VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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techno-ag said:

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Billions of dollars later, where are those charging stations?

https://dailycaller.com/2024/04/01/biden-infrastructure-bill-billions-ev-chargers-slow-progress/

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Well about $100 million of that was rerouted to Biden and his cronies which includes his brother and son. Another $200 million was "lost" due to inflation when they put the deposit down with whatever contractor "won" the bid (Pelosi or Obama relative I am sure) and the rest well it takes time...

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10% for the big guy.

EV push, good for getting people to buy the hybrids they made fun of 15-20 years ago.

EV's are pushed by our lovely political left as a solution for greenhouse gas emissions driving global warming. Every bit of that is BS.

Ouch! The bad men up top will NOT like this! 😎 pic.twitter.com/0jiU3M3R7Z

— Ivor Cummins (@FatEmperor) April 3, 2024

People keep saying we need to decarbonise our economies in a decade and pointedly ignore the single example of where an industrialised country managed to do exactly this. https://t.co/jxfiQVtHsR

— Peter Hague PhD (@peterrhague) April 3, 2024

Even if one accepted the fictional notion about the need to 'de carbonize' the economy, the funds would be much better spent transitioning to a nuclear power based energy infrastructure vs. mandating EV's as Democrats/communists want to do.

Humorous aside, every Tesla since 2012 can be stolen via a pokeman card? LOLOL.

That last looks like an April Fools joke. Sad that it actually seems believable given what we know about Kia/Hyundai thefts.

Battery tech keeps moving:

https://electrek.co/2024/04/04/storedot-ev-battery-cells-achieve-2000-consecutive-xfc-cycles/

Extremely fast charging with little degradation. 100 miles of charge in four minutes by 2026?

https://electrek.co/2024/04/03/new-solid-state-battery-cell-claims-industry-records-1300-mile-range/

1300 mile range solid state batteries?

https://electrek.co/2024/04/03/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-last-1-million-miles-15-yrs/

Batteries for busses with an almost 1 million mile warranty?

Need to see US companies making these advances

GAC06 said:

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Battery tech keeps moving:

https://electrek.co/2024/04/04/storedot-ev-battery-cells-achieve-2000-consecutive-xfc-cycles/

Extremely fast charging with little degradation. 100 miles of charge in four minutes by 2026?

https://electrek.co/2024/04/03/new-solid-state-battery-cell-claims-industry-records-1300-mile-range/

1300 mile range solid state batteries?

https://electrek.co/2024/04/03/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-last-1-million-miles-15-yrs/

Batteries for busses with an almost 1 million mile warranty?

Need to see US companies making these advances

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Utopia is just around the corner.

Sorry fanbois. Tesla drops plan for super cheap EV.

https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/05/tesla-abandons-low-cost-ev-robotaxi/amp/

FWIW I think Musk is denying this.

Musk needs to come out with the date on when the Model 2 or whatever he decides to call the small, $25k before subsidies Tesla will be available to purchase by consumers.

Bubblez said:

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Musk needs to come out with the date on when the Model 2 or whatever he decides to call the small, $25k before subsidies Tesla will be available to purchase by consumers.

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Swing and a miss.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-scraps-low-cost-car-plans-amid-fierce-chinese-ev-competition-2024-04-05/

April 5 (Reuters) - Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car that investors have been counting on to drive its growth into a mass-market automaker, according to three sources familiar with the matter and company messages seen by Reuters.

The absolute funniest part of this is if the reporting were true it would be indicative of the transition to EVs being faster, not slower. And no, they absolutely 100% do not need to clarify delivery timing of the $25k vehicle. They have already Osborned themselves enough with the Model 3 Refresh, the assumed Model Y refresh (what I'm waiting for), they don't need to throw a definitive waiting period for the next gen vehicle on top of that.

Reuters is lying (again)

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 5, 2024

👀

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 5, 2024

Tesla's Self Driving Lead Engineer

It is the beginning of the end!

— Ashok Elluswamy (@aelluswamy) April 1, 2024

Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 5, 2024

Nice to see more communist states continuing to realize the 'benefits' to raising taxes on BEV drivers;

Quote:

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As more electric vehicles hit the roads, states are grappling with the change in tax revenues they're seeing as a result. EV buyers don't pay gas taxes, slashing millions out of state highway budgets and making it hard to afford planned improvements. New Jersey is taking action on the issue with a controversial measure to charge EV owners an annual road tax, which will increase over the next four years to $290 in 2028.

The fee starts at $250 in July and will increase by $10 until 2028, when it reaches $290. EV buyers in the state will also have to pay four years of registration fees upfront, making it significantly more expensive to purchase a new electric model.

New Jersey isn't the only state that has tossed around ideas for extra taxes on electric buyers, but the move could put a dent in the already bumpy road EVs face. Price remains a significant hurdle for buyers, and automakers have struggled to deliver on promises of more affordable models.

Any upward movement in cost will likely deter more people from buying electric, though it's worth noting that New Jersey also offers a healthy $4,000 tax incentive that largely makes the tax a moot point. But, as InsideEVs pointed out, the state's funds to support that incentive often run out before the end of the year, leaving many buyers high and dry.

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It's a bit ironic how they cry about the cap on state and local taxes deductions for federal taxes though.

It's pretty much over for Tesla as a dominant player.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/03/tesla-q1-delivieries-reaction

The only thing I disagree with is if they make EVs pay 4 years up front. That makes no sense whatsoever.

Kansas Kid said:

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The only thing I disagree with is if they make EVs pay 4 years up front. That makes no sense whatsoever.

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I dunno. You pay two years upfront for a regular new car in Texas. I think it's good. Maybe people who think they're pulling one over on the man will think twice before taking the EV plunge in Jersey.

Do you ever ask yourself "Why did this happen?" When you read a piece of information, or do you always just assume it happened for the reason you think it happened without any consideration to alternative explanations?

I know the answer, just curious if you've ever even considered it yourself.

hph6203 said:

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Do you ever ask yourself "Why did this happen?" When you read a piece of information, or do you always just assume it happened for the reason you think it happened without any consideration to alternative explanations?

I know the answer, just curious if you've ever even considered it yourself.

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Sir, this is a Wendy's.

techno-ag said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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The only thing I disagree with is if they make EVs pay 4 years up front. That makes no sense whatsoever.

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I dunno. You pay two years upfront for a regular new car in Texas. I think it's good. Maybe people who think they're pulling one over on the man will think twice before taking the EV plunge in Jersey.

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Nice communists thoughts there. Let's treat different drivers and cars differently to get the outcome you want. That is what is a massive problem with government these days is politicians trying to shape the economy.

Exactly. Your parents shook keys in your face one too many times and you should be pissed about that. Ruined you.

Things that happened in the auto market in Q1 and to Tesla specifically:

1) Chinese vehicle demand collapse. BYD's sales collapsed 42% in Q1.

2) Houthi Red Sea attacks causing shipping diversions from China to Europe, delaying deliveries. Tesla does not produce the newly refreshed Model 3 in Berlin so their only source is from China.

3) Ecoterrorism attack on their Berlin factory that caused total production stoppage at the beginning of March. Factories don't just pop back in to full production after stoppages.

4) Model 3 production line upgrades/shift to production of the refreshed variant at Fremont that took longer than expected significantly impacting production and deliveries functionally leaving Tesla reliant on one vehicle, Model Y, for large segments during the quarter.

5) Model Y demand slow down due to the realization that it too will receive a similar or even more significant upgrade than the Model 3. Current model is mostly the same as the one introduced 4 years ago.

6) Auto market in general is slowing down as the backlog of demand got unwound and prices are beginning to fall, though not as pronounced as the Chinese market.

hph6203 said:

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Do you ever ask yourself "Why did this happen?" When you read a piece of information, or do you always just assume it happened for the reason you think it happened without any consideration to alternative explanations?

I know the answer, just curious if you've ever even considered it yourself.

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From the article:

"Tesla said lower production and deliveries stem partly from temporary logistical woes. They include factory shutdowns from ships avoiding Red Sea dangers and arson at its German plant.
Reality check: But analysts see more ominous problems like rising competition, slowing overall EV sales growth, and Tesla's aging lineup."

You believe Tesla, others don't. Stop acting like you're the only smart guy in the room.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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hph6203 said:

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Do you ever ask yourself "Why did this happen?" When you read a piece of information, or do you always just assume it happened for the reason you think it happened without any consideration to alternative explanations?

I know the answer, just curious if you've ever even considered it yourself.

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From the article:

"Tesla said lower production and deliveries stem partly from temporary logistical woes. They include factory shutdowns from ships avoiding Red Sea dangers and arson at its German plant.
Reality check: But analysts see more ominous problems like rising competition, slowing overall EV sales growth, and Tesla's aging lineup."

You believe Tesla, others don't. Stop acting like you're the only smart guy in the room.

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Put simply, Tesla built far more cars than they sold. Who are you gonna believe? EVangelists on here or your own eyes?

It's not believe. It's trackable. Everything is verifiable. It's not unknown about attacks on shipping lanes. It's not unknown that Tesla's factor was attacked at the beginning for March. VIN production is tracked out of their Fremont factory, so production rates of Model 3 out of the factory are relatively known. Model Y inventory production and inventories are likewise tracked.

hph6203 said:

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It's not believe. It's trackable. Everything is verifiable. It's not unknown about attacks on shipping lanes. It's not unknown that Tesla's factor was attacked at the beginning for March. VIN production is tracked out of their Fremont factory, so production rates of Model 3 out of the factory are relatively known. Model Y inventory production and inventories are likewise tracked.

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The problem with the narrative though is if factory production being impacted by the logistics issues caused the drop in sales, you would be correct and you should see a drop in inventory as they depleted cars made in previous quarters. The issue is that despite the drop in production from these issues they still had their largest ever increase in unsold inventory of finished cars which means they didn't have a lack of cars for sale, they had a drop in buyers.

Production and delivery are not simultaneous events. If they have back loaded production for the quarter and/or have delivery delays at the end of a quarter it can cause significant disparities in production and delivery numbers. You cannot understand it by looking at a single quarter. Is it possible that Tesla's demand collapsed 20% QoQ? Sure. But that is understood by looking at production/delivery disparity in a quarter compared to the following quarter, not by an individual quarter.

I'm not saying demand growth isn't slowing, but you're shifting from a functionally 2 model lineup as X, S and Cybertruck are inconsequential, to a single model for significant markets that has not been refreshed to any significant degree in 4 years with the other model being refreshed and also dealing with production/delivery delays. Model 3 refresh portends a Model Y refresh, which is likely negatively impacting Model Y demand.

There's a big difference between growth being slow and demand collapsing 20% QoQ. It's undoubtedly going to be a slower year for Tesla.

hph6203 said:

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Production and delivery are not simultaneous events. If they have back loaded production for the quarter and/or have delivery delays at the end of a quarter it can cause significant disparities in production and delivery numbers. You cannot understand it by looking at a single quarter. Is it possible that Tesla's demand collapsed 20% QoQ? Sure. But that is understood by looking at production/delivery disparity in a quarter compared to the following quarter, not by an individual quarter.

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Nah.

https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-sales-decline-elon-musk-20613265

Did you... read that article? It's not a discussion of disparities in production and deliveries for Q1. It is a discussion of business strategy for Tesla over the last 2 1/2 years.

hph6203 said:

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Did you... read that article? It's not a discussion of disparities in production and deliveries for Q1. It is a discussion of business strategy for Tesla over the last 2 1/2 years.

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And you said you cannot understand it by just looking at one quarter. The article goes into great detail about Tesla's many missteps, including the dubious notion of lowering prices to keep sales momentum up, which backfired bigly.

That is not disparities in production and delivery in a single quarter. That is a 30,000 ft view of the last 2.5 years.

Here. This guy gets paid money to track production/deliveries and is followed by analysts to help understand Tesla. These are his estimates of deliveries on March 5th before terrorists attacked their factory in Germany (fell to 409,000 by EoQ), analyst consensus was 433,000. He had the lowest estimate of all people well known enough to mention.

Q1 2024 Estimates as of March 5th and his estimates were dropping throughout the quarter:

Hi everybody. Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 2024 were as follows 14 days ago on Mar 10th:

• My Estimate: 420,000 (Was 435,000 on Mar 5)
• Analyst Consensus: 474,000 (Was 475,000 on Mar 5)

A new update I've just posted on Patreon is available here: https://t.co/pUFWcQhyOb pic.twitter.com/uLvATMfnEZ

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) March 24, 2024

Q1 2023 Delivery Model 3

Tesla delivered 422,875 cars a year ago in Q1 2023. They need to beat that to avoid headlines about negative growth. However, the botched Model 3 Highland upgrade at the Fremont factory and flat sales in Europe and China make this a very challenging quarter. The table shows 2023. pic.twitter.com/1J6umuUdh0

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) March 19, 2024

Look at Q1 2023 Model 3 actual deliveries in the U.S. vs. Q1 2024 Model 3 Delivery estimates in the U.S. See how there's a disparity of ~30,000 cars? That's logistical/factory issues.

Having to ship your vehicles around the south of Africa to get to Europe is another logistical issue that did not exist in Q1 2023. Having to deal with a factory getting attacked at the beginning of the final month of the quarter is another logistical issue that did not exist in Q1 2023. All of those things combine to result in a ~9% fall in deliveries YoY rather than a flat/slow growth YoY figure.

You'll also notice a reduction in deliveries from Q3 2023 to Q4 2023 in the U.S. despite growth in all other vehicle models and locations Why? Because they began slowing production for the Model 3 in anticipation of the refreshed Model 3 in the U.S.

Nice effort, but he can't comprehend the difference between slowed growth and reduced sales. You're about as likely to explain something to a rock.

GAC06 said:

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Nice effort, but he can't comprehend the difference between slowed growth and reduced sales. You're about as likely to explain something to a rock.

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Ah yes, the old "he can't understand that sales are just peachy" after their worst quarter in four years. Do go on and let us know that the stock falling 30% and sales plummeting is no big deal.

You don't even understand what that means. Tesla's deliveries could grow by 10 million vehicles over the next 6 years and their stock price could fall by 10%.

Tesla's current market cap is 516B
Toyota's current market cap is 397B

Tesla sold 1.8MM cars last year
Toyota sold >6x as many at 11.2MM

Tesla's value as a company is 30% higher than Toyota while selling 16% as many vehicles.

Just keep the faith.

Not thinking EVs are going to supplant fuel based vehicles is a perfectly reasonable take, doing it with the level of mockery and lack of understanding that you have should be embarrassing for you and yet you plow through.

You don't have 9 posts per day worth of insight and understanding over the last 14 years. You should post less, read more, try to understand the world where you live.

hph6203 said:

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You don't even understand what that means. Tesla's deliveries could grow by 10 million vehicles over the next 6 years and their stock price could fall by 10%.

Tesla's current market cap is 516B
Toyota's current market cap is 397B

Tesla sold 1.8MM cars last year
Toyota sold >6x as many at 11.2MM

Tesla's value as a company is 30% higher than Toyota while selling 16% as many vehicles.

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These statistics don't impart the significance/meaning you think they do.