The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem

16,518 Views | 288 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by Red Dane
etxag02
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This is a big reality shift away from a common assumption and a popular political narrative that was heavily used in the last election cycle. Unsuccessfully, I might add. Maybe this is why.
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
Quote:

Takeaways

  • The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
  • Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
  • Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
  • If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
  • Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.

Quote:

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it's more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they're only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing dataNew Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state's per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.

JW
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AG
statistics can be fun. now do counties or Congressional districts
Secolobo
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AG
what political party controlled those cities in the red states...
fredfredunderscorefred
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Angry husband kills cheating wife in Wyoming and you probably have a murder "rate" of 33%. Gangs kill 47 people in one weekend in Chicago, and you add in all the noncitizens and you have a murder "rate" of .000002.
American Hardwood
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AG
Now do blue cities in red states.
I am always wrong
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This has been debunked so many times. Take out the blue counties run by democrats, and red states are far and away safer. Go post your misleading garbage somewhere else.
ChemEng94
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Statistics can be fun. Now do demographics. Specifically, compare Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Wyoming, for example vs. Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, etc.
redcrayon
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AG
etxag02 said:

This is a big reality shift away from a common assumption and a popular political narrative that was heavily used in the last election cycle. Unsuccessfully, I might add. Maybe this is why.
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
Quote:

Takeaways

  • The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
  • Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
  • Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
  • If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
  • Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.

Quote:

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it's more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they're only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing dataNew Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state's per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.


Do you want to dig deeper into these stats? It could get very uncomfortable.
AggieKeith15
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AG
Wealth and demographics determine crime. HTH
MemphisAg1
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I am always wrong said:

This has been debunked so many times. Take out the blue counties run by democrats, and red states are far and away safer. Go post your misleading garbage somewhere else.
yeah, let's look at it on a county level across the entire country. Murder is influenced much more by local government policies than state or federal. Local crime laws, police support, prosecution, etc.

Murder rate in a county vs if it was D or R in the presidential election. Let's see it.
samurai_science
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-study-debunks-red-state-high-crime-claim-by-hillary-clinton-democrats

Study debunks 'red state murder' claim from Hillary Clinton, Democrats

Of the 30 American cities with the highest murder rates, 27 have Democratic mayors, and at least 14 Soros-backed prosecutors, the study shows


The Heritage authors' data analysis revealed that, if the homicide rates of Democrat-run cities and counties in Republican-led states are subtracted, the overall homicide rates for those states are dramatically reduced.
tunefx
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AG
So they sourced their data from the same group that reports Covid data? That will build confidence.
samurai_science
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https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-murders-concentrated-in-5-percent-of-counties

e=mc2
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AG
Murder rates are highest in blue cities. Period. It is irrefutable. Want murders to stop? Don't elect Democrats.
Ag4life80
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Surely the OP knows better than to post something that was based on a claim by Crooked Hillary. Surely
nortex97
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This statistical chicanery was debunked immediately in the fall when it came out.

Try to keep up. Everyone knows the real murder problem is among young black adult males in Dem plantation cities, whose deaths are a-ok (as are black abortion deaths) for white liberals, as they are a useful political tool first and worthless to them, second.

If serious, ask if decarceration really is solving/helping the murder rates in any states it is being implemented in:

Quote:

Manhattan Institute fellow and author Rafael A. Mangual writes in the NY Post:
Quote:

While [Philadelphia District Attorney Larry] Krasner, Newsom and other Democrats try to deflect, what we really should be asking is: Is it wise to pursue decarceration for its own sake when so many crimes are committed by those with lengthy criminal histories and active criminal justice statuses like probation or parole?

If Democrats are worried about losing touch with the American public on these questions, they should either change course, or better defend their decision to stay on the path they're on. Telling the American public not to believe what they see on the news, however, is a losing strategy.
Democrats rarely take the blame for the results of their policiesjust look at President Joe Biden blaming Putin and everyone else on the planet for high gas pricesand this shameless attempt to deflect from their failures by admonishing red states is pitiful. The American people can see through it.
The answer is simply no, and black communities are hardest hit. The soft bigotry of sophist thinking of trying to play that off on red states/white conservatives is pathetic at very best, and statistically/factually wholly false.
samurai_science
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nortex97 said:

This statistical chicanery was debunked immediately in the fall when it came out.

Try to keep up. Everyone knows the real murder problem is among young black adult males in Dem plantation cities, whose deaths are a-ok (as are black abortion deaths) for white liberals, as they are a useful political tool first and worthless to them, second.

If serious, ask if decarceration really is solving/helping the murder rates in any states it is being implemented in:

Quote:

Manhattan Institute fellow and author Rafael A. Mangual writes in the NY Post:
Quote:

While [Philadelphia District Attorney Larry] Krasner, Newsom and other Democrats try to deflect, what we really should be asking is: Is it wise to pursue decarceration for its own sake when so many crimes are committed by those with lengthy criminal histories and active criminal justice statuses like probation or parole?

If Democrats are worried about losing touch with the American public on these questions, they should either change course, or better defend their decision to stay on the path they're on. Telling the American public not to believe what they see on the news, however, is a losing strategy.
Democrats rarely take the blame for the results of their policiesjust look at President Joe Biden blaming Putin and everyone else on the planet for high gas pricesand this shameless attempt to deflect from their failures by admonishing red states is pitiful. The American people can see through it.
The answer is simply no, and black communities are hardest hit. The soft bigotry of sophist thinking of trying to play that off on red states/white conservatives is pathetic at very best, and statistically/factually wholly false.
Yep...OP is still trying though.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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whether red or blue state
whethe red or blue city
WHO is committing these murderers?
what race specifically?

maybe politics isn't the problem

Funky Winkerbean
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AG
OP won't be back. Flag for trolling.
JCE_02
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Lol.

"If you just don't count all the democrat murders at all, the rate is much higher in red states"
UTExan
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Meanwhile, in rural Ellijay, GA, no less than 3 armed customers stopped the robbery of a convenience store by holding the robber at gunpoint for police.
https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/wrong-store-three-armed-customers-stop-a-holdup-in-a-north-georgia-convenience-store/
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aggie93
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Sounds like we should all move to Baltimore and Chicago since they are clearly safer than rural Texas.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

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Rapier108
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Another hit and run troll thread by etxag02.
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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Three better outcomes than the OP.


Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
2012heisman
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27 of the 30 highest murder rates are in Democrat cities in Democrat controlled counties with a Soros prosecutor and Soros judges.

It is the reason that Harris County and Travis County have turned into crime ridden ****holes.

It is the reason Austin has a record murder rate two years in a row after defunding the police by a record amount.
redcrayon
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UTExan said:

Meanwhile, in rural Ellijay, GA, no less than 3 armed customers stopped the robbery of a convenience store by holding the robber at gunpoint for police.
https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/wrong-store-three-armed-customers-stop-a-holdup-in-a-north-georgia-convenience-store/
Nice little town.
doubledog
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I like a good debate, but the OP just stands up, shouts and then runs out of the room. That is so annoying.

aggielostinETX
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AG
How many Lot Y socs did he make back in 2020?
Franklin Comes Alive!
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APHIS AG
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etxag02 said:

This is a big reality shift away from a common assumption and a popular political narrative that was heavily used in the last election cycle. Unsuccessfully, I might add. Maybe this is why.
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
Quote:

Takeaways

  • The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
  • Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
  • Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
  • If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
  • Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.

Quote:

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it's more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they're only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing dataNew Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state's per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.


Their are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Bobaloo
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Now count the number of citizens murdered by the Bolsheviks, Nazis and CCP because the people were not armed to resist.
APHIS AG
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2012heisman said:

27 of the 30 highest murder rates are in Democrat cities in Democrat controlled counties with a Soros prosecutor and Soros judges.

It is the reason that Harris County and Travis County have turned into crime ridden ****holes.

It is the reason Austin has a record murder rate two years in a row after defunding the police by a record amount.
And lets include San Antonio.
oh no
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AG
The potd blue star ratio for responses vs OP on this thread is hilarious
 
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