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Well, it might, but half the country would want to print more money to throw at them so they'd never suffer the consequences of failing to work hard enough.

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They will have to work.

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You have intelligently brought up with might happen.

And much like 2008 and 2020 we will not see 1930 style carnage.

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Those four banks that went BK over the last few days kinda show that it IS happening. They have $50 billion of derivative exposure that is showing up on some counter party's balance sheets now. How do those holes get filled? Money printing, gov't bailout?

These four won't cause the meltdown. There's enough cover the loses. If Credit Suisse or more regional banks go belly up, the problems grow by orders of magnitude. I don't think the current crop of geniuses in the White House (especially Yellen) are up to the task of saving the world if things get much worse......


I love your optimism that all is well, but as they say past performance doesn't guarantee future success. Things can and do change in unpredicted ways.

Dies Irae said:

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The gold standard literally fixes all of this, but unfortunately our GDP and lifestyles wouldn't be where they are now, because we would have actually had to "live within our means" as a country.

Reality sucks, selling fantasy is easier.

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The gold standard isn't the magic silver bullet that you think it is. I'd recommend reading up on it and what it actually was and it's pros/cons

And then there was Moodys.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html

TxTarpon said:

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Quote:

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1. $32T in debt? You know, that overly large elephant in the room that everyone ignores?

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We have always been in debt.
That is how we broke the soviets.
If you were silent while we were nation building Iraq and Afghanistan, consider yourself to blame.

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2. Many people no longer know how to define inflation.
Seem very easy.

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I used to spend $2k a month, now I spend $5k for the same thing.
Pretty easy to define that.

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We are entering a Dark Ages not unlike the historical one where people have simply forgotten certain things. See the SVB executives who purchased long-term bonds during the most prolific money printing in human history.

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SVB is full of venture capital money.
Their risk meters are very different from ours.

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So the scale of debt doesn't matter and we can do this in perpetuity. Lol. Ok.

Not easy to define when firms like Goldman can't define it and miss that it's happening after we've printed 40% of the money supply we've ever had. And then Democrats change the definition to suit their politics.

Regarding SVB, if different = stupid, then sure.

Remember when banks loaned money and was a place to store you money?

Helicopter Ben said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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So we are going to be taking wheelbarrows of cash to get bread soon.

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Yep. Do we need to bump the infamous inflation thread again?

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inflation CPI today is at 6% for the year

added to the 7% from last year

42 months of falling incomes (growth of inflation over growth in wages)

rgag12 said:

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Dies Irae said:

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The gold standard literally fixes all of this, but unfortunately our GDP and lifestyles wouldn't be where they are now, because we would have actually had to "live within our means" as a country.

Reality sucks, selling fantasy is easier.

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The gold standard isn't the magic silver bullet that you think it is. I'd recommend reading up on it and what it actually was and it's pros/cons

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Yes, I was using "literally" and "all" in a colloquial sense which is inaccurate. The gold standard fixes much of this issue, it isn't a panacea and our GDP would likely be much lower now with it, than it is; but so would our debt.

Dies Irae said:

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rgag12 said:

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Dies Irae said:

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The gold standard literally fixes all of this, but unfortunately our GDP and lifestyles wouldn't be where they are now, because we would have actually had to "live within our means" as a country.

Reality sucks, selling fantasy is easier.

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The gold standard isn't the magic silver bullet that you think it is. I'd recommend reading up on it and what it actually was and it's pros/cons

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Yes, I was using "literally" and "all" in a colloquial sense which is inaccurate. The gold standard fixes much of this issue, it isn't a panacea and our GDP would likely be much lower now with it, than it is; but so would our debt.

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This. It would force the idiots in DC to actually budget, as well.

Dear God, please bless the remnant. Amen.

Be prepared, get a local church family if you don't have one. Go with God. We will make it through together.
Be strong, be of good courage. If God is for us, who can be against us? What shall we fear?

YouBet said:

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TxTarpon said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Buried, more like. The structural economic problems are still there.

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What are three "structural economic problems" that are still here?

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This manifestation of the danger into actual consequences for the elite class is suppressed, for now.

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No campanero, your marxist thought is incorrect.

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1. $32T in debt? You know, that overly large elephant in the room that everyone ignores?

2. Many people no longer know how to define inflation. We are entering a Dark Ages not unlike the historical one where people have simply forgotten certain things. See the SVB executives who purchased long-term bonds during the most prolific money printing in human history.

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Yes. Buying bonds in this environment unless you can hold them to maturity is insanity. However, there will be a time in the next few years to add investment grade munis to the portfolio.

My posts were directed at someone else.
Unsolicited, you started addressing me.
I ignored you because I was not talking to you.
Then, like a toddler, started to address me again.
I respond, then you get rude.

Sharpshooter said:

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Dies Irae said:

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The gold standard literally fixes all of this, but unfortunately our GDP and lifestyles wouldn't be where they are now, because we would have actually had to "live within our means" as a country.

Reality sucks, selling fantasy is easier.

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Beat me to it.

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Eventually, whenever that is, reality wins over fantasy. Worldwide it is all monopoly money, and right now we have the most.

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So the scale of debt doesn't matter and we can do this in perpetuity. Lol. Ok.

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After 2010 no one seems to care. Both parties tag team us.
Link
Is your life better now than in 2005?
I bet so.

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Not easy to define when firms like Goldman can't define it and miss that it's happening after we've printed 40% of the money supply we've ever had. And then Democrats change the definition to suit their politics.

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Yep. GS sure missed their prediction.
Considering they are woke, liberal and entrenched because they are all about making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

ac04 said:

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sorry i upset you by providing the answer to answer your question. good grief.

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You were upset I ignored you. Please go into sales.
Your "Look at me! LOOK AT ME!" is a talent that can be monetized for you and someone who hires you.

Can we please end the tit for tat crap?

MagnumLoad said:

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Can we please end the tit for tat crap?

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They have $50 billion of derivative exposure that is showing up on some counter party's balance sheets now. How do those holes get filled? Money printing, gov't bailout?

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Of course.

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If Credit Suisse or more regional banks go belly up, the problems grow by orders of magnitude.

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Credit Suisse is a dirty, criminal bank that should go belly up.
I covered their many misdeeds on another thread.

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I don't think the current crop of geniuses in the White House (especially Yellen) are up to the task of saving the world if things get much worse......

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Luckily, they only have until 1/20/25.

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I love your optimism that all is well, but as they say past performance doesn't guarantee future success. Things can and do change in unpredicted ways.

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If I were 25 years younger, I would be piling up cash ready to buy some properties that might go on sale.
I would also be ok with waiting for the right renter so the carrying cost might be a bit longer.

TxAgPreacher said:

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Dear God, please bless the remnant. Amen.

Be prepared, get a local church family if you don't have one. Go with God. We will make it through together.
Be strong, be of good courage. If God is for us, who can be against us? What shall we fear?

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You know, I support this wholeheartedly. My innards (sorry for those who require a link, I ain't got one) tell me the pendulum is gaining momentum downhill swinging to the right to conservative and religious values,

I would like to see Christians embrace other like minded religious folks including Muslims, Jews, Buddhists, etc to push for value based reform in our schools, business and government.

This nation was founded with the principle for religious freedom BUT with an understanding that did not mean establishing a country where only atheists are tolerated.

As the pendulum swings, welcome others with different views but that do not sacrifice values and principles our Country was founded upon.

Brrrrrr goes the money machine!

fka ftc said:

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TxAgPreacher said:

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Dear God, please bless the remnant. Amen.

Be prepared, get a local church family if you don't have one. Go with God. We will make it through together.
Be strong, be of good courage. If God is for us, who can be against us? What shall we fear?

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You know, I support this wholeheartedly. My innards (sorry for those who require a link, I ain't got one) tell me the pendulum is gaining momentum downhill swinging to the right to conservative and religious values,

I would like to see Christians embrace other like minded religious folks including Muslims, Jews, Buddhists, etc to push for value based reform in our schools, business and government.

This nation was founded with the principle for religious freedom BUT with an understanding that did not mean establishing a country where only atheists are tolerated.

As the pendulum swings, welcome others with different views but that do not sacrifice values and principles our Country was founded upon.

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It will be an opportunity to share the truth, when they see the faithful thriving during hard times.

Banks are so heavily regulated, if the oversight of the banks does not catch them I do think the backstop should be there for the customer for more than $250,000 - - likely the whole thing. How long has $250,000 even been the number, seems a bit outdated.

Too big to fail

Muy said:

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Too big to fail

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From the Matt Taibbi, the correct term is "Too Big to JAIL".

fka ftc said:

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Muy said:

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Too big to fail

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From the Matt Taibbi, the correct term is "Too Big to JAIL".

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Hoo boy, ain't that right.

ac04 said:

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you seem to have missed my answer, or perhaps you didn't understand. what is happening right now is not complicated.

powell insistend he would not raise rates in april, june, july, and october of 2021. banks trusted him and bought billions of dollars of bonds (a supposedly safe investment) with customer deposits based on those assurances. powell then reversed course basically as soon as he was re-nominated and starting jacking rates up. this crushed the value of the bonds the banks purchased, leading many of them to be insolvent.

does that help?

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Did Powell pinkie promise? As long as he did, then there's really no reason for a thorough diligence process when investing $100 billion in deposits. It's not like anyone could predict that we would be entering into a severe inflationary environment.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Excessive Government manipulation is the problem and it is still occurring.

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And you can bet absolute certainty that this will be used for ever more government manipulation…never let a crisis go to waste.

Premium said:

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Banks are so heavily regulated, if the oversight of the banks does not catch them I do think the backstop should be there for the customer for more than $250,000 - - likely the whole thing. How long has $250,000 even been the number, seems a bit outdated.

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Just with inflation from the last couple years that number needs to be at least $300k now.

javajaws said:

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Premium said:

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Banks are so heavily regulated, if the oversight of the banks does not catch them I do think the backstop should be there for the customer for more than $250,000 - - likely the whole thing. How long has $250,000 even been the number, seems a bit outdated.

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Just with inflation from the last couple years that number needs to be at least $300k now.

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I just looked it up.

Introduced in 1974 @ $40,000
Raised in 1980 to $100,000
Raised in 2008 to $250,000

To be equal to inflation since the dates above:

1974: $258,000
1980: $386,000
2008: $356,000

So if you took the 1974 number of $40,000 we are at the right place around $250,000. If you took what they issued in 2008 they'd need to raise it $106,000 to $356,000.

The bigger point though, I believe, is the banks should and are likely regulated hard enough that if a bank were to do something really stupid with their company to go bad, the depositors should be made whole. Even with SVB example, everyone is being made whole. I think this sets the stage for what would ever really happen if it happened again. If all banks go bad the world is ending.

Premium said:

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javajaws said:

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Premium said:

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Banks are so heavily regulated, if the oversight of the banks does not catch them I do think the backstop should be there for the customer for more than $250,000 - - likely the whole thing. How long has $250,000 even been the number, seems a bit outdated.

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Just with inflation from the last couple years that number needs to be at least $300k now.

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I just looked it up.

Introduced in 1974 @ $40,000
Raised in 1980 to $100,000
Raised in 2008 to $250,000

To be equal to inflation since the dates above:

1974: $258,000
1980: $386,000
2008: $356,000

So if you took the 1974 number of $40,000 we are at the right place around $250,000. If you took what they issued in 2008 they'd need to raise it $106,000 to $356,000.

The bigger point though, I believe, is the banks should and are likely regulated hard enough that if a bank were to do something really stupid with their company to go bad, the depositors should be made whole. Even with SVB example, everyone is being made whole. I think this sets the stage for what would ever really happen if it happened again. If all banks go bad the world is ending.

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100% disagree. If this were to happen you would see woke companies deposit their money in only woke banks who are then free to make bad investment decisions with that money. No risk (other than collecting your golden parachute on the way out), so why not?

Feel free to remove the word "woke" from that previous statement and my argument still stands. No accountability or consequence for making bad decisions is ever a good idea.

AgBQ-00 said:

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So we are going to be taking wheelbarrows of cash to get bread soon.

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any proof or factual based reasoning behind this statement?

Hang everyone at SVB c level and two levels below j the town square at high noon.

You will end bank fraud in one day.

It's time to get serious with criminals in this country. Whether they be a CEO cashing out stock and paying bonuses or a thug severing an Asian lady's spine.

Quick, swift and effective justice.