Mr. AGSPRT04 said:

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Why do I still have 50% of my wealth in the market?

F.

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Because it's down from 75% of your wealth?

Honestly, unless you're going to successfully time a market the uptick from bear to bull can be swift.

will25u said:

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Goldman Sachs, $GS: "We now expect a 75bp hike in September followed by 50bp hikes in November and December."

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2022

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So 175 bps by year end? Gonna get ugly real quick.

Mr. AGSPRT04 said:

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Why do I still have 50% of my wealth in the market?

F.

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I think you meant to type "36% of my wealth" in the market

Gap said:

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will25u said:

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Big jump. Wow.

Noruma: Fed to hike rate to 100BPS.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2022

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Isn't the bigger "wow" that we have a fed funds rate of 2.25% currently when inflation has been 6-9% for all of the past 12 months?

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Yep. Powell's performance and credibility were soundly trashed on this afternoon's after-market TV shows, blogs, and in the Twitterverse. +1% next week is still far too little and way too late.

sharpdressedman said:

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Gap said:

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will25u said:

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Big jump. Wow.

Noruma: Fed to hike rate to 100BPS.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2022

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Isn't the bigger "wow" that we have a fed funds rate of 2.25% currently when inflation has been 6-9% for all of the past 12 months?

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Yep. Powell's performance and credibility were soundly trashed on this afternoon's after-market TV shows, blogs, and in the Twitterverse. +1% next week is still far too little and way too late.

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Well, clearly the answer to fixing past governmental screwups is more government interference.

What's target now? 4.x?

Don't get your hopes up for slowing inflation. With the collapse of Chinese manufacturing in the coming years we're going to see massive amounts of commercial construction almost regardless of rates. Companies are figuring out the end of China is real and if that's your base it's an existential threat. The response is going to be to find a new home fast and that's going to keep commodity prices high. Add to that the fertilizer problems we are and will continue to see and food prices are going to keep climbing as well. Lastly looking at the energy crisis in Europe and I expect those prices to spike as well.

All this move is going to do is further distance the dollar from its international peers and make US Treasuries even more appealing as a "safe" investment. We're a mess but we're significantly better off than everyone else.

Couple of problems. #1: there is about a 12 month delay from an interest rate hike until it ripples through the economy and produces its impact, so it's notoriously difficult to get the interest rate hikes correct without over shooting. Might be why they are being cautious. #2: interest rate hikes mean the government is paying more to service its massive debt. Yes I know they don't seem to give a flip about debt these days, but I'm guessing the Fed policy makers do, and that's another reason they're being cautious. My 2 cents

Engine10 said:

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What's target now? 4.x?

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The target is above the real inflation rate

Engine10 said:

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What's target now? 4.x?

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Well if the 1970/80s is any indication it should be 12 to 20 %

Should we just take the Volcker approach and get it over with?

LostInLA07 said:

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Engine10 said:

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What's target now? 4.x?

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The target is above the real inflation rate

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A long way to go. Powell is way behind on this.

China is a huge buyer of US commodities like grain, beef and pork...and to my knowledge isn't a producer of Ag equipment or fertilizers used in US. Just curious why if you're expecting a collapse in China you're also predicting high commodities.

AgLaw07 said:

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China is a huge buyer of US commodities like grain, beef and pork...and to my knowledge isn't a producer of Ag equipment or fertilizers used in US. Just curious why if you're expecting a collapse in China you're also predicting high commodities.

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The collapse in China is going to force everyone that makes things in China to build new facilities elsewhere to make those products because China is not going to be able to in the future. I expect us to see a huge explosion in facilities construction which is going to place significant demand on raw materials.

LOYAL AG said:

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Don't get your hopes up for slowing inflation.

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Shelter cost/expenses alone are a joke. I think they have it at 6.8% YoY increase in cost of shelter. Find me the average apartment that has only increased 6.8% or the home for rent (or bought) for that.

The shelter component (40%) should double or triple in the next 12 months.

Ozzy Osbourne said:

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Should we just take the Volcker approach and get it over with?

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Yes, but Powell wanted his soft landing. He has abandoned that idea now. Thankfully. His Jackson Hole speech was basically we might have to Volker this thing and you guys better be prepared. Now all the fund managers are coming out and saying that the FED may over correct and send us into a recession. Which is just them not wanting to lose out on their year end bonuses because they see the writing on the wall of the FED actually aggressively increasing rates like they should have 6 months ago.

So when can we expect the hit in property valuation?

will25u said:

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Big jump. Wow.

Noruma: Fed to hike rate to 100BPS.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2022

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That is the applause line

In DFW property values are still going up but property prices are coming back down. I am looking right now and spoken with a few realtors that all say this.

With this the mortgage rates are going to increase for the next 12-24 months and then start to decrease unless something crazy happens. There seem to be some patterns when rates go up

The way shelter is calculated is already going to hammer dems.

The +6.8% is probably off by 2x or 3x that is being used today. I expect each month another +1% which factors in 40% of CPI calcs. I'm amazed it is only +6.8% using the last 6 months.

ac04 said:

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HalifaxAg said:

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So when can we expect the hit in property valuation?

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it has already started on the west coast.

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I can't imagine why....

I hope it reaches fire sale status soon, maybe some of the transplants will go back!

P.U.T.U said:

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In DFW property values are still going up but property prices are coming back down. I am looking right now and spoken with a few realtors that all say this.

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I...I don't know what this means.

The value of an asset is only worth what someone else will pay for it.

HumpitPuryear said:

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Jeezus if these morons would just listen to Manhattan and let the supply chain catch up everything will be fine.

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Then we can all sell two teas again?

Tex117 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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In DFW property values are still going up but property prices are coming back down. I am looking right now and spoken with a few realtors that all say this.

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I...I don't know what this means.

The value of an asset is only worth what someone else will pay for it.

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I take it to mean people are no longer offering over asking.

will25u said:

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Big jump. Wow.

Noruma: Fed to hike rate to 100BPS.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2022

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You are stating it as fact. This is one group of analysts opinion, fyi. Although, I do agree the chances of a 100bp hike went up since the CPI report this week. But 75bp is more likely, still, imo.

Quote:

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"Materializing upside inflation risks are likely to result in the Fed raising rates by 100bp at the September FOMC meeting, above our previous forecast of 75bp," Nomura said in an analyst note.

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Other opinions:

Market expectations for Fed Rate Hikes after today's CPI report...
September: 75 bps hike to 3.00-3.25%
November: 75 bps hike to 3.75-4.00%
December: 25 bps hike to 4.00-4.25%

Change from yesterday: 25 bps upward shift, with November moving from 50 bps hike to 75 bps hike.

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 13, 2022

Odds of a full 100bps rate hike are now at 40%. They were nil prior to CPI, and 20% just after. 50 bps is off the table.

Terminal Fed Funds rate has jumped from 4% to 4.33% in April

in @WSJmarkets: https://t.co/nEidJaElFH pic.twitter.com/j6eo0OexMU

— Eric Wallerstein (@ericwallerstein) September 13, 2022

How the hell am I supposed to download porn at 100bps??

So prospective home buyers can either:

A) buy ASAP at prices which were juiced by very loose monetary policy and to a lesser extent COVID stimulus, then watch their home value evaporate as rates climb like the 80's and no one can afford those same values at 8%+

or

B) delay buying for an unknown number of years when either rates come down, prices come down, and/or we dig ourselves out of the looming recession.

Did I get that right? Sounds like a fun choice for our growing family.

I brought this up a long time ago. Hold onto your butts yall.

We have a ways to go given 2000-2005 didn't have this type of inflation.

The Fed increasing interest rates does absolutely nothing if the legislative branch of the government continues to pass ludicrous spending bills that add to our national debt while artificially increasing the money supply to those that have no business spending money right now. Sure, Suzie Anne with a liberal arts degree in feminism's right to use standing urinals has $10,000 in student loans forgiven, but then when she turns around and spends that money on super grande extra fropomocochinoweeno at sunbucks while donating to kamala's superpac for people who speak no go at people being people understanding persons, the fed raising interest rates does absolutely diddly squat unless you reintroduce the Volker method of skyhigh interest rates.

This is going and has been going in the wrong direction, but if you are a democratic lawmaker let's just add fuel to this bonfire and make it even bigger, because at the end of the day this is the person who tweets mean things fault.

WHOOP!'91 said:

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Tex117 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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In DFW property values are still going up but property prices are coming back down. I am looking right now and spoken with a few realtors that all say this.

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I...I don't know what this means.

The value of an asset is only worth what someone else will pay for it.

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I take it to mean people are no longer offering over asking.

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That is correct, in my neighborhood they had some offering well over $100k asking during the summer. My realtor said almost everyone is offering under the listed price now.