Ukraine no longer counting casualties.
Zelensky willing to negotiate.
Kissinger hinting at massive concessions.

Seems like the end is nearing.

The feint worked.

ATX_AG_08 said:

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The feint worked.

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If it crystallized ukr forces in the north while major operations moved to the east, how can you claim otherwise?

The US spent a decade in Iraq and failed to demilitarize the insurgency. Russia kept the Ukrainians in front of them instead of "shock and awe" and now Ukr is depleted.

The Debt said:

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ATX_AG_08 said:

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The feint worked.

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If it crystallized ukr forces in the north while major operations moved to the east, how can you claim otherwise?

The US spent a decade in Iraq and failed to demilitarize the insurgency. Russia kept the Ukrainians in front of them instead of "shock and awe" and now Ukr is depleted.

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If it worked for now, tactical victory but strategic loss. 20 years plus of set back and absolutely wrecked a ton of equipment and men. Ukraine will be hurt worse but will have more resources to draw from to rebuild and rearm.

aezmvp said:

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The Debt said:

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ATX_AG_08 said:

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The feint worked.

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If it crystallized ukr forces in the north while major operations moved to the east, how can you claim otherwise?

The US spent a decade in Iraq and failed to demilitarize the insurgency. Russia kept the Ukrainians in front of them instead of "shock and awe" and now Ukr is depleted.

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If it worked for now, tactical victory but strategic loss. 20 years plus of set back and absolutely wrecked a ton of equipment and men. Ukraine will be hurt worse but will have more resources to draw from to rebuild and rearm.

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Russia will be fine. They have secured the EEZs in the black sea, they have blown up the dam keeping potable water away from crimea. At the end of the day if Russia ends up with the dnieper, they are pretty damn satisfied with the operation.

Poland has effectively dissolved their border with ukraine. So wtf is Ukraine going to look like in 2026?

You claim they can rebuild and rearm, but they lost half their country, they lost the river to irrigate their wheat, they lost the black sea oil. They will be fully dependent on the EU and NATO for perpetuity. That's not strength, that's a liability.

Also you have to remember ukr forcibly conscripted every male in the first week. There is no pool of men to rebuild that arent already on the playing field.

Sure there were those that fled and made it passed the military, but many of those were politically opposed to Zelensky to begin with. Returning to a post war Ukraine would be quite unpleasant for them politically.

I am not sure of the current estimated losses of the Russians but lets say at the end it is 50,000 dead and ~150,000 injured. I have seen a few reports of over 900,000 Uke citizens taken to Russia which is a huge jump in their dying labor force. On top of that if Russia is able to keep the area south and east of Kherson they gain a lot of resources. Russia can can less about their soldiers, they want the resources.

Sad to say but as of today Russia is winning the war and will get what they wanted.

P.U.T.U said:

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I am not sure of the current estimated losses of the Russians but lets say at the end it is 50,000 dead and ~150,000 injured. I have seen a few reports of over 900,000 Uke citizens taken to Russia which is a huge jump in their dying labor force. On top of that if Russia is able to keep the area south and east of Kherson they gain a lot of resources. Russia can can less about their soldiers, they want the resources.

Sad to say but as of today Russia is winning the war and will get what they wanted.

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I don't buy into the idea of using enslaved Ukrainians for labor in Russia. These are not Volga Germans or Crimean Tatars who no longer had a homeland. Ukraine will still exist along with a modern and active spy network it seems. Having 900,000 potential saboteurs in your home areas seems to be a very short sighted strategy.

I wonder what Putin's endgame is?

If Ukraine agrees to a cease fire with Russia keeping it's new territory, are they expecting all sanctions to end and simply reverse back to normal? I can't imagine anyone is going to buy that idea. Although there are several countries who are so screwed up and dependent on RU oil/gas (GERMANY), maybe they will.

EU just decided to cut 2/3 of Russian energy imports...but how long will that last.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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I wonder what Putin's endgame is?

If Ukraine agrees to a cease fire with Russia keeping it's new territory, are they expecting all sanctions to end and simply reverse back to normal? I can't imagine anyone is going to buy that idea. Although there are several countries who are so screwed up and dependent on RU oil/gas (GERMANY), maybe they will.

EU just decided to cut 2/3 of Russian energy imports...but how long will that last.

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I hate to inform you of this but China has already agreed to buy every drop of oil that the EU is turning away.

Russia, along with the new black sea eez's, now has the most energy in Eurasia. And china has pulled them into their sphere, whereas we (us/eu) have pushed them out. They have no reason to deal with the EU anymore, except when they come knocking for wheat.

Yup, a second pipeline is in progress to get even more fuel from Russia to China

Sounds like they're being reduced to a North Korea with oil. I'm sure that will work out for them well long term.

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Sounds like they're being reduced to a North Korea with oil. I'm sure that will work out for them well long term.

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Because they dont have the golden arches anymore? You realize they just rebranded all these businesses...

Unlike NorKor who hasnt been modernized, Russia already had plenty of new shiny stuff. Now they get their tech and supplies from China...Russia isn't missing anything. They wont become some 3rd world shtthole because we refuse to sell them...sht what do WE make again? Planes and corn.

Oh that's right, we make tech, tech that China replicates.

We and European countries make a lot of high precision equipment that China doesn't. The kind of equipment used to make other equipment that makes things. There are a lot of things they need industrially that China cannot provide.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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We and European countries make a lot of high precision equipment that China doesn't. The kind of equipment used to make other equipment that makes things. There are a lot of things they need industrially that China cannot provide.

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Correct.

Georgetown recently did a study of China's own self identified tech manufacturing challenges. They are significant, and domestic PRC industry doesn't trust their compatriots due to quality control issues.

https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chokepoints/

It's not even just the equipment but the consumables like bits and abrasives for high precision cutting and polishing. In highly automated processes making highly precise parts, you need cutting and abrasive surfaces that don't wear and throw off your finished dimensions across a number of pieces. A worn bit is a) ever so slightly smaller than new and b) increase friction with the piece, potentially leading to expansion and dimensions errors because the piece was shrank when it comes after cutting. It may also not be flat and leave an imperfect surface.

China can put together cheap consumable crap, but they lack a lot of the equipment and knowledge to produce much that requires extreme precision and accuracy. It's one thing to make a jet engine, but it's another thing to make the equipment to repeatedly make a jet engine.

Which is why China wants Taiwan back and why they cannot Putin-steamroll their way in. Destroying everything is too costly.

The entire debate around wether or not China can get Taiwan got upended in March.

The alliance networks economic sanctions on Russia causes some real concern…

The question now comes down to:

Is Taiwan worth imploding your entire economy?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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It's not even just the equipment but the consumables like bits and abrasives for high precision cutting and polishing. In highly automated processes making highly precise parts, you need cutting and abrasive surfaces that don't wear and throw off your finished dimensions across a number of pieces. A worn bit is a) ever so slightly smaller than new and b) increase friction with the piece, potentially leading to expansion and dimensions errors because the piece was shrank when it comes after cutting. It may also not be flat and leave an imperfect surface.

China can put together cheap consumable crap, but they lack a lot of the equipment and knowledge to produce much that requires extreme precision and accuracy. It's one thing to make a jet engine, but it's another thing to make the equipment to repeatedly make a jet engine.

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Considering they have the largest economy in the world and they have most of our phds in their pockets I would say there is about 50-70% chance they have military factories and facilities that do precisely what you claim.

I'm not so sure, there are cultural issues that hinder them as well.

Russia may be doing that over Ukraine. The big bet being once the special operation is over the weak EU nations will capitulate and return to normal economic trading. If the sanctions remain in place, who knows what may happen.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Russia may be doing that over Ukraine. The big bet being once the special operation is over the weak EU nations will capitulate and return to normal economic trading. If the sanctions remain in place, who knows what may happen.

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The cost for EU to normalize trade will be greater than they imagine.

The Debt said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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Russia may be doing that over Ukraine. The big bet being once the special operation is over the weak EU nations will capitulate and return to normal economic trading. If the sanctions remain in place, who knows what may happen.

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The cost for EU to normalize trade will be greater than they imagine.

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Start a war , show the world your army is incompetent, suffer over 20k causalities , make life miserable for your citizens..

Seems a long way to go to increase oil exports

It's not too bad for us either as we're approving more LNG export facilities to export to Europe. Despite trying to go green, they're going to need gas for the foreseeable future and having diversification is essential after the recent events with Russia.

If the Europeans are smart (a stretch I know) they will add some nuclear generation after all this.

The Debt said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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It's not even just the equipment but the consumables like bits and abrasives for high precision cutting and polishing. In highly automated processes making highly precise parts, you need cutting and abrasive surfaces that don't wear and throw off your finished dimensions across a number of pieces. A worn bit is a) ever so slightly smaller than new and b) increase friction with the piece, potentially leading to expansion and dimensions errors because the piece was shrank when it comes after cutting. It may also not be flat and leave an imperfect surface.

China can put together cheap consumable crap, but they lack a lot of the equipment and knowledge to produce much that requires extreme precision and accuracy. It's one thing to make a jet engine, but it's another thing to make the equipment to repeatedly make a jet engine.

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Considering they have the largest economy in the world and they have most of our phds in their pockets I would say there is about 50-70% chance they have military factories and facilities that do precisely what you claim.

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"Here, let me speculate based on my own speculation."

The Debt said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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Russia may be doing that over Ukraine. The big bet being once the special operation is over the weak EU nations will capitulate and return to normal economic trading. If the sanctions remain in place, who knows what may happen.

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The cost for EU to normalize trade will be greater than they imagine.

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**** you're annoying. They may be making bucks, but they are being starved of tech. The big question is how will they replace their losses. And the US has the biggest stick to say if you do deals with Russia, you wont deal in the US.

RU economy is tiny compared to US. And this includes Europe, pick a side. There are only a very few economies able to buy expensive goods. Most advanced nations are in a demographic decline. And they know it.

China/india/russo alliance is forming and you admit the "advanced nations" are in decline.

Put 2 and 2 together.

China and Russia are likely in the worst demographic situations compared to any other industrial nations.

Zobel said:

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China and Russia are likely in the worst demographic situations compared to any other industrial nations.

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Japan is in pretty dire straits.

Yes... yet Russian population peaked in the 90s, and China likely in early 2000s vs Japan in the 2010s. Tallest midget.

Wake me when China starts declining in population. The moment they decide they can expand geopolitically you will see a change in trajectory and not to our benefit. China growth in population, as you stated, is limited recently, this is a not a consequence of economic advancement as so many economic dullards try to claim. Rather it's a consequence of public policy and culture.

China has to figure out how to feed 1.4B mouths. Thus their primary protein is swine, which has the best feed to protein ratio of any animal. To add "200mil" people to the population would require almost a half a billion more head of pig to their industrial farms.

As for culture, the chinese are very adaptable to government edicts, as are most asian countries. Asian countries had the highest mask compliance in the world. So when chairman Xi says have 4 children instead of 2, they will.

Whatever this is, I am gladly not with these people