hph6203 said:
The point is that if EVs are going to be a mainstream product a person shouldn't have to consider those circumstances to avoid issues. EVs are still in the early phase of adoption. The consistent theme on this thread is some people deny the problems that exist with EVs and others believe those problems are unlikely to be resolved.
The charging issues appear to be one that is going to be resolved by the end of the decade from an onboard hardware/charging hardware standpoint. In other words the ideal scenario will be lacking in significant inconvenience. Turning that ideal scenario into the norm scenario might take another decade. Over that same period the cost down/rapidity of production for EVs is going to improve at a rate faster than ICE vehicles can keep up.
Meaning that a comparable EV to an ICE vehicle by 2035 is going to be cheaper and more performant and the totality of tradeoffs/benefits of an EV will exceed the tradeoffs/benefits of ICE vehicles. It will likely always be the case that a stop in an EV will take longer than filling up a gas tank, but the financial tradeoffs for acquiring that speed of refueling will be prohibitive for the norm consumer and the norm consumer typically does more than just fill their tank when driving long distances. They're not doing an F1 style efficient refueling stop.
The norm consumer is not going to pay 15% more for a vehicle upfront and 3x as much on an ongoing basis to save 10 minutes every 4 hours of driving, because the norm person isn't driving routinely driving 9 hours in a day.
Right now an EV is still relatively an enthusiast product, and an ICE vehicle is the practical product. That will generally reverse by 2035.
The appropriate way to analyze technology is to look at what the best forms of the technology is doing today and then understanding that the best becomes the norm over time provided that the market persists long enough to make the best the norm. With China at 50% market penetration and Europe at 30% penetration the scenario where EV demand collapses is approaching 0% likelihood.
A Model 3 LR RWD gets ~4.9 miles/kWh. A Porsche Taycan gets 70% battery charge in 15 minutes. Combine the efficiency of the Model 3 with the charging capabilities of a Taycan and you get a vehicle that drives 350 miles on an initial charge and adds 270 miles on a recharge in 15 minutes. Or one 10 minute maximum loss of time for every 4 hours of driving beyond the initial range capacity.
The problem for EVs previously was whether there was going to be enough electricity production/infrastructure expansion to permit their adoption, because it's an enthusiast device now, but with the expansion of AI training requirements, which is a broadly useful technology to society with substantial energy demands the rapidity of energy additions has to improve and EVs can piggyback on that energy demand expansion requirements.
That will only reverse if the infrastructure of EV chargers gets built up enough. LOTS of people that would buy cars can't just charge them at home. So they would need charging stations around the area to solve that issue with them. And the same with longer trips - until the infrastructure is built up, the "range anxiety" will continue to be a real thing.
Now, I'm not saying those problems can't be solved. They obviously can. But, 2035 is an aggressive schedule. I'm not sure it could be done by then.
BTW, there's another phenomenon that hasn't really been addressed. Public acceptance - will the AVERAGE person buy one?
I had the example a month or so again when I almost rented a Rubicon until I realized it was the 4xe and didn't want to deal with having to find some charging stations in West Conshohocken, PA. And I'm a HUGE tech guy that thinks EVs are a good idea. I mean, without the mandates and *****
What about the average folks that aren't techies? They will always be more hesitant since it's a HUGE change from how they've always done things.
I also mentioned that it was a 4xe to another lady who was looking for a vehicle (you pick out your own vehicle) and she immediately balked. That's the stuff that will have to change first before broad adoption.