Probability of ICE fire: 1.5%
Average cost of ICE fire: $11,700 (2022 data, $2.6 billion direct damage, 222,000 incidents)
R = P x C
.15 x 11,700 = 175.50
Probability of EV fire (based upon your post): .025%
175.50 = .00025 x C
Solve for C.
It's $702,000. That's the arithmetic. That's where the statement "you're basically arguing based upon known data that each fire would destroy the car, a house, and a neighboring house." Came from. Even if you 30x the probability and 2x the cost per incident it is a break even risk profile.
Not every EV fire involves the battery pack, not every EV fire occurs in a structure, a significant proportion of the fires are the result of a collision (half or more), and the risk profile of EV batteries are improving as the risks become better understood.
My argument is that after it all shakes out the average EV fire cost will be higher than ICE fires, but at a rate low enough that it is a negligible difference in total risk profile if not favoring EVs. My opinion currently aligns with known data, yours does not. You are, again, relying upon assumptions despite your protests that you're not.
It is not a smart guy schtick, it is merely expecting you to validate your claims other than "trust me bro." Your fantasy of reality is not reality.