Kansas Kid said:

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Agreed. I think the Fed knows it as well which is why they will be slower to ease this go around because they want to try avoid the rebound inflation.

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There comes a point where they don't have a choice. And the last thing they want is to be blamed for a deep recession or depression, which inaction on their part would absolutely cause. Like I've stated on stock market thread, they are up against a wall and need everything to play out absolutely perfectly to perform a stick save. But their mission has never been to manage OUT of swings down. It's been to cause them. They are the arsonist in charge of putting out the fire.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Agreed. I think the Fed knows it as well which is why they will be slower to ease this go around because they want to try avoid the rebound inflation.

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There comes a point where they don't have a choice. And the last thing they want is to be blamed for a deep recession or depression, which inaction on their part would absolutely cause. Like I've stated on stock market thread, they are up against a wall and need everything to play out absolutely perfectly to perform a stick save. But their mission has never been to manage OUT of swings down. It's been to cause them. They are the arsonist in charge of putting out the fire.

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No argument here. I think the question is will unemployment go up. The drop in participation rate and challenge finding quality employees appears to be making many companies hesitant to let people go. If there is enough pain they will but it won't be as fast as last downturn. The Fed is absolutely between a rock and a hard place and will likely do what causes the most pain to the American people because I have little faith in them to do the right thing.

Kansas Kid said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Agreed. I think the Fed knows it as well which is why they will be slower to ease this go around because they want to try avoid the rebound inflation.

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There comes a point where they don't have a choice. And the last thing they want is to be blamed for a deep recession or depression, which inaction on their part would absolutely cause. Like I've stated on stock market thread, they are up against a wall and need everything to play out absolutely perfectly to perform a stick save. But their mission has never been to manage OUT of swings down. It's been to cause them. They are the arsonist in charge of putting out the fire.

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No argument here. I think the question is will unemployment go up. The drop in participation rate and challenge finding quality employees appears to be making many companies hesitant to let people go. If there is enough pain they will but it won't be as fast as last downturn. The Fed is absolutely between a rock and a hard place and will likely do what causes the most pain to the American people because I have little faith in them to do the right thing.

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Kind of tongue in cheek, but the last year has seen the youtube reactors and wannabe Joe Rogans having to get real jobs again. Fast food is not underemployed like during Covid. A lot of people who got conditioned to stay at home had to get jobs again. Now we are back in normal economics. And the numbers can only be massaged for so long. Once the masses pick up on the fact that second jobs and government workers and part time contractors have been the majority of jobs added, you will see the market react.

And you're right. Don't expect a flash crash. If we get a downturn, it is very likely it will be slower developing and long lasting than what many people have experienced. Purely from the nature of "you can't bandaid the problems we have like a single bubble pop in 2008", and "the systematic weakness is far deeper and far more widespread". It won't crash overnight and it won't repair overnight.

Our company is calling it a rolling recession. We have a broad spectrum of companies and some have been in the toilet for over a year while others are doing great. We are starting to see rotation where the worst businesses are getting better and the stronger ones seem to be turning down. Like you said, this doesn't look like a 2008 bubble pop.

another regional bank ****s the bed. BTFP set to expire 3/11. does anyone believe that's actually going to happen?

Read today where somebody estimates that the commercial office real estate problem could exceed $1 trillion.

And that may not scratch the surface because you got a lot of pensions and retirement funds wrapped up in commercial real estate investments.

To make matters worse, some of those investments are secured by insurance contracts.

We talking potentially massive losses whch could tank re-insurers and ultimately more banks.

So you got the convergence of problems in banking, finance and insurance.

If we get to that point we might see cascading failures.

Any major event could trigger a mass conflagration.

We might see cascading failures which take a long time to stabilize.

After 2008, rules and check stops were put in place to try and prevent a more serious global meltdown. Do a controlled decent if things ever got bad again. And that's probably what is happening now, to some extent we just don't understand that, or aren't willing to admit that.

So we about to see if any of the check stops in the system work. No one knows what might happen if things go south. It's all theoretical. No one knows what will happen if trading is ever halted and the problem is widespread. You might have a situation where people are locked out of trading on a wide scale. If that happens all hell breaks loose and it could take a long time to stabilize.

If the controlled decent and the check stops don't work as designed, and we go full meltdown, we might start to see the first signs of problems with global currencies. It might be the case that some countries will have to choose a a BRICS v. CBDC economy. Conference realignment, but there are only two conferences. Smaller countries will be forced to pick a side. Tide or Gain? Newports or KOOL. SEC or B1G Choose your brand.

In any event, we might see a consolidation of the world currencies under a 'new' common regime. For example, it may be the case that we see the USD and Euro merge 1:1.

In banking we might see a consolidation to 6-major banks. We might see a situation where regional banks and local banks are in name only.

So there's a chance this all burns to the ground. I hope not, but we'll see how this all shakes out.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13028857/amp/bots-ai-republic-banking-crisis.html

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Bots and fake accounts spread misinformation about First Republic Bank, triggering the withdrawal of $100billion in deposits and driving its share price down until it became the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history, according to a new report.

Valent Technologies used AI technology to examine online activity during last year's banking crisis that began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

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Interesting.

Black swans everywhere looking for a place to land.

European regulators are closely following a group of hedge funds with exposure to mortgage bonds and average gross leverage in excess of 2,000%, a position so large it risks impacting markets, per Bloomberg.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 1, 2024

Average leverage of 2000%.

The FED can't save everyone with money printing and market manipulation.....The black swan is mostly likely going to land in Europe and ignite the meltdown.

BREAKING: New York Community Bank stock, $NYCB, the bank that acquired the collapsed Signature Bank, extends losses to 45% in 2 days.

This comes after the bank reported a Q4 loss of $260 million while a gain of $250 million was expected.

The bank also reduced their dividend by… pic.twitter.com/zf6g5kT7e6

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 1, 2024

Powell goes on 60-minutes.

Now the Maw being trotted out.

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Powell goes on 60-minutes.

Now the Maw being trotted out.

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Treasury team being sent to China also. They are going there to soften the trade tarriffs Trump put in place. I'd also wager the US Treasury is worried about China's lack of participation in US bond auctions. Our government's appetite for spending is insatiable.

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Average leverage of 2000%.

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That is insane.

Zergling Rush said:

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European regulators are closely following a group of hedge funds with exposure to mortgage bonds and average gross leverage in excess of 2,000%, a position so large it risks impacting markets, per Bloomberg.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 1, 2024

Average leverage of 2000%.

The FED can't save everyone with money printing and market manipulation.....The black swan is mostly likely going to land in Europe and ignite the meltdown.

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2000 Whoop!

will25u said:

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BREAKING: New York Community Bank stock, $NYCB, the bank that acquired the collapsed Signature Bank, extends losses to 45% in 2 days.

This comes after the bank reported a Q4 loss of $260 million while a gain of $250 million was expected.

The bank also reduced their dividend by… pic.twitter.com/zf6g5kT7e6

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 1, 2024

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This comes after the bank reported a Q4 loss of $260 million while a gain of $250 million was expected.

Thats a a 510 Million dollar **** Up!

Must be those same climate models doing their forecasting.

Lot Y must be in charge over there.

C@LAg said:

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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Costco selling out of 1oz gold bars?

Someone asked about it on the earnings call, so it sounds like marketing bs. This looks like pr bull****, but who knows. Is this real issue? You or you seen people buying gold bars at Costco?

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it is online only, but I do know someone who bought one of these last time they were offered.

I think prior sales were region limited. This is the first time it is nationwide.

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6-months later Costco still selling out of gold bars to the tune of $200 million a month.

Quote:

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A major hurricane in the Northeast U.S. could trigger a wave of defaults on loans offered by Wall Street banks, according to a long-awaited analysis by the Federal Reserve that underscores climate change's growing implications for the U.S. financial system.

Last year, the Fed required for the first time that the six largest investment banks in the U.S. test their capacity to model and withstand a range of climate change impacts and futures. Among them: extreme hurricanes, fires and floods, as well as a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.

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WSJ writer asking the $1.5 trillion dollar question.

Reporting was changed 4-years ago to the expected-loss model, shouldn't banks have booked these losses already?

$1.5T?

That number seems excessively low.

They've absolutely have been trying to discreetly float them in hopes that something would come along and save them / fix this.

They are panicking as of late because the balance sheets can't absorb this much longer.

They are looking for alternative revenue... here's an example from JPMC, but they aren't the only one considering fees and significant changes to their banking design.

https://nypost.com/2024/07/05/business/jpmorgan-warns-customers-they-may-have-to-pay-for-free-checking-accounts/

They are doing everything in their power to make sure they are in the best position possible before this blows up, and that probably involves putting you, me and as much of the USA as possible on the sinking ship while they get on the life raft.

BREAKING: The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, per CNBC.

The Fed's stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 24, 2024

i'm sure everything is fine

ac04 said:

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BREAKING: The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, per CNBC.

The Fed's stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 24, 2024

i'm sure everything is fine

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Lots of folks believe one major reason for Powell lowering rates despite high inflation is that many banks have massive amounts of unrealized loans from devalued treasuries and bonds.

Logos Stick said:

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ac04 said:

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BREAKING: The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, per CNBC.

The Fed's stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 24, 2024

i'm sure everything is fine

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Lots of folks believe one major reason for Powell lowering rates despite high inflation is that many banks have massive amounts of unrealized loans from devalued treasuries and bonds.

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Maybe so but most bond losses are driven by the 10 year treasury bond and it's down (yield up around .40% since 12/9) so whatever losses they had is even bigger.
So perhaps bond market thinks it's a bad thing long term that he lowered rates.

Logos Stick said:

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ac04 said:

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BREAKING: The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, per CNBC.

The Fed's stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 24, 2024

i'm sure everything is fine

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Lots of folks believe one major reason for Powell lowering rates despite high inflation is that many banks have massive amounts of unrealized loans from devalued treasuries and bonds.

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You want to know who has the biggest unrealized loss? The bank's bank. But they get to classify it as a deferred asset for as long as they want.

Banks should be grateful. Without BTFP in 2023, which ended in 2024 and is officially drawn down in early 2025, they would be in a far worse spot. BTFP was free liquidity to the banks in a time where the FED was supposed to be tightening. It was their latest of money magic that the taxpayer didn't understand.