If desperate Germany has lots of coal!Marcus Brutus said:74OA said:
Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place. It's a predicament of its own making, for sure, but that doesn't change the economic consequences of abruptly cutting off Russian energy. In the meantime:
"By the middle of the year, Russian oil imports to Germany are expected to be halved. By the end of the year, we aim to be almost independent," a document published by the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action said. The plan also calls for coal deliveries from Russia to end by the autumn.
Habeck confirmed that current contracts with Russian companies to import energy will not be renewed. He also acknowledged that Germany would only be able to wean itself off Russian gas deliveries by mid-2024."
HARD CHOICES
Then someone else will have to be shorted to provide that oil to them, which means oil prices rise significantly because of overall supply reduction, or Russia sells its oil to others that were shorted. This is all whack a mole.
The US is not producing more because of Biden, so we arent going to be selling it to them. Who is? It looks like much higher oil prices because of supply constraints.
Very MessyAlaskanAg99 said:AgResearch said:
BASF
Steam crackers
/thread
It's war. It's complicated, it's messy.
This should seem obvious but I think a lot of people just want their pound of flesh. Which I completely understand.MouthBQ98 said:
As a pragmatic concern, they can't quit cold Turkey. They'll have to move incrementally. As bad as doing business with Russia is right now, collapsing the German (and European) economies into an energy driven recession would be worse right now.
No, we won't and we can't because of interdependency. Hopefully, the trend away from them continues and picks up speed so that in a few years we can cut them off at least for anything critical.BTHOtrolls said:
We may not want to throw too many's stones at Germany.
If China blockades Taiwan, it won't matter whether a Democrat or Republican is in office, we won't shut down our imports / dependence on their goods.
Quote:
. . .
Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Monday that he had appointed the German government's regulator for electricity, gas and other core industries in temporary control of the German subsidiary of Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom.
Gazprom had announced on Friday that it was separating from its Gazprom Germania subsidiary, having previously been the sole owner. It did not make clear whether the organization had been sold, or who it planned to leave in control.
Habeck said that the company controlled critical infrastructure in Germany and that the lack of clarity over its ownership led to the temporary step. The Bundesnetzagentur regulator is scheduled to control the company until the end of September.
"Ordering the trusteeship serves both the maintenance of public security and order and the maintenance of supply security," Habeck said. "Gazprom Germania GmbH [plc] with its headquarters in Berlin is a domestic company."
The company is primarily involved in gas trade, transportation and storage, and owns other companies in the German gas industry.
. . .
Quote:
. . .
Germany's government said on Wednesday it has received assurances from Russia that Europe would not have to pay for Russian gas supplies in rubles.
Olaf Scholz's office said Russian President Vladimir Putin told the German Chancellor that European companies could continue paying in euros or dollars.
In a phone call with Scholz, Putin said the money would be paid into Gazprom Bank and then transferred in rubles to Russia, a German statement said. The bank is not currently subject to sanctions.
"Scholz did not agree to this procedure in the conversation, but asked for written information to better understand the procedure," the statement added.
. . .
ham98 said:
https://inf.news/en/news/d7ca400a6c1ff7768ec7945827e23d79.html
German food prices are already exploding. If the lights go off the current German gov't will fail
I can't believe that this has not happened - if I was Ukraine I would just demand the payments for the gas and let Germany pay Ukraine until Russia cut off the supply. When this is done if I were Ukraine I would charge Russia a 50% carry cost on any and all gas sales that run thru the pipeline until it's country is rebuiltAlaskanAg99 said:
How long before Poland and Ukraine simply shut down the pipelines going through their countries? There's more than 1 way to stop the sales...
ham98 said:
https://inf.news/en/news/d7ca400a6c1ff7768ec7945827e23d79.html
German food prices are already exploding. If the lights go off the current German gov't will fail
Quote:
'What a legacy for Merkel' Germany humiliated as Russia sanctions hit wall
FORMER GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel has been left red-faced after sanctions against Russia hit a wall due to the country's reliance on Russian energy.
By ANTONY ASHKENAZ 00:00, Wed, Apr 6, 2022 | UPDATED: 00:02, Wed, Apr 6, 2022
Germany has been slammed by Ukraine and allies in the European Union for resisting calls to issue an immediate ban on Russia's oil and natural gas exports. The recent reports of Russian atrocities in Bucha have renewed calls for sanctions on Russian energy - the country's biggest export. However, Germany's dependence on Russian gas means the country could face major blackouts.
Europe's largest economy is particularly dependent on Russian natural gas.
Fifty five percent of its natural gas, 52 percent of its hard coal and 34 percent of its oil from Russia.
This January alone, Berlin purchased 2.6billion (almost 2.2billion) worth of oil and gas imports from Russia.
GB News host Darren Grimes slammed former German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her decision to greenlight the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The pipeline flows from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, and Moscow claims it would double the amount of gas flowing into the EU.
Mr Grimes tweeted: "What a legacy Merkel & her pipeline has left Germany: as world reels from latest horrors in Ukraine, the EU is preparing to 'hit Moscow with tougher sanctions.
But Germany is resisting pressure from Kyiv and European allies for an immediate embargo on the import of Russian gas.'"....
....
Ukraine can only whine, they are powerless n this matter. Oh they could blow up the pipeline, that would cause all types of problems with Europe.jws87ag said:I can't believe that this has not happened - if I was Ukraine I would just demand the payments for the gas and let Germany pay Ukraine until Russia cut off the supply. When this is done if I were Ukraine I would charge Russia a 50% carry cost on any and all gas sales that run thru the pipeline until it's country is rebuiltAlaskanAg99 said:
How long before Poland and Ukraine simply shut down the pipelines going through their countries? There's more than 1 way to stop the sales...
This is correct. But also consider this. Ukraine has discovered massive NG reserves within it's borders. One reason Putin invaded was so that Ukraine couldn't develop them and cut RU out of the market. Why pay Putin when you can pay someone closer to 'home' without all of the political complexities. Plus the agriculture. This just isn't about getting the old USSSR gang back together, it was about resources and the future.Polaris75 said:Ukraine can only whine, they are powerless n this matter. Oh they could blow up the pipeline, that would cause all types of problems with Europe.jws87ag said:I can't believe that this has not happened - if I was Ukraine I would just demand the payments for the gas and let Germany pay Ukraine until Russia cut off the supply. When this is done if I were Ukraine I would charge Russia a 50% carry cost on any and all gas sales that run thru the pipeline until it's country is rebuiltAlaskanAg99 said:
How long before Poland and Ukraine simply shut down the pipelines going through their countries? There's more than 1 way to stop the sales...
The sooner this war ends the better for the entire world.
AlaskanAg99 said:
How long before Poland and Ukraine simply shut down the pipelines going through their countries? There's more than 1 way to stop the sales...
Great post.AlaskanAg99 said:This is correct. But also consider this. Ukraine has discovered massive NG reserves within it's borders. One reason Putin invaded was so that Ukraine couldn't develop them and cut RU out of the market. Why pay Putin when you can pay someone closer to 'home' without all of the political complexities. Plus the agriculture. This just isn't about getting the old USSSR gang back together, it was about resources and the future.Polaris75 said:Ukraine can only whine, they are powerless n this matter. Oh they could blow up the pipeline, that would cause all types of problems with Europe.jws87ag said:I can't believe that this has not happened - if I was Ukraine I would just demand the payments for the gas and let Germany pay Ukraine until Russia cut off the supply. When this is done if I were Ukraine I would charge Russia a 50% carry cost on any and all gas sales that run thru the pipeline until it's country is rebuiltAlaskanAg99 said:
How long before Poland and Ukraine simply shut down the pipelines going through their countries? There's more than 1 way to stop the sales...
The sooner this war ends the better for the entire world.
So yes, we hope this war ends soon, but the stakes are much too high and that's exactly why it won't. The fallout from this is going to be extraordinarily painful for many. I was listening to a radio show on how Brazil is going to circumvent the sanctions for RU fertilizer. When people are hungry, governments collapse. The 2nd stage/ripple is now starting to happen.
Even IF the war ended tonight at midnight, harvests are already screwed and it would take a minimum 9 months to normalize. The longer this goes on, the messier it will get.
You are correct about the effects on the food supply being a huge underplayed story coming out of this war (because we haven't really seen the effects, yet, and will not for some time to come), but you are wrong about Putin focusing on the East. He wants to restore Imperial Russia. Ukraine is vital to that goal. With it, he can turn to the Baltic States and proceed with indulging this fantasy. Without, he really doesn't have anything to show for tens of thousands of dead, a depleted military, and a big economic setback.Polaris75 said:Great post.AlaskanAg99 said:This is correct. But also consider this. Ukraine has discovered massive NG reserves within it's borders. One reason Putin invaded was so that Ukraine couldn't develop them and cut RU out of the market. Why pay Putin when you can pay someone closer to 'home' without all of the political complexities. Plus the agriculture. This just isn't about getting the old USSSR gang back together, it was about resources and the future.Polaris75 said:Ukraine can only whine, they are powerless n this matter. Oh they could blow up the pipeline, that would cause all types of problems with Europe.jws87ag said:I can't believe that this has not happened - if I was Ukraine I would just demand the payments for the gas and let Germany pay Ukraine until Russia cut off the supply. When this is done if I were Ukraine I would charge Russia a 50% carry cost on any and all gas sales that run thru the pipeline until it's country is rebuiltAlaskanAg99 said:
How long before Poland and Ukraine simply shut down the pipelines going through their countries? There's more than 1 way to stop the sales...
The sooner this war ends the better for the entire world.
So yes, we hope this war ends soon, but the stakes are much too high and that's exactly why it won't. The fallout from this is going to be extraordinarily painful for many. I was listening to a radio show on how Brazil is going to circumvent the sanctions for RU fertilizer. When people are hungry, governments collapse. The 2nd stage/ripple is now starting to happen.
Even IF the war ended tonight at midnight, harvests are already screwed and it would take a minimum 9 months to normalize. The longer this goes on, the messier it will get.
Link to daily starvation n the world. That number will grow over the next few months, bigly!
https://www.worldometers.info/
Russia's target has always been the east. They cause a mess up north but no interest, it is all about natural resources and farm land just as u stated.
They will not lose this war, the west left wants to keep it going as n there is opportunity n a crisis.
The poor around the world will foot the bill.
Poland/Ukraine want no part of being between two belligerents; ticking off both Russia and Germany. It will take years, if it happens ever, for Germany to divorce itself from it's dependence on Russian gas.jws87ag said:I can't believe that this has not happened - if I was Ukraine I would just demand the payments for the gas and let Germany pay Ukraine until Russia cut off the supply. When this is done if I were Ukraine I would charge Russia a 50% carry cost on any and all gas sales that run thru the pipeline until it's country is rebuiltAlaskanAg99 said:
How long before Poland and Ukraine simply shut down the pipelines going through their countries? There's more than 1 way to stop the sales...
HumbleAg04 said:
Maybe those arrogant ****ers shouldn't have been laughing when Trump told them this would happen.
Quote:
U.S. President Donald Trump launched a sharp public attack on Germany on Wednesday for supporting a Baltic Sea gas pipeline deal with Russia, saying Berlin had become "a captive to Russia" and he criticized it for failing to raise defense spending more.
Trump renewed his call for other NATO allies to pay in more to the Western alliance after years in which U.S. taxpayers have, he said, borne an "unfair" share of military spending.
"I think these countries have to step it up, not over a 10 year period, they have to step it up immediately. Germany is a rich country, they talk about increasing it a tiny bit by 2030. Well they could increase it immediately, tomorrow, and have no problem," Trump said.
"If you look at it, Germany is a captive of Russia. They got rid of their coal plants, they got rid of their nuclear, they're getting so much of their oil and gas from Russia. I think it is something NATO has to look at. It is very inappropriate."
