***** OFFICIAL Russia v. Ukraine *****

1,106,235 Views | 10330 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by TRM
Ag97
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AG
I don't see Ukraine backing down as long as they have weaponry to keep killing Russians. They are pissed and rightfully so. I don't think Russia is killing them off efficiently enough to break them. Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, I don't see Ukrainians leaving it at that. If they aren't formally at war with Russia, they will have a ton of citizens crossing into the captured territories stirring up trouble till it all kicks off again.

I think the only way this thing stops is if one or the other taps out and says they have had enough. My money is on the Ukrainians and their willingness to bleed more than the Russians.
aggiehawg
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AG
Ag97 said:

I don't see Ukraine backing down as long as they have weaponry to keep killing Russians. They are pissed and rightfully so. I don't think Russia is killing them off efficiently enough to break them. Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, I don't see Ukrainians leaving it at that. If they aren't formally at war with Russia, they will have a ton of citizens crossing into the captured territories stirring up trouble till it all kicks off again.

I think the only way this thing stops is if one or the other taps out and says they have had enough. My money is on the Ukrainians and their willingness to bleed more than the Russians.
Their very existence is at stake. Not just as a country but as a people.
Rossticus
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torrid said:

So how does anyone see this ending? Here are my thoughts.

Russia eventually gets enough of its **** together to take full control of the areas in eastern Ukraine that they really want. An informal ceasefire of some sort is arranged, one that allows Russia to stop bleeding and Ukraine to not look like it has completely given up territory.

Tons and tons of Western arms, more than you are seeing now, then start to flow into Ukraine. Maybe even some new type of Berlin wall separating eastern Ukraine?


No. Because that equates to Ukraine ceding their Agricultural, Industrial, and shipping abilities to Russia and leaving themselves for dead on the doorstep of Europe as a landlocked country with no means of sustaining themselves. Putin has stated outright that there will be no diplomatic end that doesn't result in him gaining full control of those areas. So even if he tries to pull off a ceasefire and claim ownership of what he's thieved, I think Ukraine keeps fighting. If Ukraine were accepting of those terms then they would have accepted them at the beginning of the war. Putin's demands haven't changed.
The Debt
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Rossticus said:

torrid said:

So how does anyone see this ending? Here are my thoughts.

Russia eventually gets enough of its **** together to take full control of the areas in eastern Ukraine that they really want. An informal ceasefire of some sort is arranged, one that allows Russia to stop bleeding and Ukraine to not look like it has completely given up territory.

Tons and tons of Western arms, more than you are seeing now, then start to flow into Ukraine. Maybe even some new type of Berlin wall separating eastern Ukraine?


No. Because that equates to Ukraine ceding their Agricultural, Industrial, and shipping abilities to Russia and leaving themselves for dead on the doorstep of Europe as a landlocked country with no means of sustaining themselves. Putin has stated outright that there will be no diplomatic end that doesn't result in him gaining full control of those areas. So even if he tries to pull off a ceasefire and claim ownership of what he's thieved, I think Ukraine keeps fighting. If Ukraine were accepting of those terms then they would have accepted them at the beginning of the war. Putin's demands haven't changed.

Is that how you think war and diplomacy works?

Really?
The Debt
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aggiehawg said:

Ag97 said:

I don't see Ukraine backing down as long as they have weaponry to keep killing Russians. They are pissed and rightfully so. I don't think Russia is killing them off efficiently enough to break them. Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, I don't see Ukrainians leaving it at that. If they aren't formally at war with Russia, they will have a ton of citizens crossing into the captured territories stirring up trouble till it all kicks off again.

I think the only way this thing stops is if one or the other taps out and says they have had enough. My money is on the Ukrainians and their willingness to bleed more than the Russians.
Their very existence is at stake. Not just as a country but as a people.
Are you claiming genocide is the goal of Moscow?
aggiehawg
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AG
Quote:

Are you claiming genocide is the goal of Moscow?
I'm not. The leaders of the Russian Orthodox Church and Putin's Pundits on state run TV are. Putin's statements on the subject are not far behind.
Who?mikejones!
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The Debt said:

aggiehawg said:

Ag97 said:

I don't see Ukraine backing down as long as they have weaponry to keep killing Russians. They are pissed and rightfully so. I don't think Russia is killing them off efficiently enough to break them. Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, I don't see Ukrainians leaving it at that. If they aren't formally at war with Russia, they will have a ton of citizens crossing into the captured territories stirring up trouble till it all kicks off again.

I think the only way this thing stops is if one or the other taps out and says they have had enough. My money is on the Ukrainians and their willingness to bleed more than the Russians.
Their very existence is at stake. Not just as a country but as a people.
Are you claiming genocide is the goal of Moscow?


Yes and as much as been said by some Russians. If not actual genocide, then certainly ukrainian cultural genocide is a goal of russia.
The Debt
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Link.
Rossticus
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Not for Russia, no, as they're imperialist aggro imbeciles with a tiny peepee complex. For Russia, diplomacy doesn't equate to good faith negotiation, as it does for those with a fully formed frontal lobe. But they don't have the leverage to secure what they want yet will self immolate in their continued evil attempt. Regardless, they've sealed their pathetic, disgusting, well earned fate.
Rossticus
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The Debt said:

Link.


It's all over the internet and has repeatedly been posted on this and the other thread. Go find it. Start with Russian TV. The two twits Simonyan and Solovyov should give you a jumping off point. Then there's Prosveshcheniye'a impending erasure of hints of Ukrainian existence from what they publish. They're a large publisher so likely one of the first, followed by most. There's the state sanctioned theft of agricultural commodities within occupied Ukraine, and shipping into Russia. There's the forced deportations of hundreds of thousands along with the forced adoptions of removed Ukrainian children by Russians while prohibiting any contact or monitoring by international human rights organizations.

So, like I said, there's your start. Come back if you need any more leads.
PA24
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AG
Russia wants a direct path to Crimea and to land lock Ukraine. If those goals are reached, Russia will control the mineral and farm rich areas as well as the coast of Ukraine.

Unlike USA, Russia will tame the area underneath their rule with cruelly and secrecy. They are ruthless and heartless but in the end, they will be forgiven and back to trading with the world. EU has a short memory.

Remember the red reset button Clinton used, yep…
The Debt
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Rossticus said:

Not for Russia, no, as they're imperialist aggro imbeciles with a tiny peepee complex. For Russia, diplomacy doesn't equate to good faith negotiation, as it does for those with a fully formed frontal lobe. But they don't have the leverage to secure what they want yet will self immolate in their continued evil attempt. Regardless, they've sealed their pathetic, disgusting, well earned fate.

Small pee pee....undeveloped brains...and sealed fate. Smells like weapons grade copium.

You seem to have very little insight into negotiations in general. On "february" you reject a proposition and that position is backed by a military, in "may" you no longer have a military, you have fewer cards on the table and your position is slipping day by day. The original proposition in February looks more and more feasible.

Your post seems to argue that one's position is detached from the real politik realities.

This
Vvvv

Will be the third time I've explained why eastern Europeans talk to their enemies while they have no intention to end a conflict. Americans are conditioned to believe that when you are at war, you cut off communication with the enemy. When communication is re-established the war is already decided. This is not how most the world works, it certainly isnt how eastern Europeans work.

War is an extension of politics and negotiations are subsumed under both. Everything is fluid. Positions change from day to day.

I cant tell you how many times in the Cold War Moscow agreed to something on Monday then by Wednesday they reneged. "Yes we agreed to that on Monday...and we meant it on Monday...but things have changed." The negotiations are not binding and that's not just the ruskies, ask poland if ukraine keeps their word. This is how they do politics over there. You can sit around daydreaming about russian wangs all day but it's clear you have no clear desire to know they enemy bc they are "evil" "pathetic" and "disgusting."
The Debt
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PA24 said:

Russia wants a direct path to Crimea and to land lock Ukraine. If those goals are reached, Russia will control the mineral and farm rich areas as well as the coast of Ukraine.

Unlike USA, Russia will tame the area underneath their rule with cruelly and secrecy. They are ruthless and heartless but in the end, they will be forgiven and back to trading with the world. EU has a short memory.

Remember the red reset button Clinton used, yep…

As I posted days ago, it's all about the EEZ in the black sea. Landlocking ukraine isnt the ends, its merely a result of the true goal: offshore fuels. Any coast you allow Ukraine to have includes 5 nautical miles of milkshake to drink...if you get that movie reference.
Rossticus
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The enemy is well known. They're not mysterious and they're not misunderstood. Their actions remain evil, pathetic, disgusting, and wholly unacceptable. Russia will gain nothing substantive from this stunt apart from the further economic degradation of its inept kleptocracy and rejection by most of the developed world.

And there's no copium involved. Russia is massively underperforming and they've done very little to indicate a drastic improvement.
The Debt
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Posted over a year ago

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/why-the-black-sea-could-emerge-as-the-worlds-next-great-energy-battleground/



Here are the natural oil slicks (underground seepages of oil)



The black sea is quite literally bubbling with the commodity that runs the world. You can see why NATO wants it. You can see why Russia wants it.

He who controls the spice controls the universe.


Unfortunately for Turkey most of the oil is in the north black sea. It would benefit them to play ball with Russia, but then again Turkey has been warming to russia since the coup attempt...which turkey believes was perpetrated by the CIA.
ATX_AG_08
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AG
Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.
ATX_AG_08
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AG
The Debt said:

Posted over a year ago

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/why-the-black-sea-could-emerge-as-the-worlds-next-great-energy-battleground/



Here are the natural oil slicks (underground seepages of oil)



The black sea is quite literally bubbling with the commodity that runs the world. You can see why NATO wants it. You can see why Russia wants it.

He who controls the spice controls the universe.


Unfortunately for Turkey most of the oil is in the north black sea. It would benefit them to play ball with Russia, but then again Turkey has been warming to russia since the coup attempt...which turkey believes was perpetrated by the CIA.
For the millionth time, Nato nor Ukraine invaded Russia.
Rossticus
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The Debt said:




The black sea is quite literally bubbling with the commodity that runs the world. You can see why NATO wants it. You can see why Russia wants it.

He who controls the spice controls the universe.


Unfortunately for Turkey most of the oil is in the north black sea. It would benefit them to play ball with Russia, but then again Turkey has been warming to russia since the coup attempt...which turkey believes was perpetrated by the CIA.


NATO, as an organization, is after Black Sea Oil. Mkay.
The Debt
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ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.
JJxvi
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AG
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3273984/replies/61544148

JJxvi said:

The real threat to Russia is not NATO but the European Union.

NATO is an uk/usa dominated defensive/peacekeeping alliance at its core.

The European Union is a potential territorial/sovereign entity that could one day claim hegemony over the entire continent. One of the ways such an entity comes to exist is through a decisive victory in war against a common enemy. This is the way many separate Austrian and Prussian aligned states were forged into "Germany" in the aftermath of Prussian victory in Paris.

Its also actually been tried to do exactly this two times before. Twice a "European Union" has invaded Russia seeking to decisively achieve that exact goal. Once by Napoleon and once by the Nazis.

It is neighboring country's ties with the EU that Russia can and should fear over NATO. The US and the UK are not interested in fighting Russia, only defending against them. However, one way for a "United States of Europe" to happen is for it to be declared in the midst of Victory from Red Square
Starting to wait for this to actually happen...
The Debt
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Quote:

For the millionth time, Nato nor Ukraine invaded Russia.

Non sequitar. Any other fallacies you want to trot out?
ABATTBQ11
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AG
The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Russia wild have invaded Ukraine no matter what. Their "provocation" is nothing more than propaganda. They've made land grab after land grab for the past 20 years, and their m.o. is always the same. Fund and arm some border region separatist movement or declare "ethnic Russians" are being attacked, use that as an excuse to intervene, and take the land or install a puppet government.

The idea that anyone "provoked" Russia into invading a neighbor after building up hundreds of thousands of troops on their border for months with no response is laughable bull**** made up for suckers.
The Debt
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ABATTBQ11 said:

The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Russia wild have invaded Ukraine no matter what. Their "provocation" is nothing more than propaganda. They've made land grab after land grab for the past 20 years, and their m.o. is Anaya the same. Fund and arm some border region separatist movement or declare "ethnic Russians" are being attacked, use that as an excuse to intervene, and take the land or install a puppet government.

The idea that anyone "provoked" Russia into invading a neighbor after building up hundreds of thousands of troops on their border for months with no response is laughable bull**** made up for suckers.

Perhaps. And if the playbook is that obvious how do you counter it?

It seems like if you know your opponents moves before he makes them, you would have an effective counter punch or at least a plan. Unless perhaps you just shrug your shoulders.
J. Walter Weatherman
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The Debt said:

Quote:

For the millionth time, Nato nor Ukraine invaded Russia.

Non sequitar. Any other fallacies you want to trot out?


Clearly, just by existing next door, Ukraine invited Russia to invade them.
Who?mikejones!
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

The Debt said:

Quote:

For the millionth time, Nato nor Ukraine invaded Russia.

Non sequitar. Any other fallacies you want to trot out?


Clearly, just by existing next door, Ukraine invited Russia to invade them.


It's also not a fallacy. It's a material fact. Not only did they not invade, there was a 0.0% chance of them ever invading russia
Rossticus
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The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Countries wanting to protect their sovereignty by joining a strictly defensive (and rather weak at that) alliance so as to preclude Russia's ability to forcibly re-annex them or undermine their political processes as it has done in other neighboring countries throughout history does not constitute a provocation.

Even if it does in the pea brains of Russian politicians and propagandists, that neither legitimizes it nor does it entitle Russia to accommodation or consideration in the course of the sovereign affairs of others. Russia is not entitled to control over sovereign states nor is that lack of control a threat to its security, within reality.
The Debt
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Agthatbuilds said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

The Debt said:

Quote:

For the millionth time, Nato nor Ukraine invaded Russia.

Non sequitar. Any other fallacies you want to trot out?


Clearly, just by existing next door, Ukraine invited Russia to invade them.


It's also not a fallacy. It's a material fact. Not only did they not invade, there was a 0.0% chance of them ever invading russia

I guess you dont understand what a non sequitar is. You are drawing conclusions and making arguements apart from what is asserted.

Who the hell said Ukraine was going to invade russia? Like scroll up and quote it for me.

Because each of the "million times" you say it wasnt going to happen, you claim like that argument was on the table.
Rossticus
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Russia said that Ukraine was going to invade it. In 2021 and again this year, as they continue to spin various odd threads of justification.
J. Walter Weatherman
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The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Your quote here is clearly implying you think NATO/Ukraine somehow provoked an invasion.
The Debt
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Rossticus said:

The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Countries wanting to protect their sovereignty by joining a strictly defensive (and rather weak at that) alliance so as to preclude Russia's ability to forcibly re-annex them or undermine their political processes as it has done in other neighboring countries throughout history does not constitute a provocation.

Even if it does in the pea brains of Russian politicians and propagandists, that neither legitimizes it nor does it entitle Russia to accommodation or consideration in the course of the sovereign affairs of others. Russia is not entitled to control over sovereign states nor is that lack of control a threat to its security, within reality.


You missed the part where the "strictly defensive" pact can park missiles mere kilometers away from Moscow. The "strictly defensive" pact supplies Ukraine with vertically integrated military systems from command and control to weapons training and arms.

You have to be naive to think it's all so innocent. NATO and Ukraine were just doing over the pants stuff.
ABATTBQ11
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AG
The Debt said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Russia wild have invaded Ukraine no matter what. Their "provocation" is nothing more than propaganda. They've made land grab after land grab for the past 20 years, and their m.o. is Anaya the same. Fund and arm some border region separatist movement or declare "ethnic Russians" are being attacked, use that as an excuse to intervene, and take the land or install a puppet government.

The idea that anyone "provoked" Russia into invading a neighbor after building up hundreds of thousands of troops on their border for months with no response is laughable bull**** made up for suckers.

Perhaps. And if the playbook is that obvious how do you counter it?

It seems like if you know your opponents moves before he makes them, you would have an effective counter punch or at least a plan. Unless perhaps you just shrug your shoulders.


Well for one you ignore the, "But they were provoked!" BS and give anyone buying into it the crap they deserve.

For two, do exactly what Ukraine is doing and kill as many of them as possible. They've learned their lesson since 2014, though a little later than they should have. They're killing Russians and bleeding them dry, so the next time they think expansionism is a good idea they'll have to consider there being a real cost. Or you potentially destroy their ability to wage war at all.

And internationally you sanction the **** out of them. Keep supply chain sanctions that prevent equipment manufacturing permanently. Destroy their ability to even recover and rebuild militarily.


It would have been better if EU or NATO troops had been stained in Ukraine. I don't think Russia invades in that instance because the cost/benefit calculation is changed. Don't even start with the, "But that would provoke them," BS because they invaded anyway. They were going to all along. Its not like this was some last minute, do or die decision. Russia had been making strategic moves to make this a reality since 2018. That's when they started their foreign currency buys and other moves to weather potential sanctions. Nordstream 2, getting Germany hooked on gas, and getting sympathetic figures in the German government to sabotage or undermine EU efforts to stop an invasion were also started years ago. Don't pretend this is some recent development.
black_ice
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The Debt said:

Rossticus said:

The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Countries wanting to protect their sovereignty by joining a strictly defensive (and rather weak at that) alliance so as to preclude Russia's ability to forcibly re-annex them or undermine their political processes as it has done in other neighboring countries throughout history does not constitute a provocation.

Even if it does in the pea brains of Russian politicians and propagandists, that neither legitimizes it nor does it entitle Russia to accommodation or consideration in the course of the sovereign affairs of others. Russia is not entitled to control over sovereign states nor is that lack of control a threat to its security, within reality.


You missed the part where the "strictly defensive" pact can park missiles mere kilometers away from Moscow. The "strictly defensive" pact supplies Ukraine with vertically integrated military systems from command and control to weapons training and arms.

You have to be naive to think it's all so innocent. NATO and Ukraine were just doing over the pants stuff.


Very interesting indeed.
ABATTBQ11
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AG
Can, but haven't and don't need to. It's not like a bunch of NATO countries don't have SLBM's and we don't have ICBM's and strategic nuclear bombers capable of targeting Moscow and every other system city.

Your "gotcha" is totally irrelevant.
The Debt
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Your quote here is clearly implying you think NATO/Ukraine somehow provoked an invasion.

They changed the status quo. Had they kept the status quo oil would be flowing west and we would be talking about global recovery after covid.

But since the coup in 2014, but since the talks of bringing ukr into nato, there have been plenty of attempts to keep the old order of things. Full disclosure, the black sea oil discoveries are pretty dang recent. Like last 5 years, recent.

Now there is super incentive for NATO (think EU, ms maddow) to secure those sources. Why they want to press membership for ukraine is their calculus.

But as I said in the quote you brought forth, russia is primarily culpable for it. You have the "why"; it was a race to secure this before the west did. And the west certainly wanted to, whether Maddow admits it or not.
Rossticus
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The Debt said:

Rossticus said:

The Debt said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Ukraine wants to keep their land and natural resources? How dare they.

Nice strawman.

I'm telling you what's at stake. If NATO kept their word and refused to move east, or if ukraine stayed neutral, both nato and ukraine would be making money from these resources. That is not to excuse russian involvement. But let's not kid ourselves, this is an abstraction above the popular narrative.

This "unprovoked" invasion.


Countries wanting to protect their sovereignty by joining a strictly defensive (and rather weak at that) alliance so as to preclude Russia's ability to forcibly re-annex them or undermine their political processes as it has done in other neighboring countries throughout history does not constitute a provocation.

Even if it does in the pea brains of Russian politicians and propagandists, that neither legitimizes it nor does it entitle Russia to accommodation or consideration in the course of the sovereign affairs of others. Russia is not entitled to control over sovereign states nor is that lack of control a threat to its security, within reality.


You missed the part where the "strictly defensive" pact can park missiles mere kilometers away from Moscow. The "strictly defensive" pact supplies Ukraine with vertically integrated military systems from command and control to weapons training and arms.

You have to be naive to think it's all so innocent. NATO and Ukraine were just doing over the pants stuff.


NATO membership neither necessitates nor precludes member nations from making individual defense decisions. If NATO were providing assistance to Ukraine then Hungary would be involved as well as other nations. There are no requirements via NATO. All assistance provided to Ukraine is done so, or not, individually by each nation just like there are non-member nations providing assistance.

Additionally, NATO has not parked anything "mere kilometers" from Moscow that don't belong to respective member nations that exist at its borders. Anything that's there now would have been there despite membership in NATO.

And, yeah, you can't reeeeeeeee over extra-NATO allied assistance to Ukraine when Russia initiated the invasion. Nothing entitles Russia to a free pass when it tries to take over another country. By definition, every act by Ukraine or it's allies is necessarily defensive because it is defending its sovereign territory from an offensive invasion.

Every point you tried to make is invalid. Nice.
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