***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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10:50a, 2/17/25
AG
Clown show.

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txags92
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In reply to 74OA • 11:14a, 2/17/25
AG
74OA said:
Clown show.

Sanctions and attrition haven't affected Russia's capabilities at all.

/s
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74OA
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9:43a, 2/18/25
AG
Small wonder that a premier multi-role aircraft is flying varied missions.

"About six months after they were first delivered, the Ukrainian F-16s are now being employed for both air defense and air-to-ground attack missions. In fact, after a recent video appeared to show an F-16 armed with bombs during a low pass, the first photo of a Viper (as the F-16 is nicknamed by its crews) armed with GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) has now emerged online."

FLEXIBLE
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B-1 83
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In reply to 74OA • 9:47a, 2/18/25
AG
Ivan's air defenses that depleted or are the F-16s outsmarting them?
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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74OA
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In reply to B-1 83 • 9:55a, 2/18/25
AG
B-1 83 said:
Ivan's air defenses that depleted or are the F-16s outsmarting them?
Some of both, I suspect, particularly as the F-16's defensive EW system was significantly modernized just before delivery to Ukraine. Overflying Russian airspace is still far too dangerous, but its air defenses have been degraded enough for the Ukrainian air force to work much closer to the front.

In the meantime, Ukraine is working towards a drones-only frontline. "Ukraine has set out the goal of establishing a 15-kilometer unmanned "kill zone" along the front lines, which would see the most advanced Ukrainian drone units deploy a mix of surveillance and strike drones against Russian troops, according to government and defense-industry officials."

UNMANNED
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GAC06
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In reply to 74OA • 10:19a, 2/18/25
AG
74OA said:
Small wonder that a premier multi-role aircraft is flying varied missions.

"About six months after they were first delivered, the Ukrainian F-16s are now being employed for both air defense and air-to-ground attack missions. In fact, after a recent video appeared to show an F-16 armed with bombs during a low pass, the first photo of a Viper (as the F-16 is nicknamed by its crews) armed with GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) has now emerged online."

FLEXIBLE


Impossible. A certain Russian expert told us they have no air to ground capability
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javajaws
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In reply to 74OA • 10:32a, 2/18/25
AG
74OA said:
B-1 83 said:
Ivan's air defenses that depleted or are the F-16s outsmarting them?
Some of both, I suspect, particularly as the F-16's defensive EW system was significantly modernized just before delivery to Ukraine. Overflying Russian airspace is still far too dangerous, but its air defenses have been degraded enough for the Ukrainian air force to work much closer to the front.

In the meantime, Ukraine is working towards a drones-only frontline. "Ukraine has set out the goal of establishing a 15-kilometer unmanned "kill zone" along the front lines, which would see the most advanced Ukrainian drone units deploy a mix of surveillance and strike drones against Russian troops, according to government and defense-industry officials."

UNMANNED
I knew when this war started it would finish completely different than when it started. In the beginning you had big expensive stuff moving around the battlefield and now we're moving to the inevitable drone swarm tactics.

Ukraine can pre-stage drones all across the front and re-task pilots as needed to different remote areas to control them. This lets them get by with less boots on the ground on the front lines. They can then move in reserves to assist in defending or taking land as needed (combined with the drones of course).
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docb
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11:07a, 2/18/25
AG
around 90 F-16s should make for a fairly competent air capability especially mixed in with the old Soviet planes and however many Mirages they can get their hands on. Maybe even a some Gripens before it's all over.
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74OA
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8:54a, 2/19/25
AG
A side benefit of Putin's war is stealing Ukraine's vast mineral resources to resolve Russia's strategic shortfall.

"The leaked strategy documents underscore the extent of Russia's vulnerability in the global resource market. The country's declining self-sufficiency in essential minerals threatens its economic and strategic stability. As it grapples with a shrinking resource base and rising import dependence, Russia may face increasing difficulties in maintaining its industrial and military capabilities without significant foreign reliance."

THEFT
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txags92
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In reply to 74OA • 10:46a, 2/19/25
AG
74OA said:
A side benefit The main purpose of Putin's war is stealing Ukraine's vast mineral resources to resolve Russia's strategic shortfall.

"The leaked strategy documents underscore the extent of Russia's vulnerability in the global resource market. The country's declining self-sufficiency in essential minerals threatens its economic and strategic stability. As it grapples with a shrinking resource base and rising import dependence, Russia may face increasing difficulties in maintaining its industrial and military capabilities without significant foreign reliance."

THEFT
FIFY
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74OA
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In reply to txags92 • 11:05a, 2/19/25
AG
txags92 said:
74OA said:
A side benefit The main purpose of Putin's war is stealing Ukraine's vast mineral resources to resolve Russia's strategic shortfall.

"The leaked strategy documents underscore the extent of Russia's vulnerability in the global resource market. The country's declining self-sufficiency in essential minerals threatens its economic and strategic stability. As it grapples with a shrinking resource base and rising import dependence, Russia may face increasing difficulties in maintaining its industrial and military capabilities without significant foreign reliance."

THEFT
FIFY
Not really. What Putin the dictator fears the most is the hugely subversive example of a free, prosperous and democratic Ukraine on his doorstep for all Russians to observe as an alternative to his authoritarian rule.

Stealing Ukraine's land, wealth and population and fueling the fiction of recreating Greater Russia are all just bonuses to his primary goal of shielding his own people from becoming infected with Ukraine's political virus.
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74OA
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11:55a, 2/20/25
AG
Fighting the drone war in Ukraine on the electromagnetic spectrum. How drones are continually evolving.

"The new war exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's extremely powerful but bulky EW systems, which became liabilities lying within FPV drone range. They were forced to retreat a full 10-15km away from the front line, diluting their effect. Meanwhile, Ukraine began to make progress expanding its own EW capacity, with local producers scaling up production of trench-level EW systems."

MOVE-COUNTERMOVE
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to 74OA • 12:14p, 2/20/25
AG
When people ask what Ukraine could bring to NATO, it's this right here:
Quote:
For now, most drones are still jammable. And Ukraine still has the edge in EW. "They're certainly quicker than the Russians," says Mr Withington. The war has also made them quicker than many Western competitors. Mr Filimonov visited 15 military exhibitions around the world last year. The EW technology he saw was not only pricierAmerican and European amplifiers are two to three times more expensive than the Chinese ones commonly found in Ukrainian kitbut also obsolete. "These technologies are somewhere in 2021," he says, witheringly. "Everything they are producing is, for the moment, useless on the front line."


They're already living and fighting the next war. We're still living in the past. If we want to be prepared for a near peer conflict, we need this kind of expertise. War gaming against Ukraine and learning how to fight and adapt in the EW space is likely to prove critical when fighting a country like China that can crank out EW equipment cheaper and faster.
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74OA
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 12:50p, 2/20/25
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
When people ask what Ukraine could bring to NATO, it's this right here:
Quote:
For now, most drones are still jammable. And Ukraine still has the edge in EW. "They're certainly quicker than the Russians," says Mr Withington. The war has also made them quicker than many Western competitors. Mr Filimonov visited 15 military exhibitions around the world last year. The EW technology he saw was not only pricierAmerican and European amplifiers are two to three times more expensive than the Chinese ones commonly found in Ukrainian kitbut also obsolete. "These technologies are somewhere in 2021," he says, witheringly. "Everything they are producing is, for the moment, useless on the front line."


They're already living and fighting the next war. We're still living in the past. If we want to be prepared for a near peer conflict, we need this kind of expertise. War gaming against Ukraine and learning how to fight and adapt in the EW space is likely to prove critical when fighting a country like China that can crank out EW equipment cheaper and faster.
Along with gutting the Russian military, this insight is Ukraine's gift to us. Better to adapt now while we have time to do so in an orderly fashion, rather than willy-nilly in the middle of a big fight of our own.

So, while it might not be apparent, many of DOD's current acquisition and logistics decisions today are being driven by lesson's learned from Ukraine, along with developing fresh TT&P for field operations under these new combat conditions.

Having said that, not everything pertinent to Putin's War applies equally to us. We operate the finest air force on the planet, for example, and many of Ukraine's clever adaptations are to overcome its lack of meaningful air power.

I don't want to derail but, as just one illustration, here's a three-part series on some of the ways the Army is adjusting to new combat reality. Much the same change applies to all the Services:

ONE
TWO
THREE
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to 74OA • 1:06p, 2/20/25
AG
We do have a very capable air force, but it is highly vulnerable on the ground. In a conflict with China, we won't have very many places to operate from, and we will likely be at a naval disadvantage that pushes carriers out to sea. China also has what might be a very capable air force. We cannot assume that we will have air dominance or air superiority in the next fight. We could very well be in Ukraine's shoes the next time we're on a war.
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74OA
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 1:09p, 2/20/25
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
We do have a very capable air force, but it is highly vulnerable on the ground. In a conflict with China, we won't have very many places to operate from, and we will likely be at a naval disadvantage that pushes carriers out to sea. China also has what might be a very capable air force. We cannot assume that we will have air dominance or air superiority in the next fight. We could very well be in Ukraine's shoes the next time we're on a war.
I'm not making any assumptions and nor is USAF, just pointing out that not everything from Ukraine's fight is directly applicable to us. Start a conversation over on "Military" if you'd like to discuss more.

Here's an example of an Air Force change-related post already over there. BASING
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Waffledynamics
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10:22p, 2/20/25
AG
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74OA
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12:18p, 2/21/25
AG
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PJYoung
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12:30p, 2/21/25
AG
There are reports that 8 Russian drone operators were severely injured but Russia says not true.
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docb
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5:48p, 2/21/25
AG
https://kyivindependent.com/merz-voices-support-for-ukraine-ahead-of-elections/
The potential new German chancellor appears to be more aggressive than Scholz on helping Ukraine. Apparently he is the front runner to win but Elon Musk is rallying hard for a more pro Russian candidate. Makes you wonder? Maybe Ukraine can get those Taurus missiles after all.
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74OA
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7:41p, 2/21/25
AG


Today's SITREP.
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Rossticus
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7:43p, 2/21/25
Will be interesting to see how this impacts US talks with Russia.
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GAC06
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In reply to 74OA • 7:48p, 2/21/25
AG
Good. Hopefully it's something they can make happen soon but it seems like they tend to go slowly.
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rootube
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In reply to GAC06 • 8:25p, 2/21/25
AG
GAC06 said:
Good. Hopefully it's something they can make happen soon but it seems like they tend to go slowly.


I predict this will have little impact. Germany is the biggest economy in Europe but they outsourced their security to the US and they have a very small military industrial base to give Ukraine what they need in the next six months which is when they are going to need it if the US turns off military aid. Of course the "experts" said Russia would take all of Ukraine in three days so who knows.
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lb3
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8:27p, 2/21/25
AG
The mineral deal is interesting. It gives the US not only a vested interest in preserving peace after the war, but also gives the US an interest in minimizing Russia's territorial gain.
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sclaff
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9:56a
AG
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Teslag
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In reply to sclaff • 10:13a
AG
That's a ridiculous deal. We didn't send them $500 billion total. And the the aid we did give them was mostly book value of weapons, some of which was produced during the Cold War to be used against Russia.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Teslag • 10:20a
AG
Teslag said:
That's a ridiculous deal. We didn't send them $500 billion total. And the the aid we did give them was mostly book value of weapons, some of which was produced during the Cold War to be used against Russia.
Why is it "ridiculous"? Because it favors the USA? Freedom isn't free, and it's far better to consider our aid a loan to be paid back rather than yet another domestic inflationary handout to a foreign country that almost certainly wouldn't do the same if the situation were reversed.

I'm as in favor of effing up the russians as anybody that's posted on this thread, but if we can get the Ukranians to pay for their own sovereignty then how could anybody be against that?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Nagler
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In reply to agent-maroon • 10:35a
AG
agent-maroon said:
Teslag said:
That's a ridiculous deal. We didn't send them $500 billion total. And the the aid we did give them was mostly book value of weapons, some of which was produced during the Cold War to be used against Russia.
Why is it "ridiculous"? Because it favors the USA? Freedom isn't free, and it's far better to consider our aid a loan to be paid back rather than yet another domestic inflationary handout to a foreign country that almost certainly wouldn't do the same if the situation were reversed.

I'm as in favor of effing up the russians as anybody that's posted on this thread, but if we can get the Ukranians to pay for their own sovereignty then how could anybody be against that?


This. Screw Russia but we don't have to give everyone everything.

Ukraine can spend some money if they want to win. They need to mobilize everyone if they're serious, not just the olds.
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74OA
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10:49a
AG
Interesting look at the move-countermove interaction between offensive drones and defensive EW in Ukraine.

"The war of waves has been pivotal to the wider conflict. A continuous and intense contest between munitions and jammers is driving rapid change, as each side scrambles to find, monitor, occupy and attack increasingly rare gaps in the spectrum where signals can get through. "What you're seeing in Ukraine is electromagnetic maneuver warfare in action," says Thomas Withington, a fellow at the RUSI think-tank."

EW
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rootube
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In reply to agent-maroon • 10:56a
AG
agent-maroon said:
Teslag said:
That's a ridiculous deal. We didn't send them $500 billion total. And the the aid we did give them was mostly book value of weapons, some of which was produced during the Cold War to be used against Russia.
Why is it "ridiculous"? Because it favors the USA? Freedom isn't free, and it's far better to consider our aid a loan to be paid back rather than yet another domestic inflationary handout to a foreign country that almost certainly wouldn't do the same if the situation were reversed.

I'm as in favor of effing up the russians as anybody that's posted on this thread, but if we can get the Ukranians to pay for their own sovereignty then how could anybody be against that?


If you are in favor of "effing up" the Russians then consider the deal from the Ukrainian perspective. The deal includes no security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for forfeiting basically all mineral rights in their country. In the last several days Trump has.

Blamed Ukraine for the war
Called Zelenskyy the illegitimate leader of his country
Issued a reparations number TO UKRAINE many times the value of what we have given in aid
Excluded Ukraine from the negotiations for ending a war in their own country
Conceded that Ukraine will never join NATO
Conceded that Ukraine will need to give up more territory
Mike Johnson has clearly stated we have no intention of signing a deal for additional aid.

All this PRIOR to starting negotiations with Russia. Can you name a single Russian concession that the Trump team is discussing?

If I were Zelenskyy, I would be discussing mineral rights with a country willing to provide additional military guarantees.
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Teslag
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In reply to agent-maroon • 10:58a
AG
agent-maroon said:
Teslag said:
That's a ridiculous deal. We didn't send them $500 billion total. And the the aid we did give them was mostly book value of weapons, some of which was produced during the Cold War to be used against Russia.
Why is it "ridiculous"? Because it favors the USA? Freedom isn't free, and it's far better to consider our aid a loan to be paid back rather than yet another domestic inflationary handout to a foreign country that almost certainly wouldn't do the same if the situation were reversed.

I'm as in favor of effing up the russians as anybody that's posted on this thread, but if we can get the Ukranians to pay for their own sovereignty then how could anybody be against that?


It's ridiculous because we are taking far more from them than we have given to them with no security guarantees.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Teslag • 11:44a
AG
If "additional security guarantees" means American or any other NATO boots on the ground, then that's a hard no from me. What other country could offer these guarantees anyways? The Chicoms?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Teslag
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In reply to agent-maroon • 11:46a
AG
Weapons that don't make it easy for Russia to invade in the future.

If we aren't going to give Ukraine anything from now on what's their incentive to even work with us?
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P.U.T.U
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11:53a
AG

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