evan_aggie said:
Ag with kids said:
evan_aggie said:
So your border trend flipping all red is based off one election or what? More?
Because as I see it if you double the population along south texas, valley and add 500k transplants you risk texas going blue. I think any belief that the rio grande valley is going to add more electorates to republican vs democrat is ....fantasy.
I see you don't live in S Texas...
BTW...I like how you started this with a map showing 2018...one election. And now, one election isn't enough...
Ain't no one kicking a field goal on you with as fast as you're moving the goal posts...
Right. And when one election wasn't enough I posted 3. All 3 showing the the rio grande valley and every major city trends blue.
The question is by how much. You make the argument in one election it was "a little less blue". Ok. So only one person is moving goal posts by choosing one year, quoting a number of 10 counties.
I pray you don't work in the GOP planning and someone comes up with an actual strategy to keep Texas blue other than wishful thinking and a skin on the wall in the past.
You need to look deeper at voting patterns and polling as well as election history. The Valley has always been a heavy Dem stronghold. It has deep corruption and a history of manufacturing votes for Dems going back to LBJ. It is also a very fast growing area. The significance of it trending purple is not red is huge. What is happening is the Hispanics that have lived in Texas for generations are trending more and more GOP because they are culturally conservative and more importantly they are not happy with an open border. Most Hispanics in that region want people they know personally to be able to immigrate but they are not ok with what has happened the last few years with people from Central America coming and the cartel influence. They are waking up. It's also key that Republicans are winning local elections there so it takes away the ability for the Dems to dominate everything about how those areas are run including elections. It's not enough to swing the state but it definitely matters.
It's also not an option to close the State to other states so acting like it is is an old man yelling at clouds. We can't keep Californians or NYers or whatever from moving here but we can hope to attract the ones we want. Evidence seems to show that based on the polls that non native Texans were actually voting more Republican than native Texans in '18.
Shutting the border to the South or at least controlling it is a great idea but isn't happening with Brandon in charge. Abbott is making an effort but realistically it is a Federal issue and unless we secede we can't do much.
The problem in Texas is suburbs turning blue. Much of that from women. Folks who have grown fat and happy driving their Mercedes SUV and deciding to be offended by mean tweets. A lot of those are natives who have forgotten why Texas is so great and are living in a fantasy of how fragile it can be Education and media are a huge problem because they influence LIV's a great deal. By all data I have seen and also causal data the folks moving from California, NY, etc tend to be the Republicans and conservatives that finally had enough outside of a few folks moved due to their job. If they are moving here intentionally though they tend to lean Red. Some of the most outspoken conservatives I have seen that wave Trump flags in suburbia are from OOS.
The path to victory is to continue to shore up the base in the rural parts of Texas and look to win back some of the suburban vote (which I have some optimism for) while also making inroads in South Texas and the Hispanic community. Urban areas in Texas are going to be very tough sledding for the GOP. Then we have to hope we can get rid of Brandon in '24 and work to fix immigration. Sucks but that's the reality.
