LOYAL AG said:

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I'm not worried about massive food supply problems here like I am in other parts of the world. Africa is going to face famine and China, the world's #1 food importer, may as well. Today I was watching a video on Live Aid and thinking we're going to see that again this decade. Domestically prices are going to be a problem as global food production falls off substantially but we're a net exporter so we'll be fine from an availability perspective. What I am worried about is people being priced out of being able to eat the things we're all accustomed to eating. Food commodities are going to soar this year and that's going to make the food on the shelves increase substantially as well. We will see people that can't afford to eat.

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I think it could spiral out of control because people aren't used to eating so little. My grandmother always says half the issues in the US/City China are because "People have too much food and not much to do".

During the Cultural Revolution, my grandparrents would go out to the mountainside to dig wild plants for food. I remember a story distinctly about grandmother saying that they did autopsy on some of the political prisoners when the had to ascertain death causess, and it was labeled as "suicide" because they were so badly starved they ate their leather belts.

I remember when I was around 10 my grandmother didn't let me eat for a week and then gave me the same wild veggies she dug out of the mountainside boiled with water when I asked how bad it was.

I also remember my grandfather telling me he and his friend would volunteer to clean the kitchen so they could take the pots, boil them with water, and drink the resulting soup because there wasn't enough food to go around.

Relative of my great grandmother had stories about how the older family members deliberated starved themself to death and told them to eat the bodies need be. This was in 1945 right before the first Indochinese war in the border area between Vietnam and China.

Boo Weekley said:

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We think a real "struggle" or "hardship" is when Wi-Fi goes in and out for a bit…or when someone calls you the wrong pronoun or says a word you don't like. We are absolutely F***ED if we ever have any real shortages of any kind. Even if it's the type of shortage where it's not the end of the world, the panic induced overreaction will be chaotic and violent. Get the F out of the cities as soon as there is any type of real shortage or struggle.

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Screw that, I'm staying. I've always wanted to be a warlord. I'll run my cul-de-sac with an iron fist. My soccer mom harem will be second to none.

LOYAL AG said:

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I'm not worried about massive food supply problems here like I am in other parts of the world. Africa is going to face famine and China, the world's #1 food importer, may as well. Today I was watching a video on Live Aid and thinking we're going to see that again this decade. Domestically prices are going to be a problem as global food production falls off substantially but we're a net exporter so we'll be fine from an availability perspective. What I am worried about is people being priced out of being able to eat the things we're all accustomed to eating. Food commodities are going to soar this year and that's going to make the food on the shelves increase substantially as well. We will see people that can't afford to eat.

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People will eat less processed/junk food and less fast food - they'll cook more at home and eat less. Should be good for the average American's health if anything. Bad if you work in the food service industry though.

chase128 said:

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I'd be more worried about shortages of medications. Folks can figure out food, but we can't make our own medicine.

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And don't look for Communist China to initiate humanitarian airdrops of pharmaceuticals/supplies when things go south.

Quote:

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Using traditional pharmaceutical manufacturing technology, a U.S.-based company could never offset the labor and other cost advantages that China enjoys simply by achieving higher productivity.

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LINK

BigRobSA said:

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twk said:

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It would not be pretty for certain things, but we already are seeing this. You can't find new cars. I've been looking for shoes for a couple of months and can't find the kind I want in my size (9 wide or EE, too common apparently).

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I know that feel, bro. Size 16 clown shoes here.

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Lived in some miserable conditions for months in end in the army. Everything was fine until cigarettes or dip ran out. Time to stock up on Copenhagen.

javajaws said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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I'm not worried about massive food supply problems here like I am in other parts of the world. Africa is going to face famine and China, the world's #1 food importer, may as well. Today I was watching a video on Live Aid and thinking we're going to see that again this decade. Domestically prices are going to be a problem as global food production falls off substantially but we're a net exporter so we'll be fine from an availability perspective. What I am worried about is people being priced out of being able to eat the things we're all accustomed to eating. Food commodities are going to soar this year and that's going to make the food on the shelves increase substantially as well. We will see people that can't afford to eat.

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People will eat less processed/junk food and less fast food - they'll cook more at home and eat less. Should be good for the average American's health if anything. Bad if you work in the food service industry though.

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I think you're probably right. Restaurants will have to raise prices, but note that the cost of the actual food served at a restaurant usually only accounts for a fraction of the bill (typically, 25% to 40%), so they may not increase in line with commodity prices. Still, as prices go up, people can turn to home cooking in order to save money (and be more efficient, cooking only what you are going to eat).

Didn't even think about my damn blood pressure meds lol.

Maybe a curandero could help.

javajaws said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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I'm not worried about massive food supply problems here like I am in other parts of the world. Africa is going to face famine and China, the world's #1 food importer, may as well. Today I was watching a video on Live Aid and thinking we're going to see that again this decade. Domestically prices are going to be a problem as global food production falls off substantially but we're a net exporter so we'll be fine from an availability perspective. What I am worried about is people being priced out of being able to eat the things we're all accustomed to eating. Food commodities are going to soar this year and that's going to make the food on the shelves increase substantially as well. We will see people that can't afford to eat.

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People will eat less processed/junk food and less fast food - they'll cook more at home and eat less. Should be good for the average American's health if anything. Bad if you work in the food service industry though.

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That's a great theory for those of us in the middle class with what we consider normal lives but you have to realize there are a substantial number of people that don't have the first clue about cooking never mind doing so with staples line beans and rice if it comes to that. I know people who don't have a clue how to use their oven and believe it or not there are people in the cities that don't even have them.

I think a lot of us "normal" people have a romanticized vision of the good that some hard times can lead to but there's going to be A LOT of pain and suffering along the way. To be blunt this is going to get violent.

Shoefly! said:

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I can skin a buck, run a trotline. But no, they will be screwed and will be at your gate pilfering and searching for food.

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Everyone who can do that all doing it at the same time introduces a complicating variable.

It's all good as long as my preferred pronouns are used.

milner79 said:

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chase128 said:

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I'd be more worried about shortages of medications. Folks can figure out food, but we can't make our own medicine.

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And don't look for Communist China to initiate humanitarian airdrops of pharmaceuticals/supplies when things go south.

Quote:

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Using traditional pharmaceutical manufacturing technology, a U.S.-based company could never offset the labor and other cost advantages that China enjoys simply by achieving higher productivity.

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LINK

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Some medication/chemicals can be improvised.

Artemisinin was originally derrived from pressing Artemisia annua leaves and can be also used as a fever reducer (I know because I've taken the plant form it before.. Tastes terrible)
Eucommia ulmoides can be used as a cold hardy (up to -30C) rubber tree.. Native US equivalents in AZ/NM do exist however.
Zanthoxylum clava-herculis (Toothache tree), native to E. Texas, contains Chelerythrine and can be used as an antimicrobial
Hydrojuglone exists in Walnut species and can be used as a herbicide.
Texas/American ( Diospyros texana and D. virgininana) Persimmons can be used for tannins in leather.
Toxicodendron diversilobum and T.vernix can be probably harvested for Urashol to make laquer based wood products that are waterproof.
Vitis mustangensis (Mustang grape) can be pressed for low pH acid needs/ vinegar production.
Silkworms can tolerate eating American Mulberries for silk production.

It is not that there are not subsitutes. It is that many of these avenues are not productive in the current day.

I think it would be far worse than most people think. Look how quickly store shelves went bare with panic buying recently. I recall people in New Orleans crowding into the Superdome waiting for somebody to take care of them during Katrina and chaos ensuing. If there was a nationwide distribution crisis that happened suddenly, the dense cities would become extremely violent. The criminal element would quickly form raiding bands to take what they can by force until there was nothing left in the cities. Then it would spill over into the suburbs. Suburb neighborhoods will not be defensible. Then it would spill into the countryside.

It wouldn't take long for this to happen.

Growing your own food would be essential, but you still have to survive long enough to yield a crop. That can be a pretty long time.

LOYAL AG said:

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javajaws said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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I'm not worried about massive food supply problems here like I am in other parts of the world. Africa is going to face famine and China, the world's #1 food importer, may as well. Today I was watching a video on Live Aid and thinking we're going to see that again this decade. Domestically prices are going to be a problem as global food production falls off substantially but we're a net exporter so we'll be fine from an availability perspective. What I am worried about is people being priced out of being able to eat the things we're all accustomed to eating. Food commodities are going to soar this year and that's going to make the food on the shelves increase substantially as well. We will see people that can't afford to eat.

---

People will eat less processed/junk food and less fast food - they'll cook more at home and eat less. Should be good for the average American's health if anything. Bad if you work in the food service industry though.

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That's a great theory for those of us in the middle class with what we consider normal lives but you have to realize there are a substantial number of people that don't have the first clue about cooking never mind doing so with staples line beans and rice if it comes to that. I know people who don't have a clue how to use their oven and believe it or not there are people in the cities that don't even have them.

I think a lot of us "normal" people have a romanticized vision of the good that some hard times can lead to but there's going to be A LOT of pain and suffering along the way. To be blunt this is going to get violent.

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There are a LOT of "poor" people that make poor choices. And spending on junk food and eating out is high on that list. Not saying there aren't truly poor people - but generally THEY get government assistance as well.

On learning to cook - necessity is the mother of invention and learning. The people who don't know how to cook don't know how because they can afford not to cook. They'll learn. Fast.


Food prices would need to go up a lot more than they have already before people start starving in America.

In a weird way shortages will be the only thing that can convince some urbanites that socialism is a fallacy. I mean it's all talk and opining until it hits you directly and for a sustained period of time.

I feel pretty covered on all bases except fuel. Most urban/suburban gas stations turnover and re-fill tanks every 3 days or so. If a disruption hit gasoline distribution, then people would start getting stuck at home and freaking out.

Bidens leg hairs said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Shoefly! said:

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I can skin a buck, run a trotline. But no, they will be screwed and will be at your gate pilfering and searching for food.

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They'll also be pilfering your buck and whatever gasper goo was on your trot line

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No one is going to be able to survive on their own. You will need at least a neighborhood working together.

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So something resembling a commune?

JSKolache said:

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In a weird way shortages will be the only thing that can convince some urbanites that socialism is a fallacy. I mean it's all talk and opining until it hits you directly and for a sustained period of time.

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The left has taught me one thing that remains true today and will be true tomorrow: The left will always take a problem and come up with the wrong conclusion about what is causing it and apply a fix that will only make it worse.

RoadkillBBQ said:

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Boo Weekley said:

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We think a real "struggle" or "hardship" is when Wi-Fi goes in and out for a bit…or when someone calls you the wrong pronoun or says a word you don't like. We are absolutely F***ED if we ever have any real shortages of any kind. Even if it's the type of shortage where it's not the end of the world, the panic induced overreaction will be chaotic and violent. Get the F out of the cities as soon as there is any type of real shortage or struggle.

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Screw that, I'm staying. I've always wanted to be a warlord. I'll run my cul-de-sac with an iron fist. My soccer mom harem will be second to none.

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Me too. I aint going anywhere. I have a lake within walking distance for fish and water and plenty of deer within easy reach. Our little peninsula out here can sustain itself for a long time.

FAT SEXY said:

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I mean.. we had 40 people brawl at a buffet line a month ago over a temporary delay in steaks while the kitchen prepared the next batch.

How would we handle real third world probs? I'm guessing not very well.

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Great Question and absolutely NOT. We are too spoiled and entitled as Americans. I believe alot of this is due to the fact that we just haven't suffered much and have been blessed. Some suffering in life can be a good thing, it makes us grow and keeps a person grounded. Just my 2 cents...

I think we could get ourselves through food shortages pretty easily. At least the half way competent people can.


The lack of medicine and resulting chaos would be very difficult to deal with. Seems like everyone takes something for something nowadays and a lot of that is either addictive or life sustaining. The violence around that would be intense.

icrymyselftosleep said:

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Bidens leg hairs said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Shoefly! said:

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I can skin a buck, run a trotline. But no, they will be screwed and will be at your gate pilfering and searching for food.

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They'll also be pilfering your buck and whatever gasper goo was on your trot line

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No one is going to be able to survive on their own. You will need at least a neighborhood working together.

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So something resembling a commune?

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It is a fallacy in my opinon that people can "go at it alone" in most areas (maybe if you live in Alaska or something maybe) with even remotely close to modern tools. Generally when they mean "be indepedenent" means pulling your own weight.
More than likely it'll end up being some sort of group where everyone has a general sense of how to bring food to the table and keep the tools functioning.

My guess is these skillsets are going to be pretty valuable:
Agricultural for raw food and other imputs.
Food processing(Cheese, dried foods) so people can be fed throughout the year.
Hunter/Trappers for food and keeping a watch from raiders.
Metalworkers/mechanists to make/repair tools.
Tailors/Leatherworkers for clothes so you don't freeze to death.
Healthcare workers so you don't die of lockjaw.
Carpenters for woodwork (I have seen cultures where all women are required to be carpenters to be married).
Chemists for semi-modern pharmasuteicals and fertilizers
Glassworkers for a lot of the above.
Someone who can make paper from anything.
Etc.

My neighborhood seems as well prepared as we can be. When the riots were happening a few yeas ago, we got together and discussed possible scenarios regarding civil un rest.

We are EXTREMELY well armed. Plenty of canned food, prepped water, etc. I'm guessing if everything went down - electricity, water, internet - we could last a few weeks before having to forage.

I'm guessing most people would have trouble going 4 hours.

fasthorse05 said:

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Did anyone put this out here yesterday?

I have no idea who the author is, but if the facts are indeed facts, then I suspect some places will actually have shortages.

If there are any shortages, I'd bet they'll be politically allocated to specific states.




Speaking of a distraction

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It's the 3rd and 2nd world that will be screwed. The 1st world will be paying a lot more, but will still be able to find food. Actually might be good for the health of this nation if we had a few more hungry folks.

HA. The average American doesn't even have a week's worth of groceries in their home and doesn't understand that food doesn't come from the grocery store. So many people would be screwed in the event of a major emergency.

Depends on how you define "real" third-world shortage.

Water shortages and access to clean water would result in conflict and violence. Those correlate in rough parts of the world.

Here in USA, people at the store clash shopping carts arguing over tee-pee and ask for a manager to get more breadsticks.

A legitimate attack on our water infrastructure would send most into a craze.

agsalaska said:

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RoadkillBBQ said:

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Boo Weekley said:

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We think a real "struggle" or "hardship" is when Wi-Fi goes in and out for a bit…or when someone calls you the wrong pronoun or says a word you don't like. We are absolutely F***ED if we ever have any real shortages of any kind. Even if it's the type of shortage where it's not the end of the world, the panic induced overreaction will be chaotic and violent. Get the F out of the cities as soon as there is any type of real shortage or struggle.

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Screw that, I'm staying. I've always wanted to be a warlord. I'll run my cul-de-sac with an iron fist. My soccer mom harem will be second to none.

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Me too. I aint going anywhere. I have a lake within walking distance for fish and water and plenty of deer within easy reach. Our little peninsula out here can sustain itself for a long time.

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You're little paradise would be overrun in short order by starving masses, and you along with it

Captain Pablo said:

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agsalaska said:

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RoadkillBBQ said:

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Boo Weekley said:

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We think a real "struggle" or "hardship" is when Wi-Fi goes in and out for a bit…or when someone calls you the wrong pronoun or says a word you don't like. We are absolutely F***ED if we ever have any real shortages of any kind. Even if it's the type of shortage where it's not the end of the world, the panic induced overreaction will be chaotic and violent. Get the F out of the cities as soon as there is any type of real shortage or struggle.

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Screw that, I'm staying. I've always wanted to be a warlord. I'll run my cul-de-sac with an iron fist. My soccer mom harem will be second to none.

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Me too. I aint going anywhere. I have a lake within walking distance for fish and water and plenty of deer within easy reach. Our little peninsula out here can sustain itself for a long time.

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You're little paradise would be overrun in short order by starving masses, and you along with it

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Exactly.

LOYAL AG said:

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UTExan said:

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If people learn to grow, harvest and mill field corn, oats and wheat and cultivate potatoes in their yards, they will be better off nutritionally anyway.

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The vast majority don't have a yard to do that in. 86% of Americans live in cities and suburbs. MAYBE those in the suburbs can do this but those in the city cannot.

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You can grow lots of potatoes in barrels with vertical garden arrangements for vegetables. People in suburbs almost always have a decent size park which can be converted to grain crops (i.e. carbohydrates). Living in a crappy little city apartment calls for relocation.

Retired FBI Agent said:

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Depends on how you define "real" third-world shortage.

Water shortages and access to clean water would result in conflict and violence. Those correlate in rough parts of the world.

Here in USA, people at the store clash shopping carts arguing over tee-pee and ask for a manager to get more breadsticks.

A legitimate attack on our water infrastructure would send most into a craze.

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That's why we all need rudimentary home water filter capacity and hopefully, rainwater harvesting.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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If we were to get into a situation with real city life altering shortages, your ammo, and land will only sustain you for a short period of time.

Even if you're high fenced you won't be able to stop the poachers for long. The masses will over run you and the wild game will be depleted in short order.

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Uplifting!

We are abandoning the house first sign of SHTF during this next wave of hysteria and getting out of the city. Have already told the wife that if/when I make that call...do not argue with me. Just get in the car and we are going. Hopefully, I exaggerated the threat in which case we simply come back home later.

I already have the go bag stocked and I keep my car fueled up since I don't drive it all that much anyway. We will die in East Texas with family amongst the pines rather than fighting off hordes of Democrat zombies here in the city.

Shoefly! said:

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I can skin a buck, run a trotline. But no, they will be screwed and will be at your gate pilfering and searching for food.

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EXACTLY what I thought when I saw the thread title. A country boy will survive.

Honestly, though, reading through this thread brings up a question for you Ag guys. I have the ability to have a hedge garden at the ranch, though I don't have the time to tend it on a consistent basis. It's 3 hours away from Austin, and I get there 2-3 times a month.

I was originally thinking of throwing down some cucumbers, peppers and corn, but after reading this thread, I'm wondering if the better play isn't setting out onions and planting a ****ton of sweet potatoes. It's a hedge, after all.

What thinks F16?

Well, if the tin foil hat brigade is right (and by that I mean the really far out there types who believe the X-Files are real), Biden has ordered all railroads to cease shipping grain, with the intention of starving at least 300 million Americans to death.

While the railroads are having issues like everything, which affects all goods including grain, there is no Biden ordered shutdown of grain shipments.

icrymyselftosleep said:

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Bidens leg hairs said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Shoefly! said:

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I can skin a buck, run a trotline. But no, they will be screwed and will be at your gate pilfering and searching for food.

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They'll also be pilfering your buck and whatever gasper goo was on your trot line

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No one is going to be able to survive on their own. You will need at least a neighborhood working together.

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So something resembling a commune?

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Communes definitely serve a purpose at the small and homogenous level. Typically when it is all about survival. They would usually be self-policing and you better contribute or you'll be sent packing. Did you think you were making some sort of witty point? Imagine if nuclear families operated purely as a free-market/capitalist structure.

Might need to go back to the drawing board with your "clever gotcha's".

chase128 said:

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I'd be more worried about shortages of medications. Folks can figure out food, but we can't make our own medicine.

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We might see the elimination for the need of high blood pressure and cholesterol medications due to weight loss because of shortages….and eating soylent green.